第三季度净利预增超4倍 根据业绩预告，永和股份预计2025年前三季度实现归母净利润为4.56亿元到4.76亿元，同比增长 211.59%到225.25%。其中，预计2025年第三季度实现归母净利润为1.85亿元到2.05亿元，同比增长 447.64%到506.85%，环比增长6.34%到17.83%。 对于业绩增长，永和股份表示，本期业绩预增的主要原因是制冷剂行业高景气度延续。一方面，第二代 氟制冷剂（HCFCs）生产配额持续缩减，第三代氟制冷剂（HFCs）继续实行生产配额管理，行业供给 端约束强化，推动供需结构进一步优化。另一方面，下游空调、冷链等领域需求稳步增长，共同支撑产 品价格持续上行，毛利率稳步提升。 除此之外，永和股份表示，业绩增长还与产品结构优化与产业链协同有关。据了解，永和股份通过优化 邵武永和等生产基地的产线运行效率，提升HFP、FEP、PTFE、PFA等产品的优等品率与产销规模，推 动邵武永和从"产能建设"向"效益释放"阶段转型，邵武永和自2024年第四季度起实现持续盈利。同时， 依托从萤石上游资源到含氟精细化学品终端产品的全产业链布局，公司紧紧把握市场机遇，推动运营效 率持续提升。 长江 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high demand, leading to significant growth in the company's performance. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97-2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136%-155% [1][2]. - The supply of refrigerants is tightening due to the reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024. This, combined with strong downstream demand, is expected to sustain the industry's upward trend [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the average price of fluorochemical raw materials is expected to be 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10% year-on-year, with sales volume of 188,000 tons, up 12% year-on-year. The average price of refrigerants is projected at 39,372 yuan/ton, up 62% year-on-year, with sales volume of 155,000 tons, down 4% year-on-year [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.191 billion yuan (up 11%), 5.141 billion yuan (up 10%), and 6.286 billion yuan (up 8%) respectively, translating to EPS of 1.55 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.33 yuan [4][5]. Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the production and use quotas for ozone-depleting substances and HFCs for 2025, indicating a reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas by 32,800 tons and third-generation refrigerant quotas exceeding expectations. This orderly reduction in supply, coupled with policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, is expected to support steady growth in demand [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 28.197 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.26%. The net profit margin is expected to be 14.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.62% [5][12].