Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector in A-shares is experiencing significant growth, with the brokerage index rising over 25% since April 8, and many brokerages reporting substantial increases in net profit for the first half of the year, driven by a recovering capital market and favorable policies [1][2][3][8]. Performance Summary - At least 28 listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with most reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%, and some large brokerages, such as Shenwan Hongyuan and Guotai Junan, expecting over 100% growth [2][5][6]. - The overall increase in brokerage performance is attributed to the active trading environment in the capital market, which has significantly boosted self-operated investment income and brokerage fee income [8][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - **Fundamental Support**: The active trading environment is expected to continue benefiting brokerage performance, with most brokerages forecasting net profit growth of over 50% for the second half of the year [3][13]. - **Capital Support**: The allocation of equity funds to non-bank financials has increased slightly, indicating potential for further investment in brokerages [14]. - **Policy Support**: Recent policy changes encourage brokerages to focus on improving return on equity (ROE), which may enhance their performance [15]. - **Valuation Levels**: Most brokerages have a price-to-book ratio just above 1, with only about 10 listed brokerages exceeding a ratio of 2, suggesting room for valuation growth [16]. Dividend Yield and Valuation - Several brokerages offer dividend yields above 2%, which is higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds, making them attractive for income-focused investors [1][16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector in A-shares is experiencing a significant rally, with the brokerage index rising over 25% since the low on April 8, and is expected to benefit from both fundamental and capital market support, with some brokerages offering dividend yields above 2% [1][11]. Performance Forecast - At least 28 listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with most reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%, and some large brokerages, such as Shenwan Hongyuan and Guotai Junan, expecting over 100% growth [2][5]. - Specific forecasts include Guotai Junan projecting a net profit of 15.28 billion to 15.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 205% to 218% [5][10]. Market Conditions - The surge in brokerage performance is attributed to the recovery of the capital market, with increased market activity leading to significant growth in proprietary trading and brokerage fee income [6][11]. - The stamp duty revenue for the first half of the year reached 195.3 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 54.1% to 78.5 billion yuan [7]. Support Factors - **Fundamental Support**: The active trading environment is expected to continue benefiting brokerages, with most forecasting continued growth in the second half of the year [11]. - **Capital Support**: The allocation of equity funds to non-bank financials has increased slightly, but remains low compared to the overall market [12]. - **Policy Support**: Recent regulatory changes encourage brokerages to focus on improving return on equity (ROE), enhancing their performance metrics [13]. - **Valuation**: Most brokerages have a price-to-book ratio just above 1, with only about 10 having a ratio exceeding 2, indicating potential for further appreciation [14]. Summary of Performance Increases - A detailed table of expected net profit increases for various brokerages shows significant growth, with some firms like Huaxi Securities projecting a staggering increase of over 1000% [8][9].