制冷剂含氟聚合物近况更新 20260121 摘要 R32 价格年初异常波动，从 2024 年不足 2 万元涨至约 6 万元，涨幅显 著，主要受下游空调需求增长驱动，尤其是在以旧换新政策和家电企业 排产计划增加的背景下，预计未来价格仍有上涨空间。 高级制冷剂如 R125、R404、R507 等自 2023 年配额政策执行以来价 格上涨，但受光伏行业需求回调影响有所回落。企业通过削减配额主动 提价，叠加海外市场需求增加，推动小品种制冷剂价格上涨，预计旺季 需求带动下仍有涨价空间。 国内 32 空调与 410A 空调生产比例已达 8:2，导致 410A 产业链需求缩 减，售价逐渐低于 32。美国和欧洲法规对高级导流 P 产品的约束和淘汰 加速了这一转变。 134A 库存处于历史低位，中化与车企签订长期订单价格已超 6.2 万元/ 吨，散水市场价格也在上涨，预计年底可能达到 7 万元/吨甚至更高，主 要受益于售后市场需求。 125 制冷剂市场前景乐观，企业主动削减配额并成功提价至 5.1 万元/吨， 预计未来价格可能追赶 32 制冷剂水平，达到 6 万元/吨，无需过多担忧 内贸转向的影响。 Q&A 2026 年制冷剂 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with projections indicating a growth of 110.87% to 150.66% year-on-year, driven by a high demand in the refrigerant industry and the company's operational efficiencies [1][3]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be between 530 million to 630 million yuan, an increase of 279 million to 379 million yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.786 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.04%, and a net profit of 469 million yuan, which is a 220.39% increase [2][3]. - The total assets of Yonghe Co., Ltd. reached 7.904 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.48%, marking a five-year low [1][6]. Industry Position and Product Offering - Yonghe Co., Ltd. operates in the fluorochemical sector, with a comprehensive product chain that includes fluorite resources, hydrofluoric acid, fluorocarbon chemicals, and fluorine-containing polymers [2]. - The company has established a global sales network covering over 100 countries and regions, supported by its brands "Ice Dragon" and "Fluorlon" [2]. Operational Efficiency and Competitive Advantage - The company benefits from a complete industrial chain that enhances production organization and resource allocation, leading to improved profitability [4]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of 190,000 tons for fluorocarbon chemicals and 82,800 tons for fluorine-containing polymer materials, with significant market positions in key products [5][6]. Research and Development - The company emphasizes a strategy of independent research and development, with a focus on high-end and green fluorochemical demands, resulting in 78 valid patents as of mid-2025 [7]. - R&D expenditures have consistently increased, with amounts of 52.11 million yuan, 90.23 million yuan, 104 million yuan, and 81.6 million yuan from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a commitment to innovation [7].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between 530 million to 630 million yuan, representing an increase of 278.66 million to 378.66 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a year-on-year growth of 110.87% to 150.66% [2][4] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 to be between 524 million to 624 million yuan, which is an increase of 278.19 million to 378.19 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 113.17% to 153.86% [2][4] Group 2 - The performance forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [3] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was 251.34 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 245.81 million yuan [6] Group 3 - The main reasons for the profit increase include the sustained high prosperity of the refrigerant industry, with price increases driving profit growth. The supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain favorable, with a continued reduction in production quotas for second-generation and third-generation refrigerants [8] - The company benefits from a complete industrial chain layout, which enhances operational efficiency and cost control, while its technological advantages in fluorinated polymer materials continue to translate into competitive products, improving market competitiveness and profitability [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][32][29] Core Views - The third-generation refrigerant market is experiencing a prolonged boom cycle, with prices increasing steadily each quarter. The company has a leading position in production quotas, benefiting from the industry's upward trend [1][20][29] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.22%, driven primarily by strong performance in the refrigerant business [1][9][10] - The company is expanding its liquid cooling business in response to growing demand from data centers, positioning itself for future growth in this area [4][28][29] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, and a net profit of 3.248 billion yuan, up 160.2% year-on-year. The gross margin reached 28.9%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points [1][9][10] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 7.062 billion yuan, a 21.2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 1.197 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 186.55% [1][9][10] Refrigerant Business - The company sold 230,600 tons of refrigerants in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, but the average selling price increased to 40,554 yuan per ton, up 58.1% year-on-year [10][21] - The pricing of refrigerants is increasingly decoupled from traditional cyclical pricing, indicating a long-term upward trend in prices [20][21] Non-Refrigerant Business - The non-refrigerant business is facing intense competition, with a slight decrease in the average price of fluoropolymers. Sales of fluoropolymers reached 36,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [3][25] - The market for fluoropolymers is transitioning from general-purpose to specialized and high-end products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [25][27] Liquid Cooling Business - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is rapidly increasing due to advancements in AI technology and the limitations of traditional cooling methods. The company has initiated projects to produce fluorinated liquids for cooling applications [4][28][29] - A strategic partnership has been established to develop the largest immersion liquid cooling intelligent computing center in China, further enhancing growth prospects in this sector [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (SH605020) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 211.59% to 225.25% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 456 million to 476 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 310 million to 330 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - For Q3 2025, the expected net profit is between 185 million to 205 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 447.64% to 506.