关税传导

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关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强
Haitong Securities International· 2025-08-18 09:16
Inflation Data - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[6] - Core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3.0%[6] - Month-on-month CPI growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI increased to 0.3%[6] Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation was supported by a rebound in transportation goods, particularly used cars, which saw a month-on-month increase of 1.2 percentage points to 0.5%[10] - Tariff-sensitive goods experienced a slowdown in growth, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods showing reduced month-on-month growth rates compared to June[11] - Core services inflation was driven by strong performance in medical services and transportation, with the airline ticket component rising by 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%[15] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut[22] - The market anticipates three rate cuts in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December[22] - Concerns remain regarding the persistence of core service inflation, which may complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding consecutive rate cuts[24] Risks and Considerations - The transmission of tariffs to core goods inflation remains slow, influenced by factors such as consumer demand and corporate pricing strategies[23] - The labor market's stability and upcoming employment data will be critical in shaping future Fed policy decisions[24] - Risks include potential concerns over the Fed's independence and the possibility of a stronger-than-expected labor market[25]
海外周报20250817:美联储全年降息预期仍存在回调风险-20250817
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-17 11:01
Economic Indicators - The U.S. July core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, ending a five-month streak of underperformance against expectations, but did not exceed forecasts, leading to heightened interest in rate cuts[1] - The July PPI surged by 0.95%, significantly surpassing the expected 0.2%, indicating ongoing tariff impacts on wholesale prices[1] - Retail sales in July rose by 0.5%, slightly below the expected 0.6%, but showed resilience with a revision from a previous increase of 0.6% to 0.9%[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Current market pricing suggests an 84.5% probability of a rate cut in September, with an expectation of 2.187 cuts throughout the year, which may be overly optimistic[2] - In a more optimistic scenario, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, in September and December; in a pessimistic scenario, only once in October[2] - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 are projected to be 4, 5, or 6 times under pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios, respectively[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 4.316%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.2 basis points to 3.751%[1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.94% and 0.81%, respectively, while gold prices dropped by 1.81% to $3,336 per ounce[1] Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict was positively received, potentially easing geopolitical tensions and improving market risk appetite[2] - The lack of new sanctions from Trump post-meeting may alleviate some tariff-related risks, contributing to a more favorable market outlook[2] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]
【宏观】关税传导可控,降息预期升温——2025年7月美国CPI数据点评(高瑞东/刘星辰)
光大证券研究· 2025-08-13 23:04
Core Viewpoint - July US inflation data aligns with expectations, indicating that tariff impacts are relatively controllable [5][7] Group 1: July US Inflation Data - July CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month and slightly below the market expectation of 2.8% [4][7] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3% in the previous month, primarily due to a decline in energy prices [7] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, while month-on-month core CPI increased to 0.3% from 0.2% [4][7] Group 2: Inflation Structure and Tariff Impact - Commodity inflation did not accelerate, remaining stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while service inflation showed an upward trend [7][8] - Prices for new and used cars stabilized, with month-on-month increases of 0% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating a gradual spread of tariff impacts [7] - Prices in previously increased categories such as clothing, home appliances, and entertainment began to decline, suggesting that companies are absorbing tariff costs due to slowing consumer demand [6][7] Group 3: Employment Data and Interest Rate Expectations - Weak employment data and moderate inflation have raised expectations for a rate cut in September to 94.3%, up from 85.9% the previous day [9] - The overall market response included a rise in US stocks and a slight decline in the dollar index following the inflation data release [9] - Despite the current inflation being manageable, there are concerns about potential upward pressure on inflation due to ongoing tariff impacts and tightening immigration policies affecting labor supply [9]
【光大研究每日速递】20250814
光大证券研究· 2025-08-13 23:04
Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The July US inflation data met expectations, with a controllable impact from tariffs. The month-on-month inflation rate for goods remained stable at +0.2%, despite tariff effects spreading to the automotive sector. Prices in previously affected categories like clothing, home appliances, and entertainment have started to decline, likely due to reduced consumer demand leading companies to absorb tariff costs [5]. - Weak employment data combined with moderate inflation has raised expectations for a rate cut in September, with a probability of 94.3% for such an action [5]. Group 2: Company Performance Analysis - Wei Xing New Materials (002372.SZ) reported a decline in revenue and net profit due to weak downstream demand in H1 2025. However, the company maintained a high level of operational quality, showing year-on-year improvement, which is commendable under current market conditions [6]. - Ampere Dragon (301413.SZ) has an optimistic outlook with projected revenue growth of 24.6%, 53.9%, and 89.8% for 2025-2027 compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to grow by 43.7%, 86.2%, and 131.3% respectively, indicating strong business growth expectations despite some concerns over profit margins due to client cost-cutting pressures [7]. - Kingdee International (0268.HK) achieved total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. Cloud service revenue grew by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.095 billion RMB, reflecting a gross margin of 65.6%, slightly above market expectations [8]. - Jinbo Bio (832982.BJ) reported a revenue of 860 million RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with net profit growing by 26.7%. The revenue for Q1 and Q2 was 370 million RMB and 490 million RMB respectively, showing significant growth rates [9]. - Action Education (605098.SH) faced short-term business pressure with a revenue decline of 11.7% to 340 million RMB in H1 2025. However, the company is advancing its AI strategic transformation and maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [9].
国泰海通|宏观:关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强——2025年7月美国物价数据点评
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-13 14:31
Core Insights - The July CPI data indicates that the transmission of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [1][2] - The current market's expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year may be overly optimistic, as immigration and tariff policies will continue to impact inflation in the second half of the year [3] Inflation Data - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7% (previous value 2.7%, market expectation 2.8%). The core CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% (market expectation 0.2%), while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), aligning with market expectations [1] Core Goods and Services - The increase in transportation goods inflation in July was a major support for core goods, particularly the significant rebound in the used car segment [2] - Tariff-sensitive goods showed a decline in month-on-month growth rates, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods maintaining positive growth but at a slower pace compared to June [2] - Medical services and transportation were the main drivers of core services, with strong performance in dental services and airline ticket prices, likely influenced by a rebound in travel demand [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data suggests that the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service demand may lead to a "soft landing" scenario rather than a recession, impacting market expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming employment data for August and the Jackson Hole central bank conference will be critical events for observing the Fed's monetary policy decisions [3]
国泰海通 · 晨报0814|宏观、金融工程
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-13 14:31
Macro Analysis - The core viewpoint of the article is that the transmission of tariffs remains slow, leading to an increased expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value, while the core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% [3] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [3] - Food and energy inflation showed a month-on-month decline, with core services being the main driver for the core CPI's month-on-month increase [3] Core Goods and Services - The month-on-month growth rate of tariff-sensitive core goods has declined, with transportation goods inflation being a major support for core goods [3] - The significant rebound in the used car segment contributed to this growth, while tariff-sensitive items like furniture, clothing, and leisure goods saw a decrease in growth rates compared to June [3] - Medical services, particularly dental services, and transportation services, especially airfares, were strong performers in July, driven by a recovery in travel demand [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data indicates that tariff transmission is still slow, and service demand has not shown a significant slowdown, reinforcing market expectations for a September interest rate cut [4] - The persistent core service inflation suggests that the market is trading on a "soft landing" rather than a "recession" scenario, leading to a decline in short-term US Treasury yields [4] - The article suggests that the market's expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may be overly optimistic due to potential disruptions from upcoming employment data and the sticky nature of core service inflation [4] Financial Engineering - The article discusses the decomposition of the enhanced CSI 300 index into internal and external components, with internal stocks showing lower tracking error and relative drawdown but also weaker excess returns [7] - The external component provides greater return elasticity, and the study indicates that a multi-factor model based on fundamentals and momentum indicators is more effective for the CSI 300 index [8] - Backtesting results show that the enhanced strategy can achieve an annualized excess return of at least 10% since 2016, with an information ratio above 2.0 [8]
2025 年 7 月美国物价数据点评:关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-13 13:41
