智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，预计2026年Brent原油价格运行区间为60-70美元/桶，成 本端有望逐步止跌企稳。2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海外落后 产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。"十五五"规划建议稿"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国降息 周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。该行认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行业 或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 综合整治内卷式竞争，积极把握周期反转机会 赋能新质生产力，掘金新材料蓝海 1)PTA景气低位运行，行业反内卷呼声渐起，建议关注恒力石化、荣盛石化、新凤鸣、桐昆股份等。2) 涤纶长丝产能趋于集中，行业自律激发周期弹性，建议关注新凤鸣、桐昆股份、恒逸石化等。3)氨纶否 极泰来，行业集中度有望加速提升，建议关注华峰化学、新乡化纤。4)农药全球需求好转，底部价格品 种或迎反弹，建议关注扬农化工、润丰股份、江山股份、广信股份、利尔化学等。5)有机硅产能扩张步 入尾声，行业供需格局有望改善，建议关注合盛硅业、新安股份、东岳硅材等。6)挑战与 ...

化工板块今日（11月24日）延续回调态势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天低位震荡，盘中场内价格一度跌超2%，午后跌 幅收窄，截至发稿，跌0.39%。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工等前期热门板块跌幅居前。截至发稿，恩捷股份大跌超4%，宏达股份、川发龙蟒双双跌超3%，天赐材料、兴发集 团跌超2%，拖累板块走势。 开源证券指出，基础化工行业在"反内卷"政策推动下，新一轮供给侧改革呼之欲出，供需格局有望优化，龙头企业凭借规范管理和能耗优势将 扩大市场份额。农化制品中，磷化工、钾肥等子行业景气度较高，磷矿石价格维稳，钾肥需求稳增，国产产能稳步扩张。制冷剂行业进入配额 制后盈利显著修复，行业格局持续向好。化工资本开支接近尾声，供需修复进度或加快，行业有望迎来业绩和估值双重抬升。 从估值方面来看，数据显示，截至上个交易日（11月21日）收盘，化工ETF（516020）标的指数细分化工指数市净率为2.28倍，位于近10年来 38.04%分位点的相对低位，中长期配置性价比凸显。 展望后市，东莞证券指出，在"双碳"目标背景下，我国聚焦化工新材料、精细化工等前沿领域，出台一系列顶层设计，通过专项产业政策等措 施， ...

化工板块今日（11月24日）延续回调态势，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天低位震 荡，盘中场内价格一度跌超2%，午后跌幅收窄，截至发稿，跌0.39%。 风险提示：化工ETF被动跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于 2012.4.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中 提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举，不作为任何个股推荐，不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任 何在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只 作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另，本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅 读者任何形式的投资建议，亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。投资人应当认 真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金的风险收益 特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理 的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。根据基金管理人的评估，化工ETF风险等级为R3-中 风险， ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 12 月行业配置关注：产能出清与景气改善的线索 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 12 月） 过去一个月市场在美联储降息预期降温、AI 泡沫担忧、涨价行情持续演绎等多重 因素影响下震荡下行，周期板块及防御行业表现较好，TMT、机械等行业跌幅居 前。展望 12 月份，行业配置重点关注"库存低位企稳+产能结构优化+景气持续 改善"的领域。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和 赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注非银、电力设备（电池、逆变器、风电设备）、 国防军工、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁等。 【本期关注】产能出清与景气改善的线索 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《11 月行业配置关注：三季报 业绩与"十五五"规划指引》 《10 月行业配置关注：高景气 持续与困境反转的线索》 《9 月行业配置关注：美联储降 息与 PPI 止跌的交易线索》 《8 月行业配置关注：反内卷与 中报业绩改善的线索》 《7 月行业配置关注：哪些领域 中报业绩有望高增或边际改善》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索——A ...

爱建证券近日发布光储行业周报：过去一周（11.8-11.14），基础化工指数涨跌幅为2.61%，沪深300指 数涨跌幅为-1.08%，基础化工板块跑赢沪深300指数3.69个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第9位。基础化 工子行业涨跌幅靠前的有：氨纶（7.69%）、氟化工（7.55%）、涤纶（5.21%）、其他化学原料 （4.80%）、纯碱（4.56%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： R134a报盘调涨。据隆众资讯，近期，R134华东及华南主流大厂均明盘调涨至60000元/吨（含税出 厂），较上期主流明盘报盘调涨区间5000-6000元/吨。R134a在2025年生产配额和内用配额分别增量0.6 万吨和0.3万吨，配额调整后生产配额和内用配额分别为21.4万吨和8.3万吨，反映出企业对该产品下游 市场，如汽车空调、数据中心液冷的判断预期偏强，正在进行内部资源再配置。 投资建议 当前时点建议关注如下主线：1、制冷剂板块。随着三年基数期结束，三代制冷剂行业供需格局将迎来 再平衡，价格中枢有望持续上行，建议关注金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、永和股份。2、化纤板 块。建议关注华峰化学、新凤鸣、泰和新材。3、建议关注万华化学、华鲁 ...

