自三个月前上一次融资，估值20亿美元以来，Kalshi的估值已增长2.5 倍。 有消息称，Kalshi的年交易量预计将达到500亿美元，远高于2024年约3亿美元的交易量。 在Kalshi宣布融资之前，其主要竞争对手Polymarket也宣布了融资消息。Polymarket宣布已从纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所（ICE）获得高达20亿美元的 投资，其融资前估值为80亿美元，较其两个月前的10亿美元估值大幅提升。 雷递由媒体人雷建平创办，若转载请写明来源。 雷递网 乐天 10月12日 据外媒披露，预测市场网站Kalshi日前宣布融资超过3亿美元，估值达到50亿美元。这笔新资金来自Kalshi的现有投资者红杉资本，新投资者安德森·霍洛维茨 基金共同领投，Paradigm Ventures、CapitalG 和 Coinbase Ventures 也参与了本轮融资。 ——————————————— ...

就在委内瑞拉反对派领袖马查多(Maria Corina Machado)被宣布成为今年诺贝尔和平奖得主的数小时前，网络预测平台上押注她即将胜出 的投注陡然激增。目前，挪威诺贝尔研究所正在调查可能的泄密事件…… 事实上，在挪威奥斯陆时间周五上午11点宣布获奖结果之前，无论是专家还是媒体，都没有将马查多视为夺得本届诺贝尔和平奖的热门人 选。 截至奥斯陆时间周五凌晨0点，马查多在全球最大的预测市场之一Polymarket上的支持率还仅为约3.7%，而前一天则一度只有不到 1%。 然而，她胜出的几率在此后几分钟内就迅速跃升至31.5%，随后又升至73.5%。 据悉，Polymarket平台上一个名为"6741"的新账户，率先在午夜掀起了大量押注马查多胜出的"冷门选项"。 这位身份不明的交易者在这 笔押注中赚取了逾5万美元利润。由于其是在成交量稀薄的时段进行买入操作，使马查多胜出的概率在此后迅速飙升。 Polymarket平台允许用户对政治、体育、流行文化等各类议题的二元问题进行投注。其合约价格反映未来事件发生的概率，由押注不同结 果的交易者拉锯形成。 Polymarket在成为2024年美国总统大选热门投注平台并准确 ...

事件发生在Polymarket估值飙升至80亿美元的关键时刻。纽约证券交易所母公司本周刚宣布将向该 平台投资高达20亿美元，彰显了主流金融机构对预测市场日益增长的兴趣。 午夜异动：神秘账户的精准狙击 戏剧性的一幕发生在奥斯陆时间周五凌晨，在诺贝尔和平奖宣布前约12小时，一个名为"6741"的新注 册账户突然开始大举押注Machado获奖。 此时Machado在专家预测和媒体报道中均未被列为热门候选人，在Polymarket上的获奖概率仅为 3.7%。但在"6741"的推动下，她的胜率在数分钟内飙升至31.5%，随后进一步攀升至73.5%。 在诺贝尔和平奖宣布前约12小时，一个名为"6741"的新注册账户在Polymarket突然开始大举押注 Machado获奖，在"6741"的推动下Machado的胜率在数分钟从5%左右内飙升至70%，最终斩获超过 5万美元利润。在这个交易量相对较小的市场中，这些押注足以显著改变赔率。 一位神秘交易员在诺贝尔和平奖揭晓前12小时的精准押注，引发了关于内幕交易的质疑风暴。 据媒体周六报道， 在委内瑞拉反对派领袖María Corina Machado获得2024年诺贝尔和平奖之 ...

前几天我刚分享了 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读《 零营收！估值 90 亿美金独角兽：Prediction Market 炸裂硅 谷 》，没想到今天 Kalshi 就宣布又完成了新一轮的巨额融资。 难得的是，此次 Kalshi 的 3 亿美金 D 轮由 a16z 和红杉（Sequoia）联合领投，跟投方则包括了 Paradigm、Coinbase Ventures 、 General Catalyst 、 Spark Capital 和 CapitalG，估值达到了 50 亿美金。 而 Kalshi 在 6 月份才完成了 1.85 亿美金的 C 轮融资，当时估值为 20 亿美金，4 个月时间估值涨了 30 亿美金。 Kalshi 在博客里说，此轮融资为 Kalshi 的全球扩张铺平了道路，将 为预测市场创建一个单一、统一的流动性池 ，创建一个真正统一的预测市场。 Kalshi 的全球交易所将全球各地的交易者与同一组事件联系起来，从而深化了每个市场的流动性和价格发现，目前支持全球 140 多个国家。 a16z 合伙人 Chri ...

