行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 5 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 2 月 PMI 走弱叠加避险情绪支撑，债市延续偏强表现。 利率现券： 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率多数下行，十年国债收益率下行幅度在 1bp 以内，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃券 250022 收益率报 1.788%下行 0.8bp。 资金市场： 月初银行间资金面宽松。今日公开市场逆回购净回笼 3690 亿元。银存间的 DR 隔夜在 1.27%附近窄幅变动，7 天资金利率回落 3.3bp 至 1.42%附近，中长期资 金平稳，1 年 AAA 存单利率在 1.56~ ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货2月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.930 | 112.930 | 112.360 | 112.350 | -0.570 | -0.50 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In December, the bond market fluctuated weakly. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the initial stage of large supply - demand mismatch, the central bank is likely to provide support before the Spring Festival, which may lead to a low - level repair opportunity for Treasury bond futures, and bond yields may first rise and then fall in January. Currently, Treasury bond futures may stabilize at a low level [11][12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Large - scale maturity in the open - market led to tightened funds, suppressing short - term varieties. Long - term sentiment recovered, and the decline of A - shares caused a significant rise in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 falling 1bp to 1.86% [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: Inter - bank funds tightened. There was 600 billion yuan of repurchase maturity, and the net repurchase withdrawal in the open - market was 257.6 billion yuan. The overnight DR rate rose 6.4bp to 1.39%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 5.7bp to 1.55%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.63 - 1.64% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The bond market may first face pressure from supply and credit impulse at the beginning of January, but after that, with the central bank's possible support, there may be a low - level repair opportunity. This week, with the release of economic data, pay attention to fundamental information. Currently, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market is being digested, and the current price may attract early - year allocation [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five - Year Plan" for circular economy development, aiming to improve resource utilization efficiency and support green - low - carbon transformation [13]. - The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure to adjust interest rates. The labor market is stable, inflation may peak in the first half of 2026, and the US financial system is important globally [13]. - Chinese leaders emphasized supervision to ensure the implementation of major decisions, and China welcomes foreign investment to promote high - quality economic development [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including opening, closing, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume, and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts on January 13 are presented [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted - average interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate changes is provided [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves (average) is given [35].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report - Date: January 7, 2026 - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 6, 2026, the bond market sentiment was weak, and treasury bond futures fell across the board due to the central bank's bond purchase scale not exceeding expectations, the rise of A-shares, and the approaching supply peak [8]. - In December 2025, the bond market fluctuated weakly. In January 2026, the bond market will enter a phase where negative factors gradually materialize. Yields may rise first and then fall, and there may be an opportunity for treasury bond futures to recover from low levels [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions on the Day - The central bank's December bond purchase scale was 50 billion yuan, the same as the previous month, not exceeding expectations. Coupled with the rise of A-shares and the approaching supply peak, the bond market sentiment was weak, and treasury bond futures fell across the board [8]. Interest Rate Spot Bonds - The yields of major interbank interest rate spot bonds across all maturities rose. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose by 2.45bp to 1.886% [9]. Money Market - The interbank liquidity tightened marginally. The net reverse repurchase withdrawal in the open market was 296.3 billion yuan. The interbank capital sentiment index rose, indicating tight liquidity. The overnight DR rate fluctuated around 1.26%, and the 7-day funding rate fluctuated around 1.43%. The medium- and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained stable at around 1.6% [10]. Conclusion - In December, the bond market fluctuated weakly. In January, the bond market will enter a phase where negative factors gradually materialize. The implementation of the public fund fee regulations may ease the short-term redemption pressure. January will be a large supply month, and there is a demand for credit impulse at the beginning of the year, which will impact the bond allocation demand and increase the supply pressure. However, as the pressure of the supply-demand mismatch eases and the central bank is likely to provide support before the Spring Festival, the market's loose expectations may heat up again, bringing an opportunity for treasury bond futures to recover from low levels. Bond yields in January may rise first and then fall [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The central bank's net liquidity injection through open market treasury bond trading in December 2025 was 50 billion yuan, the net injection through MLF was 100 billion yuan, and the net injection through SLF was 7.1 billion yuan [13]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors will strengthen the punishment of violations related to the preservation of bond trading records [13]. - At the beginning of 2026, many places held their "first meetings of the new year" to promote high-quality economic development. The core in 2026 is to promote high-quality development [14]. - In 2025, the total new land acquisition value, total price, and construction area of 100 real estate enterprises increased by 2%, 3%, and decreased by 5% respectively year-on-year, with investment concentrated in first- and second-tier cities [14]. - On January 5, 2026, Shandong Province issued 72.381 billion yuan of local government bonds, marking the official start of local government bond issuance in 2026. The issuance scale in the first quarter is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan [15]. 3. Data Overview - The data overview includes information on treasury bond futures market conditions, including the trading data of various contracts on January 6, 2026, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also covers the spread between different maturities and varieties of treasury bond futures, as well as the trends of the main contracts. Additionally, it presents data on the money market, such as SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and interbank repurchase interest rate changes, as well as data on the derivatives market, such as Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves [6][16][29][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The economic data shows that the pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" may continue, and the foundation for the recovery of effective demand is not yet solid. The weak fundamentals provide some support for the current bond market. However, in an environment lacking incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news, and the uncertainty of the new regulations for public bond funds continues to disrupt the market. It is expected that treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. Strategically, a band - trading approach is recommended for unilateral operations, and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities after significant adjustments in long - term bonds [103]. 