1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In December, the bond market fluctuated weakly. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the initial stage of large supply - demand mismatch, the central bank is likely to provide support before the Spring Festival, which may lead to a low - level repair opportunity for Treasury bond futures, and bond yields may first rise and then fall in January. Currently, Treasury bond futures may stabilize at a low level [11][12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Large - scale maturity in the open - market led to tightened funds, suppressing short - term varieties. Long - term sentiment recovered, and the decline of A - shares caused a significant rise in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 falling 1bp to 1.86% [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: Inter - bank funds tightened. There was 600 billion yuan of repurchase maturity, and the net repurchase withdrawal in the open - market was 257.6 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate rose 6.4bp to 1.39%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 5.7bp to 1.55%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.63 - 1.64% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The bond market may first face pressure from supply and credit impulse at the beginning of January, but after that, with the central bank's possible support, there may be a low - level repair opportunity. This week, with the release of economic data, pay attention to fundamental information. Currently, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market is being digested, and the current price may attract early - year allocation [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five - Year Plan" for circular economy development, aiming to improve resource utilization efficiency and support green - low - carbon transformation [13]. - The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure to adjust interest rates. The labor market is stable, inflation may peak in the first half of 2026, and the US financial system is important globally [13]. - Chinese leaders emphasized supervision to ensure the implementation of major decisions, and China welcomes foreign investment to promote high - quality economic development [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including opening, closing, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume, and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts on January 13 are presented [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted - average interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate changes is provided [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves (average) is given [35].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying has heated up again, causing treasury bond futures to strengthen in the afternoon and close higher across the board [8] - Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market have declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp [9] - Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank has returned to net investment in the open market, and the money market has tightened. Short - term interest rates have risen across the board [10] - The economic data for August shows that the domestic demand recovery foundation is still weak, and there is no strong need for the domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. However, the suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures strengthened in the afternoon and closed higher across the board due to the rising expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling about 2bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.7625% [8][9] - **Money Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 3040 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, achieving a net investment of 1145 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic data for August shows weak domestic demand recovery. There is no strong need for domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. The suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may lack a breakthrough, and short - term bonds may be more resilient [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3%. Real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. In August, social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% [14] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. From January to August, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 17th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Related Spreads and Trends**: It also shows information such as the inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures' main contracts, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trends of main contracts [17][19][22] - **Money Market**: It includes the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, and the changes in the weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [37]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under short - term pressure from factors such as the resilience of exports and the economic fundamentals, the warming of commodities, and the rise in market risk appetite. However, the bull - market foundation remains unchanged in the long run. In the short term, the bond market may fall into a shock due to the intertwined influence of multiple factors [11][12]. - The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. Although the inflation data has improved, whether the industrial product prices can continue to rise needs to be observed based on the actual implementation of the capacity - reduction policy [11]. - The capital market is expected to remain loose in August due to factors such as the decrease in government bond issuance, fiscal investment, and the support of the central bank [12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to open lower and close lower across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all increased, with the long - end increasing by 2 - 3bp. The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank funds remained loose [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. The long - term bull - market foundation remains unchanged, but the short - term bond market may fall into a shock. This week, attention should be paid to the issuance of treasury bonds after the implementation of the new VAT regulations, economic data, and the actual implementation of the exemption and extension on August 12 [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Inflation Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year for three consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and the year - on - year decline remained the same as the previous month [13]. - **Real Estate Market**: From January to July, the land acquisition amount of top 100 enterprises and the land transfer fees in 300 cities increased year - on - year, indicating a recovery in corporate investment confidence. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy and increased the support of housing provident funds [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on August 11, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index loosened, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [33].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The economic data released today basically met expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual growth target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows strong external demand driving production, while domestic consumption is weakening and the real estate sector is deeply adjusted, with the foundation for recovery still to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period. Monetary easing may pick up in October after the domestic economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Although the central bank is actively injecting funds, there is resistance to further decline in fund rates, and the short - term rates' failure to decline further limits the downward space for long - term rates [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 - trillion yuan outright repo to support tax - period liquidity and the economic data not exceeding expectations led to a full - line rebound in treasury bond futures. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined by 1 - 2bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 1.11bp to 1.6550% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funds loosened in the afternoon. There were 690 billion yuan of reverse repos and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, and the central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 1.4 trillion yuan of outright repos. Short - term fund rates rose due to tax - period effects, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose [10] 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year in June. The per - capita disposable income of residents in the first half was 21840 yuan, a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.3% [13][14] - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14 - 15, it deployed seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, civilized, and smart cities [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The data includes trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 15, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also mentions the spread between main contracts across different maturities and varieties, as well as the trend of main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and changes in inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rates and inter - bank pledged repo rates [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean values) [34]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in leverage in the interbank bond market, with a mixed performance in the primary market and overall positive sentiment in the secondary market, leading to an increase in bond duration and active trading of ultra-long bonds [2][4][7] - In the funding market, the demand for expansion has cooled, with a decrease in net inflow for major borrowing parties and an increase in net inflow for major lending parties. The total balance of repos in the interbank market has risen, while the leverage ratio has slightly decreased [4][7][8] - The primary market saw a divergence in bidding multiples, with a rise in the bidding multiple for 10-year government bonds, while the multiples for policy bonds decreased. The spread between primary and secondary prices has widened [17][19] Group 2 - The secondary market has shown active trading in ultra-long bonds, with an increase in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and a rise in the average duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds. The total borrowing volume for bonds has decreased, and the proportion of active bonds has also declined [26][30] - Major buyers have increased net purchases of ultra-long bonds, while net purchases of short, medium, and long-term bonds have decreased. Major sellers have increased net sales of medium and long-term bonds, while the selling pressure on short and ultra-long bonds has weakened [26][30][33] - The report highlights that large commercial banks have continued to net buy short-term bonds within 3 years, while maintaining significant net selling pressure on ultra-long bonds of 10 years and above [34][36] Group 3 - In June, the data on wealth management did not show a significant seasonal decline, with a slight increase in wealth management scale during the week of June 22. The total wealth management scale decreased by 204.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income products [34][36] - The fund scale increased by 299.9 billion yuan in June, with both equity and bond funds seeing significant increases. However, the issuance of new bond funds saw a slight decline compared to the previous week [36][37]

Key Points - The overall funding market has warmed up, with a slight decrease in leverage ratios in the interbank bond market [1] - There is a divergence in the issuance heat of new bonds, with an increase in the issuance of national development bonds and a decrease in other policy financial bonds [1][2] - In the secondary market, funds and rural commercial banks have significantly increased their positions in short-term bonds, while trading activity in ultra-long bonds continues to weaken [2] - The scale of wealth management products has seen a low growth rate in May, with a total increase of 16 billion yuan, primarily in cash management and fixed-income products [3] - The scale of funds has increased by 61.8 billion yuan in May, with notable increases in equity and bond funds [3]