利率下行逻辑

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国泰海通·洞察价值|固收唐元懋团队
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-20 00:05
Core Viewpoint - The macro policy framework of "fiscal dominance, monetary coordination" is being established, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [3][8] - The marginal strength of micro entities in "pricing the economy" is limited, suggesting challenges in market pricing mechanisms [3][8] - The logic of long-term interest rates continuing to decline may have been shaken, indicating potential changes in the fixed income landscape [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Macro Policy Insights** - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by a fiscal-led approach with supportive monetary policy, which may influence future economic conditions [3] - **Market Dynamics** - There is a noted limitation in the ability of market participants to effectively price economic fundamentals, which could lead to mispricing in the fixed income market [3][8] - **Interest Rate Trends** - The prevailing trend of declining interest rates may face challenges, suggesting a potential shift in the long-term outlook for interest rates [3][8]