Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened positively in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.46%, the ChiNext Index increasing by over 2%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index gaining over 1% [1] Market Performance - The leading Securities ETF (560090) experienced a volatile trading day, closing down by 0.91%, despite attracting over 34 million yuan in net inflows on the previous trading day, totaling over 190 million yuan in net inflows over the last 10 days [1][3] - Most constituent stocks of the Securities ETF saw declines, with notable increases in China International Capital Corporation (CICC) by over 1%, while Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and Dongfang Securities fell by over 1% [3] Financial Performance of Securities Firms - The China Securities Association reported that the securities industry achieved significant growth in the first half of the year, with total operating revenue reaching 2510.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.47%, and net profit of 1122.80 billion yuan, up 40.37% [5] - Among 128 securities firms, 85% reported profits, with 30 firms achieving profitability and 12 firms, including Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng, seeing net profit growth exceeding 100% [5][6] Revenue Breakdown - The total revenue of 42 listed securities firms reached 2518.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.37%, while net profit totaled 1040.17 billion yuan, up 65.08% [6] - Revenue from various business segments included brokerage (634.54 billion yuan, +43.98%), investment banking (155.30 billion yuan, +18.11%), asset management (211.95 billion yuan, -3.02%), investment (1123.54 billion yuan, +53.05%), and net interest income (196.57 billion yuan, +30.66%) [7] Individual Firm Performance - Notable individual performances included: - CITIC Securities: Operating revenue of 330.39 billion yuan (+9.46%), net profit of 137.19 billion yuan (+29.80%) - Guotai Junan: Operating revenue of 238.72 billion yuan (+39.85%), net profit of 157.37 billion yuan (+213.74%) - Huatai Securities: Operating revenue of 162.19 billion yuan (-7.00%), net profit of 75.49 billion yuan (+42.16%) [8] Market Outlook - The securities industry is expected to benefit from high trading volumes, normalized equity financing, and a recovering capital market, leading to improved performance and valuation recovery [9] - The A-share securities sector has seen significant gains since June, driven by favorable policies and increased market activity, suggesting potential for further valuation uplift [9]

Core Viewpoint - The significant growth in the securities industry in the first half of the year is driven by three main factors: a strong rebound in proprietary trading, a surge in market trading activity, and the gradual release of policy dividends [1][5][9]. Group 1: Performance Growth - A total of 33 securities firms in the A-share market have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 32 firms expecting profit increases, and nearly 40% (12 firms) anticipating growth exceeding 100% [5][7]. - Jianghai Securities reported a net profit of 288 million yuan for the first half of the year, a substantial increase of 1189.53% compared to 22 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - Among the 30 firms with profit increases, 27 firms reported growth exceeding 50%, 12 firms reported growth exceeding 100%, and 3 firms (Jianghai Securities, Huaxi Securities, and Guolian Ming Sheng) reported growth exceeding 1000% [8]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The three driving factors for the significant performance growth in the securities industry are: 1. A strong rebound in proprietary trading, with a notable increase in equity investment returns due to the recovery of the A-share market since the beginning of the year [9]. 2. A surge in trading activity, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan and margin financing balances rising to over 1.8 trillion yuan, boosting brokerage and credit business revenues [9]. 3. The gradual release of policy dividends, including the resumption of cross-border investment banking business and the expansion of the STAR Market, which has led to a recovery in investment banking revenues [9]. Group 3: Policy Impact - Since 2025, the securities industry has seen several significant policies aimed at promoting high-quality development, including guidelines for financial instrument valuation and management measures for financial institutions [12]. - The introduction of new regulations is expected to enhance the importance of insurance and bank wealth management products for securities firms, providing new revenue sources and opportunities for wealth management transformation [14][15]. - The policies are expected to create a dual effect of guidance and constraints, requiring firms to enhance specialized services while raising the bar for market entry [14]. Group 4: Market Performance - Despite the widespread positive performance forecasts in the securities industry, the market performance of securities stocks has been relatively subdued, with the securities index only rising by 0.75% as of July 17, compared to a 4.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [17]. - The historical role of securities firms as "bull market leaders" has diminished, with changes in their business models leading to a more stable but less elastic income structure [20].