Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food (603345.SH) shows stable fundamentals despite stock price adjustments, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market presence in the frozen food industry [3][24]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue reached 11.4 billion, a slight increase of 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a continued slowdown [4]. - Net profit was 949 million, down 9.35% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit decline of 13.36%, primarily due to rising raw material costs and increased operational expenses [6]. - The gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points compared to the previous year [7]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 3.77 billion, up 6.61% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 11.80% to 270 million [10]. Industry Growth and Trends - The frozen food industry in China is projected to reach a scale of approximately 221.2 billion RMB in 2024, making it the second largest globally, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% expected from 2024 to 2029 [12]. - The demand for standardized ingredients is expected to rise due to the low chain restaurant penetration in China, which is only half of that in mature markets [14]. - The per capita consumption of frozen food in China is only 10.0 kg, significantly lower than in the US (62.2 kg) and Japan (25.3 kg), indicating substantial growth potential [14]. Business Strategy - Anjiu Food employs a "three-pronged approach" focusing on frozen prepared foods, frozen dishes, and frozen noodle products, with a particular emphasis on the rapidly growing frozen dish segment [16]. - The company has developed a "big single product" strategy, focusing on 3-5 strategic products each year, with 39 products generating over 100 million in annual revenue, including 4 products exceeding 500 million [17][26]. - The company has established 12 production bases nationwide, achieving a capacity utilization rate of 92.24% in 2022, and is planning to launch new projects in 2024 [18]. Market Expansion and Innovation - Anjiu Food is accelerating its internationalization and capital operations, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2025, becoming the first A+H listed frozen food company in China [24]. - The company is entering the frozen baking sector, having acquired stakes in Jiangsu Dingwei and Dingyifeng, and plans to invest 361 million in a new baking project [25]. - The company is also enhancing its product offerings, with the launch of the "Meat More Grilled Sausage Series" in 2025 [26]. Shareholder Dynamics - In 2023, the company experienced a change in actual control, with the new controllers promising not to reduce their holdings within 18 months [27]. - Prior to this change, the former controlling shareholder reduced their stake by 5% over four months, raising nearly 2.3 billion [27].

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% and a total market capitalization of 27.27 billion yuan, while the company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 4.76% [1] Company Overview - Anjiu Food Group Co., Ltd. is based in Xiamen, Fujian Province, and was established on December 24, 2001, with its listing date on February 22, 2017. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of frozen foods, including products like fish tofu, fish balls, and various frozen dishes [2] - The revenue composition of Anjiu Food includes 49.43% from frozen prepared foods, 31.77% from frozen dishes, 16.32% from frozen noodle and rice products, and 2.38% from agricultural products and others [2] Financial Performance - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Anjiu Food reached 63,200, an increase of 78.56%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 43.98%. For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million yuan, a decrease of 9.35% [3] - Anjiu Food has distributed a total of 3.219 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.521 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [4] Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 5.401 million shares, a decrease of 6.5391 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Zhonggeng Value Pioneer Stock and the South China Securities 500 ETF, which has exited the top ten circulating shareholders list [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company has shown a turning point in performance with a positive contribution from the consolidation of Dingwei Thai, leading to a recovery in its main business [1][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 11.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.95 billion yuan, down 9.3% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%, with Dingwei Thai contributing 0.16 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: - Frozen prepared foods: 5.67 billion yuan (+0.7%) - Frozen dishes: 3.64 billion yuan (+9.2%) - Frozen noodles and rice products: 1.73 billion yuan (-5.4%) - Agricultural products and others: 0.29 billion yuan (+8.2%) - Bakery products: 0.03 billion yuan (not comparable) - Other foods: 0.01 billion yuan (-39.0%) [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue from these categories was: - Frozen prepared foods: 1.91 billion yuan (+6.4%) - Frozen dishes: 1.23 billion yuan (+8.8%) - Frozen noodles and rice products: 0.48 billion yuan (-9.1%) - Agricultural products and others: 0.11 billion yuan (+38.8%) - Bakery products: 0.03 billion yuan (not comparable) - Other foods: 0.01 billion yuan (+632.4%) [2] Sales Model Analysis - Revenue by sales model for the first three quarters of 2025 was: - Distributors: 9.00 billion yuan (-1.0%) - Direct sales: 0.87 billion yuan (+23.5%) - New retail and e-commerce: 0.85 billion yuan (+25.9%) - Supermarkets: 0.64 billion yuan (+6.7%) [3] - In Q3 2025, revenue by sales model was: - Distributors: 2.96 billion yuan (-0.6%) - Direct sales: 0.32 billion yuan (+68.1%) - New retail and e-commerce: 0.27 billion yuan (+38.1%) - Supermarkets: 0.22 billion yuan (+28.1%) [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points, while the net margin was 8.4%, down 1.2 percentage points [4] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved slightly to 20.0% (+0.1 percentage points), and the net margin increased to 7.3% (+0.3 percentage points) [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a positive trend in revenue for Q4 and 2026, with projected revenues of 15.78 billion yuan, 16.94 billion yuan, and 18.16 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 7.3%, and 7.2% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 1.39 billion yuan, 1.57 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 6.5% in 2025 followed by growth of 12.7% and 10.6% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [5]

