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三全食品(002216):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:业绩承压,期待后续盈利改善
EBSCN· 2025-04-30 06:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [6][14]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.632 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 542 million yuan, down 27.64% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a total revenue of 2.218 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, down 9.22% year-on-year [1][4]. - The traditional rice and noodle product segment faced revenue pressure in 2024, while the B-end market showed relative strength. The retail market (C-end) was weak, with revenue down 8.10%, while the catering market (B-end) saw a slight increase of 1.06% [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 24.22%, down 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense price competition in the industry. The net profit margin for 2024 was 8.18%, down 2.44 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.632 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 542 million yuan, down 27.64% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a total revenue of 2.218 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 209 million yuan, down 9.22% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 48.64% [1]. Market Segmentation - In 2024, revenue from the retail market was 5.119 billion yuan, down 8.10%, while the catering market generated 1.445 billion yuan, up 1.06%. The B-end market showed stronger performance, particularly among large clients [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.22%, down from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 8.18%, reflecting the impact of competitive pricing strategies [3][12]. - The company’s operating expenses increased, with a sales expense ratio of 12.88% in 2024, up from the previous year, primarily due to increased promotional costs [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to 567 million yuan and 605 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 35.0% and 37.4% from previous estimates. The report anticipates an EPS of 0.65 yuan for 2025 and 0.69 yuan for 2026 [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18 for 2025, indicating a valuation that reflects the company's expected earnings growth [4][12].