1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand repair foundation remains weak, and the policy - driven infrastructure investment has slowed down, dragging down overall investment. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low, and policies may focus on expanding fiscal, credit, and real - estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market [11]. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but there is still no clear breakthrough. Patience is needed to wait for better allocation value. Currently, with economic data released, the market focus should shift to the capital market and the stock - bond seesaw. Short - term bond varieties have higher certainty as cross - month funds are stable [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the performance of long - term bond varieties, while stable cross - month funds supported short - term varieties [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed slightly, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.8075%, up 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: Cross - quarter funds were stable. There were 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 2886 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Short - term capital rates rose slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits down 0.22bp to 1.3103%, the 7 - day rate up 3.17bp to 1.5873%, and medium - and long - term funds rising slightly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was 1.67% with little change [10] 4.2 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [13]. - On the morning of September 29, Premier Li Qiang met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son - hee, expressing China's willingness to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with North Korea [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan, all for supplementing project capital, and efforts are being made to invest the funds in specific projects [13]. - The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 29, with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96201 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79372 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the tax payable was 3.90125 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; and the asset - liability ratio was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Transaction data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 29 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. For example, the closing price of TL2512 was 113.720, down 0.540, with a decline of 0.47% [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank capital sentiment index, short - term and medium - long - term capital rates, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate is presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Diagrams of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) are mentioned [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic data for August showed marginal weakness rather than a sharp decline. It's not necessary for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which could bring disturbances to the bond market. However, as the fastest - strengthening phase of the stock market may have passed, the pressure on the bond market from the stock market may ease. Overall, the bond market's suppression may ease but still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient for better allocation opportunities. Currently, with the release of economic data, the short - end bonds may be more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose funds [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures recovered in the afternoon, with most contracts closing higher. The yields of major inter - bank spot interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2 - 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7800%, down 2bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank resumed net injections in the open market, and the funding situation remained stable. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 287 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 40 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable, short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] 3.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th local time, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, Spain, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The real - estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [14] - As of the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data for multiple Treasury bond futures contracts on September 16th, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes figures related to the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase interest rate change [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [37]