1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in the second quarter may continue to oscillate and recover. The term spread is expected to gradually decline, and the credit spread may fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to continue leveraging, selecting rides, and appropriately extending the duration. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to around 1.6% - 1.7% around the middle of the year [5][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 March Bond Market: Oscillation, Widened Term Spread, and Narrowed Credit Spread - In March, the long - term bonds oscillated and adjusted. The term spread widened, and the credit spread narrowed. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 4.2bps and 7.9bps respectively to 1.82% and 2.35%. The current 30 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond spread is as high as 113.1bps, and the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is 53.5bps, almost the highest level since 2023. Except for 3 - year and 5 - year Tier 2 capital bonds, the spreads between other credit bonds and the same - term China Development Bank bonds are basically around or within the 20th percentile since 2023 [1][9]. - The current bond market differentiation and the weak long - term bond situation are the result of multiple factors. Rising prices have led to market concerns about inflation pressure pushing up interest rates, which is more evident in long - term bonds. The short - end is relatively stable due to loose funds. The instability of long - term bonds has led institutions to shorten the duration, and the decrease in inter - bank deposit rates has made wealth management and money market funds increase bond allocation, reducing short - term credit rates [1][9]. 3.2 Fundamentals: Continued Stability with Increased K - shaped Differentiation - The Spring Festival factor has boosted the economic data from January to February to some extent, and the economy has basically remained stable. After excluding the Spring Festival factor, the real recovery momentum of the economic fundamentals has not significantly strengthened. The Spring Festival in 2026 was late, driving up data such as industrial added value and exports. The Spring Festival factor increased exports by 6.1 percentage points. In March, affected by the delayed resumption of work after the festival, relevant economic data may decline [2][13]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.4%, returning above the boom - bust line. There is a certain seasonality in the rebound, and the current level is comparable to the seasonal average. The service and construction industry PMIs also rebounded, but their absolute levels are low. Overall, the economy shows a stable trend [17]. - The rise in prices has not effectively translated into investment and financing demand and interest rate - rising pressure. PPI is likely to turn positive in March, but the rise has significant structural characteristics. The PPI of industries related to non - ferrous metals and crude oil has rebounded significantly, while the PPI of mid - and downstream industries is still under pressure. The rebound in PPI has not led to a comprehensive improvement in corporate profits. There is a significant K - shaped differentiation in corporate profits, with only a few industries seeing large profit increases, while the profit growth rates of other industries are still low, resulting in low financing demand [21]. - In April, the financing demand may decline seasonally, which will further widen the bank's asset gap and increase the bond - allocation demand. The issuance of government bonds in April is usually the lowest in a year, and the social financing scale remains low, resulting in insufficient asset supply. On the demand side, the gap between bank deposit growth and loan growth is still large, and the weak loan trend may continue, which will drive banks to increase bond - allocation [23]. 3.3 Short - term Factors Drive the Intensification of Long - Short - end Differentiation, which May Not Last in the Long Run - The recent long - short - end differentiation is mainly due to short - term factors such as inflation sentiment and end - of - quarter bank institutional behavior adjustments, rather than fundamental and capital factors. Inflation itself should not trend - wise push up long - term interest rates. The current long - term bond's greater reaction to prices is inconsistent with historical experience. The current price increase is mainly due to imported factors, which will not increase corporate investment and financing demand and has no trend - wise impact on interest rates [33]. - After the end of the quarter, the bank's bond - allocation power will recover, and combined with loose funds, the market may continue to recover. The previous bond market adjustment before the end of the quarter was mainly related to bank institutional behavior. Banks may sell bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter and adjust their bond - holding structures due to end - of - quarter indicator assessments. After the end of the quarter, the bank's bond - allocation demand is expected to recover, and the short positions of trading institutions will be closed, driving the market to recover [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the valuation price deviations of different types of bonds, including AA - rated urban investment bonds, the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price declines, the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price increases, and the top 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases. It identifies the bonds with the most significant valuation price deviations in each category [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Discount - Ranked AA Urban Investment Bonds - Among AA - rated urban investment bonds, "25 Tengchong 01" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a deviation of - 0.18% and a remaining term of 4.26 years. Other bonds such as "21 Ruili Bond" and "25 Hechuan 02" also have relatively high discount rates [2][3]. 