氟化工：制冷剂主升进行时，AI 液冷再蓄势 20250926 制冷剂行业在不同国家之间有何差异？ 制冷剂行业的全球政策对所有国家都有严格约束，但发达国家优先进行控制， 而发展中国家则稍晚一些。发展中国家分为两组，中国属于第一组，与大部分 发展中国家在同一时间点，即 2020 年至 2022 年，以这三年的平均使用量作 制冷剂市场集中度高，R32 和 R134a 等主要品种均由少数龙头企业控 制约 90%的市场份额，具备较强的稳定性，使得行业能够通过精细管理 实现稳定发展，成为反内卷标杆。 液冷技术作为新兴应用领域，对制冷剂需求不断增长，国内氟化工龙头 企业积极布局电子氟化液和液冷相关业务，有望成为液冷赛道的重要供 应商，推动制冷剂需求持续增长。 为基线值。这意味着三代制冷剂在这段时间内的平均使用量加上二代制冷剂尚 未淘汰完毕所预留出来的市场空间，共同构成了供给上限，即 18.5 亿吨二氧 化碳当量。 中国在全球制冷剂市场中的地位如何？ 中国在全球三代制冷剂供应中占据绝对主导地位，供应量超过全球总需求的 80%。为了便于管理，中国按照品种发放配额，并根据 GWP 值计算总量。在 执行过程中，如果某个品种需求增长 ...

Group 1 - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with domestic policies frequently mentioning "anti-involution" and overseas chemical companies in Europe and America shutting down or exiting capacity due to rising raw material costs and Asian production impacts [1] - Short-term geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty in overseas supply, while China is expected to reshape the global chemical landscape in the long term due to its cost and technological advantages [1] - Key sectors to focus on include organic silicon, membrane materials, chlor-alkali, and dyes, as well as leading companies in coal chemical, fluorinated refrigerants, and pesticides [1] Group 2 - The three generations of refrigerants are experiencing price increases due to quota restrictions and rising demand, with significant price increases for R32, R134a, and R125 within the year, leading to substantial profit growth for related companies [1] - The demand for health additives and sugar substitutes is rising under new consumption trends, indicating a potential recovery in the food additives industry [1] - The self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials is approximately 56%, with accelerated domestic substitution creating development opportunities in areas such as photoresists and high-end engineering plastics [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including specialty chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides, reflecting the overall performance of high-growth and technologically advanced chemical companies [1] - The index components are primarily companies with leading advantages in specific chemical products or technologies, emphasizing new materials and fine chemicals, which showcase the innovation and development dynamics of the chemical industry [1]

根据产业在线数据，2025年9月到2025年11月，我国家用空调排产总量分别为1075.00万台、1088.01万 台、1220.28万台，同比增速分别为-11.98%、-22.60%和-19.70%。根据百川盈孚数据，2024年6月以来， R32出口量较往年有提升趋势。一方面受到海外需求及补库提升，另一方面国内空调企业海外产能提升 带动了制冷剂出口量的上行。 行业要闻 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，2025年二代制冷剂配额削减，三代制冷剂生产配额总量保持 在基线值，二代、三代制冷剂供需关系仍然趋紧。2025年以来制冷剂价格稳步上行，8月、9月制冷剂价 格持续提升，根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月19日，三代制冷剂R32、R134a、R125价格本年度分别 上涨44.19%、22.35%、8.33%。2025年上半年，制冷剂生产企业巨化股份(600160.SH)、三美股份 (603379.SH)、永和股份(605020.SH)归母净利润分别同比增长145.84%、159.22%、140.82%。制冷剂行 业有望维持高景气，相关生产企业盈利能力有望持续提升。 东海证券主要观点如下： 2025年8月 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a rising trend in the prices of third-generation refrigerants as of August 29, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July [1][2] - The price of R22 has also increased to 35,500 yuan/ton, marking a 1.43% rise from the previous month and an 18.33% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights a decline in domestic air conditioning production from September to November 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 11.98%, 22.60%, and 19.70% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September, where R32, R134a, and R125 saw increases of 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - Major companies in the refrigerant production sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., reported substantial year-on-year net profit growths of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemical Sector, specifically focusing on fluorochemicals and refrigerants - **Key Trends**: Significant price increases in refrigerants, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from the air conditioning (AC) industry and emerging liquid cooling technologies for data centers Core Insights - **Refrigerant Price Increases**: - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for refrigerants R32 and R134a have increased by 43% and 22% respectively year-to-date as of September 12, 2025, with R32 reaching Rmb61.5k/t and R134a at Rmb52.0k/t [2][8] - ASPs for R22 have also risen, reflecting a 5% increase [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - Strong supplier pricing power due to quota constraints and a favorable competitive landscape [3][8] - Anticipated continued demand growth for R32, particularly as it is used in most new household ACs, replacing R410a [3][17] - **Liquid Cooling Demand**: - AI-driven demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers is expected to create new growth opportunities for fluorochemical companies [4][25] - Two-phase cold plate liquid cooling and immersion cooling are highlighted as key technologies, with R134a being a suitable coolant for these applications [4][26] Company-Specific Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: - Price targets for Dongyue, Sanmei, Capchem, and Tinci have been raised due to improved earnings forecasts and favorable pricing outlooks for refrigerants [5][42] - Sanmei's price target increased from Rmb62.60 to Rmb85.60, reflecting a 37% change [5][50] - Dongyue's price target raised from HKD12.00 to HKD18.00, indicating a 50% increase [5][51] - **Earnings Forecasts**: - 2025-27E earnings for companies in the sector have been lifted, with specific increases for Dongyue (3-19%) and Sanmei (1-20%) [5][50][51] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Dongyue and Sanmei are trading at lower PE ratios compared to peers, suggesting