Core Viewpoint - The actual tariff implementation in the US during the first half of the year was less than expected, leading to a moderate rise in inflation. The average import tariff rate is expected to increase in the second half, potentially accelerating price increases by companies, which may result in a "slow heating" inflation scenario in the US [1][3]. Tariff Policy - As of June, the actual average import tariff rate in the US increased by only 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is significantly below market expectations. The low tariff collection is attributed to changes in import structure and a low proportion of taxable goods. The average import tariff rate is expected to rise further in the second half of the year due to the implementation of new tariff rates and gradual enforcement of industry tariffs [1][2]. Overseas Exporters - The US import price index, which reflects the dollar prices paid by importers excluding tariffs, shows no significant decline in import prices for most goods since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April. Although overseas exporters may lower prices due to a weaker dollar since 2025, the extent of this price reduction may be offset by the dollar's depreciation. Overall, US import costs have not shown a significant decline, and the burden of tariff costs primarily falls on US companies and consumers [2]. US Companies - As of June, US companies bore approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers accounted for less than 40%. As inventory is gradually consumed and trade policy uncertainty decreases, companies are expected to continue raising prices. However, given the current sensitivity of consumers to prices, companies may still need to absorb a significant portion of the tariff costs [2]. Consumer Inflation - Certain goods, such as auto parts, new cars, clothing, and furniture, have a high dependency on imports. However, the transmission of tariffs to prices for new cars, clothing, personal care items, and other durable goods remains limited. If the average import tariff rate in the US rises by 10% within the year, and demand remains stable, tariffs could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE growth rate to 3.4%. Conversely, a significant drop in demand could alleviate inflationary pressures in the US [3].