值得注意的是，本次配额调整机制更趋灵活。生产企业在满足"不增加总二氧化碳当量"且"累计调整增 量不超过核定品种配额量30%"的双重前提下，可于2026年4月30日与8月31日前提交不同品种间的配额 调整申请。这一变化将显著利好具备多品种布局、高配额基数的头部企业，助力其优化产能结构、提升 盈利弹性。 此外，制冷剂下游还呈现"传统领域稳增、新兴领域扩容"的双重支撑特征。传统应用中，作为最大消费 场景的空调行业已进入设备更新周期，持续释放制冷剂替换需求；新能源汽车市场需求同比增长31%， 带动汽车空调制冷剂需求稳步增长；冷链物流、冰箱冷柜等领域需求平稳增长，形成有效补充。 中化新网讯 近日，生态环境部对2026年度消耗臭氧层物质(ODS)和氢氟碳化物(HFCs)生产、使用和进口 配额核发情况进行公示。这一政策延续并强化了我国制冷剂行业的总量控制与代际替代路径。国信证券 分析指出，在此背景下，制冷剂产品长期景气度具备明确支撑基础。 2026年配额方案以"总量控制、结构优化"为核心。其中，二代制冷剂履约淘汰任务持续推进。2026年我 国二代制冷剂生产配额总量为15.14万吨，较2025年减少1.21万吨，其中内用配额 ...

本周氟化工指数上涨7.76%，跑赢上证综指5.88%。本周（12月22日-12月26日）氟化工指数收于5333.59 点，上涨7.76%，跑赢上证综指5.88%，跑赢沪深300指数5.81%，跑赢基础化工指数3.18%，跑赢新材料 指数0.73%。 氟化工周行情：萤石价格企稳，或将回暖；制冷剂长协延续上涨趋势 萤石：据百川盈孚，截至12月26日，萤石97湿粉市场均价3,290元/吨，较上周同期持平；12月均价（截 至12月26日）3,300元/吨，同比下跌10.13%；2025年(截至12月26日)均价3,481元/吨，较2024年均价下跌 1.80%。 开源证券近日发布氟化工行业周报：本周氟化工指数上涨7.76%，跑赢上证综指5.88%。据百川盈孚， 截至12月26日，萤石97湿粉市场均价3,290元/吨，较上周同期持平；12月均价（截至12月26日）3,300 元/吨，同比下跌10.13%；2025年(截至12月26日)均价3,481元/吨，较2024年均价下跌1.80%。 又据氟务在线跟踪，近期萤石市场在供应端挺价意愿强烈的支撑下，初步止跌并出现小幅回弹迹象。预 计1月氟化氢定价偏强走势，萤石价格回升幅 ...

化学原料 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年制冷剂配额下发，行情保持 趋势向上；PVDF 头部企业停产，有 望助推反转行情—氟化工行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《HFCs 行业稳健运行，趋势未变， 机会明显 — 氟 化 工 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.11.30 《R134a 价格超预期上调，制冷剂板 块性价比显著，长期布局正当时—氟 化工行业周报》-2025.11.16 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（2021.10.20） 《金石资源深度报 ...

