证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 氟化工行业：2025 年 9 月月度观察 优于大市 四季度制冷剂长协价格落地，制冷剂报价持续上涨 9 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 9 月末（9 月 30 日），上证综指报 3882.78 点， 较 8 月末（8 月 29 日）上涨 0.64%；沪深 300 指数报 4640.69 点，较 8 月末 上涨 3.20%；申万化工指数报 4113.74，较 8 月末上涨 1.22%；氟化工指数报 1809.47 点，较 8 月末上涨 7.61%。8 月氟化工行业指数跑赢申万化工指数 6.39pct,跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.41pct，跑赢上证综指 6.97pct。 主流制冷剂产品四季度长协价格落地。据卓创资讯，R32 长协价格为 6.02 万元/吨，较三季度长协价格上涨 9600 元/吨，增幅 18.97%；R410A 长协价 格为 5.32 万元/吨，较三季度价格上涨 3600 元/吨，涨幅为 7.26%。此外， 据氟务在线，制冷剂大厂对外报价或将由季度定价模式转为月度定价模式， 制冷剂价格上涨到制冷剂企业业绩增长的传导将更加顺畅。 R32、R134a 报价持续上涨。R3 ...

核心观点 风险提示：制冷剂配额政策变化的风险；原材料价格变化的风险；需求不及预期的风 险。（东海证券 张晶磊,谢建斌） 2025年9月三代制冷剂价格上行，PVDF、HFP价格回落。截至2025年9月30日，根据百 川盈孚数据，三代制冷剂R32、R125、R134a产品价格分别为62500元/吨、45500元/吨和 52000元/吨，较8月底分别上涨4.17%、0.00%、0.97%。截至2025年9月30日，R22价格为 34000元/吨，较上月下降4.23%，较去年同期上涨13.33%；价差为25127元/吨，较上月底下 降7.51%。PVDF、HFP价格回落，截至2025年9月30日，我国PTFE悬浮中粒、分散乳液、分 散树脂价格分别为37000元/吨、28000元/吨、40000元/吨；PVDF粒料、粉料、锂电级价格分 别为55000元/吨、36000元/吨、49000元/吨；HFP价格为32800元/吨。 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 2025年9月萤石及氢氟酸价格上行。根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月30日，萤石湿粉 和萤石干粉价格分别为3628元/吨和3828元/吨，环比抬升10.07%和9.50% ...

根据产业在线数据，2025年9月到2025年11月，我国家用空调排产总量分别为1075.00万台、1088.01万 台、1220.28万台，同比增速分别为-11.98%、-22.60%和-19.70%。根据百川盈孚数据，2024年6月以来， R32出口量较往年有提升趋势。一方面受到海外需求及补库提升，另一方面国内空调企业海外产能提升 带动了制冷剂出口量的上行。 行业要闻 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，2025年二代制冷剂配额削减，三代制冷剂生产配额总量保持 在基线值，二代、三代制冷剂供需关系仍然趋紧。2025年以来制冷剂价格稳步上行，8月、9月制冷剂价 格持续提升，根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月19日，三代制冷剂R32、R134a、R125价格本年度分别 上涨44.19%、22.35%、8.33%。2025年上半年，制冷剂生产企业巨化股份(600160.SH)、三美股份 (603379.SH)、永和股份(605020.SH)归母净利润分别同比增长145.84%、159.22%、140.82%。制冷剂行 业有望维持高景气，相关生产企业盈利能力有望持续提升。 东海证券主要观点如下： 2025年8月 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a rising trend in the prices of third-generation refrigerants as of August 29, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July [1][2] - The price of R22 has also increased to 35,500 yuan/ton, marking a 1.43% rise from the previous month and an 18.33% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights a decline in domestic air conditioning production from September to November 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 11.98%, 22.60%, and 19.70% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September, where R32, R134a, and R125 saw increases of 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - Major companies in the refrigerant production sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., reported substantial year-on-year net profit growths of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]