3.2 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Declines - In the list of the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price declines, "24 Chanrong 02" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a deviation of - 1.39% and a remaining term of 2.79 years. Multiple bonds of the "Chanrong" series show significant price declines [2][5]. 3.3 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - For the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price increases, "19 Jintou 27" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a deviation of 0.47% and a remaining term of 0.02 years. Other bonds like "26 Minsheng V1" and "25 Zhangqiu Holdings MTN005" also have relatively large price increases [2][10]. 3.4 Top 50 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - Among the top 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases, "24 ICBC Tier 2 Capital Bond 01B(BC)" has the largest valuation price deviation, with a deviation of 0.18% and a remaining term of 8.44 years [2][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensity of selling long - term and ultra - long - term bonds by trading desks did not increase this week, which limited the rapid rise of ultra - long - term bond yields to some extent. The willingness of allocation desks to buy long - term and ultra - long - term bonds is still relatively limited, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to moderately participate in long - term bonds during adjustments, and pay attention to the opportunities of spread compression [1][2][10][16]. - This week, affected by the economic start - up, inflation recovery expectations, and external market fluctuations, the bond market was in a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with intensified fluctuations. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds both rose by 2bp [9]. - The economic data from January to February generally improved, with obvious upward industrial growth and moderate consumption recovery. Since March, automobile consumption has been sluggish, while port throughput has been strong [62][63]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and the dot - plot implied a hawkish tendency. Overseas bond markets, including US and European bonds, declined, and most emerging market bond markets also fell [71][72]. - The prices of live pigs and Shanghai gold fell this week. The performance of major asset classes was: crude oil > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > rebar > US dollar > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > live pigs [77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the bond market fluctuated sharply due to the economic start - up, inflation recovery expectations, and external market fluctuations. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 2bp. The market showed different trends on different days, affected by various factors such as economic data, oil prices, and equity market performance [9]. - From the perspective of trading desks, the selling intensity of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds did not increase. From the perspective of allocation desks, large - scale banks increased their allocation of short - term bonds, and insurance institutions began to increase their allocation of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds in the past two weeks. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to moderately participate in long - term bonds during adjustments and pay attention to spread compression opportunities [1][10][14][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank made a net injection of funds this week, and the funding sentiment was balanced. From March 16th to March 20th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 2458 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 rates changed by +0.4bp and - 0.09bp respectively compared with March 13th, reaching 1.40% and 1.32%. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first decreased, then increased, and then decreased again. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first increased, then decreased, and then rebounded. As of March 20th, the 3M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount price was 1.43%, down 5bp from March 13th [20][23]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - This week, bond yields fluctuated sharply, and short - term bonds performed better. The yields of 3m, 1y, 3y, and 20y Treasury bonds declined, while those of 5y, 10y, and 30y Treasury bonds rose. Except for the 7Y - 5Y and 3Y - 1Y, the term spreads of other key - term Treasury bonds widened. As of March 20th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 2bp compared with March 13th, reaching 1.83% and 2.39% respectively, and the term spread between them rose by 1bp to 56bp [25]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of March 20th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds fell to 31%. The spread between 50Y - 30Y Treasury bonds widened by 2bp compared with March 13th, and the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds widened significantly by 0.6bp to 56bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.4%, and the exchange leverage ratio dropped to 121.7%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.02 years to 2.57 years compared with March 13th, while the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.03 years this week. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed [38]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased significantly. From March 16th to March 20th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 818 billion yuan, a significant increase of 562.8 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds was 525 billion yuan, an increase of 521.9 billion yuan; the net financing of local government bonds was 255.4 billion yuan, an increase of 147.3 billion yuan; the net financing of policy - financial bonds was 3.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.63 billion yuan. The net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the average issuance rate continued to decline, dropping 1.7bp to 1.53%. Next week, a 7Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260007.IB will be newly issued [52][55][59]. 