Market Performance - The basic chemical index decreased by 2.19% from December 6 to December 12, while the CSI 300 index fell by only 0.08%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 2.12 percentage points, ranking 26th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included rubber additives (4.50%), adhesives and tapes (2.95%), non-metallic materials III (1.04%), synthetic resins (0.68%), and other rubber products (0.37%) [1][2] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrogen peroxide (14.67%), R125 (13.33%), hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (12.50%), domestic vitamin E (8.33%), and raw salt (5.77%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines were liquid chlorine (-33.33%), NYMEX natural gas (-22.31%), R22 (-13.89%), hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) (-12.50%), and R134a (-8.33%) [3] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the issuance of production, use, and import quotas for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for 2026, with a total production quota of 797,800 tons, a slight increase of 5,963 tons from 2025 [4] - The production quotas for R134a, R245fa, R32, and R125 will increase by 3,272, 2,918, 1,171, and 351 tons respectively, while R143 and R227ea will see reductions of 1,255 and 517 tons [4] - The high demand for third-generation refrigerants is expected to continue, with prices remaining elevated; as of December 12, the market prices for R32, R125, and R134a in East China were 63,300, 45,000, and 57,500 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - The production of air conditioners and automobiles in China showed growth, with cumulative production from January to October 2025 reaching 230 million units and 27.325 million vehicles, representing year-on-year increases of 3% and 11% respectively [4] Price Adjustments in the Industry - Several leading companies in the light stabilizer sector have announced price increases of approximately 10% to address long-standing issues of irrational price competition [5] - The price adjustments were initiated by major players such as Lianlong and followed by others like Suqian Liansheng and Tiangang Additives [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the refrigerant sector, as the supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with price levels likely to rise; recommended companies include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [6] - Attention is also suggested for the chemical fiber sector, with recommended companies being Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [6] - Other quality targets include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - The tire sector is highlighted with recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [6] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, recommended companies include Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [6] - Quality growth targets include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [6] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [7]

开源证券主要观点如下： 各家对10%→30%切换比例的变化非常克制、有序 华谊集团（600623）孙公司万豪公司(主要生产F152a，F142b，FKM和PVDF等)停产。据公司公告，公 司涂料级PVDF国内市场占有率超过65%，并在锂电级PVDF领域成为全球主要生产商之一。据氟务在线 资讯，此次停产对市场影响较为显著的产品主要为PVDF，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达 5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验证。 氟化工周行情：萤石价格走势承压；制冷剂延续向上趋势萤石 据百川盈孚，截至12月12日，萤石97湿粉市场均价3,290元/吨，较上周下跌0.87%；12月均价(截至12月 12日)3,312元/吨，同比下跌9.83%；2025年(截至12月12日)均价3,482元/吨，较2024年均价下跌1.78%。 开源证券发布研报称，2026年制冷剂配额下发，氟化工行情延续，R32、R134a、R125、R143a、 R227ea等2026年配额与2025年下发配额变化有限，相比2025年调整后配额有所收缩。另一方面，PVDF 头部企业停产，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 2026 refrigerant quota has been issued, maintaining an upward trend in the market; the shutdown of leading PVDF companies is expected to catalyze a market reversal [4][20] - The refrigerant market is characterized by stable long-term demand and a lack of substitutes, which supports a positive outlook for the sector [30] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Weekly Perspective - The 2026 refrigerant quota has been issued with limited adjustments compared to 2025, indicating a stable market environment [28] - The shutdown of a leading PVDF producer is expected to create upward price pressure, with current market prices reaching up to 56,000 yuan/ton [21][24] 2. Market Performance - The fluorochemical index rose by 0.12% during the week of December 8-12, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.47% [6][17] - The overall market sentiment remains strong, with companies like Dongyangguang and Juhua showing significant stock price increases [12][20] 3. Raw Material and Product Pricing - The price of R32 refrigerant is stable at 63,000 yuan/ton, while R134a has seen a price increase to 57,500 yuan/ton [10][11] - PVDF prices have rebounded from 36,000 yuan/ton to 49,000 yuan/ton, indicating a recovery in demand [21][22] 4. Industry Dynamics - The demand for PVDF is expected to continue growing, with the coating-grade PVDF market share projected to reach 25% by 2024 [22] - The overall fluorochemical market is experiencing a stable trend, with the price of raw materials like hydrogen fluoride showing mixed movements [38][39]