事件发生在Polymarket估值飙升至80亿美元的关键时刻。纽约证券交易所母公司本周刚宣布将向该平台投资高达20亿美元，彰显 了主流金融机构对预测市场日益增长的兴趣。 一位神秘交易员在诺贝尔和平奖揭晓前12小时的精准押注，引发了关于内幕交易的质疑风暴。 据媒体周六报道，在委内瑞拉反对派领袖María Corina Machado获得2024年诺贝尔和平奖之前12小时，一名代号"6741"的新注册 用户在加密货币预测市场Polymarket上大笔买入，将María Corina Machado的获奖概率从5%大幅推高至70%，最终斩获超过5万 美元利润。 挪威诺贝尔研究所已启动调查，怀疑存在信息泄露。该机构发言人Erik Aasheim表示："我们注意到有人通过押注今年的奖项获得 了巨额利润，我们将调查这是否意味着有人非法获取了我们的内部信息。" 这一事件凸显了快速增长的预测市场面临的监管盲区。作为一个离岸、无监管的平台，Polymarket并不禁止内幕交易，也不受美 国相关法律约束。 午夜异动：神秘账户的精准狙击 戏剧性的一幕发生在奥斯陆时间周五凌晨，在诺贝尔和平奖宣布前约12小时，一个名为"6741"的新 ...

华尔街日报援引知情人士透露，ICE正接近达成向Polymarket投资20亿美元的交易，该交易对Polymarket 的估值可能在80亿至100亿美元之间。相关细节仍在商议中，但最早可能于本周二宣布。 对于Polymarket而言，这笔来自全球领先交易所运营商的投资将极大地提升其信誉，并为其重返至关重 要的美国市场提供强大助力。自2022年以来，Polymarket一直被禁止向美国用户提供服务。 传统金融巨头正将目光投向新兴的加密预测市场。纽约证券交易所的母公司洲际交易所 这笔潜在交易的背景是，预测市场正获得越来越多的主流关注，同时Polymarket与美国监管机构的关系 在对加密货币更为友好的特朗普政府领导下有所改善，为其在美国市场的回归铺平了道路。 （Intercontinental Exchange, ICE）正洽谈对基于加密技术的预测平台Polymarket进行一笔重大投资，此 举不仅可能重塑Polymarket的未来，也标志着主流资本对这一新兴领域的进一步认可。 监管解冻与重返美国之路 Polymarket并非个例，其竞争对手也在快速发展。例如，Kalshi在最近一轮融资中估值达到20亿美元， 并通 ...

Group 1 - Charles Schwab, a billionaire and founder of Charles Schwab Corporation, has invested significantly in the prediction market startup Kalshi, which has seen its valuation rise to $2 billion as of June 2023 [1] - Kalshi's user base expanded tenfold after receiving regulatory approval to offer presidential election contracts, with over 2 million users betting more than $1 billion by election night [5][6] - The prediction market industry is attracting investments from numerous billionaires, including Thomas Peterffy and Jeff Yass, who see potential in using probability thinking for future events [2][6] Group 2 - Kalshi's revenue model is based on traditional commission fees for each contract traded, with a monthly trading volume of approximately $1 billion [8][9] - The company has established partnerships with major platforms like Robinhood, enhancing its liquidity and market presence [9][10] - The potential market size for prediction markets is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions, with significant growth opportunities anticipated [10] Group 3 - Kalshi's main competitor, Polymarket, has also attracted high-profile investments and is preparing for new funding rounds, with its valuation expected to reach $9 billion [3][12] - The prediction market sector is becoming a cultural focal point, with various betting opportunities emerging around significant events [5] - Regulatory challenges remain, as Kalshi faces lawsuits regarding the legality of its sports betting contracts, which are a major part of its business [12]

