Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a stable execution of long-term contracts for air conditioning companies in Q1 2026, with rising prices for mainstream refrigerants and a focus on the recovery of fluoropolymer prices due to cost support and supply-demand improvements [1][6]. Group 1: Refrigerant Prices - In Q1 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are expected to continue rising, with R32 at 61,200 CNY/ton (up 1,000 CNY/ton, +1.66% from Q4 2025) and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton (up 1,900 CNY/ton, +3.57% from Q4 2025) [1]. - The expected price ranges for the upcoming week are approximately 62,000-63,000 CNY/ton for R32, 55,000-56,000 CNY/ton for R410A, and 56,000-57,000 CNY/ton for R134a [1]. Group 2: Production and Sales Data - In February 2026, total air conditioning production decreased by 31.6% year-on-year, significantly impacted by the timing of the Spring Festival [3]. - Domestic production in February 2026 was 4.555 million units (down 38.1% year-on-year), while export production was 6.93 million units (down 26.5% year-on-year) [3]. Group 3: Fluoropolymer Price Trends - The prices of fluoropolymers are on the rise due to ongoing cost increases and tight supply conditions, with PTFE prices ranging from 42,000 to 45,000 CNY/ton and PVDF prices for coating grade at 54,000-60,000 CNY/ton [4]. - The demand for fluoropolymers remains strong, with pre-holiday stockpiling intentions contributing to upward price pressure [4]. Group 4: Company Profit Forecasts - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) are expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101% [5]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020) anticipates a net profit of 530-630 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 111%-151% [5]. - Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) projects a net profit of 1.99-2.15 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth of 156%-176% [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance for mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125, with long-term price increases anticipated [6][7]. - Companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and leading refrigerant quotas are recommended for investment, including Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160), Dongyue Group (00189), and Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The performance of fluorochemical companies is strong, supported by stable demand and supply dynamics [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to tightening quota constraints, which are expected to sustain price increases [5][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index stood at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025. The index underperformed the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.95 percentage points but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices by 5.12 and 3.01 percentage points, respectively [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants are on the rise. R32 is expected to be priced at 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter, while R410A is projected at 55,100 CNY/ton, up 3.57% [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R134a, R125, and R32 have shown increases, with R22 reaching 17,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton, and R134a maintaining at 58,000 CNY/ton [24][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of the fluorochemical industry is characterized by tight overall supply and low inventory levels among companies, which supports price increases. The demand side shows continued interest in stockpiling ahead of the holiday season [4][9]. - The production quotas for refrigerants in 2026 indicate a slight increase in the production capacity for R32, R125, and R134a, while R143a and R152a quotas have been reduced [4][79]. 4. Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth of data centers is driving the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods are becoming insufficient. The market for liquid cooling solutions is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [64][70]. - Companies involved in the production of fluorinated liquids, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [73][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Juhua Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.54-3.94 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80%-101%. Dongyue Group and Sanmei Co. are also projected to see significant profit increases [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluoropolymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see stable execution of long-term contracts for refrigerants, with significant price increases noted for R32 and R410A [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index reached 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, while the chemical index rose by 12.72% [1][17]. - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index reported a 2.95% increase, indicating a positive trend in pricing for fluorochemical products [1][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants are on the rise, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen upward adjustments, with R22 now at 17,000 CNY/ton, up 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [2][24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming increasingly favored over traditional air cooling due to their superior efficiency [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [3][70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the refrigerant quotas for 2026, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report suggests that the tightening of refrigerant quotas will support long-term price stability and growth in the industry [4][74]. 5. Company Profit Forecasts - Major companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with Juhua's net profit projected to increase by 80%-101% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing rapid growth, with prices of fluorinated polymers continuing to rise. The industry index has shown a performance that outpaces the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see sustained price increases for mainstream refrigerants due to stable execution of long-term contracts by terminal air conditioning companies [2][5]. - The demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants is anticipated to increase due to the growth of liquid cooling technologies in data centers, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the fluorochemical index was at 2155.24 points, up 6.77% from the end of December 2025, indicating a strong performance relative to other indices [1][17]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - Long-term contract prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R410A have increased, with R32 priced at 61,200 CNY/ton and R410A at 55,100 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 1.66% and 3.57% respectively from the previous quarter [2][22]. - The domestic prices for R22, R125, and R134a have also seen increases, with R22 at 17,000 CNY/ton and R125 at 48,500 CNY/ton [24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The report highlights the urgent need for efficient cooling technologies in data centers, with liquid cooling solutions becoming a preferred choice due to their superior performance compared to traditional air cooling [3][64]. - The market for liquid cooling in data centers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.4% expected from 2019 to 2027 [70]. 4. Refrigerant Quota Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the 2026 refrigerant quotas, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [4][79]. - The report anticipates that the stringent quota policies will continue to support the long-term growth of refrigerant products [4][74]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts - Key companies in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are projected to achieve significant profit growth in 2025, with expected net profits increasing by 80%-176% year-on-year [4][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a decline of 1.88%, while its constituent stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Sanmei Co., and Juhua Co. have shown positive growth [1] - The petrochemical ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 1.43 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, with the latest share count reaching 1.692 billion and a total scale of 1.706 billion yuan [1] - The average price of the third-generation mainstream refrigerant R32 has stabilized at 63,000 yuan/ton since January 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 45%, while R134a has seen a 32% increase [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43%, indicating potential profit recovery from downstream chemical products [2] - The overall industry narrative is improving due to optimization of industry structure and supply-demand adjustments, suggesting a positive long-term outlook [2]