3.3 Economic Data - The economic data from January to February generally improved, with the year - on - year increase of industrial added value of above - scale industries at +6.3%, the year - on - year increase of social consumer goods retail at +2.8% (forecast +2.6%), and the year - on - year increase of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) at +1.8% (expected - 5.0%). The LPR quotation has remained unchanged for 10 consecutive months. Since March, automobile consumption has been relatively sluggish, while port throughput has been stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality. Industrial production has continued to improve marginally [62][63]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The dot - plot implied a hawkish tendency. Overseas bond markets, including US and European bonds, declined, and most emerging market bond markets also fell. The 2Y US Treasury bond rate rose 15bp to 3.88%, the 10Y US Treasury bond rate rose 11bp to 4.39%, and the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread narrowed 4bp to 51bp [71][72]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week, closing at 4567.0 points as of March 20, 2026, a decrease of 2.19% compared with March 13th. This week, the Nanhua Crude Oil Index continued to rise, while the Nanhua Live Pig Index, Shanghai Gold, and Shanghai Copper all declined. The performance of major asset classes was: crude oil > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > rebar > US dollar > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > live pigs [77]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - From March 23rd to March 27th, there will be liquidity injections and expirations, government bond supplies, and the release of fundamental data. There are also important domestic and international events, such as the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 and the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, OpenClaw topped the GitHub hot list, accelerating the layout of AI Agent. This report systematically analyzes its theoretical framework and implementation path in the fixed - income investment and research scenario [3]. - AI Agent leads fixed - income investment and research from "dialogue response" to "autonomous action". It is a goal - driven autonomous intelligent system that can solve the pain points of traditional large models [3]. - The mainstream development platforms of AI Agent are divided into three categories, and different platforms are suitable for different users and application scenarios [3]. - AI Agent is suitable for the pain points of the fixed - income industry and can achieve multi - scenario full - process automation in the future [3]. - Privatized deployment is the inevitable choice for financial institutions to implement AI Agent, with the optimal solution of "domestic open - source models + privatized deployment" [3]. - Currently, the implementation of AI technology in the fixed - income field still faces challenges such as data security and compliance, model hallucination, high business adaptation threshold, lack of interpretability, and computing power cost pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 AI Agent's Definition, Knowledge System, and Architecture Classification - **Definition and Development Background**: AI Agent is an intelligent system based on LLM that can independently understand user goals, disassemble tasks, plan execution paths, and call tools to complete complex tasks. It emerged to solve the pain points of traditional large models, and its development was promoted by relevant research and the breakthrough of reasoning large models [9][10]. - **Difference from Traditional Q&A AI and Copilot**: AI Agent has high autonomy, can achieve the user - specified final goal, and can perform complex interactions. It is different from traditional Q&A AI and Copilot in terms of autonomy, goal, interaction mode, task - handling ability, and typical application scenarios [12]. - **Knowledge System and Architecture**: AI Agent is a closed - loop system. Its operation logic can be disassembled into five steps: environmental perception, planning and decision - making, action execution, feedback verification, and reflection and optimization [14][15]. - **Three Mainstream Architecture Paradigms**: There are three mainstream architecture paradigms: reactive, deliberative, and hybrid. Each has its own advantages, limitations, and typical application scenarios [18][22][24]. 3.2 AI Agent's Support Technologies - **Large Language Model (LLM) Base Technology**: LLM is the "brain" of AI Agent. Different tasks require different base models, and factors such as Token, Embedding, Temperature, Top P, and context window affect its performance [28][30]. - **Prompt Engineering**: It is the "language art" of communicating with LLM/Agent. There are principles for writing prompts, and there are also common prompt - writing skills in Agent development [31][32][35]. - **Retrieval - Augmented Generation (RAG) Technology**: RAG breaks the knowledge boundary of large language models. It has a two - stage process and is mainly applied in three fields, but it also faces some technical bottlenecks [38][40][47]. - **Tool Call and Plugin Development Technology**: Tool call enables AI Agent to perform specific operations. The tool - call process has four steps, and there are six types of commonly used tools in the fixed - income business scenario [48][50][52]. - **Memory System Construction Technology**: The memory system of AI Agent is divided into short - term memory and long - term memory, which is crucial for its coherent behavior, personalized service, and continuous learning [53]. - **Multi - Agent Collaboration Technology**: Multi - Agent collaboration allows multiple AI Agents to work together to complete more complex tasks, with advantages such as professional division of labor, reduced complexity, controllable and compliant processes, and strong traceability [55]. - **Workflow Orchestration Technology**: Workflow orchestration fixes the execution steps of Agent into a standardized process, with advantages such as strong stability, traceability, batch - processing ability, and low - code development [58][59]. 