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制冷剂行业动态研究:HFC-32、HFC-134a配额小幅增加,依然看好制冷剂长期上涨趋势
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-08 15:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals and performance relative to the market index [1]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is expected to experience a price uptrend due to supply constraints from production quotas and increasing demand driven by the growth in household air conditioning and automotive sectors [5][9]. - Recent adjustments in production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-134a show slight increases, while HFC-125's quota has decreased, reflecting a stable yet limited supply environment [6][7][8]. - The demand for refrigerants is projected to rise as the production of household air conditioners and automobiles continues to grow, with significant increases in production volumes noted in recent years [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant prices have shown significant increases, with R32 priced at 53,000 RMB/ton (+3.92% month-on-month), R134a at 49,500 RMB/ton (+2.06%), while R22 and R125 have seen slight declines or stability [5]. - The production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-134a are being utilized at high levels, with HFC-32's production accounting for 54.38% of its adjusted quota and HFC-134a at 50.28% [5]. Market Demand - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 5.40% from 2014 to 2024, with production expected to reach 266 million units by 2024 [9]. - The automotive sector is also rebounding, with a projected production of 31.56 million vehicles in 2024, contributing to increased demand for refrigerants in automotive air conditioning systems [9]. Investment Focus - Key companies to watch in the refrigerant sector include Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Chemical, Haohua Technology, Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources, which are highlighted for their potential growth and investment opportunities [9][10].