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.34% to 17.83% [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be between 442 million to 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 212.93% to 227.10% [2] - The Q3 2025 net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be between 174 million to 194 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 396.82% to 453.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.71% to 13.40% [2] Industry Context - The performance increase is attributed to the sustained high demand in the refrigerant industry, driven by supply-side quota policies and steady growth in downstream demand [3] - The reduction in production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of quota management for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) have optimized the supply-demand structure [3] - The steady growth in demand from sectors such as air conditioning and cold chain logistics supports rising product prices and improved profit margins [3] Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized production efficiency at its Shaowu Yonghe base, enhancing the quality and sales scale of products like HFP, FEP, PTFE, and PFA [3] - The transition from "capacity construction" to "efficiency release" is expected to lead to continuous profitability starting from Q4 2024 [3] - The company aims to broaden its profit margins and improve operational efficiency through lean management, market share expansion, and cost control [3] Company Background - Yonghe Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of fluorochemical products, with a comprehensive industrial chain covering fluorite resources, hydrofluoric acid, fluorocarbon chemicals, and fluorinated polymers [7] - The company reported a revenue of 2.445 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.39% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 271 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 140.82% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) is experiencing significant growth in its performance, with a projected net profit increase of 211.59% to 225.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the high demand in the refrigerant industry [1][2] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 4.56 billion to 4.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter alone projected to yield a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 447.64% to 506.85% [2][3] - In Q4 2024, Yonghe's revenue was 12.27 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 384.97% increase [3] Industry Dynamics - The growth is attributed to the sustained high demand in the refrigerant industry, with production quotas for second-generation hydrofluorocarbons (HCFCs) being reduced and third-generation hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) continuing to face quota management, leading to an optimized supply-demand structure [2][4] - The company has secured a total HFCs product quota of 58,200 tons, positioning it among the top in the industry to benefit from supply-side reforms [4][5] Product and Operational Efficiency - Yonghe has optimized its production lines, enhancing the quality and scale of products such as HFP, FEP, PTFE, and PFA, transitioning from capacity construction to efficiency release [2][4] - The fluorocarbon chemical business, which is the company's primary revenue driver, achieved 13.1 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for 53.58% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase to 32.43% [4][5] Cash Flow and Profitability - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2025 reached 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.39%, indicating improved financial health [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the sustained high demand in the refrigerant industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of between 456 million to 476 million CNY for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 211.59% to 225.25% [1]. - For the third quarter alone, Yonghe expects a net profit of 185 million to 205 million CNY, indicating a year-on-year increase of 447.64% to 506.85% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.34% to 17.83% [3]. Industry Context - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high demand due to supply-side quota policies and steady growth in downstream demand, particularly in air conditioning and cold chain sectors [6][8]. - The transition from second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) to third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) is ongoing, with production quotas tightening, which enhances the supply-demand structure [6][8]. Operational Strategy - Yonghe Co., Ltd. is optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency across its production bases, which is expected to lead to sustained profitability starting from Q4 2024 [6]. - The company is leveraging its complete industrial chain from fluorite mining to fine chemical products to capture market opportunities and improve profitability through lean management and market expansion [6][8]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the refrigerant market remains optimistic, with expectations of continued demand growth driven by consumer upgrades and technological innovations [11]. - The domestic refrigerant market is primarily driven by air conditioning (62.18%), refrigerators (4.78%), and automotive applications (9.87%) [8].

