这种变化也体现在数据上。去年，加密交易所应用的下载量大幅下滑，而预测市场却走向了相反的方 向。根据市场情报公司Sensor Tower的数据，Polymarket的安装量从去年1月的3万次攀升至去年12月的 40多万次;Kalshi的安装量在同一时期从8万次暴涨至130万次。与此同时，全球最大的加密交易所币安的 下载量则减少了一半以上。 智通财经APP获悉，加密货币市场的参与者如今正在大举转向预测市场。这种转向反映了机遇与倦怠并 存。比特币自去年十月峰值以来已下跌近30%，许多山寨币表现更为糟糕。加密货币的暴跌耗尽了该领 域的活力和关注度。相比之下，预测市场吸引了同样的投机人群，因为该市场提供了更直接的刺激—— 二元赔率、现实世界的赌注、快速的结果，没有多年路线图，只有"是"或"否"的结果带来的多巴胺循 环。 曾是加密货币交易员的Nikshep Saravanan不久前还深陷于加密货币领域——交易Meme币、联系风险投 资人、并尝试为数字创作者推出一家初创公司，如今已选择每天花上数小时泡在预测市场里。Nikshep Saravanan还在去年秋季创建了HumanPlane——一个用于研究和追踪预测市场的平台， ...

（来源：吴说） 乌克兰已正式封禁预测市场平台 Polymarket，且该平台目前没有合法途径重返乌克兰市场。根据乌克兰 电子通信国家监管委员会发布的第 695 号决议，Polymarket 被归类为未获得当地许可的非法赌博服务， 其域名已被列入封禁名单，互联网服务提供商必须限制访问。此前，Polymarket 因开设关于"俄罗斯何 时占领乌克兰城市"等战争相关赌注而引发乌克兰当局和媒体的强烈批评。(CoinDesk) ...

Core Insights - The prediction market is evolving from a marginal experiment to a more institutionalized and long-term value phase, demonstrating that collective predictions can form effective consensus in uncertain events [1] - Key challenges for the long-term development of prediction markets include privacy, sustainable incentives, and conditions for institutional participation [1] Company Overview - Venus Prediction is emerging as a significant player in the prediction market, initiated by the Singapore VENUS Foundation, with a team from diverse backgrounds in traditional finance and cutting-edge technology [3] - The platform aims to shift focus from short-term trading to long-term systems, emphasizing long-term dividends, ecological growth, and real value [3] Platform Architecture - Venus Prediction aims to build the first fully on-chain prediction market platform in blockchain history [5] - The platform's prediction, settlement, incentive, and dividend mechanisms are executed through on-chain rules to reduce human intervention and information asymmetry [6] Economic Model - The platform utilizes a single token, VS, as the value carrier, with a total supply fixed at 200 million tokens, never to be increased [7] - The distribution structure allocates 50% for the founding stock plan, 2% for global KOL public offerings, 10% for on-chain DeFi liquidity pools, 10% locked by the foundation for two years, and 28% for ecological development and mining incentives, reflecting a long-term focus [8] Dividend Mechanism - Venus Prediction plans to distribute 50% of the total network fees to founding stock holders, with an additional 1% for new prediction markets during the model period, linking platform growth directly to long-term holder benefits [9] Timeline for Founding Stock and Token - The global sale of Venus founding stock is scheduled to begin on January 20, 2026, with a tiered participation structure [10][11] - Following the founding stock phase, a global KOL public offering will start on April 22, 2026, with a total of 40,000 VS tokens available [13] Future Outlook - Venus Prediction aims to evolve prediction markets from niche tools to sustainable decision-making infrastructures, addressing long-term issues through clear distribution mechanisms and on-chain dividends [16] - The platform is positioned to play a foundational and long-term role in the transition of predictions from judgment tools to value production methods [17][18]

华尔街金融巨头高盛集团(GS.US)在去年最后一个季度重新回到了华尔街股票资本市场(即ECM市场)营收排行榜的榜 首位置，高盛夺魁之际正值华尔街各大银行业巨头们争夺有望于2026年在美股市场进行首次公开募股(IPO)大型项目 (包括OpenAI、Anthropic以及SpaceX等)的承销角色。此外，高盛集团正在密切关注预测市场(Prediction Markets)领域 的重大投资机遇，希望借此在这一快速增长的且围绕现实世界事件下注的平台中获益，力争成为类似Polymarket这样 的预测市场平台。 这家总部位于纽约的金融巨头报告称，2025年最后三个月，其股票承销性质的营收约为5.21亿美元，超越了摩根士丹 利的4.94亿美元和摩根大通的4.16亿美元同项业务营收规模。 短期内难以逾越 高盛首席执行官大卫.所罗门表示，这一数字(2025年最后三个月的股票承销类营收数据)在短期内不太可能被超越。 如上图所示，高盛领跑华尔街第四季度股票承销业务。 "我猜测，股票资本市场的整体水平在2026年仍会明显低于2021年的峰值，但会稍微高于今年的水平，至于季度水平 则难以精准预测。"所罗门在周四的银行财报电话会议上告 ...

