1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As of September 29, 2025, the total planned issuance of local government bonds in October is 540.6 billion yuan, with the proportions of new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, refinancing special bonds, and unclassified refinancing bonds being 6% (33.9 billion yuan), 10% (53.1 billion yuan), 68% (367.8 billion yuan), 11% (59.9 billion yuan), and 5% (25.9 billion yuan) respectively [1]. - In November, the total planned issuance of local government bonds is 299.4 billion yuan, with the proportions of new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, refinancing special bonds, and unclassified refinancing bonds being 3% (8.2 billion yuan), 26% (78.6 billion yuan), 39% (118 billion yuan), 31% (92.8 billion yuan), and 1% (1.8 billion yuan) respectively [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content October Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The top regions in terms of October local government bond issuance plans are Hubei (70.1 billion yuan), Hebei (53.4 billion yuan), Jiangxi (50 billion yuan), Xinjiang (48.8 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (43.5 billion yuan) [2]. - The top regions in terms of October new special bond issuance plans are Hubei (63.8 billion yuan), Hebei (484 billion yuan), Xinjiang (46.6 billion yuan), Jiangxi (36.3 billion yuan), and Shandong (33.2 billion yuan) [3]. November Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The November issuance plan shows that the proportions of different types of bonds are as follows: new general bonds 3% (8.2 billion yuan), refinancing general bonds 26% (78.6 billion yuan), new special bonds 39% (118 billion yuan), refinancing special bonds 31% (92.8 billion yuan), and unclassified refinancing bonds 1% (1.8 billion yuan) [3]. Fourth - Quarter Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The table provides detailed fourth - quarter local government bond issuance plans for each region, including the breakdown of different types of bonds such as new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates in September, the U.S. Treasury yields have risen for two consecutive weeks. The better - than - expected economic growth and employment data have reduced the need for the Fed to cut interest rates significantly and decreased market expectations for subsequent rate cuts, pushing up the U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. - The negotiation deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties over the government financing legislation draft may lead to a U.S. government shutdown in October. However, the market has largely priced in this situation, and the impact on the bond market is expected to be minor [1][3]. - Although the U.S. dollar risk - free rate continued to rise last week, Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds were still supported by the narrowing spread and showed general stability. In the on - shore market, due to the approaching National Day holiday and the end of the quarter, the pressure on inter - bank liquidity increased, pushing up short - term interest rates. After the National Day holiday, the pressure on inter - bank funds is expected to ease, which will drive down short - term Treasury yields [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Offshore Market - Last week, there were 6 new issuances of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds exceeding $100 million, totaling approximately $1.4 billion, mainly financial bonds and urban investment bonds. Offshore RMB bonds had new issuances of about RMB 61 billion, mainly driven by the issuance of RMB 60 billion central bank bills by the People's Bank of China [2]. - The 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury yields rose 5 and 7 basis points respectively to 4.18% and 3.64% last week. The U.S. second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarter final value increased by 3.8%, the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. As of the week ending September 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since July [2]. - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bond total return index fell slightly by 0.1% last week, with the spread narrowing by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.1%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index remained flat, and the spread was basically unchanged [3]. On - shore Market - Last week, the People's Bank of China net - withdrew short - term liquidity of RMB 822.3 billion through reverse repurchase maturities and net - injected long - term funds of RMB 30 billion through MLF renewals. The 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rate and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average rate rose 5 and 12 basis points respectively to 1.56% and 1.64%. The 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields rose 2 basis points and remained flat respectively at 1.54% and 1.88% [4]. Recent New Issuances of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar Bonds - Newly issued bonds include those from companies such as New Metro Global Limited, Longkou Urban Construction Investment and Development Co., Ltd., and Ping An Insurance Overseas (Holding) Company Limited, with different coupon rates, issuance amounts, and ratings [6]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar Bonds - The appendix provides detailed information on a large number of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds, including issuers, guarantors, coupon rates, issuance amounts, prices, ratings, etc. The issuers cover banks, state - owned enterprises, and urban investment companies [18][20].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 593 亿 ——政府债周报（9/28） 9 月 22 日-9 月 28 日地方债共发行 1960.51 亿元。其中新增债 1551.94 亿元（新增一般债 56.04 亿元，新增专项债 1495.90 亿元），再融资债 408.57 亿元（再融资一般债 58.27 亿元，再融 资专项债 350.30 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月 29 日-10 月 5 日地方债披露发行 1071.53 亿元。其中新增债 593.41 亿元（新增一般债 99.20 亿元，新增专项债 494.21 亿元），再融资债 478.11 亿元（再融资一般债 351.78 亿元， 再融资专项债 126.33 亿元）。 