[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 有机硅行业至高减产 30%，XRG 收购科思创交易获德国批准 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-11-26 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2/24 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 11/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.印度对华 BIS 认证撤销，有机硅 DMC 价格涨幅居前 20251114 2.天然气制绿氨首获 ISCC PLUS 认证，三季 度轮胎盈利普遍回暖 20251107 3.510 亿元央企新兴产业发展基金启航，六 氟磷酸锂价格涨势不止 20251031 4.2026 年化肥、原油进口配额总量公布，地 缘催化油价震荡走强 20251024 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 科技周期再平衡，反内卷下化工机会凸显 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 | 韦冀星（分析师） | 金益腾（分析师） | 简宇涵（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | weijixing@kysec.cn | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | jianyuhan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524030002 | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525050005 | 策略：双轮驱动下，科技与周期再平衡 从 10 月最后一周开始，我们观点发生变化：双轮驱动下，科技与周期再平衡， 反内卷下周期机会凸显。三个原因：①从三季报表现来看，科技与周期在 Q3 实 现同步发力——两翼齐飞；②高贝塔行情下，科技今年以来已经累计较多涨幅； ③机构仓位于科技上较为集中，上行较快。我们认为，再平衡阶段或将持续 1-2 个月，但展望 2026 年，风格会相对更加均衡：其中，科技依然具备中长期占优 的条件、顺周期的主要机会在 PPI、红利风格在 2026 年会优于 2025 年。 A 股继续下行的产能周期当中，反内卷下化工机会 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced significant volatility on November 20, with the chemical ETF (516020) initially rising by 1.83% before closing down 1.34%, resulting in a daily fluctuation of over 3% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including fluorine chemicals, civil explosives, and lithium batteries, saw notable declines, with companies like Duofluoride and Guangdong Hongda hitting the daily limit down, and others like Xinjubang and Hangyang falling over 6% [1] - The chemical sector has garnered attention recently, particularly in the phosphorus chemical industry, with expectations of increased demand for energy storage leading to a potential rise in phosphorus ore demand by 440 million tons by 2025, representing over 4% of current total production [2][3] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry reported revenue of 1.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with net profits rising by 7.5% to 114 billion yuan, and a net profit margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 7.0% [3] - The basic chemical sector has seen significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 25.87 billion yuan on a single day, ranking third among 30 major sectors, and a total net inflow of 2.017 trillion yuan over the past 60 days, placing it second [4] - Future prospects for the chemical industry appear positive, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics and potential valuation increases, suggesting a dual uplift in performance and valuation for the sector [5]

行业 2026 年度投资策略："反内卷"为盾，需求为矛， 化工有望迎来新一轮景气周期 20251119 摘要 化工行业目前处于周期底部已超过一年，龙头企业业绩和价格价差均表 明景气度低迷，资本开支和固定资产投资增速大幅放缓，传统化工产品 产能投放减少。 反内卷的必要性在于中国制造业集中度高，地产需求短期难以恢复，且 抢占国际市场份额的边际效应减弱。若不反内卷，将导致国企长期亏损， 拖累地方政府和银行系统。 当前 60 美元左右的油价对化工行业影响中性，煤炭价格也处于历史中 位数水平，对成本端的影响已不再是主要矛盾。关注油价上涨至 90 美 元可能带来的成本支撑和库存收入增加。 化工行业市场周期由供需共同决定，供给侧改革能触发拐点，需求决定 周期高度。未来几年，中国制造业 ROE、毛利率和净利润等指标预计将 迎来历史性拐点。 7 月份以来，中央财经委员会明确提出要深入反映内卷问题，标志着化 工板块的重要拐点。此后，化工 ETF 涨幅已达 40%-50%，《十五规 划》也明确将综合整治内卷式竞争写入规划。 Q&A 2026 年化工行业的年度投资策略是什么？ 2026 年化工行业的年度投资策略主要围绕反内卷这一核心 ...

开源证券近日发布基础化工行业投资策略：据Wind数据，截至2025年H1，基础化工板块上市公司在建 工程共计3,504亿元，同比下降10%；2025年1-8月，化学原料及化学制品制造业、化学纤维的固定资产 投资完成额累计同比分别-5.2%、+9.3%，较2021-2022年明显下行。 "反内卷"为盾，需求为矛，化工有望迎来新一轮景气周期 化工资本开支接近尾声，供需格局修复，"反内卷"推动下修复进度或加快 化工中部分行业已逐步落实"反内卷"措施，有望给其他子行业提供可借鉴的"反内卷"发展思路。我们认 为在"反内卷"浪潮席卷而来的当下，新一轮供给侧改革呼之欲出，化工行业供需格局有望进一步优化， 其中化工行业龙头企业有望凭借更加规范的管理体系、更好的能耗控制水平获得更多市场份额，这是化 工行业整体的重大拐点。建议关注以下方向：①建议首先增配产品丰富、体量大的龙头公司：石化（恒 力石化、万华化学）、煤化工（华鲁恒升、鲁西化工）、其他白马（新和成、龙佰集团、赛轮轮胎);② 优先关注在反内卷走在前列且周期拐点率先到来的子行业（涨价）：涤纶长丝+PTA（新凤鸣、桐昆股 份、三房巷）、氨纶（华峰化学、新乡化纤）、制冷剂（巨化 ...