【制冷剂行业景气持续】智通财经2月4日电，传统制冷剂淡季，制冷剂行情维持稳中偏强运行。据百川 盈孚市场监测，2026年1月以来，第三代主流制冷剂R32均价稳定在6.3万元/吨，同比增长约45%； R134a市场均价稳定在5.8万元/吨，同比增长32%；截至2月3日，R125、R410a分别同比增长16%和 29%，并且这两种制冷剂自2025年四季度以来均出现持续上涨趋势。申万宏源认为，2026年各企业 HFCs配额已下发，在全球供给严格约束下，行业格局优化叠加下游需求的增长，将带来制冷剂价格和 价差的长周期向上，制冷剂作为功能性制剂，"刚需消费品"属性与"特需经营"商业模式的"基因"正在逐 步形成。 转自：智通财经 ...

开源证券近日发布氟化工行业周报：本周氟化工指数下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%。本周（1月26 日-1月30日）氟化工指数收于5062.85点，下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%，跑输沪深300指数5.06%， 跑输基础化工指数4.08%，跑赢新材料指数0.31%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（1月26日-1月30日）行情回顾 本周氟化工指数下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%。本周（1月26日-1月30日）氟化工指数收于5062.85 点，下跌4.98%，跑输上证综指4.54%，跑输沪深300指数5.06%，跑输基础化工指数4.08%，跑赢新材料 指数0.31%。 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为8.5~11亿元，同比增长45.78%~58.10%。【ST联创（300343）】 2025年预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为3000~4000万元，同比增长37.22%~82.96%。【中欣氟 材（002915）】2025年预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1600~2000万元，同比扭亏为盈。 【金石资源】公司收购诺亚氟化工股权已交割完成，并派出董事。 受益标的 推荐标的：金石资源、巨化股份、 ...

化学原料 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《制冷剂 R404、R507 打响新年上涨 第一枪，三美股份、永和股份业绩预 增—氟化工行业周报》-2026.1.18 《制冷剂长协价格延续上涨趋势，萤 石价格企稳，金石资源拟收购诺亚氟 化工股权 — 氟 化 工 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.12.28 《2026 年制冷剂配额下发，行情保持 趋势向上；PVDF 头部企业停产，有 望助推反转行情—氟化工行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a stable price trend for the third-generation refrigerants, with a potential new round of price increases on the horizon. Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Aohua Technology have announced profit increases for 2025 [4][19] - The industry is entering a long-term prosperity cycle, with significant growth potential across the entire fluorochemical value chain, from raw materials like fluorite to high-end fluorinated materials and fine chemicals [25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fluorite price has stabilized and is expected to gradually recover, with the average market price for 97% wet fluorite at 3,314 CNY/ton as of January 30, 2026, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [19][20] - The fluorochemical index decreased by 4.98% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.54% [6][38] Refrigerant Market - As of January 30, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants remained stable, with R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 50,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton [21][22] - The refrigerant market is entering a demand off-season, but there is potential for price adjustments as domestic demand increases, especially with low inventory levels and supply constraints [9][24] Company Announcements - Juhua Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 3.54 to 3.94 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 80% to 101%. Aohua Technology anticipates a net profit of 1.38 to 1.48 billion CNY, a growth of 30.96% to 40.44% [10] - Other companies such as Luxi Chemical and ST Lianchuang also forecast significant profit increases for 2025 [10] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Aohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhou Bang [11][25]

游戏 公司点 2026年01月30日 市场数据: 收盘价 (元) -年内最高/最低 (元) 42.00/21.96 市净率 股息率%(分红/股价) | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 106,208 | | --- | | 上证指数/深证成指 4,117.95/14,205.89 | | 11 100 date 1 11 2 1 - 1 1 + 1 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.57 | | 资产负债率% | 32.97 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 2,700/2,700 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxv@swsresearch.com 一年内股价与大 ...