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海澜之家(600398):三季度收入与净利润增长约4%,直营驱动主品牌增长企稳
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-02 12:24
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][4][23] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is stabilizing, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, reaching 4.03 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 4.0% to 280 million yuan [1][4] - The main brand's performance is stabilizing, driven by direct sales channels, with a notable increase in direct store revenue by 17.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters [2][4] - New business formats, such as JD Outlet and Adidas FCC, are expanding rapidly, contributing to overall revenue growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue increased by 3.7% to 4.03 billion yuan, while the net profit rose by 4.0% to 280 million yuan [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 41.8%, influenced by factors such as franchise store closures and increased online discounts [1] - The company reported a stable expense ratio, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.7 percentage points [1] Channel Performance - Direct sales revenue increased by 19.1% in Q3, while franchise store revenue declined by 1.2% and online revenue fell by 20.5% [2] - The company strategically slowed online growth to maintain profitability, resulting in a 3.3% decline in online revenue for the first three quarters [2] New Business Development - Other brands generated a cumulative revenue of 2.41 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a 37.2% year-on-year increase, driven by new business formats [3] - The company plans to continue expanding its new business formats, with expectations of rapid store openings in the next 3-5 years [4][23] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.18 billion, 2.30 billion, and 2.42 billion yuan respectively [4][24] - The target price has been revised to 7.20-7.70 yuan, corresponding to a 15-16x PE for 2026 [4][23]