3.3 AI Agent's Mainstream Development Platforms and Implementation Paths - **Mainstream Development Platform Comparison Analysis**: The current AI Agent development platforms are divided into three categories: code development frameworks, low - code/no - code platforms, and open - source privatized platforms. Each has its own positioning, architecture characteristics, applicable scenarios, advantages, and limitations, and there are corresponding platform - selection suggestions [60][61]. - **Typical Implementation Process of AI Agent**: Taking the "fixed - income sentiment monitoring Agent" on the Coze platform as an example, the process includes defining the goal and boundary, writing the Agent's persona and prompts, configuring tools and plugins, configuring the knowledge base, orchestrating the workflow, configuring multi - Agents (optional), testing and tuning, and publishing and integrating [63][64][65]. - **Privatized Deployment Scheme of AI Agent**: Privatized deployment is the mainstream choice for financial institutions. There are light - weight and enterprise - level distributed privatized deployment schemes, each with its own applicable scenarios, architectures, components, and model - selection suggestions [66][69][70]. 3.4 AI Agent's Application, Challenges, and Outlook in the Fixed - Income Field - **Fixed - Income Business Pain Points and AI Agent's Adaptability**: The fixed - income business has pain points such as low investment and research efficiency, homogeneous customer service, lagging risk management, and high compliance costs. AI Agent can address these issues through automation, personalization, real - time monitoring, and standardization [72][73][74]. - **Fixed - Income Field Knowledge Base**: It includes regulatory compliance, macro and market basics, sub - category exclusive investment and research, risk management, investment and research strategies, and case and technical support [75]. - **AI Agent's Application Outlook in Fixed - Income Investment and Research Scenarios**: It can be used in automated data collection and cleaning, macro and interest rate research, credit research and individual bond analysis, and automated research report generation, which can significantly improve work efficiency and reduce risks [76][77][78]. - **AI Agent's Application Outlook in Intelligent Investment Advisory and Asset Allocation Scenarios**: It can be used in customer risk profiling and assessment and fixed - income asset allocation recommendation, with different architectures for different tasks [83][84]. - **Challenges and Outlook**: AI Agent faces challenges such as data security and compliance risks, model hallucination and accuracy issues, business adaptation and implementation thresholds, interpretability and audit requirements, and computing power and cost pressure. In the future, it will evolve into an important part of the fixed - income team, and human - in - the - loop mechanism will become the norm [85][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data at the beginning of 2026 is strong, but its sustainability needs further observation. The economic structure shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price related to domestic demand may still be under pressure. The bond market fluctuates in the short - term, and there is a repair opportunity after the quarter - end [1][5][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Economic Overview - The economic data from January to February 2026 is strong, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The growth of the supply side is affected by the Spring Festival factor, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The industrial added value from January to February increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the service industry production index increased by 5.2% year - on - year, while the fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% and social retail sales increased by 2.8% [1][9]. 3.2 Industrial Output - External demand and the Spring Festival factor jointly drive industrial output. The industrial added value from January to February 2026 increased by 1.1 percentage points to 6.3%, and the service industry GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The export growth rate drove the export delivery value growth rate to increase by 3.1 percentage points to 6.3%. New economy maintains a high growth rate, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% and 13.1% respectively [2][10]. 3.3 Consumption - The consumption growth rate has rebounded but remains at a low level, indicating weak consumption demand. In January - February 2026, social retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, up 1.9 percentage points from December last year. The growth is related to residents' income pressure and low consumption willingness. Some basic and upgraded consumer goods sales have improved, and the retail sales of some industries have increased significantly due to the Spring Festival [3][14]. 3.4 Investment - The investment growth rate has turned positive but is still at a low level. In January - February 2026, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.8% year - on - year, up 17.0 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment achieved positive growth, at 9.8% and 3.1% respectively, offsetting the decline in real estate investment (-11.1%) [3][17]. 3.5 Real Estate - Real estate investment continues to operate at the bottom, and the construction and sales ends are still under pressure. From January to February, real estate investment was -11.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The construction end data is deteriorating, and the sales end has improved slightly under the influence of policies, but developers' confidence is still insufficient [4][19]. 3.6 Bond Market - The bond market fluctuates in the short - term. The long - end fluctuates greatly due to low participation of allocation - type institutions, while the short - end declines due to loose liquidity and falling inter - bank deposit rates. The long - end adjustment may not be sustainable, and the market is expected to repair after the quarter - end. It is recommended to increase leverage in the short - term and choose a suitable riding position [5][26].