3. Summary Based on the Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Policy and Regulation - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain overseas rare - earth items. Specific overseas exporters must obtain export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce before exporting to other countries and regions outside China. Export applications to overseas military users, importers, and end - users on the export control list and the watch list are generally not approved. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, proposing measures such as researching and evaluating industry average costs, strengthening price supervision, and standardizing tendering and bidding behaviors [9]. Fundamentals - **Domestic**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday this year, the domestic consumer market showed good growth. Domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Among them, commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively year - on - year, and digital products and automobile consumption grew rapidly. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, remaining at the critical point, indicating that the overall non - manufacturing business volume was stable [9]. - **Overseas**: On October 9 local time, a bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to get enough votes in the Senate. Affected by the government shutdown, important macro - data such as the US non - farm payrolls for September were postponed. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the expected increase of 50,000. A senior Hamas official announced a cease - fire agreement, stating that Hamas had received guarantees from mediators including the US that "the Gaza war is over" [10]. Exchange Rate - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1048, with a cumulative increase of 7 basis points this week [10]. Capital - This week, the central bank conducted 102.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 266.33 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42% [10]. Summary - The yields of treasury bond cash bonds varied this week. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds changed by - 1.5 - 0.01bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds changed by about - 0.8bp and 0.4bp respectively, reaching 1.78% and 2.13%. Treasury bond futures also showed mixed performance. The main contracts of TS and TL fell by 0.02% and 0.03% respectively, while the main contracts of TF and T rose by 0.00% and 0.09% respectively [10]. 3.2 Market Review Weekly Data - The main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL2512) fell by 0.03%, with a trading volume of 57.9847 million; the main contract of 10 - year treasury bond futures (T2512) rose by 0.09%, with a trading volume of 40.07 million; the main contract of 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF2512) had a 0.00% change, with a trading volume of 29.3581 million; the main contract of 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS2512) fell by 0.02%, with a trading volume of 14.9342 million. The prices of the top two CTD bonds also had different changes [12]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased [31]. 3.3 News Review and Analysis - On October 9, the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that from January to August this year, the added value of industrial small and medium - sized enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the export index of small and medium - sized enterprises was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced that during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the national culture and tourism market was generally stable and orderly. The number of domestic tourist trips reached 888 million, an increase of 123 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024, and domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments adjusted the technical requirements for the exemption of new energy vehicle purchase tax from 2026 - 2027. - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain overseas rare - earth items and related technologies and included 14 foreign entities in the unreliable entity list. - A senior Hamas official announced a cease - fire agreement. - A bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to pass in the Senate, and US President Trump planned to cut some federal projects favored by Democrats [34][35][36]. 3.4 Chart Analysis Spread Changes - The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bond yields and the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond yields oscillated. The spread between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures and the spread between the main contracts of 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures slightly widened. The inter - term spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated, the inter - term spread of 5 - year treasury bond futures narrowed, and the inter - term spread of 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated [42][51][55]. Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes - The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T - bond futures main contract increased [68]. Interest Rate Changes - The overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, while the 1 - week Shibor rate increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42%. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds varied. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds changed by - 1.5 - 0.01bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds changed by about - 0.8bp and 0.4bp respectively, reaching 1.78% and 2.13%. The spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bond yields slightly widened, and the spread between Chinese and US 30 - year treasury bond yields slightly narrowed [72][76]. Central Bank Open Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted 102.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market, with 266.33 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 164.23 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.42% [81]. Bond Issuance and Maturity - This week, the bond issuance was 29.9541 billion yuan, the total repayment was 28.6595 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.2946 billion yuan [85]. Market Sentiment - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1048, with a cumulative increase of 7 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds oscillated, and the VIX index increased. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium slightly decreased [88][94][100]. 3.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: During the "National Day" holiday, consumption grew steadily, with the average daily sales revenue of the consumer market increasing by 4.5% year - on - year. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, and the manufacturing sentiment slightly improved; the non - manufacturing PMI fell back to the critical point, and the overall production and business activities remained in the expansion range. Affected by the low base, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in August improved significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Overall, the fundamentals are in a weak recovery rhythm, and although the manufacturing sentiment has improved marginally, it is still in the contraction range. - **Overseas**: The US government has been in a shutdown due to the repeated failure of the appropriation bill to pass, and many key economic data such as the non - farm payrolls for September have been postponed. The market lacks clear guidance in the short term. However, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased in September, far lower than the expected increase, and the employment market suddenly cooled down. The market has increased its bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025. - **Market Outlook**: The current bond market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is expected that treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. - **Strategy**: A band - trading approach is recommended for unilateral operations, and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities after significant adjustments in long - term bonds [103].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying has heated up again, causing treasury bond futures to strengthen in the afternoon and close higher across the board [8] - Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market have declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp [9] - Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank has returned to net investment in the open market, and the money market has tightened. Short - term interest rates have risen across the board [10] - The economic data for August shows that the domestic demand recovery foundation is still weak, and there is no strong need for the domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. However, the suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures strengthened in the afternoon and closed higher across the board due to the rising expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling about 2bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.7625% [8][9] - **Money Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 3040 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, achieving a net investment of 1145 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic data for August shows weak domestic demand recovery. There is no strong need for domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. The suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may lack a breakthrough, and short - term bonds may be more resilient [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3%. Real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. In August, social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% [14] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. From January to August, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 17th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Related Spreads and Trends**: It also shows information such as the inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures' main contracts, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trends of main contracts [17][19][22] - **Money Market**: It includes the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, and the changes in the weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [37]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under short - term pressure from factors such as the resilience of exports and the economic fundamentals, the warming of commodities, and the rise in market risk appetite. However, the bull - market foundation remains unchanged in the long run. In the short term, the bond market may fall into a shock due to the intertwined influence of multiple factors [11][12]. - The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. Although the inflation data has improved, whether the industrial product prices can continue to rise needs to be observed based on the actual implementation of the capacity - reduction policy [11]. - The capital market is expected to remain loose in August due to factors such as the decrease in government bond issuance, fiscal investment, and the support of the central bank [12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to open lower and close lower across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all increased, with the long - end increasing by 2 - 3bp. The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank funds remained loose [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. The long - term bull - market foundation remains unchanged, but the short - term bond market may fall into a shock. This week, attention should be paid to the issuance of treasury bonds after the implementation of the new VAT regulations, economic data, and the actual implementation of the exemption and extension on August 12 [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Inflation Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year for three consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and the year - on - year decline remained the same as the previous month [13]. - **Real Estate Market**: From January to July, the land acquisition amount of top 100 enterprises and the land transfer fees in 300 cities increased year - on - year, indicating a recovery in corporate investment confidence. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy and increased the support of housing provident funds [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on August 11, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index loosened, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have all increased, with short-term yields fluctuating within a narrow range and long-term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.675%, up 1.1bp [9]. - The capital market is stable. There were 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short-term capital interest rates have declined across the board, while the medium and long-term capital remains stable [10]. - The recent policy and economic data have provided limited guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, while the rising market risk appetite has suppressed the bond market. The short-term market still lacks a clear direction [11]. - In the long term, considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand in the fundamentals, as external demand risks become more prominent in the third quarter, the results of tariff negotiations become clear, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October. However, if the anti-involutionary measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the risk of a reversal in the bond market trend needs to be considered [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, leading to a decline in all treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have increased, with short - term yields fluctuating narrowly and long - term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp [8][9]. - **Capital Market**: The capital market is stable. With 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short - term capital interest rates have declined across the board, and the medium and long - term capital remains stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term market lacks a clear direction. In the long term, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October, but the risk of a bond