国信证券近日发布2026年度制冷剂配额核发公示点评：具体配额上，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为 79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相比2025年初配额有所增加， R143a、R152a、R227ea相比2025年初有所减少。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事项： 2025年12月9日，生态环境部发布《关于2026年度消耗臭氧层物质和氢氟碳化物生产、使用和进口配额 核发情况的公示》，生态环境部受理了38家企业提交的2026年度二代制冷剂生产、使用配额申请，受理 了65家企业提交的2026年度三代制冷剂生产、进口配额申请，并对最终各企业生产、进口二代、三代制 冷剂配额进行了公示。其中二代制冷剂落实年度履约淘汰任务，R22生产配额削减了3005吨，R141b配 额清零；三代制冷剂生产和使用总量控制目标保持在基线值，维持了2025年的生产配额总量为18.53亿 吨CO2、内用生产配额总量为8.95亿吨CO2、进口配额总量为0.1亿吨CO2。具体配额上，2026年三代制 冷剂生产配额总量为79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年二代制冷剂履约削减，三代制冷剂配额制度延续， R32、R134a、R125等品种行业集中度高；三代制冷剂品种间转化比例同比增长，企业生产调配灵活性 提升，预计2026年主流三代制冷剂将保持供需紧平衡。制冷剂配额约束收紧为长期趋势方向，在此背景 下，看好R32、R134a、R125等主流制冷剂景气度将延续，价格长期仍有较大上行空间；对应制冷剂配 额龙头企业有望保持长期高盈利水平。此外看好液冷产业对氟化液与制冷剂需求的提升。 国信证券主要观点如下： 三代制冷剂：R32、R125、R134a较2025年初配额有所增加，R143a、R152a、R227ea有所减少，两次 年内配额调整比例合计上调至30%，供给在配额约束下更具灵活性 根据《2026年度氢氟碳化物生产、进口配额核发表》，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为79.78万吨， 相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨；三代制冷剂内用配额总量为39.41万吨，较2025年初增加4502吨。 分品种看，R32生产配额28.15万吨，增加1171吨，内用配额18.52万吨，增加770吨；R134a生产配额 21.15万 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of the 2026 refrigerant quota indicates a long-term constraint on the supply side of both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continuation of product prosperity in the refrigerant market [3][5] - For second-generation refrigerants, the production and usage in 2026 will be reduced by 71.5% and 76.1% from the baseline, respectively, with R22 production quota reduced by 3,005 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% [3][6] - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,800 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons compared to the beginning of 2025, with specific increases in R32, R125, and R134a quotas [2][3][7] - The report emphasizes that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, and it is expected that the main third-generation refrigerants will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, with significant price upside potential [3][20] Summary by Sections Second-Generation Refrigerants - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 151,400 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from 2025, with R22 production quota at 146,100 tons, down 3,005 tons year-on-year [6][3] - The internal usage quota for R22 is 77,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 3.60% [6] Third-Generation Refrigerants - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants is 797,800 tons, with an internal usage quota of 394,100 tons, both showing increases from 2025 [7][3] - Specific increases in production quotas include R32 at 281,500 tons, R134a at 211,500 tons, and R125 at 167,600 tons, while R143a, R152a, and R227ea show slight decreases [7][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and strong quota positions, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Dongyue Group [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook based on supply-demand dynamics and industry performance [2][12]. Core Insights - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to remain the long-term mainstream due to their efficiency and cost advantages over fourth-generation refrigerants, which face higher production costs and lower efficiency [9][10]. - The supply-demand gap for refrigerants is anticipated to widen further, driven by increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors, alongside supply constraints from production quotas [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant industry has shown a significant price increase for major refrigerants due to quota restrictions, with R32 priced at 63,000 CNY/ton, R134a at 55,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton as of December 1, 2025 [4][10]. Production Quotas - High utilization rates for R32 and R134a production quotas were reported, with R32 at 96.71% and R134a at 94.17% for the first ten months of 2025 [5][6]. - The 2026 production quotas for HFCs remain unchanged, but companies with flexible quota allocations are expected to benefit from the adjustments [6][7]. Demand Growth - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a production increase of 2.46% year-on-year, with a total of approximately 230 million units produced from January to October 2025 [10]. - The automotive sector is also recovering, with a 10.80% increase in production during the same period, further driving demand for refrigerants [11]. Future Projections - The internal demand gap for R32 and R134a is projected to increase from -1.24 million tons in 2025 to -2.39 million tons by 2027, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring individual companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Chemical, and others for potential investment opportunities [12][13].