本文来自微信公众号：智通财经 （ID：cailianpress），作者：潇湘，题图来自：视觉中国（马查多） 就在委内瑞拉反对派领袖马查多（Maria Corina Machado）被宣布成为今年诺贝尔和平奖得主的数小时 前，网络预测平台上押注她即将胜出的投注陡然激增。目前，挪威诺贝尔研究所正在调查可能的泄密事 件…… 事实上，在挪威奥斯陆时间周五上午11点宣布获奖结果之前，无论是专家还是媒体，都没有将马查多视 为夺得本届诺贝尔和平奖的热门人选。截至奥斯陆时间周五凌晨0点，马查多在全球最大的预测市场之 一Polymarket上的支持率还仅为约3.7%，而前一天则一度只有不到1%。 然而，她胜出的几率在此后几分钟内就迅速跃升至31.5%，随后又升至73.5%。 据悉，Polymarket平台上一个名为"6741"的新账户，率先在午夜掀起了大量押注马查多胜出的"冷门选 项"。这位身份不明的交易者在这笔押注中赚取了逾5万美元利润。由于其是在成交量稀薄的时段进行买 入操作，使马查多胜出的概率在此后迅速飙升。 其他交易者乘势跟进了"6741"引发的行情，尤其当押注行为在社交媒体引发关注后。Polymarket数据显 示， ...

就在委内瑞拉反对派领袖马查多(Maria Corina Machado)被宣布成为今年诺贝尔和平奖得主的数小时前， 网络预测平台上押注她即将胜出的投注陡然激增。目前，挪威诺贝尔研究所正在调查可能的泄密事 件…… 事实上，在挪威奥斯陆时间周五上午11点宣布获奖结果之前，无论是专家还是媒体，都没有将马查多视 为夺得本届诺贝尔和平奖的热门人选。截至奥斯陆时间周五凌晨0点，马查多在全球最大的预测市场之 一Polymarket上的支持率还仅为约3.7%，而前一天则一度只有不到1%。 然而，她胜出的几率在此后几分钟内就迅速跃升至31.5%，随后又升至73.5%。 据悉，Polymarket平台上一个名为"6741"的新账户，率先在午夜掀起了大量押注马查多胜出的"冷门选 项"。这位身份不明的交易者在这笔押注中赚取了逾5万美元利润。由于其是在成交量稀薄的时段进行买 入操作，使马查多胜出的概率在此后迅速飙升。 其他交易者乘势跟进了"6741"引发的行情，尤其当押注行为在社交媒体引发关注后。Polymarket数据显 示，当马奇多胜算在60%至71%之间徘徊时，名为"GayPride"的交易员也一夜之间连续下注，最终获利 逾8. ...

Core Insights - Traditional financial giants are increasingly focusing on emerging crypto prediction markets, with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) negotiating a significant investment in Polymarket, potentially valuing the platform between $8 billion and $10 billion [1][2] Group 1: Investment and Market Dynamics - ICE is reportedly close to finalizing a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, which could reshape the platform's future and enhance its credibility in the market [1] - The investment comes as Polymarket seeks to re-enter the crucial U.S. market after being banned from serving U.S. users since 2022 [1][2] - The political environment has shifted favorably for Polymarket, with improved relations with U.S. regulatory bodies under the Trump administration [2] Group 2: Growth of Prediction Markets - The interest from ICE highlights the growing influence of prediction markets, with Polymarket gaining significant traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, achieving over $2 billion in trading volume [3] - Competitors like Kalshi are also experiencing rapid growth, with a recent valuation of $2 billion and record trading volumes through partnerships with platforms like Robinhood [3] Group 3: Strategic Moves and Controversies - ICE's negotiations with Polymarket align with its strategic focus on capturing emerging trends in financial market infrastructure, reflecting a significant bet on the future potential of prediction markets [4] - The entry of ICE into the prediction market space places it at the center of ongoing debates regarding financial innovation and traditional regulatory boundaries, especially in light of pushback from traditional gambling industries [4]

Group 1 - Polymarket is returning to the US market by acquiring QCX for $112 million, following the termination of a federal investigation against it [1][2] - The platform allows users to bet on future events through a "prediction market" mechanism, which gained significant traction during the 2024 US presidential election [1][2] - The US Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have officially notified Polymarket that their investigation is concluded, which previously focused on compliance with a 2022 settlement agreement [1][2] Group 2 - The acquisition of QCX, which received CFTC approval to operate in July 2025, enables Polymarket to legally reopen to US users [2] - Polymarket's advertising during the Republican National Convention and in New York City has drawn considerable attention, introducing many to the concept of "crypto prediction markets" [2] - Despite the acquisition, the regulatory status of prediction markets in the US remains ambiguous, with ongoing debates about whether such contracts constitute "speculative instruments" [2]