本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整 体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百 分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9 位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅 为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 2025年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃 化工、COC聚合物、MDI等行业: （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材料或在局部面临颠覆性冲击，低耗 能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗口。对于传统化工企业而言，未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本， 优秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来降低能耗成本，亦或新增产能转 移至 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The 2026 allocation plan for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) has been released, indicating a continued reduction in production and usage quotas for HCFCs and HFCs [10][11] - The total production quota for HCFCs in 2026 is set at 151,416 tons, with a usage quota of 79,724 tons, reflecting a significant reduction compared to previous years [2][12] - The room air conditioning sector will see a 70% reduction in usage quotas, while the commercial refrigeration sector will have a 67.5% reduction, consistent with 2025 [2][11] - The new quota scheme is expected to maintain a tight balance in the industry, with a projected increase in demand for R32 to compensate for reductions in R22 [21][22] Summary by Sections HCFCs Production and Usage Quotas - The production quota for HCFCs in 2026 is 151,416 tons, with a usage quota also at 79,724 tons, representing a reduction of 71.5% and 76.1% from baseline values respectively [11][12] - Specific reductions include HCFC-22 with a production quota of 146,068 tons, down by 3,000 tons from 2025 [12] HFCs Allocation and Adjustments - The allocation plan includes an increase of 3,000 tons for HFC-245fa and 50 tons for HFC-41 based on the demand for alternatives to HCFCs [3][15] - The maximum adjustment for any HFC's annual quota is capped at 30% of the allocated amount [15][16] Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The report indicates that the market for three generations of refrigerants remains tight, with companies likely to balance their adjustments across different refrigerant types rather than focusing on a single type [21][22] - Price increases for refrigerants have been significant, with R32 rising by 262% from early 2024 to current prices [22]

Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - In the first three quarters, 540 listed chemical companies in the basic chemical sector achieved total operating revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%; net profit reached 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69%, indicating continuous improvement in overall performance and solid steps towards high-quality development [1] Group 2: Subsector Performance - The potassium fertilizer market has seen strong performance, with four potassium fertilizer companies achieving total operating revenue of 20.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.62%; net profit reached 9.445 billion yuan, up 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry benefited from a sustained high demand, with five refrigerant companies reporting total operating revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.51%; net profit reached 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry showed broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 pesticide companies achieving total operating revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%; net profit reached 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 3: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, supply-demand mismatches remain a major challenge for high-quality development. The carbon black industry is experiencing price declines and high costs, leading to losses for most companies [4] - The tire industry faced a decline in net profit, with six tire companies reporting total operating revenue of 31.605 billion yuan, down 3.75%; net profit fell to 0.01 billion yuan, down 559% [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with nine companies reporting total operating revenue of 45.504 billion yuan, down 11.97%; net profit decreased to 2.515 billion yuan, down 45.67% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to continue to diverge, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers. The price of mainstream refrigerant R32 is projected to reach 60,200 yuan per ton in Q4, an increase of 18.97% from Q3 [5] - The potassium fertilizer market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, with high prices likely to persist [5] - Conversely, the titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer industries may face challenges, with predictions of oversupply in the nitrogen fertilizer market by 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The basic chemical sector's performance has shown continuous improvement, with 540 listed companies achieving a total revenue of 23,132.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.69%, and a net profit of 1,196.75 billion yuan, up 8.69% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer sectors have experienced significant profit growth due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with potassium fertilizer companies reporting a revenue increase of 60.62% and a net profit increase of 57.60% [2] - The refrigerant industry has maintained a strong performance, with five companies achieving a revenue of 51.88 billion yuan, up 19.51%, and a net profit of 7.446 billion yuan, up 138.04% [2] - The pesticide industry has shown broad revenue growth and significant profit improvement, with 42 companies reporting a revenue of 164.51 billion yuan, up 6.56%, and a net profit of 7.334 billion yuan, up 111.66% [3] Group 2: Challenges and Supply-Demand Imbalance - Despite some sectors performing well, the industry faces challenges due to supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the carbon black and tire sectors, where companies have reported significant losses [4] - The tire industry has seen a revenue increase of 10.03% but a net profit decline of 18.17%, indicating a disparity in profitability among companies [4] - The titanium dioxide sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with revenues down 11.97% and net profits down 45.67% for nine companies [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future performance in the basic chemical sector is expected to remain differentiated, with positive prospects for refrigerants and potassium fertilizers, while challenges are anticipated for titanium dioxide and nitrogen fertilizer sectors [5] - The refrigerant market is projected to see price increases, with the main product R32 reaching a long-term contract price of 60,200 yuan per ton, an 18.97% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces oversupply issues, with production capacity expected to exceed demand by 2025, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [5]

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, characterized by limited supply and strong demand driven by the air conditioning and automotive markets [2][4][10] - The price of fluorite powder, a key raw material for refrigerants, has recently seen a decline due to ample supply and high downstream inventory, but is expected to rise again towards the end of the year due to production halts in northern regions and year-end stocking demands [1][2] Key Points Supply Dynamics - Fluorite supply is constrained by low extraction ratios and stringent policies, leading to a tight supply situation in the medium to long term, with prices expected to remain at a high level [1][2] - The Chinese government is gradually reducing production quotas for second-generation and third-generation hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), with a 7.43% reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas for 2025 [1][4] Demand Drivers - The demand for refrigerants is rigid, primarily driven by the air conditioning and automotive sectors, with policies such as trade-in programs and tax exemptions for vehicle purchases continuing into 2025 [1][2][3] - Despite potential marginal decreases in stimulus effects in 2026, the overall demand for refrigerants is expected to increase due to technological upgrades and the rising share of new energy vehicles [2][8] Market Trends - The third-generation refrigerant market is characterized by high concentration, with large companies possessing significant pricing power, allowing them to adapt flexibly to market changes [1][4] - The price of R22, a second-generation refrigerant, has significantly declined due to its dual use as a raw material, which is not subject to quota restrictions, leading to increased production capacity for R22 [1][5][7] Future Outlook - The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with product prices and margins remaining at high levels [4][10] - The long-term outlook for the refrigerant industry remains optimistic, supported by the rigid demand from maintenance needs and the gradual market share increase of new-generation products [6][10] Investment Recommendations - The fluorochemical and refrigerant sectors are recommended for continued attention due to their strong resource attributes, high production concentration, and annual quota reductions [2][9] - Companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within the refrigerant industry [2][9]