积极完善上下游产业链一体化布局。报告期内，公司稳步推进各项目建设，福建东莹已建成的1500 吨/ 年六氟磷酸锂产能处于试生产及技改阶段。浙江三美5000 吨/年聚全氟乙丙烯及5000 吨/年聚偏氟乙烯 项目、年智能分装3,500 万瓶罐制冷剂生产线及配套设施项目已完成主体工程，处于设备安装阶段。同 时，公司稳步推进浙江三美的科创中心（办公大楼）、AHF 技改项目、催化剂项目、中试基地项目、 环氧氯丙烷项目，重庆嘉利合氟化工一体化（一期）项目、甲烷氯化物及四氯乙烯技改项目等。 投资建议：供给强约束叠加行业格局集中背景下，二、三代制冷剂正处于景气上行周期，公司作为制冷 剂头部企业，盈利中枢有望持续上行。预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为21.47、26.55、31.85 亿 元，同比增速分别为+175.83%、+23.65%、+19.93%，对应PE 分别为16X、13X、11X。维持"强烈推 荐"评级。 风险提示：1.三代制冷剂政策变化；2.下游空调、汽车产量不及预期；3.原材料价格波动；4.新项目进展 不及预期等。 公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，1H25 业绩同比大幅增长。国家对第二、三代氟制冷剂均 ...

国内外政策催化大炼化行业关注度提升。根据中国石油和化工网信息，韩国石化产业开 工率持续下行，行业供应过剩问题亟待解决。韩国产业通商资源部决定对韩国十家最大石化 企业已同意进行业务重组，包括大幅削减270-370万吨石脑油裂解产能，并且政府要求各公 司必须在年底前提交具体的减产方案。同时，我国石化行业"反内卷"预期提升，有望对200 万吨及以下炼油产能以及老旧设备进行出清，进一步提高了炼化行业的关注度。 2.核心观点 民爆行业："十四五"收官在即，行业整合加速；雅鲁藏布江项目、三峡水运新通道、浙 赣粤运河等项目有望拉动内需增长；"一带一路"战略持续推进，有望带动民爆企业开拓海外 需求。建议关注：易普力、江南化工、广东宏大、国泰集团和凯龙股份等。 农药：行业重点企业发生安全生产事故，或将对行业供给带来扰动。建议关注：扬农化 工、兴发集团等。 太平洋近日发布化工行业周报：根据百川盈孚数据，本周草甘膦下游需求良好，海外非 洲等地区制剂订单持续释放，工厂水剂、颗粒剂订单充足。截至8月24日，草甘膦价格为 26899元/吨，较上周价格上涨200元/吨；毛利为3964.1元/吨，较上周上涨239元/吨。 以下为研究报告摘要 ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（8/18-8/24）： 制冷剂、草甘膦等高景气延续，国内外政策催化大炼化行业关注度提升 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 24/8/26 24/11/6 25/1/17 25/3/30 25/6/10 25/8/21 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<蓝晓科技（300487.SZ）：业绩稳健 增长，生命科学板块业务值得期 待>>--2025-08-24 <<业绩符合预期，内蒙新产能贡献显 著>>--2025-08-24 << 化 工 新 材 料 周 报 （ 20250818- 20250824）：生物航煤、制冷剂价格 上涨，普鲁士蓝材料等价格回落>>-- 2025-08-24 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 草甘膦等农药价格持续上涨。根据百川盈孚数据，本周草甘膦下 ...