第一上海发布研报称，维持东岳集团(00189)"买入"评级，预测公司2025-2027年的收入分别为160.9亿 元/174.7亿元/181.5亿元人民币;净利润分别为19.0亿元/25.8亿元/28.1亿元。给予公司2025年15xPE，目标 价18.9港元，较现价有57.5%的上涨空间。 第一上海主要观点如下： 上半年利润超预期 公司2025年上半年实现收入74.6亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长2.8%;毛利率为29.1%，同比提升近9.3个 百分点;归母净利润7.8亿元，同比增长153.3%，略高于公司的盈喜预告。 制冷剂维持高景气度，价格持续攀升 集团制冷剂业务快速增长，成为公司业绩的重要支撑。2025年上半年实现收入22.9亿元，同比增长 47.7%。盈利10.3亿元，同比增长209.8%，分部利润率为44.9%，同比提升23.5个百分点，主要是受益于 R32、R22、R410a等主要产品价格有明显上涨。目前，截至9月12日，二代制冷剂R22价格为3.45万元/ 吨，较年初上涨2500元/吨。三代制冷剂方面，R134a价格为5.2万元/吨，较9月初上涨500元/吨;R32价格 为6.15万元/吨，较 ...

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "buy" rating for Dongyue Group (00189), predicting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of HKD 18.9, indicating a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongyue Group achieved revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with a gross margin of 29.1%, up nearly 9.3 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 153.3%, slightly exceeding the company's profit forecast [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Business - The refrigerant business experienced rapid growth, contributing significantly to the company's performance, with revenue of RMB 22.9 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%; profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 209.8%, with a segment profit margin of 44.9%, up 23.5 percentage points, driven by significant price increases in key products [2] - As of September 12, 2025, the price of second-generation refrigerant R22 was RMB 34,500 per ton, up RMB 2,500 per ton since the beginning of the year; third-generation refrigerants R134a and R32 also saw price increases [2] Group 3: Fluoropolymer and Silicone Business - The fluoropolymer materials segment faced weak downstream demand, leading to a further decline in product prices; however, the company maintained a competitive advantage with superior product quality, achieving revenue of RMB 19.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and a segment profit margin of 13.4% [3] - The silicone segment experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit due to oversupply and weak downstream demand, with revenue of RMB 27.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%, and a segment profit margin of 0.38% [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemical Sector, specifically focusing on fluorochemicals and refrigerants - **Key Trends**: Significant price increases in refrigerants, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from the air conditioning (AC) industry and emerging liquid cooling technologies for data centers Core Insights - **Refrigerant Price Increases**: - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for refrigerants R32 and R134a have increased by 43% and 22% respectively year-to-date as of September 12, 2025, with R32 reaching Rmb61.5k/t and R134a at Rmb52.0k/t [2][8] - ASPs for R22 have also risen, reflecting a 5% increase [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - Strong supplier pricing power due to quota constraints and a favorable competitive landscape [3][8] - Anticipated continued demand growth for R32, particularly as it is used in most new household ACs, replacing R410a [3][17] - **Liquid Cooling Demand**: - AI-driven demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers is expected to create new growth opportunities for fluorochemical companies [4][25] - Two-phase cold plate liquid cooling and immersion cooling are highlighted as key technologies, with R134a being a suitable coolant for these applications [4][26] Company-Specific Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: - Price targets for Dongyue, Sanmei, Capchem, and Tinci have been raised due to improved earnings forecasts and favorable pricing outlooks for refrigerants [5][42] - Sanmei's price target increased from Rmb62.60 to Rmb85.60, reflecting a 37% change [5][50] - Dongyue's price target raised from HKD12.00 to HKD18.00, indicating a 50% increase [5][51] - **Earnings Forecasts**: - 2025-27E earnings for companies in the sector have been lifted, with specific increases for Dongyue (3-19%) and Sanmei (1-20%) [5][50][51] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Dongyue and Sanmei are trading at lower PE ratios compared to peers, suggesting potential for valuation upside as refrigerant prices continue to rise [39][68] Potential Risks - **Regulatory Changes**: Possible changes to the refrigerant quota policy in 2026 could impact supply dynamics [53] - **Market Competition**: The introduction of fourth-generation refrigerants may disrupt the pricing of third-generation refrigerants [53] - **Demand Fluctuations**: A potential decline in AC production in 2026 could negatively affect refrigerant demand [53] Additional Insights - **Long-term Outlook**: The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain elevated prices due to stable supply conditions and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [54][66] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Capchem are positioned to benefit from the exit of 3M from PFAS production, potentially capturing market share in fluorinated liquids [29][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the chemical sector, particularly in the refrigerant market, and the implications for specific companies within the industry.

