Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The economic data released today basically met expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual growth target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows strong external demand driving production, while domestic consumption is weakening and the real estate sector is deeply adjusted, with the foundation for recovery still to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period. Monetary easing may pick up in October after the domestic economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Although the central bank is actively injecting funds, there is resistance to further decline in fund rates, and the short - term rates' failure to decline further limits the downward space for long - term rates [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 - trillion yuan outright repo to support tax - period liquidity and the economic data not exceeding expectations led to a full - line rebound in treasury bond futures. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined by 1 - 2bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 1.11bp to 1.6550% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funds loosened in the afternoon. There were 690 billion yuan of reverse repos and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, and the central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 1.4 trillion yuan of outright repos. Short - term fund rates rose due to tax - period effects, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose [10] 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year in June. The per - capita disposable income of residents in the first half was 21840 yuan, a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.3% [13][14] - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14 - 15, it deployed seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, civilized, and smart cities [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The data includes trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 15, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also mentions the spread between main contracts across different maturities and varieties, as well as the trend of main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and changes in inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rates and inter - bank pledged repo rates [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean values) [34]