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on funds at the end of the quarter is relatively controllable, and the bond market may still fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to view the bond market as an oscillating range, control the duration, and allocate medium - and short - duration coupon varieties with anti - decline characteristics. Pay attention to changes in capital interest rates and institutional behavior on a daily basis and possible new policy catalysts during the week [2][22]. - The impact of the September 22nd State Council Information Office press conference is expected to be more moderate compared to the previous two. It is advisable to focus on some possible policy contents, such as the outlook for the "15th Five - Year" financial development, the introduction of incremental monetary and fiscal policies, the use of monetary policy tools like swaps for securities, funds, and insurance companies, the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, and statements regarding the RMB exchange rate [2][22]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the market sentiment fluctuated greatly due to the two - time issuance of national bonds. Yields first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The 10Y and 30Y national bond interest rates rose by 1bp and 2bp respectively. The impact of the September 22nd press conference is expected to be milder than the previous two, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][9][22]. - After the previous two press conferences with similar participants, the bond market first rose and then fell on the day, with the trading volume of 10Y national bond futures increasing. The stock market first soared and then declined intraday and then strengthened. After the conferences, the 10Y national bond interest rate first decreased slightly and then increased significantly, and the 10Y - 1Y national bond spread widened significantly [1][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation - The central bank had a net injection, but capital interest rates increased. From September 15th to 19th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 5923 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases is large, and the central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation and MLF roll - over are expected to support liquidity [24][25]. - R001 and DR001 increased by 10bp compared to September 12th, reaching 1.50% and 1.46% respectively. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance interest rate and the FR007 - 1Y swap interest rate first decreased and then increased. As of September 19th, the 3M national - owned and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount price was 1.25%, up 10bp from September 12th [25]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. Except for the 1Y and 20Y, the interest rates of other key - term national bonds increased. Except for the 5Y - 3Y and 10Y - 7Y, the spreads of other key - term national bonds widened. As of September 19th, the 10Y and 30Y national bond yields rose by 1bp and 2bp respectively compared to September 12th, reaching 1.88% and 2.20% [32]. - The negative spread between the new and old 10Y national bond coupons widened slightly during the week, the negative spread between the new and old 10Y national development bond coupons narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y national bond coupons narrowed [35]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - From September 15th to 19th, the median of the full - sample duration increased slightly, the median of the interest - rate bond fund duration first increased and then decreased, and the divergence continued to rise. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds declined, the 50Y - 30Y and 30Y - 10Y national bond spreads widened, the inter - bank leverage ratio remained at 107.3%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 122.8%. The implied tax rate of the 10 - year national development bond narrowed slightly [40]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. From September 15th to 19th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 504 billion yuan, a decrease of 66.2 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of national bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - based financial bonds increased [48]. - The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned positive, and the average issuance interest rate rose to 1.64%. From September 15th to 19th, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 984.4 billion yuan, a net financing of 177.6 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate was 1.64%, up 1.4bp from last week [53][54]. 3.3 Economic Data - In August, industrial added value and social retail sales declined marginally, and the decline in real estate investment continued to widen. Since September, second - hand housing transactions have strengthened, and the freight rate index has continued to decline marginally and is weak year - on - year [59][61]. - In terms of high - frequency data, new housing transactions have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, second - hand housing transactions in 13 cities have increased in both aspects, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities has decreased in both aspects. Automobile and movie consumption have strengthened, and export - related indicators have mixed performances. Industrial production has continued to improve marginally [61]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - US retail sales data in August were better than expected, and the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. Bond markets in the UK and France fell, while emerging markets rose more than they fell. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury spread widened [70][71]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > rebar > CSI 1000 > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > CSI 300 > Shanghai gold > Shanghai copper > convertible bonds > live pigs. The CSI 300 index weakened slightly this week [75]. 3.6 Policy Review - On September 19th, the State Council executive meeting discussed and passed the draft revision of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Banking Supervision and Administration and studied policies on domestic products in government procurement [79]. - On September 19th, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, and the two sides exchanged views on Sino - US relations and other issues. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [80]. - On September 19th, four departments issued a notice on further standardizing several issues in intellectual property asset evaluation. On the same day, Shanghai optimized and adjusted policies on individual housing property tax pilots [81][82]. - On September 16th, nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. On September 15th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice on deepening the reform of cross - border investment and financing foreign exchange management [82][83].

