智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报，根据中电联数据，单9月用电量同比增长4.5%，增速较8月的 5.0%下滑0.5个百分点。分部门看，9月二产用电需求持续修复至5.7%，三产用电需求增速依旧保持韧 性。推荐配置经营具备稳定性且估值重新具备安全边际的水电；兼具业绩弹性及低估值的H股龙头火 电；存在补贴发放预期改善且深度破净的H股绿电；受益数字化和新型电力系统日益融合的新场景及新 模式等，如虚拟电厂、微电网、综能服务、功率预测等。 中信证券主要观点如下： 二产用电持续回升，9月用电增长4.5%。 根据中电联数据(下同)，单9月用电量同比增长4.5%，增速较8月的5.0%下滑0.5个百分点。分部门看，9 月二产用电需求持续修复至5.7%，三产用电需求增速依旧保持韧性；9月气温环比下降明显，叠加去年 同期居民用电量基数较高导致居民单月用电同比增速转负；四大高耗能行业用电需求增速分化，其中黑 色金属行业用电需求同比高增、而非金属行业用电需求较为平淡。分区域看，9月高耗能地区用电增速 为5.8%，维持高位增长；受益出口的带动作用，沿海地区用电同比增速提升至7.2%。 1~9月国内累计新增风电/光伏分别为6,109/2 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **electric power industry**, specifically focusing on the **integration of renewable energy** into the market and its implications for power trading and forecasting services [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Renewable Energy Market Entry**: The entry of renewable energy into the power market is expected to be a significant change starting June 11, 2025, as mandated by the National Development and Reform Commission. This is viewed as a favorable time for market reform due to current supply conditions [2]. - **Investment Logic Shift**: With the entry of renewable energy, the pace of new installations is anticipated to slow down, shifting investment focus from new installations to the operation of existing capacity. Opportunities may arise in niche markets and barriers in power market operations [3]. - **Power Forecasting Importance**: The importance of power forecasting will transition from being policy-driven to value-driven, expanding the customer base to include various market participants. Higher forecasting accuracy is expected to enhance market share for leading suppliers [4]. - **Electricity Price Forecasting**: Electricity price forecasting will rely on supply-demand balance, with power forecasting services expanding from individual power plants to provincial levels, catering to a broader range of market participants [5]. - **Market Structure Changes**: The structure of trading is expected to evolve, with a significant increase in short-term trading as the market becomes more flexible and responsive to actual supply and demand [7]. Additional Important Content - **Market Volatility**: The entry of renewable energy is likely to increase price volatility in the electricity market, which will drive demand for regional power forecasting products [8]. - **Future Market Growth**: The power forecasting market is projected to grow significantly, with demand potentially reaching ten times the size of 2024 by 2030. This growth is driven by both centralized and distributed generation policies [9][10]. - **Current Market Landscape**: The current power forecasting market is valued at around 1 billion, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by a few key players. Technological advancements are being made to improve forecasting accuracy [11]. - **Data Advantages**: Power forecasting service providers have advantages in data acquisition, particularly through local data collection, which enhances forecasting precision [12]. - **AI in Meteorology**: The application of AI in meteorology is expected to improve weather forecasting accuracy, which is crucial for power forecasting in the context of renewable energy integration [13]. - **Role of SMEs**: Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are becoming increasingly active in the market due to favorable pricing, and they are expected to transition from simple electricity purchasing to more integrated service offerings [14]. - **Investment Directions**: Key investment areas include the expansion of the renewable power forecasting niche market and the operational aspects involving SMEs and distributed energy resources [19][20]. - **Risks in Market Promotion**: Potential risks include policy implementation delays, increased competition, and uncertainties regarding future company performance, which could affect the overall development pace of the market [21].