Inflation Data Summary - In July, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[7] - Core CPI increased to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%[7] - Month-on-month CPI growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI rose to 0.3%[7] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods CPI remained at 0.2% month-on-month, supported mainly by the transportation sector, particularly used cars, which saw a 1.2 percentage point increase to 0.5%[11] - Tariff-sensitive goods experienced a slowdown in growth, with furniture and clothing showing declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared to June[12] - Core services CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, driven by strong performance in dental and air travel services, with airfares increasing by 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%[13] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut[21] - The market anticipates three rate cuts within the year, scheduled for September, October, and December[21] - Despite the optimistic outlook, the company believes the market's expectation of three rate cuts may be overly optimistic due to persistent core service inflation and ongoing tariff impacts[23] Risks and Considerations - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced, alongside the potential for continued strength in the U.S. labor market, which could disrupt rate cut expectations[24] - The impact of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, with the potential for further increases in tariffs in the latter half of the year, which may continue to affect inflation dynamics[22]
2025年7月美国物价数据点评:关税传导仍慢,降息预期增强
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-13 09:52
Inflation Data - In July, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, unchanged from June and below the market expectation of 2.8%[11] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 3.0%[11] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, aligning with market expectations[11] Core Goods and Services - Core goods inflation remained at 0.2% month-on-month, supported mainly by transportation goods, particularly used cars, which saw a significant increase of 1.2 percentage points to 0.5%[15] - Core services inflation increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, driven by strong performance in dental services and airfares, which rose by 1.3 percentage points to 2.6% and 4.1 percentage points to 4.0%, respectively[20] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the probability rising to 94% for a 25 basis point cut[30] - Current market expectations for three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, given the persistent core service inflation and ongoing impacts from tariffs and immigration policies[32] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to core goods inflation remains slow, with concerns that tariffs will continue to influence inflation in the second half of the year[31] - Despite some positive growth in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and clothing, the growth rates have slowed compared to June[16]
美国7月CPI点评:关税传导仍不明显,其他政策影响也在显现
BOCOM International· 2025-08-13 09:39
Global Macro - The July CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and below the expected 2.8% [2] - The core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in the previous month, indicating a continuous increase over three months [2] - Energy prices have significantly contributed to the decline in inflation, with international oil prices dropping due to easing geopolitical tensions [4] - The core goods and services prices have both risen, with tariffs not fully reflected in the current inflation data as US companies absorbed over 50% of the tariff costs [2][4] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 93.6%, with expectations of nearly three cuts throughout the year [2] - The soft non-farm payroll data in July raises concerns about employment, making a rate cut a reasonable action for the Federal Reserve [3] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference may provide signals regarding potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods prices have risen for four consecutive months, driven by tariff impacts on furniture and used car prices [4] - Supercore inflation, excluding housing, has shown significant increases, particularly in medical services, influenced by recent policy changes [4] - The rising costs in medical services are attributed to cuts in healthcare spending and potential tariffs on drug imports, leading to increased insurance premiums [4]
2025年7月美国CPI数据点评:关税传导可控,降息预期升温
EBSCN· 2025-08-13 06:01
Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In July, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's value and slightly below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above the market expectation of 3.0%[2] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Consumer Behavior - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident, with July's goods inflation remaining stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[3] - Prices in previously affected sectors like clothing and appliances are showing signs of stabilization or decline, indicating that companies may be absorbing tariff costs due to weakened consumer demand[4] - Service inflation is rebounding, with significant increases in medical services (+0.8%), vehicle maintenance (+1.0%), and airfares (+4.0%) reflecting rising labor costs[5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data and moderate inflation figures, the expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 94.3%, up from 85.9% the previous day[6] - The current inflation outlook suggests potential challenges for future rate cuts, as tariff impacts may continue to spread, leading to price increases that could eventually be passed on to consumers[6] - The tightening of immigration policies may also affect labor supply, potentially increasing service inflation persistence[6]