Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under short - term pressure from factors such as the resilience of exports and the economic fundamentals, the warming of commodities, and the rise in market risk appetite. However, the bull - market foundation remains unchanged in the long run. In the short term, the bond market may fall into a shock due to the intertwined influence of multiple factors [11][12]. - The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. Although the inflation data has improved, whether the industrial product prices can continue to rise needs to be observed based on the actual implementation of the capacity - reduction policy [11]. - The capital market is expected to remain loose in August due to factors such as the decrease in government bond issuance, fiscal investment, and the support of the central bank [12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to open lower and close lower across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all increased, with the long - end increasing by 2 - 3bp. The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank funds remained loose [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. The long - term bull - market foundation remains unchanged, but the short - term bond market may fall into a shock. This week, attention should be paid to the issuance of treasury bonds after the implementation of the new VAT regulations, economic data, and the actual implementation of the exemption and extension on August 12 [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Inflation Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year for three consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and the year - on - year decline remained the same as the previous month [13]. - **Real Estate Market**: From January to July, the land acquisition amount of top 100 enterprises and the land transfer fees in 300 cities increased year - on - year, indicating a recovery in corporate investment confidence. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy and increased the support of housing provident funds [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on August 11, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index loosened, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [33].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.200 | 120.510 | 120.760 | 120.770 | 0.560 | 0.47 | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in leverage in the interbank bond market, with a mixed performance in the primary market and overall positive sentiment in the secondary market, leading to an increase in bond duration and active trading of ultra-long bonds [2][4][7] - In the funding market, the demand for expansion has cooled, with a decrease in net inflow for major borrowing parties and an increase in net inflow for major lending parties. The total balance of repos in the interbank market has risen, while the leverage ratio has slightly decreased [4][7][8] - The primary market saw a divergence in bidding multiples, with a rise in the bidding multiple for 10-year government bonds, while the multiples for policy bonds decreased. The spread between primary and secondary prices has widened [17][19] Group 2 - The secondary market has shown active trading in ultra-long bonds, with an increase in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and a rise in the average duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds. The total borrowing volume for bonds has decreased, and the proportion of active bonds has also declined [26][30] - Major buyers have increased net purchases of ultra-long bonds, while net purchases of short, medium, and long-term bonds have decreased. Major sellers have increased net sales of medium and long-term bonds, while the selling pressure on short and ultra-long bonds has weakened [26][30][33] - The report highlights that large commercial banks have continued to net buy short-term bonds within 3 years, while maintaining significant net selling pressure on ultra-long bonds of 10 years and above [34][36] Group 3 - In June, the data on wealth management did not show a significant seasonal decline, with a slight increase in wealth management scale during the week of June 22. The total wealth management scale decreased by 204.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income products [34][36] - The fund scale increased by 299.9 billion yuan in June, with both equity and bond funds seeing significant increases. However, the issuance of new bond funds saw a slight decline compared to the previous week [36][37]

Key Points - The overall funding market has warmed up, with a slight decrease in leverage ratios in the interbank bond market [1] - There is a divergence in the issuance heat of new bonds, with an increase in the issuance of national development bonds and a decrease in other policy financial bonds [1][2] - In the secondary market, funds and rural commercial banks have significantly increased their positions in short-term bonds, while trading activity in ultra-long bonds continues to weaken [2] - The scale of wealth management products has seen a low growth rate in May, with a total increase of 16 billion yuan, primarily in cash management and fixed-income products [3] - The scale of funds has increased by 61.8 billion yuan in May, with notable increases in equity and bond funds [3]