potential for valuation upside as refrigerant prices continue to rise [39][68] Potential Risks - **Regulatory Changes**: Possible changes to the refrigerant quota policy in 2026 could impact supply dynamics [53] - **Market Competition**: The introduction of fourth-generation refrigerants may disrupt the pricing of third-generation refrigerants [53] - **Demand Fluctuations**: A potential decline in AC production in 2026 could negatively affect refrigerant demand [53] Additional Insights - **Long-term Outlook**: The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain elevated prices due to stable supply conditions and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [54][66] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Capchem are positioned to benefit from the exit of 3M from PFAS production, potentially capturing market share in fluorinated liquids [29][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the chemical sector, particularly in the refrigerant market, and the implications for specific companies within the industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained upward trend in demand, with leading companies showing significant profit growth in H1 2025. The production quotas for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced, and third-generation refrigerants will be subject to production quotas, tightening supply. This, combined with a steady recovery in downstream demand, is optimizing the supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant market [1][2] - The price of refrigerants has been rising, leading to substantial increases in profitability for major companies. For instance, in H1 2025, the net profits of major domestic refrigerant companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group increased by 146.97%, 159.22%, 140.80%, and 153.28% respectively [1] - The price differences for third-generation refrigerants have significantly increased, with R32 prices rising by 15.24% since early July 2025 and 40.70% since the beginning of the year. The price difference for R32 reached 42,761 yuan/ton, reflecting a 19.68% increase since early July and a 66.79% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - Leading refrigerant companies are accelerating their entry into the liquid cooling sector, driven by tightening environmental regulations and increasing demand for AI computing power. Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are investing in high-value-added liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to benefit from the growing AI computing needs and domestic substitution opportunities [3][4] - The liquid cooling technology market is projected to grow significantly, with global market sizes expected to reach 4.5 billion USD in 2025 and 19.4 billion USD by 2032, representing a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is in a high prosperity cycle, with major companies reporting strong performance due to supply constraints and rising prices [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in downstream demand, which is expected to further support price increases in the refrigerant market [2] Price Trends - The report tracks significant price increases for key refrigerants, with R32, R125, and R134a showing notable price growth in 2025 [2][18] - The price of R32 reached 60,500 yuan/ton, marking a 40.70% increase since the beginning of 2025 [2] Company Developments - Major companies are expanding their operations into the liquid cooling market, with Juhua Co. planning to produce 5,000 tons/year of cooling liquid and Sanmei Co. launching a 19,000 tons/year electronic-grade fluorinated liquid project [3][4] - The transition to liquid cooling technologies is seen as a strategic move to capture growth opportunities in the AI sector and to leverage existing technological advantages [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 7.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, up 20.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 620 million yuan, a significant increase of 67.8% [4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.6 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.1% and a year-on-year increase of 45.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 460 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.6% and a year-on-year increase of 148.9% [4]. - The company has seen strong performance in its refrigerant and specialty products segments, with significant growth in sales volume and pricing [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 7.76 billion yuan, with a net profit of 640 million yuan. The Q2 results showed a total revenue of 4.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 460 million yuan [4]. - The company’s basic and diluted earnings per share for the latest period were both 0.50 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 4.04% [3]. Business Segments - The refrigerant segment saw sales of 56,800 tons in the first half of 2025, with an average selling price of 43,800 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.82% [6]. - The specialty products segment reported a net profit of 110 million yuan, benefiting from the growth in the commercial aerospace sector [6]. - The electronic gas segment achieved sales of 4,947 tons, with an average selling price of 95,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.05% [6]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.46 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26, 19, and 15 times [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants and improved industry dynamics due to quota management policies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 999.5 million yuan, up 159.22% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.32%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [1]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 594 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 158.