ab 18 November 2025 Global Research China Chemical Sector MDI, refrigerant, electrolyte and TiO2 experts call takeaways MDI: expert estimates a pMDI price range of Rmb14.5-16k/t in 2026 The TiO2 expert (replay) indicates domestic marginal TiO2 producers have been loss- making YTD, as pricing remained subdued amid oversupply coupled with elevated costs. Domestic TiO2 capacity additions YTD totalled 230ktpa, but 9M25 exports slid 6% YoY amid anti-dumping headwinds on demand. As per the expert, a total of 200k ...

截至2025年11月17日 09:42，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)上涨0.83%，成分股金发科技(600143) 上涨5.80%，盐湖股份(000792)上涨5.40%，彤程新材(603650)上涨5.01%，兴发集团(600141)上涨 4.15%，藏格矿业(000408)上涨2.47%。化工ETF(159870)上涨0.77%，最新价报0.79元。 化工板块整体走高，消息面上，储能需求持续释放，催化化工行情。受益于化工涨价潮影响，磷矿石价 格也持续高位运行。氟化工方面，据氟务在线跟踪，R134a因采购需求集中，企业持续上调报价，目前 报盘已达60000元/吨，较前上涨6000元/吨。R125受年内配额调整影响，企业剩余配额有限，目前实单 成交价约46000元/吨。部分小企业配额已基本消化，市场货源偏紧，短期走势坚挺。 开源证券指出，R32尽管近期受空调企业排产回调影响，流通市场需求偏弱，贸易商存在让利出货行 为，但主流成交仍维持在61000-62000元/吨。预计企业报价将在需求回暖后陆续上调。综合来看，当前 制冷剂市场中，R32与R134a维持坚挺向上趋势，R125短期稳健运行，而R143 ...

开源证券近日发布氟化工行业周报：本周（11月10日-11月14日）氟化工指数上涨 7.71%，跑赢上证综指7.89%。本周（11月10日-11月14日）氟化工指数收于5006.51点，上涨 7.71%，跑赢上证综指7.89%，跑赢沪深300指数8.80%，跑赢基础化工指数4.15%，跑赢新材 料指数7.39%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（11月10日-11月14日）行情回顾 市场中，R32与R134a维持坚挺向上趋势，R125短期稳健运行，而R143a、R507、R404等品 种则表现偏弱，整体产业链呈现结构性分化格局。 公告&要闻：昊华气体三氟化氮项目成功投产；澳大利亚制冷剂或面临涨价【昊华气 体】昊华气体6000吨三氟化氮项目成功投产，该项目总投资11.3亿元，项目全面建成后，预 计可实现年产值7亿元。 【制冷剂】澳大利亚制冷剂协会称，目前制冷剂的进口量与所需量之间已存在显著缺 口，制冷剂价格在短短几年内已上涨两倍，且未来可能继续涨价。 受益标的 推荐标的：金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、昊华科技等。其他受益标的：东阳光、永 和股份、东岳集团、新宙邦等。 本周氟化工指数上涨7.71%，跑赢上证综指7.89 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of R134a has exceeded expectations, indicating a significant value proposition in the refrigerant sector, and suggests that long-term positioning is timely [4] - The fluorochemical index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 7.71% and outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing upward trend in refrigerant prices, particularly for R134a, R32, and R125, while noting a structural differentiation in the market [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Industry Overview - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a positive trend, with R134a prices rising significantly due to concentrated purchasing demand, reaching 60,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton [9][22] - The overall market sentiment for fluorite is weak, with prices for 97% fluorite powder averaging 3,391 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous week [19][33] 2. Refrigerant Market Trends - As of November 14, refrigerant prices are as follows: R32 at 63,000 yuan/ton, R125 at 45,500 yuan/ton, R134a at 55,000 yuan/ton, and R410a at 53,500 yuan/ton, with R134a showing a weekly increase of 1.85% [21][24] - The report notes that the refrigerant market is characterized by a strong upward trend for R32 and R134a, while R125 remains stable, and other products like R404 and R507 are experiencing downward pressure [22][23] 3. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [11][23]

中信建投（601066）发布研报称，我国化工品价格已经连续下行4年，反内卷政策/协会自律行动纷纷出 台，周期拐点或渐行渐近。我们认为在供给、需求都有边际改善预期的情况下，关注供给格局改善和内 需相关的顺周期板块。其中，氟化工关注东岳集团等。开源证券认为，随着碳达峰、碳中和战略的持续 推进，二代制冷剂R22即将大规模削减，HFCs有望受益于国家政策实现渗透率快速提升。 消息面上，据钢联数据，R32制冷剂价格高位持稳，R134a制冷剂高位续涨。根据百川盈孚数据，截至 10月31日，R32、R125、R410a、R134a价格较年初分别上涨46.51%、8.33%、27.83%、27.06%。 东岳集团(00189)盘中涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.31%，报11.12港元，成交额4.25亿港元。 ...