Core Viewpoint - The macro policy framework of "fiscal dominance, monetary coordination" is being established, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [3][8] - The marginal strength of micro entities in "pricing the economy" is limited, suggesting challenges in market pricing mechanisms [3][8] - The logic of long-term interest rates continuing to decline may have been shaken, indicating potential changes in the fixed income landscape [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Macro Policy Insights** - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by a fiscal-led approach with supportive monetary policy, which may influence future economic conditions [3] - **Market Dynamics** - There is a noted limitation in the ability of market participants to effectively price economic fundamentals, which could lead to mispricing in the fixed income market [3][8] - **Interest Rate Trends** - The prevailing trend of declining interest rates may face challenges, suggesting a potential shift in the long-term outlook for interest rates [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market maintains a volatile trend, with the key being the upper and lower limits of the range. For the 30Y Treasury bond rate, the current top position is not apparent, and the crucial factor is when the allocation buyers will enter the market [1][9]. - The ultra - long bonds lack the support of allocation buyers and it is difficult to resolve this issue in the short term. Meanwhile, the trading buyers still have the momentum and space to sell ultra - long bonds. The ultra - long bond rate is not at its peak, but it doesn't mean a bearish outlook [1][2][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Ultra - long bonds lack allocation buyers and it is difficult to solve in the short term 1.1 Old problems remain unsolved: The bond - buying efforts of city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and insurance companies have been continuously weak this year - City commercial banks and rural commercial banks: Their liability expansion has slowed down due to the migration of deposits to non - bank sectors. Many have OCI floating losses, and adjusting bond positions would turn floating losses into real losses, thus limiting their bond - buying space. Also, their business focus has shifted back to deposit and loan operations [10][13][19]. - Insurance companies: The expansion of their liability side has slowed down due to the reduction of the predetermined interest rate of insurance products. The investment income from the bond market may not cover their high - cost liabilities, making the equity market more attractive [21]. 1.2 New problems have emerged: The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds has increased, and the "interest rate risk" of large banks has been continuously accumulating - Bank book interest rate risk: It measures the risk that interest rate changes cause losses to the economic value and overall income of the bank book. Banks need to conduct regular stress tests, and systemically important banks' maximum economic value change loss in six scenarios cannot exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital [22]. - Reasons for concern this year: There is a resonance of greater supply pressure of ultra - long bonds, stronger selling pressure, and weak allocation buyers. The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds has been rapidly accumulating since the second half of last year, and the issuance rhythm has accelerated this year. At the same time, the selling pressure has concentratedly emerged this year [23]. - Reasons for large banks' bond - buying in the current spot data: Not all banks face interest rate risk problems; buying short - term bonds has little impact on interest rate risk indicators; some banks can still buy bonds as "market - makers" [28]. - Buying short - term bonds cannot hedge interest rate risk: It only affects the slope of the increase in interest rate risk, not the direction [3][35]. 1.3 Difficult to relieve in the short term: Discussion on three paths to relieve "interest rate risk" - Supply - side approach: Reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds is difficult because the government bond issuance plan is already determined and related to debt - resolution plans. The supply pressure of ultra - long bonds may persist until 2028 [36]. - Demand - side approach: Supplementing bank capital to improve the carrying capacity is not feasible in the short term, and it will further increase the bond market supply pressure [36]. - Monetary policy coordination approach: The central bank's purchase of bonds is mainly for "base money injection and liquidity management", so the purchase term may not be too long [37]. 2. Trading buyers still have the momentum and space to sell ultra - long bonds - Last week, funds net - sold 1128 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, including 357 billion yuan of bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, the fourth - highest weekly net - selling volume this year. The reasons include the release of the draft for comments on fee adjustment, which increased the concern of bond funds about redemptions; the risk accumulation caused by the duration - extension behavior at the end of August; and the asymmetric stock - bond linkage, which led to the successive selling of pure - bond funds and hybrid bond funds [38]. 3. The ultra - long bond rate is not at its peak, but it doesn't mean a bearish outlook - The bond market is still in a volatile range, but the upper limit of the interest - rate range has been extended. The extension is due to the expected redemptions of bond funds after the fund fee reform and the delayed entry of allocation buyers caused by the decline in the carrying capacity of large banks [43]. - The 10Y Treasury bond rate has no obvious resistance in the range of 1.80% - 1.90%, and the 30Y Treasury bond rate has no apparent top. When judging the allocation value of ultra - long bonds, the key is when the allocation buyers will enter the market [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 15th to September 21st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 18.8519 billion yuan, including 11.8538 billion yuan of new bonds (2.0715 billion yuan of new general bonds and 9.7823 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.9981 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.3888 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.6093 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From September 8th to September 14th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 30.1672 billion yuan, including 14.6601 billion yuan of new bonds (1.4732 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.1868 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 15.5072 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (8.7045 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 6.8026 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - As of September 14, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 102.7566 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 221.8079 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (12.7460 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (8.7087 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Local Debt Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 8th to September 14th, the net supply of local government bonds is 