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.33%, also a record high for a single quarter [1]. Industry Dynamics - The price of fluorinated refrigerants has been on the rise since early 2024 due to quota management policies, leading to improved competition in the industry [1][2]. - The average prices for the refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 in Q2 2025 were 49,811 yuan/ton, 47,689 yuan/ton, and 45,270 yuan/ton, representing year-on-year increases of 49.63%, 52.41%, and 8.35% respectively [2]. - As of September 1, 2025, the prices for these refrigerants reached 60,000 yuan/ton, 51,500 yuan/ton, and 45,500 yuan/ton, indicating a continued upward trend [2]. Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company's production of fluorinated refrigerants was 88,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.51%, while external sales were 62,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.27% [1]. - The average selling price for external sales was 39,038 yuan/ton, a significant year-on-year increase of 56.53%, contributing to revenue of 2.419 billion yuan from refrigerants, up 46.59% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing favorable cycle in the refrigerant industry, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being adjusted to 2.049 billion yuan, 2.460 billion yuan, and 2.893 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The company holds significant production quotas for various refrigerants, including R22, R32, R134a, and R125, with domestic market shares of 5.25%, 11.81%, 23.97%, and 18.43% respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily driven by the recovery in refrigerant prices and stable sales volume of core products [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved total revenue of 13.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.05 billion yuan, up 146.97% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.03 billion yuan, reflecting a 155.23% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 7.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.93% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 1.24 billion yuan, up 138.82% year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The average selling price of refrigerants in 1H25 was 39,400 yuan/ton, with sales volume at 154,600 tons, showing a price increase of 61.88% but a volume decrease of 4.19% year-on-year [2] - Non-refrigerant chemical products faced intense competition, leading to price declines and reduced profitability [2] - The prices of fluoropolymer materials, food packaging materials, and petrochemical materials fell by 2.80%, 2.55%, and 8.66% respectively, negatively impacting overall profitability [2] Industry Outlook - The upward trend in refrigerant prices is expected to continue into 2025 due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024 [3] - As of August 28, 2025, the domestic market prices for key refrigerants R22, R32, R125, and R134a increased by 7.58%, 38.37%, 8.33%, and 21.18% respectively since the beginning of the year [3] - The company, as a leading player in the refrigerant market, is positioned to benefit significantly from these price increases [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is viewed positively due to the favorable supply constraints and concentrated industry structure, which support the price uptrend of refrigerants [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.91 billion, 5.66 billion, and 6.66 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 150.47%, 15.29%, and 17.60% respectively [4] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 20X, 17X, and 15X for the respective years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising prices of refrigerants and improved industry dynamics [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved total revenue of 2.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.58% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 999.5 million yuan, up 159.22% - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 986 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 163.61% - In 2Q25, total revenue was 1.616 billion yuan, a 49.36% increase year-on-year - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2Q25 was 594 million yuan, up 158.98% - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2Q25 was 590 million yuan, a rise of 168.64% [1]. Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The average selling price of refrigerants in 1H25 was 39,000 yuan/ton, a 56.5% increase year-on-year, while external sales volume was 62,000 tons, down 6.3% - In 2Q25, the average selling price was 40,300 yuan/ton, a 55.1% increase year-on-year, with external sales volume at 34,900 tons, up 3.1% [1]. - The refrigerant market is experiencing upward price trends due to supply constraints from production quotas and increased domestic and international demand driven by policies and urbanization [2]. Industry Outlook - The refrigerant industry is expected to continue its upward trend in pricing through 2025, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and industry competition [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its integrated supply chain, with ongoing projects in lithium hexafluorophosphate and various fluorinated compounds [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the refrigerant market, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 2.147 billion, 2.655 billion, and 3.185 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 175.83%, 23.65%, and 19.93% respectively [3].