中信建投发布研报称，我国化工品价格已经连续下行4年，反内卷政策/协会自律行动纷纷出台，周期拐 点或渐行渐近。我们认为在供给、需求都有边际改善预期的情况下，关注供给格局改善和内需相关的顺 周期板块。其中，氟化工关注东岳集团等。开源证券认为，随着碳达峰、碳中和战略的持续推进，二代 制冷剂R22即将大规模削减，HFCs有望受益于国家政策实现渗透率快速提升。 消息面上，据钢联数据，R32制冷剂价格高位持稳，R134a制冷剂高位续涨。根据百川盈孚数据，截至 10月31日，R32、R125、R410a、R134a价格较年初分别上涨46.51%、8.33%、27.83%、27.06%。 智通财经APP获悉，东岳集团(00189)盘中涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.31%，报11.12港元，成交额4.25亿港 元。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The 2026 allocation plan for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) has been released, indicating a continued reduction in production and usage quotas for HCFCs and HFCs [10][11] - The total production quota for HCFCs in 2026 is set at 151,416 tons, with a usage quota of 79,724 tons, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous years [2][12] - The room air conditioning sector will see a 70% reduction in usage quotas, while the commercial refrigeration sector will have a 67.5% reduction, consistent with 2025 [2][11] - The new quota scheme is expected to maintain a tight balance in the industry, with a projected increase in demand for R32 to compensate for reductions in R22 [21][22] Summary by Sections HCFCs Production and Usage Quotas - The production quota for HCFCs in 2026 is 151,416 tons, with a usage quota also at 79,724 tons, representing a reduction of 71.5% and 76.1% from baseline values respectively [11][12] - Specific reductions include HCFC-22 with a production quota of 146,068 tons, down by 3,000 tons from 2025 [12] HFCs Allocation and Adjustments - The allocation plan includes an increase of 3,000 tons for HFC-245fa and 50 tons for HFC-41 based on the demand for alternatives to HCFCs [3][15] - The maximum adjustment for any HFC's annual quota is capped at 30% of the allocated amount [15][16] Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The report indicates that the market for three generations of refrigerants remains tight, with companies likely to balance their adjustments across different refrigerant types rather than focusing on a single type [21][22] - Price increases for refrigerants have been significant, with R32 rising by 262% from early 2024 to current prices [22]

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 4.43 billion yuan (up 45.7% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.59 billion yuan (up 183.7% year-on-year) [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 1.60 billion yuan (up 60.3% year-on-year) and a net profit of 600 million yuan (up 236.6% year-on-year) [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 1.58 billion yuan (up 188.0% year-on-year) [1] - Q3 sales gross margin was 52.9% (up 21.8 percentage points year-on-year) and net profit margin was 36.9% (up 19.4 percentage points year-on-year) [3] Market Trends - Q3 refrigerant prices continued to rise, with an average tax-inclusive price of 41,300 yuan/ton (up 55.6% year-on-year) [2] - The total sales of air conditioners in Q3 were 40.34 million units (down 37.2% quarter-on-quarter and down 2.5% year-on-year) [2] Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota adjustment for 2026, increasing the adjustment ratio for different refrigerant types from 10% in 2025 to 30% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising demand for third-generation refrigerants, with projected earnings of 2.22 billion, 3.21 billion, and 3.67 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The refrigerant market remains on an upward trend despite short-term information disturbances, indicating that the main upward movement is still ongoing, and investors should seize the layout opportunities [4][18] - The fluorochemical industry chain has entered a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across various segments, including raw materials like fluorite, refrigerants, and high-end fluorinated materials [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorochemical index increased by 6.59% during the week of October 27 to October 31, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.47% [6][25] - The average market price for fluorite (97% wet powder) was 3,496 CNY/ton as of October 31, down 2.18% from the previous week [7][34] 2. Refrigerant Market - As of October 31, the prices for various refrigerants were as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 54,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 53,500 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton, with most prices remaining stable compared to the previous week [8][20] - The market for R32 and R134a shows a strong upward trend, while R125 is expected to remain stable in the short term [21] 3. Company Performance - Major companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyangguang reported significant profit growth in Q3 2025, with Juhua achieving a net profit of 3.248 billion CNY, up 160.22% year-on-year [9][10] - Recommended stocks include Jinsih Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, among others [10][23] 4. Market Dynamics - The fluorite market is currently experiencing a cautious atmosphere with low transaction volumes, as companies focus on digesting existing inventory [19][35] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by high inventory levels and strong performance in the sulfuric acid market, which adds pressure to fluorine chemical companies [19][35]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising prices of refrigerants and improved industry dynamics [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.429 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.72% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.591 billion yuan, up 183.66% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.580 billion yuan, reflecting a 188.03% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 1.601 billion yuan, a 60.29% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 596 million yuan, up 236.57% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 was 594 million yuan, a 240.40% increase year-on-year [1] Product Pricing and Sales - The average selling price of fluorinated refrigerants for the first three quarters was 39,800 yuan/ton, a 56.5% increase year-on-year, while external sales volume was 95,400 tons, down 1.88% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the average selling price was 41,300 yuan/ton, a 55.65% increase year-on-year, with external sales volume of 33,400 tons, up 7.45% year-on-year [1] Industry Trends - The third-generation refrigerants are experiencing an upward trend in demand due to supply constraints and improved industry competition [2] - The average prices for the main third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased significantly, with respective increases of 46.51%, 8.33%, and 27.06% since the beginning of the year [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the favorable market conditions as a leading player in the refrigerant industry [2] Strategic Developments - The company is actively enhancing its integrated supply chain, with ongoing projects in various stages of development, including lithium hexafluorophosphate production and several other chemical projects [2] - Key projects include a 1,500 tons/year lithium hexafluorophosphate facility, a 5,000 tons/year perfluoroalkylene project, and a smart filling production line for refrigerants [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the upward cycle in the refrigerant market, with projected net profits of 2.147 billion yuan, 2.653 billion yuan, and 3.176 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 175.83%, 23.54%, and 19.71% respectively [3] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16X, 13X, and 11X for the same period [3]