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry showed a slight increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and net profit of 756 billion yuan, a growth of 2.0% [1][12] - The overall gross profit margin for the industry decreased to 13.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.0%, also down 0.1 percentage points [1][12] - The chemical product price index (CCPI) experienced a decline of 4.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting weak support from raw materials and excess production capacity [1][40] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the industry achieved a revenue of 588.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0% [2] - The operating profit for Q2 2025 was 48.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year but an increase of 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.2 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Construction and Fixed Assets - The growth rate of construction in progress for the basic chemical industry showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% in Q2 2025 [3] - Fixed asset scale increased, with total fixed assets reaching 14,222 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable demand and marginal supply changes, such as MDI, amino acids, and fertilizers [4] - Specific companies recommended include Jinhe Industrial for sucralose, Yangnong Chemical for pesticides, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [4] R&D and Financial Metrics - The average R&D expenditure for companies in the industry was notably high in sectors like polyurethane and fluorine chemicals, with R&D rates exceeding 4.5% in certain sub-industries [12][20] - The overall financial metrics indicate a mixed performance across various sub-industries, with some showing significant growth while others faced declines [35][37]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft plan for the total allocation of ozone-depleting substances for 2026, indicating a reduction in production and internal use quotas for HCFCs and HFCs, which may sustain high industry prosperity due to supply constraints and strong demand in air conditioning markets [1] Group 1: Quota Adjustments - For HCFCs, the production and internal use quotas for 2026 are set at 151,400 tons and 79,700 tons, respectively, representing a decrease of 12,200 tons and 6,300 tons compared to 2025 [1] - Specifically, the R22 production and internal use quotas for 2026 are 146,100 tons and 78,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 3,000 tons and 2,900 tons from 2025 [1] Group 2: HFCs Quota Changes - In the case of HFCs, the production quota for R245fa is increased by 3,000 tons for 2026 compared to 2025, while the R41 production quota is raised by 50 tons, with other varieties remaining unchanged [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The quota system for refrigerants HCFCs and HFCs maintains supply constraints, combined with high product concentration, a favorable competitive landscape, and robust demand from household and automotive air conditioning, suggesting that the industry's high prosperity may continue [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a strong performance, with the industry index outperforming major stock indices in August 2025. The fluorochemical index rose by 16.75% compared to the previous month, indicating robust market dynamics [1][15]. - Main refrigerant prices are expected to continue stable growth, driven by limited supply and strong demand. The average prices for R32 and R134a are projected to rise in the coming months [2][22]. - The development of liquid cooling technology is expected to significantly boost the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods are becoming less effective [4][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the fluorochemical index reached 1681.54 points, up 16.75% from the end of July, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 7.77 percentage points [1][15]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of major refrigerants are on an upward trend due to supply constraints. R32 is expected to average 62,000 CNY/ton in September to November, while R134a is projected to average 52,000 CNY/ton [2][22][24]. - Export data shows a mixed performance, with R32 exports increasing by 13% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [35]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rise of AI technology and increased server power density are driving the shift towards liquid cooling solutions, which are more efficient than traditional air cooling methods. This trend is expected to enhance the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants [4][62][66]. 4. Regulatory Environment - China's commitment to the Montreal Protocol includes significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage, which will impact the refrigerant market dynamics positively in the long term [71][74]. 5. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players in the fluorochemical sector, with strong growth prospects due to their leading positions in refrigerant quotas and advanced technologies [4][8][70].