来源：环球市场播报 华尔街主流公司进军预测市场可能会提升这个监管宽松但蓬勃发展的金融领域的合法性和交易量。一些 做市商公司已经加入混战。 高盛已经与预测市场存在关联。领英资料显示，该行业最大的公司之一Kalshi的首席执行官兼联合创始 人Tarek Mansour曾在大学期间在高盛担任过几个月的分析师。 所罗门表示："我当然能预见这与我们业务的交汇点。"他指的是受美国商品期货交易委员会监管的预测 市场合约。不过，他也提醒称其接纳速度可能不会像一些观察人士预测的那样快。 该公司首席执行官大卫·所罗门称预测市场"极为有趣"，并表示在过去两周内，他亲自会见了两家最大 预测市场公司的领导人。 所罗门周四在该银行公布第四季度财报后与分析师的通话中说："我们这有一个团队会花时间与他们沟 通并研究此事。" 高盛集团正在关注预测市场的机会，这将使这家投资银行能够从快速增长的、针对现实世界事件进行投 注的领域中获益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour supports a bill proposed by U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres aimed at banning insider trading in prediction markets, emphasizing that Kalshi adheres to NYSE and NASDAQ regulations regarding such restrictions [1] Group 1 - Kalshi has implemented measures to comply with regulations set by major exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ [1] - Recent controversies in prediction markets have primarily arisen from "offshore, unregulated" platforms [1] - A specific incident involving Polymarket, where a user profited approximately $400,000 from betting on the Venezuelan presidential situation, has sparked discussions about insider trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and investment interest in prediction markets, particularly focusing on Polymarket, which has gained significant attention due to its high returns and the implications of insider trading concerns in geopolitical events [2][3]. Group 1: Polymarket Overview - Polymarket is a prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events, including political and social issues, using stablecoins [2][5]. - The platform has seen substantial financial backing, including a $40 million Series A round and a $55 million Series B round, leading to a valuation of $350 million [10]. - The founder, Shayne Coplan, has become a billionaire at the age of 27, marking him as the first billionaire of Generation Z [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The prediction market sector is attracting significant venture capital interest, with competitors like Kalshi also experiencing rapid growth, raising over $300 million and achieving a valuation of $5 billion [15]. - Traditional exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are entering the prediction market space, indicating a shift in the financial landscape [16]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The rise of prediction markets has raised regulatory concerns, particularly regarding the potential for market manipulation and insider trading, as highlighted by recent events surrounding the betting on political outcomes [19][20]. - Polymarket has faced regulatory challenges, including a $1.4 million fine for operating without a license, while Kalshi has pursued compliance from the outset, becoming the first regulated platform for election prediction trading in the U.S. [20][21]. - The current regulatory stance is cautious, with economic events being more readily accepted while political contracts face intense scrutiny [22].

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's popularity peaked in April, yielding a 5.5% annualized return for those who wagered against the return, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket declared the "no" camp as the winner on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a mere 2% probability, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for the "yes" side [1] Group 1 - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes and war outbreaks [2] - Despite serious discussions, these platforms are filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some argue distract from the true value of predictive markets [3] - The concept of applying secular odds to religious matters has historical roots, as seen in Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager," which suggests that the probability game has continued into the present [3] Group 2 - The extreme low-probability speculative behavior observed in these markets is not surprising, as people are known to buy lottery tickets despite astronomical odds, indicating that markets will always find ways to turn uncertainty into speculative opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The emerging prediction market Polymarket has gained attention for a peculiar bet on whether "Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025," which has attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding over the past year, with most investors betting against the return [1] - The bet's peak popularity in April allowed investors who wagered against the return to achieve a 5.5% annualized return before fees, surpassing the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen as a safe investment benchmark [1] - As 2025 approaches, Polymarket announced the victory of the "no" camp on January 1, and new bets for Jesus's return by the end of 2026 have opened, with a probability of only 2%, suggesting a potential return of over 5700% for those betting on "yes" [1][3] Summary of Prediction Markets - Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi are viewed as innovative platforms that combine high-risk betting with collective intelligence to provide probabilities for significant real-world events, such as election outcomes or war outbreaks [2] - However, these platforms are also filled with bizarre contracts, including bets on movie performances and social media activity, which some critics argue distract from the value of genuine predictive markets [2] - The peculiar bet on Jesus's return has sparked discussions about its purpose, with some users speculating it may serve as a tax loss strategy, while others criticize it as a trivial market [2] Historical Context - The application of secular odds to religious matters is not without historical precedent, as Blaise Pascal's "Pascal's Wager" from the 17th century used probability calculations as a rationale for belief in God [2] - The ongoing speculation about the Messiah's return has deep roots in Christian history, despite biblical warnings that the exact timing is unknown [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of prediction markets, particularly Kalshi and Polymarket, as they gain mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, highlighting their potential as tools for forecasting events and the associated risks of being perceived as gambling platforms [4][6][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Prediction markets have seen significant engagement, with over $3 billion wagered on election outcomes, proving to be more accurate than traditional polls [4][5]. - Kalshi and Polymarket have both surpassed $1 billion valuations, attracting substantial investments from venture capitalists [5][17]. - The platforms allow users to bet on a variety of events, from geopolitical issues to pop culture, indicating a broadening of market interests [4][5]. Group 2: Operational Mechanisms - Unlike traditional gambling, prediction markets operate on a peer-to-peer betting model, where participants bet against each other rather than against a house [8][9]. - The value of event contracts fluctuates based on public sentiment and market dynamics, providing real-time insights into the probability of various outcomes [9][10]. - Kalshi has established a more compliant operational framework compared to Polymarket, which has faced legal challenges [13][16]. Group 3: Challenges and Controversies - The industry faces scrutiny over its ethical implications, with concerns that it may be viewed as a form of gambling rather than a legitimate forecasting tool [6][20]. - Both platforms have encountered regulatory hurdles, with Polymarket previously banned from operating in the U.S. due to compliance issues [12][16]. - The perception of prediction markets as "casinos" could undermine their credibility and long-term viability [6][20]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The sustainability of interest in prediction markets beyond major events like presidential elections remains uncertain [7][18]. - New competitors are emerging in the prediction market space, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [19]. - The platforms are exploring various revenue models, including transaction fees and partnerships with media and AI companies, to enhance profitability [19][20].