Core Viewpoint - Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 456 million to 476 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 211.59% to 225.25% due to the sustained high prosperity of the refrigerant industry [1] Industry Summary - The refrigerant industry continues to maintain a high prosperity level, benefiting from supply-side quota policies and steady growth in downstream demand. The production quotas for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants (HCFCs) are continuously reduced, and third-generation fluorinated refrigerants (HFCs) are still subject to production quota management, which strengthens supply-side constraints and optimizes the supply-demand structure [1][1] - Steady growth in demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and cold chain supports continuous price increases and steady improvement in gross margins [1] Company Summary - The company is optimizing production line efficiency at its Shaowu Yonghe production base, enhancing the yield and sales scale of products such as HFP, FEP, PTFE, and PFA, transitioning from "capacity construction" to "efficiency release" [1] - From the fourth quarter of 2024, Shaowu Yonghe is expected to achieve sustained profitability [1] - The company leverages its full industry chain layout from upstream fluorite resources to downstream fluorinated fine chemicals, seizing market opportunities through lean internal management, expanding market share, and strengthening cost control to further widen profit margins and enhance operational efficiency [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [7][11]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with expectations for air conditioning production to rise in August due to high summer temperatures [5][7]. - The supply-demand dynamics for refrigerants are tightening, particularly for R22 and R32, driven by government subsidy policies and increasing demand in emerging markets [7][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance in July - As of July 30, the fluorochemical index was at 1471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points [2][18]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Price Trends - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R134a expected to average 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton from August to October 2025 [3][25][26]. 2.2 Export Data - From January to June 2025, R32 exports increased by 14% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [34]. The export price for R32 was 44,449 yuan per ton as of June 2025 [4][34]. 2.3 Production and Operating Rates - Domestic air conditioning production in August 2025 was 6.735 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year, while export production was 4.708 million units, down 14.7% year-on-year [6][70]. 3. Compliance with the Montreal Protocol - The report outlines China's commitment to reducing HCFCs and HFCs in line with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions planned for 2025 and 2030 [60][61]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - The air conditioning sector has seen strong production growth in the first half of 2025, with cumulative exports reaching 41.08 million units, a 6.9% increase year-on-year [5][70]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted, with profit growth expected due to favorable market conditions [11][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [7][11]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a price increase in mainstream refrigerants, with expectations for air conditioning production to rise in August due to high summer temperatures [2][5]. - The report highlights a significant demand for refrigerants driven by national subsidy policies and growth in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [7][60]. - The supply constraints from regulatory policies are expected to maintain a favorable pricing environment for refrigerants like R22 and R32, with long-term price increases anticipated [7][60]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance in July - As of July 30, the fluorochemical index stood at 1471.59 points, up 6.29% from the end of June, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 1.76 percentage points [18][20]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Price Trends - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant increases in March, while R22 prices remained stable in the summer months [24][25]. - Future price forecasts for R32 are projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton for August to October, respectively [25][26]. 2.2 Export Data - From January to June 2025, R32 exports increased by 14%, while R22 exports decreased by 34% [34]. - The average export price for R32 was 44,449 yuan per ton as of June 2025 [34]. 2.3 Production and Operating Rates - Domestic air conditioning production in August 2025 is projected at 6.735 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [6]. 3. Compliance with the Montreal Protocol - The report discusses China's commitment to reducing HCFCs and HFCs, with significant reductions planned for 2025 and 2030 [60][61]. 4. Air Conditioning Production and Export Data - The report notes a strong performance in air conditioning production in the first half of 2025, with a total of 41.08 million units exported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][6]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted, with profit growth expected due to favorable market conditions [11][10].