Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity in treatment between India and China regarding oil imports from Russia, highlighting India's significant increase in Russian oil imports and the implications of U.S. sanctions on both countries [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Import Data - India imported an average of 90,000 barrels of Russian oil per day in 2021, which surged to 2.1 million barrels per day by August 2024, accounting for 35% of its total oil imports [1]. - China imported 108 million tons of Russian oil from January to July this year, averaging about 2.1 million barrels per day, with approximately 72% of this oil being refined and re-exported [1]. - The European Union, despite sanctions rhetoric, imported 15 billion cubic meters of Russian liquefied natural gas in the first half of the year, equivalent to 400,000 barrels of oil per day [1]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Global Oil Prices - Rubio indicated that additional sanctions on China could lead to a spike in global oil prices by $8 to $10 per barrel, with Goldman Sachs estimating a potential reduction of 1.2 million barrels per day in refined oil supply if Western countries block Chinese refineries [3]. - The political risk premium for Brent crude oil prices has increased to $7.2 per barrel for Q4, reflecting market concerns over sanctions and counter-sanctions [11]. Group 3: India's Position and Response - India is viewed as a "soft target" for sanctions due to its relatively small trade surplus with the U.S. and the political leverage of the Indian-American voter base [7]. - In response to potential U.S. tariffs, India is considering retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products worth approximately $1.4 billion, has approved special rupee accounts for Russian oil trade, and has seen a significant increase in order cancellations on platforms like Amazon [9]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future U.S.-India relations regarding oil imports are outlined: a softening of U.S. stance due to upcoming elections, India pushing for self-reliance in manufacturing, or a multilateral compromise during the G20 summit [12].