Group 1 - Glyphosate and other pesticide prices continue to rise, with glyphosate price at 26,699 CNY/ton as of August 17, up 300 CNY/ton from the previous week, and gross profit at 3,725.1 CNY/ton, up 317.9 CNY/ton [1][2] - Glyphosate weekly production is 0.7 million tons, down 16.24% from the previous week, and inventory is 28,500 tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons [2] - Prices of R32 and R134a refrigerants are increasing due to steady demand driven by high summer temperatures, with R134a at 51,000 CNY/ton, up 500 CNY/ton, and R32 at 57,500 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - Polyester filament and viscose staple fiber prices have slightly rebounded, with polyester POY at 6,775 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY/ton, and FDY at 7,100 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton [3] - Viscose staple fiber price is 12,950 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton, with manufacturers operating at high capacity due to improved demand [3] Group 3 - The civil explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its end, with projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo project expected to boost domestic demand [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is anticipated to help civil explosive companies expand overseas demand, with companies like Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, and Guangdong Hongda recommended for attention [4] Group 4 - Safety production accidents at key pesticide companies may disrupt industry supply, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Xingfa Group suggested for monitoring [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of third-generation refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant growth in the first half of the year. The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants remains at baseline levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand relationship [7][69]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. are expected to see substantial profit increases, reflecting a high level of industry prosperity [69]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of July 31, 2025, the prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 55,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 50,000 CNY/ton, respectively, showing increases of 4.76%, 0%, and 2.04% compared to the end of April [7][16]. - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in July 2025 has increased by 49.68%, 66.11%, and 32.74% year-on-year, respectively [17]. Market Trends - The report notes a decline in air conditioning production in August 2025, with expected further declines in September and October, with production figures of 11.44 million units, 10.66 million units, and 12.36 million units, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -2.79%, -12.70%, and -12.10% [39]. - The report also mentions a decrease in refrigerator production, with August 2025 figures at 7.62 million units, down 9.50% year-on-year [40]. Company Performance - Zhongxin Fluorine Materials expects a net profit of 4.76 million to 6.08 million CNY for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 23.13 million CNY in the same period last year [60]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.445 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, with a net profit of 271 million CNY, up 140.82% [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as companies related to fluorine chemical raw materials like Jinshi Resources [69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the refrigerant industry [13]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a price increase under quota control since 2024, with significant price rises observed for various refrigerants. The sustainability and potential for further price increases are areas of market concern, which the report aims to explore [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the price increase is not driven by traditional supply-demand mismatches but rather reflects a new operational model in the industry. The supply side is characterized by high concentration and limited capacity for new entrants, particularly in China, which holds a dominant position in production and market share [8][40]. Summary by Sections Price Sustainability - The sustainability of price increases is linked to the current position of products within their cycles. The report suggests that refrigerants have moved beyond traditional cyclical logic, indicating a potential for long-term price increases [8][36]. - The supply side is constrained, with a high concentration of market players and limited ability to increase supply globally. This is further supported by the fact that the domestic market has significant production power [8][40]. Price Potential - The report discusses the potential for price increases, noting that the historical price elasticity of refrigerants allows for significant price tolerance. For instance, R32's price has risen from 1.70 million yuan/ton to 5.40 million yuan/ton, reflecting a 217.6% increase [23]. - The report argues that the long-term production costs of alternative refrigerants (like R1234yf) do not set a ceiling for the prices of existing refrigerants, suggesting that the price of third-generation refrigerants could continue to rise [9][69]. Long-term Investment Value - The report concludes that the refrigerant industry holds substantial long-term investment value, with companies increasingly approaching traditional chemical product valuation peaks. The ongoing price increases and the unique market dynamics suggest that related companies may be undervalued [10][11]. - Specific companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for continued investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [7][11]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with expectations for air conditioning production to rise in August due to high summer temperatures [2][5]. - The report highlights a significant demand for refrigerants driven by national subsidy policies and growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [7][60]. - The supply constraints from regulatory policies are expected to maintain a favorable pricing environment for refrigerants like R22 and R32, with long-term price increases anticipated [7][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance in July - As of July 30, the fluorochemical index stood at 1471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points [18][20]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Price Trends - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant increases in March, while R22 prices remained stable in the summer months [24][25]. - Future price forecasts for R32 are projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton for August to October, respectively [25][26]. 2.2 Export Data - From January to June 2025, R32 exports increased by 14%, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [34]. - The average export price for R32 was 44,449 yuan per ton as of June 2025 [34]. 2.3 Production and Operating Rates - Domestic air conditioning production in August 2025 is projected at 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [6]. 3. Compliance with the Montreal Protocol - The report discusses China's commitment to reducing HCFCs and HFCs, with significant reductions planned for 2025 and 2030 [60][61]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - The report notes a strong performance in air conditioning production in the first half of 2025, with a total of 41.08 million units exported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][6]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted, with profit growth expected due to favorable market conditions [11][10].

