Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) is experiencing significant growth in its performance, with a projected net profit increase of 211.59% to 225.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the high demand in the refrigerant industry [1][2] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 4.56 billion to 4.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter alone projected to yield a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 447.64% to 506.85% [2][3] - In Q4 2024, Yonghe's revenue was 12.27 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 384.97% increase [3] Industry Dynamics - The growth is attributed to the sustained high demand in the refrigerant industry, with production quotas for second-generation hydrofluorocarbons (HCFCs) being reduced and third-generation hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) continuing to face quota management, leading to an optimized supply-demand structure [2][4] - The company has secured a total HFCs product quota of 58,200 tons, positioning it among the top in the industry to benefit from supply-side reforms [4][5] Product and Operational Efficiency - Yonghe has optimized its production lines, enhancing the quality and scale of products such as HFP, FEP, PTFE, and PFA, transitioning from capacity construction to efficiency release [2][4] - The fluorocarbon chemical business, which is the company's primary revenue driver, achieved 13.1 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 53.58% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase to 32.43% [4][5] Cash Flow and Profitability - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2025 reached 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.39%, indicating improved financial health [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high demand, leading to significant growth in the company's performance. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97-2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136%-155% [1][2]. - The supply of refrigerants is tightening due to the reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024. This, combined with strong downstream demand, is expected to sustain the industry's upward trend [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the average price of fluorochemical raw materials is expected to be 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10% year-on-year, with sales volume of 188,000 tons, up 12% year-on-year. The average price of refrigerants is projected at 39,372 yuan/ton, up 62% year-on-year, with sales volume of 155,000 tons, down 4% year-on-year [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.191 billion yuan (up 11%), 5.141 billion yuan (up 10%), and 6.286 billion yuan (up 8%) respectively, translating to EPS of 1.55 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.33 yuan [4][5]. Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the production and use quotas for ozone-depleting substances and HFCs for 2025, indicating a reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas by 32,800 tons and third-generation refrigerant quotas exceeding expectations. This orderly reduction in supply, coupled with policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, is expected to support steady growth in demand [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 28.197 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.26%. The net profit margin is expected to be 14.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.62% [5][12].