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红利指数,不同渠道估值数据不同,原因为何?
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-13 13:45
Group 1 - The article discusses the differences in valuation metrics for the CSI Dividend Index across various platforms, highlighting that the index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio can vary significantly depending on the weighting method used [1][2]. - The CSI Dividend Index underwent two major rule changes, first in 2013 when it switched from market capitalization weighting to dividend yield weighting, and again in 2022 to enhance the requirements for dividend stability and continuity [2][3]. - The article outlines common weighting methods for indices, including market capitalization weighting, factor weighting, price weighting, and equal weighting, with market capitalization being the most prevalent method [3][4]. Group 2 - A key characteristic of A-share bank stocks is their large total market capitalization but relatively small free-float market capitalization, leading to significant differences in weightings based on the chosen calculation method [5][6]. - The article provides a comparison of total market capitalization and free-float market capitalization, using the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as an example, with total market capitalization at 25,554.33 billion and free-float market capitalization at 2,482.45 billion [7]. - In the CSI Dividend Index, the proportion of bank stocks can vary dramatically based on the weighting method; for instance, using total market capitalization weighting results in a bank stock proportion of 63.75%, while dividend yield weighting reduces this to 22.43% [8][9]. Group 3 - The current P/E ratio of bank stocks within the CSI Dividend Index is influenced by the weighting method; total market capitalization weighting aligns the P/E ratio closer to the bank stock index at over 7 times, while the true P/E ratio based on actual stock proportions is over 9 times [10][12]. - The article lists the top 20 constituents of the CSI Dividend Index, noting that most have P/E ratios exceeding 10, indicating that the overall index P/E cannot realistically be as low as 7 times [12][13]. - The article emphasizes that the low P/E ratio of 7 times is primarily a result of the high weighting of bank stocks under total market capitalization weighting, which distorts historical data and percentiles [13][17]. Group 4 - The article mentions that various strategy indices, such as leader, dividend, value, low volatility, growth, and quality indices, do not allocate stock proportions based on total market capitalization but rather follow specific strategies [15][16]. - It highlights that early broad-based indices predominantly used total market capitalization weighting for simplicity, but the evolution of indices has led to the development of many strategy indices that require more accurate valuation calculations based on actual stock holdings [17].