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Chemicals Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Chemicals Sector - **Key Chemicals Discussed**: MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), Refrigerants, Electrolytes, Urea MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) - **Earnings Improvement**: MDI earnings improved in H125 due to voluntary production cuts by producers to protect pricing, despite weaker domestic demand and export challenges from tariffs and anti-dumping measures [2][10] - **Pricing Outlook**: MDI prices are expected to trend up slowly in Q325, with potential strain in Q425 due to new capacity launches and contract price bidding. The average selling price (ASP) is projected to be Rmb15,800/t in H225, down 4.8% from H125 [12] - **Capacity Developments**: Major capacity additions include Wanhua's Fujian Phase II (800ktpa) and other expansions from BASF and Covestro. Hualu-Hengsheng is also progressing on its TDI project [11][9] - **Export Challenges**: Tariff and anti-dumping impacts are expected to persist, but Wanhua is positioned to mitigate some effects by exporting from European facilities [13] Refrigerants - **Price Increases**: Major refrigerants saw price increases in H125, with R32 and R134a rising significantly due to strong demand from household and automotive sectors. R32 prices are expected to reach Rmb51,000/Rmb65,000/t in 2025/2026 [15][16] - **Weakness in R22/R125**: R22 and R125 prices are under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, with cautious outlooks for H225 [15][16] Electrolytes - **Cautious Price Outlook**: The electrolyte expert projects prices to fluctuate between Rmb15,000-20,000/t in H225, primarily due to oversupply and strong bargaining power of downstream companies [4][17] - **Capacity Growth**: LiPF6 capacity is expected to increase by 8% to 424ktpa in 2025, with current utilization rates remaining low [18] - **Capacity Exits**: It may take 2-3 years for smaller capacity exits to occur, as marginal firms continue to operate despite losses [19] Urea - **Export Dynamics**: Urea exports are crucial for balancing domestic supply-demand. A quota of 3.5mt has been granted for July-October, with potential for additional quotas [5][23] - **Pricing Trends**: Urea ASP is expected to rise to Rmb1,800-1,880/t in July-August due to export and agricultural demand, but may drop to Rmb1,680-1,780/t later in the year due to increased supply [25] - **Capacity Expansion**: Domestic urea capacity is projected to grow, with total capacity expected to reach 79.11mtpa by end-2025 [21] Additional Insights - **Market Risks**: The chemicals sector faces risks from price fluctuations due to international oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainties, and rapid capacity additions that could weaken fundamentals [26] - **Regulatory Environment**: The Chinese government is promoting anti-involution policies, which may impact the operational landscape for chemical firms [24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the chemicals sector in China.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in profits due to rising refrigerant prices and a gradual recovery in specialty product orders, with Q2 2025 performance exceeding expectations [8] - The integration of Sinochem Blue Sky has enhanced the company's profitability, and the refrigerant business is expected to provide earnings elasticity [8] - The company is expanding its high-end chemical materials into consumer markets, which is anticipated to drive new growth [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 15,666 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.2% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 1,606 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 52.4% [7] - Earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.24 yuan, with a gross margin of 26.1% [7] Performance Highlights - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 5.90-6.50 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59-76% [8] - In Q2 2025, the estimated net profit is projected to be 4.05-4.65 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 119-151% [8] - The average prices of key refrigerants have increased significantly, contributing to the company's strong performance [8] Market Comparison - The company's market capitalization is 27,425 million, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.9 [2] - The stock has shown a price range of 35.33 to 23.57 over the past year, indicating volatility [2] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage through integrated operations and ongoing project developments [8] - Key projects include the establishment of a high-performance civil aviation tire production line and advancements in fluoropolymer and lithium battery materials [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the fluorochemical industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including raw materials like fluorite, refrigerants, and high-end fluorinated materials [22][23] - The refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by high temperatures and improved demand, particularly in the air conditioning sector [21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 0.96% during the week of July 14-18, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.54% [6][25] - The average price of fluorite (97% wet powder) remained stable at 3,200 CNY/ton as of July 18, 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.61% [7][32] Refrigerant Market - As of July 18, 2025, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 54,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 50,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 49,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 35,000 CNY/ton [20][24] - The report highlights that R32 and R134a prices have increased by 50.00% and 61.29% respectively compared to 2024 [45] Company Performance - Companies such as Dongyangguang, Juhua, and Sanmei are expected to report significant profit increases for the first half of 2025, with growth rates ranging from 136% to 192.81% [9][10] - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua, Sanmei, and Haohua Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the fluorochemical sector [10][22]