19.28 billion yuan; from September 15th to September 21st, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 3.09 billion yuan [14][17]. - **Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance**: In August, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds; in September, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][18]. Local Debt Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 77.18%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 75.83% [25]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of September 14 shows the net supply situation of refinancing bonds [25]. Special Debt Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions [29]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special new special bonds in 2023 - 2025 for various regions [32]. Local Debt Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: It shows the primary - secondary spread and regional secondary spread of local government bonds [36][37]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: It shows the investment direction of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment remains in a wait - and - see period, and it is still recommended to participate in ultra - long credit bonds cautiously [5][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Super - long Credit Bond Trading Sentiment 1.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond prices continued to decline this week. Although the bond market recovered during the week, the market sentiment towards ultra - long bonds remained cautious, and the yields of ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with yields of 2.4% - 2.5% increased significantly compared with last week [2][12][13]. 1.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds maintained low growth. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 6.25 billion, remaining at a low level. This might be because the issuance cost of long - term bonds was still relatively high, and bond - issuing entities were waiting for a better opportunity. Although the coupon rate of new ultra - long credit bonds decreased significantly in the latest week, the absolute value was still at a relatively high level within the year. Driven by the recovery sentiment and the reduction of available bond assets, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds rebounded this week [3][22]. 1.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The index price of ultra - long credit bonds did not recover. In the first half of the week, the bond market showed a slight recovery, and the weekly change rate of the over - 10 - year treasury bond index returned to positive, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds continued to fall. The over - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index decreased by 0.43% month - on - month [29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds further dried up this week. The number of transactions of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds dropped to 160, and the total number of transactions of over - 10 - year credit bonds was less than 30. In terms of transaction yields, the yield of over - 7 - year urban investment bonds recovered by more than 7bp, but the yield of ultra - long industrial bonds showed no obvious downward trend. The spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to 24.6bp [30]. - Corresponding to the rational return of selling sentiment, the amplitude of high - valuation transactions of ultra - long credit bonds began to narrow this week, and urban investment bonds over 20 years old shifted to low - valuation transactions. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded, but the reading of over - 10 - year bonds was still at a low point within the year [35]. - In terms of investor structure, the selling behavior of trading desks for ultra - long credit bonds continued. This week, funds still reduced their holdings of over - 7 - year credit bonds by 2 billion. For allocation desks such as insurance companies, although the承接 behavior continued, the intensity weakened. This week, the increase in holdings was concentrated in 7 - 10 - year varieties [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current economic fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, but the subsequent continuous implementation of growth - stabilizing policies will marginally be negative for the bond market [1][9]. - The central bank is expected to continue to support liquidity, keeping the overall capital situation stable, but it will also prevent capital idling [1][11]. - Some banks may have a need to raise the price of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs), and the capital movement of non - bank institutions may slow down marginally [2][13]. - The bond market is difficult to break out of the volatile trend. It is recommended to control the duration, seize the allocation and trading opportunities after adjustments, and focus on structural opportunities such as taxable bonds and new - old bonds [2][22]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 9 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Seize Structural Opportunities after Adjustments - **Fundamentals and Policies**: The current economic situation has difficulties and challenges, which are favorable for the bond market. However, the subsequent continuous implementation of growth - stabilizing policies such as "anti - involution", major infrastructure projects, and fertility subsidies will be marginally negative for the bond market [9]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank is expected to continue to support liquidity to maintain stable capital prices and prevent financial market risks. It may also provide long - term funds and take other measures, but will prevent capital idling [11]. - **Inter - bank CDs**: In September, banks' demand for supplementing liabilities through CDs increases, but the issuance demand may be weaker than the seasonal level. The price increase of CDs may be structural [13]. - **Non - bank Institutions' Capital Movement**: The risk premium of equities relative to treasury bonds has decreased, reducing the marginal attractiveness to insurance funds. The long - term and ultra - long - term treasury bond yields have higher cost - effectiveness compared to lending rates, increasing the marginal attractiveness to bank funds [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: The bond market is likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to control the duration, allocate medium - and short - term credit bonds, and seize opportunities after adjustments. Taxable bonds and new - old bonds have certain investment opportunities [22]. 