Summary of Frozen Food Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The frozen food industry is gradually recovering after nearly two years of downturn, with leading companies significantly increasing their market share [1][12] - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, approximately between 16 to 18 times earnings, with specific companies like Anjuke having even lower valuations and a dividend yield close to 5% [12] Key Companies and Developments Babi Food - Babi Food has shown improvement since July 2025, with new store performance exceeding expectations [1][4] - The company plans to open 20 new stores in the Shanghai and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai regions by the end of 2025, aiming to accelerate store expansion by 2026 [1][4] - New store formats have significantly increased daily sales, with some locations achieving daily revenues of 19,000 to 20,000 yuan [4] Sanquan Food - Sanquan Food has faced significant revenue and profit pressures, particularly in its direct-to-consumer channels [5] - The company has adapted to the trend of customization in supermarkets, introducing a new management team and achieving over 50 million yuan in customized revenue in Q3 2025, with expectations for doubling in Q4 [5][6] - The B-end channel has maintained over 20% growth, while the small B channel is expected to recover in Q4 [5] Mountain Spring Food - Mountain Spring Food has innovated in its low-end product lines and introduced health-focused products in the tangyuan category, targeting younger consumers [7] - The company established a meat product division at the end of 2025, aiming to become the second-largest hot pot meat brand in the C-end market, with a goal of achieving billion-level single product sales [8] - The company has reduced online advertising costs, improving e-commerce profitability and expecting revenue to turn positive from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 [9][10] Anjuke Food - Anjuke Food's main business revenue has improved quarter-on-quarter, although its frozen prepared food segment saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.5% [11] - Despite this, the company has gained market share compared to competitors, with stable performance in new and secondary products and a gross margin maintained at around 50% [11] - Expectations for Q4 include continued single-digit revenue growth, with potential profit pressure due to high cost and last year's base [11] Market Dynamics - The demand for frozen food has shown signs of recovery, particularly in the C-end market, following a decline in June due to external events [2] - The competitive landscape has stabilized, with less aggressive price wars compared to the previous year, allowing for improved promotional strategies [2][3] - The overall outlook for the frozen food industry is positive, with potential catalysts from policy changes or recovery in dining demand, which could lead to valuation recovery and improved revenue and profit [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but net profit showed a modest increase, indicating a mixed performance amidst challenging market conditions [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 396 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.37% [4]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 1.432 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%, but net profit increased by 34.91% to 83 million [4]. Group 2: Revenue Channels - The revenue decline in Q3 2025 was less severe compared to Q2 2025, where it was down 4.39% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing of the revenue drop [5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its direct supermarket channels and has made organizational adjustments to support this strategy, expecting improvements in this area [5]. - The B-end restaurant market is seeing growth among large clients, while the small B-end is under pressure due to weak social dining demand [5]. Group 3: Cost Management - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 was 22.34%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.41 percentage points, but there is potential for stabilization as industry price competition eases [6]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 14.04%, down 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management and operational improvements [6]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 improved to 5.76%, a year-on-year increase of 1.57 percentage points, indicating successful expense optimization [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.77 billion yuan, up 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.27 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, revenue from various segments included: - Frozen prepared foods: 1.91 billion yuan (+6.4%) - Frozen dishes: 1.23 billion yuan (+8.8%) - Frozen rice and noodle products: 0.48 billion yuan (-9.1%) - Agricultural products and others: 0.11 billion yuan (+40.1%) [2] - The growth in the dish segment was driven by strong performance in products like shrimp and small fried meat, while the decline in rice and noodle products was attributed to intensified industry competition [2] Channel Performance - Revenue growth by channel in Q3 2025 was as follows: - Distributors: -0.6% - Supermarkets: +28.1% - Direct sales in special channels: +68.1% - New retail and e-commerce: +38.1% [2] - The strong performance in supermarkets and new retail channels was due to ongoing collaborations for customized products [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 20.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 20%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The sales expense ratio in Q3 2025 remained stable at 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, due to reduced advertising expenses [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong position in the industry, with expectations for growth driven by new channels and products [3] - The strategy includes focusing on high-quality products at competitive prices and expanding into new retail and e-commerce channels [3] - Anticipated demand recovery in Q4 2025, along with active collaborations with emerging channels, is expected to support continued performance growth [3] Earnings Forecast - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 4.29 yuan, 4.74 yuan, and 5.27 yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 17x, 15x, and 14x respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady growth in Q3 2025, reversing the downward trend observed in Q1 and Q2, with significant improvements in revenue and net profit [2][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 11.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 949 million, a decrease of 9.35% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded total revenue of 3.766 billion, up 6.