market trend reversal needs to be considered if domestic demand and inflation rise [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **LPR Quotation**: The LPR quotation in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [13]. - **EU Leaders' Visit**: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [13]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank's public solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repos is mainly a long - term measure to optimize the market mechanism and align with international standards, with limited direct connection to restarting treasury bond trading [13]. - **Trade Issues**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights [13]. - **Hydropower Project**: The construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14]. - **G20 Meeting**: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting this year, China stated that it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 21, including contract information such as settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different maturities and varieties of treasury bond futures, as well as the trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Relevant data on the money market, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate change, are provided [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are presented [35].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The economic data released this week is basically in line with expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows that external demand drives strong production, while domestic consumption weakens marginally and the real estate sector undergoes in - depth adjustment. The foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period, and the possibility of further monetary easing may increase in October after the economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Last week, the money market showed signs of bottoming out and rising, and this week it will face the pressure of the large tax - payment month in July. Despite the central bank's active injection of funds, there is still resistance for interest rates to continue to decline, and the lack of further decline in short - term interest rates limits the downward space for long - term interest rates [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With a loosening money market and a quiet news environment, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and most closed higher. The yields of major on - the - run interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.660%, up 0.1bp [8][9] - **Money Market**: With the central bank's support, the impact of the tax - payment period weakened and the money market loosened. There were 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index declined, indicating a缓和 in the tight money situation. Short - term interest rates also declined slightly. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.46%, the 7 - day rate fell 0.7bp to around 1.52%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 10bp to 1.53% [10] 2. Industry News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing after a 10 - year interval. President Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech, guiding urban work in the new era. Urbanization should follow economic and social development laws and avoid being rushed. Urban ecological construction requires a long - term perspective [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for strengthening the domestic economic cycle, heard reports on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry and the preliminary rectification of problems found in the audit of the 2024 central budget implementation, and reviewed and approved a draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [13] - Wang Huning, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, stated that comprehensively expanding domestic demand is necessary for long - term and sustainable economic development and to meet people's growing needs. More in - depth research results should be produced and applied [13] - Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, wrote in Qiushi magazine that high - level opening - up should be used to expand new space for Chinese - style modernization, including promoting higher - quality, higher - standard, more inclusive, and more secure opening - up [14] - The European Commission announced a new budget proposal for 2028 - 2034, totaling 2 trillion euros, a significant increase from the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the Commission proposed several ways to raise more funds, such as taxing companies with an annual net turnover of over 100 million euros in the EU, which has been questioned by some member states [14] - US President Trump said he has no current plan to take action against Fed Chairman Powell and is unlikely to fire him unless fraud is proven. He also mentioned that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are candidates for Fed positions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on July 17, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as TL2509, T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The economic data released today basically met expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual growth target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows strong external demand driving production, while domestic consumption is weakening and the real estate sector is deeply adjusted, with the foundation for recovery still to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period. Monetary easing may pick up in October after the domestic economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Although the central bank is actively injecting funds, there is resistance to further decline in fund rates, and the short - term rates' failure to decline further limits the downward space for long - term rates [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 - trillion yuan outright repo to support tax - period liquidity and the economic data not exceeding expectations led to a full - line rebound in treasury bond futures. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined by 1 - 2bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 1.11bp to 1.6550% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funds loosened in the afternoon. There were 690 billion yuan of reverse repos and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, and the central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 1.4 trillion yuan of outright repos. Short - term fund rates rose due to tax - period effects, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose [10] 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year in June. The per - capita disposable income of residents in the first half was 21840 yuan, a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.3% [13][14] - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14 - 15, it deployed seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, civilized, and smart cities [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The data includes trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 15, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also mentions the spread between main contracts across different maturities and varieties, as well as the trend of main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and changes in inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rates and inter - bank pledged repo rates [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean values) [34]