Core Insights - Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows users to bet on various global events, transforming uncertainty into tradable financial instruments [5][9][12] - The platform has gained significant traction, with a notable bet on the 2024 U.S. presidential election generating $3.68 billion in wagers, highlighting its appeal and the potential for substantial profits [3][4] - Polymarket's unique structure eliminates the traditional "house" advantage found in casinos, allowing for a more equitable betting environment [12][16] Group 1: Polymarket's Functionality - Polymarket operates like a stock market for events, where users can place bets on outcomes such as interest rate changes or election results, with prices reflecting the market's perceived probabilities [9][10][11] - The platform allows users to trade their positions at any time before the event concludes, enabling dynamic risk management and profit-taking [17][20] - Polymarket incentivizes liquidity by rewarding users who provide buy and sell orders near current market prices, enhancing market activity [21][23] Group 2: Historical Context and Evolution - The concept of prediction markets dates back centuries, with early examples seen in political elections and public events, evolving into modern platforms like Polymarket [46][48][51] - Polymarket's rise is attributed to the increasing demand for effective information markets in a world filled with uncertainty, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic [70][72] - The platform's founders learned from previous failures in the space, such as Augur, to create a user-friendly experience that prioritizes accessibility and stability [68][74] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Challenges - Polymarket faces legal scrutiny in the U.S., particularly regarding betting on elections, which has led to fines and operational restrictions [81][82] - Despite these challenges, the platform is exploring ways to re-enter the U.S. market, including acquiring a licensed derivatives exchange [83][84] - The platform's growth has attracted significant investment, with a valuation exceeding $1 billion, indicating strong market confidence [80] Group 4: Impact on Traditional Polling and Information Finance - Polymarket's data is increasingly recognized as a valuable alternative to traditional polling methods, with major financial institutions integrating its insights [87][88] - The platform is seen as a potential "fifth power" in the information landscape, challenging traditional media narratives and providing real-time sentiment analysis [106][112] - Critics raise ethical concerns about the implications of financializing human suffering and the potential for manipulation within the betting markets [127][128]

Historical Context - Prediction markets have a long history, dating back over a thousand years in various fields including politics and military outcomes [1] - The first formal prediction market legislation was introduced in 1591 by Pope Gregory XIV, prohibiting betting on the outcomes of papal conclaves [1] - In the 18th century, London coffeehouses became venues for betting on political events, with odds published in newspapers [1] Early American Prediction Markets - The first recorded American "whale" was Charles James Fox, who heavily invested in political event predictions, leading to his bankruptcy [2] - Early American betting on elections can be traced back to the 19th century, with notable figures like James Buchanan and John Van Buren participating in wagers [2] Development of Formal Prediction Markets - The first significant prediction market in the U.S. was centered around billiard halls in New York City, where betting on election outcomes became common [3] - Betting odds were often used as indicators of public sentiment before the advent of modern polling methods [3] Modern Prediction Markets - The 1960s saw the emergence of betting on elections in London, with companies like Ladbrokes leading the way [5] - Betfair became the largest peer-to-peer betting market, allowing bets on various political events [5] Regulatory Landscape - The Iowa Electronic Market was launched in 1988 as an academic experiment, operating under a non-enforcement letter from the CFTC [6] - Intrade, launched in the early 2000s, became a popular platform for political betting but faced regulatory challenges leading to its eventual closure [7][8] Recent Developments - PredictIt emerged as a successor to Intrade, gaining popularity during the 2016 and 2020 elections but faced regulatory scrutiny from the CFTC [9][10] - Kalshi and Polymarket are the current leaders in the prediction market space, with Kalshi focusing on event-based trading and Polymarket utilizing cryptocurrency [12][13] Future Outlook - The prediction market industry is expected to grow, driven by increased public interest and participation, particularly during election cycles [12][14] - Regulatory challenges remain a significant hurdle, with ongoing legal battles affecting the operations of companies like Kalshi and Polymarket [14][15] - The future of prediction markets may hinge on how these companies navigate competition and regulatory landscapes, with potential for both growth and consolidation [14][15]

Group 1 - Polymarket has acquired QCX for $112 million, paving the way for its return to the U.S. market after a federal investigation was closed [1][2] - The acquisition provides Polymarket with a regulated entity to operate contract trading within the U.S., which is crucial for compliance [1][2] - Polymarket has attracted approximately $6 billion in trading volume globally this year, but had to close services to U.S. users since 2022 [1][3] Group 2 - QCEX, based in Boca Raton, Florida, is a newly regulated exchange that received its operating license from the CFTC in July 2023 [2] - The acquisition allows Polymarket to operate as a fully regulated platform in the U.S., enabling American users to trade their predictions [2] - The regulatory environment has become more favorable for prediction markets, with recent developments indicating a shift towards acceptance [3][4]