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the bull run in emerging markets is contingent upon the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy [1] Group 1 - The rise in oil prices poses a potential threat to the global economy, which could influence investor sentiment in emerging markets [1]

Core Insights - The traditional view of "fixed income" for retirees, primarily associated with safe bonds providing steady interest, is becoming outdated due to recent market changes [3][4] - Retirees have experienced significant portfolio declines, with values dropping by as much as 20% in 2022 as interest rates increased, undermining the expected stability of fixed income investments [4][9] Bond Market Dynamics - Inflation has severely impacted the real returns on bonds, with a 10-year Treasury yielding 4.06% in mid-February 2026 translating to a real return of only 1.5% after accounting for 2.4% inflation [5][9] - Tax implications further diminish the real earnings for retirees, potentially leading to near-zero returns in real terms after state and federal taxes are considered [6] TIPS and Their Limitations - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) were expected to mitigate inflation risks but offer lower yields around 2.46%, which may not suffice for retirees' income needs [7] Portfolio Strategy Challenges - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy, which relied on the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, has been disrupted as bond portfolios also dropped 20% in 2022, breaking the assumption of fixed income safety [8][9] - The correlation between stocks and bonds turned positive in 2022, leading to a loss of diversification benefits for the 60/40 portfolio strategy [9]

Group 1: REITs Market Analysis - The recent performance of newly listed REITs has been disappointing, with significant price drops on their debut days, such as the 华夏安博仓储 REIT [2][6] - Factors contributing to this trend include a strong A-share market in the second half of 2025, leading funds to shift from debt-oriented REITs to equity assets, and a rise in interest rates diminishing the relative value of REITs [2][6][7] - The relaxation of the REITs inquiry limit to 25% in June 2025 has increased market pricing dynamics, resulting in narrower valuation spreads between primary and secondary markets, thus compressing profit margins for new REITs [7][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a peak in the unlocking of strategic investment shares in REITs, which may further pressure the secondary market performance of newly issued REITs [7][9] - C-REITs may present some low-position investment value after continuous adjustments, with defensive sectors like consumption infrastructure and municipal environmental REITs showing resilience due to stable cash flows and policy support [11] Group 2: Fixed Income and Wealth Management - As of December 2025, the total wealth management scale reached 33.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.7 trillion yuan from the previous month, but an increase of 3.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [12][13] - The average annualized yield for newly issued fixed-income wealth management products slightly rebounded in December 2025, with the upper limit at 2.75% and the lower limit at 2.25% [13] - The bond market is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2026, with a focus on long-term bonds potentially rebounding from oversold conditions [19] Group 3: CPI and Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2023, driven significantly by food prices [16][17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -1.9%, with positive month-on-month growth for three consecutive months, indicating price support from upstream industries [16][17] Group 4: Company Overview - Vision Smart - Vision Smart, a leader in the building intelligence sector, has maintained a growth rate of 20% to 30% in its KNX smart control business since 2022, significantly boosting revenue [22][23] - The global market for KNX products is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.3% from 2025 to 2031, with the Chinese smart home market expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [23][24] - The company has established a strong presence in over 70 countries and regions, with plans to enhance production capacity through a new industrial park project [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 18th, the planned issuance of local bonds is 702.01 million yuan, including 227.56 million yuan of new bonds (0.00 million yuan of new general bonds and 227.56 million yuan of new special bonds) and 474.45 million yuan of refinancing bonds (85.69 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 388.76 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - From January 5th to January 11th, the actual issuance of local bonds is 1176.64 million yuan, including 884.34 million yuan of new bonds (10.00 million yuan of new general bonds and 874.34 million yuan of new special bonds) and 292.30 million yuan of refinancing bonds (0.00 million yuan of refinancing general bonds and 292.30 million yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance 3.1.1 Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure - From January 5th to January 11th, the net supply of local bonds is 1147 million yuan; from January 12th to January 18th, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 639 million yuan [18]. - The issuance situation of different types of bonds from January 5th to January 11th and January 12th to January 18th is presented in figures [14][18]. 