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 273 million, an increase of 11.80% [1][2]. Product Category Performance - Revenue from various product categories for Q1-Q3 2025 includes: - Frozen prepared foods: 5.665 billion (+0.72%) - Frozen dishes: 3.643 billion (+9.19%) - Frozen noodles and rice products: 1.725 billion (-5.4%) - Agricultural products: 291 million (+8.2%) - Bakery products: 32 million (-) - Other income: 13 million (-38.97%) [2]. Channel Performance - Revenue by channel for Q1-Q3 2025 includes: - Distributors: 9.004 billion (-0.96%) - Direct sales: 872 million (+23.45%) - Supermarkets: 643 million (+6.74%) - New retail and e-commerce: 853 million (+25.87%) [2]. - In Q3 2025, the performance by channel shows: - Distributors: -0.58% - Direct sales: +68.09% - Supermarkets: +28.11% - New retail and e-commerce: +38.08% [2]. Profitability and Cost Control - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's gross margin and net margin were 20.34% and 8.36%, respectively, down 2.30 and 1.23 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin and net margin improved slightly to 19.99% and 7.31%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.05 and 0.35 percentage points [3]. - The company maintained a cost control strategy, with a total expense ratio of 9.25% for Q1-Q3 2025, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 16.029 billion, 17.325 billion, and 19.070 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and net profits of 1.400 billion, 1.479 billion, and 1.730 billion [4]. - The company is focusing on a customized strategy for supermarkets to enhance product quality and expand its market share [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of 69.83 yuan [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 37.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.61%, and a net profit of 2.73 billion yuan, up 11.80% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [3][6]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw total revenue of 113.71 billion yuan, a 2.66% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 9.35% to 9.49 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company has successfully managed costs, with a notable improvement in profitability in Q3, leading to a net profit margin of 7.31%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 13.98 billion yuan, 16.00 billion yuan, and 17.15 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20.34%, a decrease of approximately 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.36%, down 1.23 percentage points [6][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 4.19 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.6, 14.5, and 13.6 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][9]. Business Segment Performance - The company’s frozen prepared foods segment generated revenue of 56.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, while the frozen dishes segment saw a 9.19% increase to 36.43 billion yuan [6][7]. - The acquisition of 70% of Jiangsu Dingwei Tai Food Co., Ltd. contributed an additional 32.12 million yuan to the baking segment's revenue [6][7]. Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.2% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 8.9% [9]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to be 24.3% in 2025, indicating a stable financial structure [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company has shown stable recovery in operations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 11.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.35% to 949 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 3.766 billion yuan, up 6.61% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.80% to 273 million yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on new product development and channel expansion, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the future [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 15,127 million yuan, 15,706 million yuan, 16,981 million yuan, and 18,231 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 7.7%, 3.8%, 8.1%, and 7.4% [2]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 1,485 million yuan, 1,399 million yuan, 1,529 million yuan, and 1,679 million yuan, with growth rates of 0.5%, -5.8%, 9.3%, and 9.8% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.46 yuan, 4.20 yuan, 4.59 yuan, and 5.04 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2]. Operational Performance - The company’s main business remains stable, with a notable contribution from the integration of Dingwei Tai, which added approximately 150 million yuan to Q3 revenue. The revenue growth for various product categories in Q3 was as follows: frozen prepared foods +6.4%, frozen dishes +8.8%, and frozen noodles -9.1% [6]. - The company has also introduced a new baking product line, contributing around 32 million yuan in revenue in Q3 [6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 20.0%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points, attributed to a lower proportion of low-margin products [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in profitability, with Q3 revenue growth of 6.6% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the same period, indicating better-than-expected performance [7] - The report anticipates a decline in net profit for 2025, with projections of 1.428 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [5][7] - The company is expected to maintain a balanced development strategy focusing on both "BC" and "three-pronged" approaches, aiming for sustainable growth through product innovation and acquisitions [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 15.706 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.428 billion, with a corresponding earnings per share of 4.28 yuan [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 22.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.8% [5] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 11.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [7] Product and Regional Performance - In Q3, the company’s revenue from frozen prepared foods, dishes, and noodle products was 19 billion, 12.3 billion, and 4.84 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.4%, 8.8%, and a decline of 9.1% [7] - The company experienced a revenue increase in the South China region, while the East China market faced slight pressure [7] Margin and Cost Efficiency - The gross margin for Q3 was 20%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the sales and management expense ratios decreased, enhancing profitability [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 improved by 0.34 percentage points to 7.3% due to reduced expense ratios [7]