天风证券（601162）发布研报称，化工行业2025年前三季度营收及净利润同比增长，2025年第三季度营 收同比增长，利润率水平环比小幅提升，25Q3在建工程同比增速降幅环比进一步扩大，固定资产规模 同比增加。投资建议：周期相对底部或已至，关注供需边际变化行业。 (1)需求稳定，全球供给主导：三氯蔗糖、农药、MDI、氨基酸。(2)内需驱动，对冲关税冲击：制冷 剂、化肥(磷肥)、钾肥、复合肥、民爆、染料。(3)关注产能先投放，有望优先恢复的子行业：有机硅、 氨纶。 天风证券主要观点如下： 2025年前三季度营收及净利润同比增长 2025年前三季度，基础化工行业上市公司(根据申万2021一级分类基础化工行业以及轮胎行业(长江分类) 上市公司合计446家)共实现营业收入1.71万亿元，同比增长2.8%，实现营业利润1424亿元，同比增长 6.9%，实现归属上市公司股东的净利润1140亿元，同比增长7.5%。行业整体综合毛利率为13.0%，同比 持平;期间费用率为9.6%，同比-0.1pcts。行业整体净利润率为7.0%，同比提升0.3pcts。 2025年第三季度基础化工行业全体上市公司共实现营业收入5823亿元， ...

11月18日，巨化股份盘中下跌2.05%，截至14:29，报34.48元/股，成交6.09亿元，换手率0.64%，总市值 930.87亿元。 分红方面，巨化股份A股上市后累计派现59.73亿元。近三年，累计派现16.47亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出7350.00万元，特大单买入4913.19万元，占比8.07%，卖出8531.40万 元，占比14.02%；大单买入1.47亿元，占比24.20%，卖出1.85亿元，占比30.33%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，巨化股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股6450.90万股，相比上期减少2041.15万股。兴全合润混合A（163406）位居第三大流通股 东，持股4872.24万股，相比上期减少175.15万股。兴全合宜混合A（163417）位居第四大流通股东，持 股2522.52万股，相比上期增加27.31万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通股东，持股 2311.19万股，相比上期减少105.44万股。鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A（014942）位居第八大 流通股东，持股2026.70 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently in a phase of profit recovery after a decline from the peak in 2021, similar to the cycle observed from 2012 to 2015 [1][3] - Raw material prices are stable, with gross margins and price spreads at historical lows, but the pressure from oversupply is easing, and demand from mid and downstream sectors is steadily growing [1][3] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to expand rapidly from 2022 to 2024, but a significant decline is anticipated in 2025, indicating a peak in capacity growth [1][3] Market Dynamics - The refrigerant market is entering a long-term upward cycle starting from the end of 2023, with prices for major varieties expected to continue rising, such as the price of 2,332 reaching 63,000 yuan, three times higher than the same period last year [1][5] - Major refrigerant companies have reported significant profit increases, with Yonghe's profit growth reaching 450% in the first three quarters [1][5] - The refrigerant quota policy is expected to remain stable, transitioning from annual to quarterly pricing, which will facilitate more frequent performance realization [1][5] Cooling Liquid Market - The cooling liquid market is categorized into three types: water-based, oil-based, and fluorinated liquids, with fluorinated liquids showing promising applications in immersion cooling [1][6] - Companies like Juhua and Yonghe have already established a good layout in fluorinated liquids, positioning them for better growth as demand for liquid cooling increases [1][6] Price Trends and Expectations - Refrigerant prices are likely to see a slight increase starting in November due to year-end rigid demand and the exhaustion of annual quotas [1][7] - The natural gas market is under pressure due to the predicted La Niña phenomenon and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a projected increase in consumption as winter approaches [2][8] Investment Opportunities - The chemical industry is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 2.2, indicating potential for upward movement [3][9] - Investment opportunities are identified in the refrigerant, natural gas, and phosphate industry chains, particularly influenced by the demand for electric vehicle batteries [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to mutual attacks on energy facilities, causing disruptions in Russian oil exports and supporting oil prices. Recent data shows WTI crude futures prices increased by 0.17% and Brent crude futures by 0.85% during the week of November 7-14, 2025 [6]. - The geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over Russian oil export disruptions, particularly with the New Novorossiysk port's daily export capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels, which accounts for 2% of global supply [6]. - OPEC's latest report indicates a decrease in oil production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, with a daily output of 43.02 million barrels in October, down by 73,000 barrels from the previous month. However, due to unexpected increases in U.S. oil production, the global market has shifted from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, indicating a structural oversupply [6]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil surplus could reach a record level of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, posing significant downward pressure on medium to long-term oil prices [6]. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with the IMF noting a decline in GDP growth expectations for the fourth quarter below the previously predicted 1.9% [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices and exports, with significant military actions affecting energy infrastructure [6][7]. - Current oil market dynamics show a transition from a supply shortage to a surplus, influenced by OPEC production adjustments and U.S. output increases [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The market for popular fluorinated refrigerants, such as R32 and R134a, continues to thrive, with prices stabilizing at high levels due to supply constraints and strong demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in air conditioning production rates towards the end of the year, with expected increases in production of 4.2%, 8.6%, and 34.5% for the months of October to December 2025 [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, fluorochemicals, and semiconductor materials. It emphasizes the resilience of major oil companies in the face of price volatility and recommends monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC for their strong earnings potential [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it advises attention to leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - For semiconductor materials, the report notes a positive trend in inventory reduction and a gradual recovery in end-market fundamentals, recommending companies involved in domestic substitution and growth [7].