3.1.2 Comparison of Planned Issuance and Actual Issuance - The planned and actual issuance amounts of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds are compared, and relevant data are shown in figures [16][20]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply 3.2.1 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of January 11th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 0.13%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 1.75% [28][29]. 3.2.2 Refinancing Bond Net Supply - As of January 11th, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities in the current year is presented in figures [28][29]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details 3.3.1 Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics - As of January 11th, the fifth round of the second batch of special refinancing bonds has a total planned issuance of 20000.00 million yuan, and the fifth round of the third batch has a total planned issuance of 511.06 million yuan, with an additional 218.76 million yuan newly disclosed this week. The top - three regions in terms of the disclosed scale of the fifth round of the third batch are Shandong (256.09 million yuan), Ningbo (114.74 million yuan), and Hubei (104.02 million yuan) [7]. - The issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds from different rounds are presented in figures [34]. 3.3.2 Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics - As of January 11th, the total planned issuance of special new special bonds in 2026 is 33.30 million yuan, and since 2023, the total planned issuance is 25546.72 million yuan. The top - three regions in terms of the disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 million yuan), Hubei (1377.69 million yuan), and Henan (1325.34 million yuan). The top - two regions in terms of the 2026 disclosed scale are Shandong (22.30 million yuan) and Zhejiang (11.00 million yuan) [7]. - The issuance statistics of special new special bonds from 2023 to 2026 are presented in figures [37]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading 3.4.1 Primary - Secondary Spread - The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in figures, showing the spreads and their changes on different terms on January 4th and January 11th, 2026 [41]. 3.4.2 Regional Secondary Spread - The regional secondary spreads of local bonds in different regions from October 2025 to January 2026 are presented in tables [42]. 3.5 New Special Bond Investment Directions 3.5.1 Project Investment Direction Monthly Statistics - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented in figures, with the latest month's statistics only considering the investment directions of issued new bonds [44].

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with inflation showing signs of slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December. The Fed's cautious stance indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions [2][3] - In Europe, a weak economic recovery is coupled with the European Central Bank's increased tolerance for inflation, leading to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [3] - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export-oriented sectors. Structural support for service consumption is anticipated as policies support recovery [3][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement, with a focus on the integrated effects of monetary and fiscal policies. A reserve requirement ratio cut is expected to be implemented first, with interest rate cuts being more structural [3][3] Fixed Income Research - Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, have seen their market scale exceed 1.14 trillion RMB, reflecting the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and the opening of China's bond market [6][6] - The panda bond market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration (2005-2013), development with increased participation (2014-2022), and rapid expansion and product innovation (2023-present) [6][6] - Panda bonds offer lower financing costs compared to offshore dollar bonds and provide flexibility in fund usage, while also serving as a risk diversification tool for investors [7][7] - As of December 5, 2025, there are 263 panda bonds with a market size of 414.886 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase in issuance driven by policy optimization [7][7] Industry Research - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, with significant developments including the approval of a domestic anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody and the introduction of a weight-loss version of semaglutide for cardiovascular indications [11][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.66% during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 1.43% [11][11] - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies whose products enter medical insurance and the investment opportunities arising from structural optimization in innovative drug payments, as well as the progress in the medical device sector following the initiation of high-value consumables procurement [12][12]