3.2 August Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y treasury bond rate dropped 2bp to 1.69%. The market digested the impact of VAT adjustment, and the demand for old bonds increased. The capital was loose, and the issuance results of the first batch of taxed local bonds were better than expected [24]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y treasury bond rate rose 6bp to 1.75%. The market risk appetite increased, the equity market rose, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure [25]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y treasury bond rate rose 4bp to 1.78%. The stock - bond seesaw effect continued, and the bond market basically continued to decline. After the MLF was over - renewed, the capital pressure eased [26]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y treasury bond rate rose 6bp to 1.84%. The equity market was strong at the end of the month, the bond market yield fluctuated widely, and the curve steepened [27]. 3.2.2 Capital Situation - The central bank net - injected 5466 billion yuan through four major tools. The capital situation in August was reasonably abundant. The average monthly values of R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 decreased. The 3M inter - bank CD issuance rate fluctuated upward, and the 3M national - share bank bill rate changed in a complex way [28][31]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trends - In August, the bond market showed a bear - steep trend. Except for the 1y treasury bond rate, other key - term treasury bond rates rose. Most key - term treasury bond spreads widened [37]. 3.2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In August, the inter - bank leverage ratio and bond fund duration both decreased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds decreased, and the spreads of 50Y - 30Y and 20Y - 30Y treasury bonds narrowed [49]. 3.2.5 Bond Supply - In August, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same period last year. The net financing of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased. The net repayment of inter - bank CDs slightly expanded [56][64]. 3.3 Economic Data - In July, the decline in industrial enterprise profits continued to narrow. Since August, new - home sales and freight rates have been weak, while movie consumption has been relatively strong. Industrial production has weakened marginally [68]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US core inflation reached a new high since February. The Fed officials released signals of interest - rate cuts. In August, US bonds, as well as the bond markets in South Korea and Singapore, rose [78][79]. 3.5 Major Asset Performance - In August, the CSI 300 index strengthened significantly. The performance of major assets was: CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Convertible Bonds > Shanghai Gold > Shanghai Copper > Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds > China Bonds > US Dollar > Rebar > Live Pigs > Crude Oil [82]. 3.6 Policy Review - **August 28**: The "Opinions on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to achieve important progress in building modern people - centered cities by 2030 and basically complete the construction by 2035 [86]. - **August 27**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in the next month, focusing on policy promotion, key areas, and consumption scenarios [89]. - **August 26**: The "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative" was issued, setting goals for the development of artificial intelligence from 2027 to 2035 [90]. - **August 25**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund policies, and mortgage loan interest - rate mechanisms [91]. - **August 22**: The State Council emphasized the effectiveness of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies and the development of the sports industry [92]. - **August 20**: The "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction and Operation of Existing Government - Social Capital Cooperation Projects" was issued to ensure the construction of ongoing projects and the stable operation of existing projects [93]. - **August 19**: The People's Bank of China Shanghai Head Office called for greater efforts in financial reform and innovation and the implementation of monetary policies [94].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Since July, the long - end bond yields have risen and the yield curve has steepened. The adjustment of long - end rates is mainly due to the correction of deflation expectations, the rise of the stock market, and the improvement of market risk appetite. It is expected that when the 10 - year Treasury bond adjusts to around 1.80%, the bond market odds will be prominent, institutional trading willingness will increase, and the bond market may stabilize [8][17][29] Summary by Directory 1. Reasons for Recent Interest Rate Increases - The short - end interest rates have not changed significantly due to the continuous low - level of capital interest rates and the loose capital situation. Since April, the capital interest rate DR007 has continued to decline, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has also shown a downward trend. Since August, the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has been running in the low - level range of 1.60 - 1.65% [11] - The "anti - involution" policy has led to an increase in inflation expectations and raised the long - end interest rate center. After the relevant policies were introduced in July, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, etc. started "anti - involution" actions, which increased inflation expectations [14] - The continuous rise of the stock market has suppressed the bond market. Since July, the stock market has accelerated its rise, the market risk preference has increased, and the long - end bond market has been suppressed [16] 2. Assessment of Interest Rate Adjustment - From the perspective of stock - bond correlation, the negative correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and the 10Y Treasury bond yield is still strong. Since April this year, the negative correlation has been strong, and it is expected to remain so in the future, with the rise of equities continuing to suppress the bond market [19] - From the perspective of credit comparison, after the recent adjustment, as of August 15, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields have returned to a reasonable range compared with credit. The 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%, slightly higher than the actual income of the first - home mortgage, and the 30Y Treasury bond yield is 2.05%, higher than the actual income of the second - home mortgage [20] - From the perspective of term spreads, the long - end interest rates still have room to rise. In previous similar adjustment periods, the term spreads increased by 25BP and 27BP respectively. In this round, from April 29 to August 15, the 10Y - 1Y term spread has increased by 21BP, and there is still 5BP of upward space [24]