Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, with the production and demand sides both improving. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMIs also returned to the expansion range [2][3] - The improvement in demand on the market's demand side was stronger than that on the supply side, but the differentiation between domestic and foreign demand may continue. Domestic demand in the market may remain insufficient in the short term, and policy support is needed to boost demand [4] - There are positive signals in prices, but the gap between purchase prices and ex - factory prices has widened, which may compress corporate profit margins [5] - The PMIs of the construction and service industries have both increased, and the service industry PMI has returned to the expansion range. The construction industry remains confident in its future development [5] - The target range for the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PMI Data in March - The manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4%, a 1.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, higher than the market expectation. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase, and the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a 1.0 - percentage - point increase [2][3] - After the Spring Festival, as enterprises resumed work and production, the production index increased by 1.8 percentage points, the new order index increased by 3.0 percentage points, and the new export order index increased by 4.1 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4] 3.2 Price Situation - The purchase price of major raw materials increased by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%, and the ex - factory price increased by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%. The ex - factory price index has remained in the expansion range for three consecutive months [5] 3.3 Industry Situation - The construction industry PMI was 49.3%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 50.2%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase. The business activity expectation index of the construction industry was 50.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease but still in the expansion range [5] 3.4 Bond Market Viewpoint - The target range for the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5%. The economic recovery is accelerating, and factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and real estate need to be considered [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that since 2025, the yield curve has shown a steepening trend, primarily driven by nominal economic recovery, loose monetary policy, and extended fiscal debt maturities [7][8]. - Inflation has been on the rise, with both CPI and PPI showing signs of recovery since the third quarter of 2025, contributing to improved nominal economic expectations [2][7]. - The average maturity of outstanding bonds has increased, particularly for government bonds, with local government bonds showing a significant increase of 1.2 years since 2024 [8][20]. Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2026, the main contradiction in the steepening yield curve focuses on inflation improvement expectations, with CPI showing a clear upward trend and PPI potentially turning positive due to oil price impacts [20][22]. - The report anticipates that broad credit easing will further support the steepening of the yield curve, driven by increased fiscal spending and improved export competitiveness [22][23]. - The report suggests monitoring indicators such as bill rates and high-frequency production rates to track the performance of broad credit [23][39]. Group 3 - The steepening of the yield curve is expected to continue, with short-term rates potentially rising and impacting longer-duration assets, suggesting a cautious approach to long-duration investments [43][44]. - The report highlights that while monetary policy remains loose, fiscal policy is inclined towards issuing long-term debt, which may exert pressure on the yield curve [44]. - The strategy recommends focusing on medium to short-duration credit bonds and more certain interest strategies as key allocation directions [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal data from January to February 2026 shows that non - tax revenue turned positive year - on - year, and fiscal expenditure was front - loaded, which supported the unexpected growth of economic data to some extent [4][5]. - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, mainly reflected in ensuring fiscal expenditure, optimizing the combination of government bond tools, improving the efficiency of transfer payment funds, optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal - financial coordination [5]. - It is expected that the target range of the 10 - year treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - 2 Month Fiscal Data Concerns - Tax revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.7 pct compared with the previous value. The better - than - expected import and export data in January and February may be the main reason for the year - on - year growth of tax revenue. The securities transaction stamp duty increased by 110.0% year - on - year. Non - tax revenue increased by 3.4% year - on - year, turning from negative to positive, driven by local governments' continuous activation of state - owned assets [4]. - Government fund revenue decreased by 16.0% year - on - year in January and February. Land transfer revenue decreased by 25.2% year - on - year, further dragging down government fund revenue. The decline of land transfer revenue directly led to the contraction of overall fund revenue, and the ebb of land finance may continue to drag down government fund revenue [4]. 3.2 General Public Budget - **Income**: From January to February, general public budget income increased by 0.7% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and local income increased by 2.6% year - on - year. Tax revenues such as domestic value - added tax, import - link value - added tax and consumption tax, etc., increased compared with December 2025. Non - tax revenue turned positive, with a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [6]. - **Expenditure**: From January to February, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.6% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of fiscal expenditure rebounded compared with December [6]. 3.3 Governmental Fund Budget - **Income**: From January to February, government fund income decreased by 16.0% year - on - year. Central income increased by 6.7% year - on - year, and local income decreased by 19.2% year - on - year. Land transfer income decreased by 25.2% year - on - year [7]. - **Expenditure**: From January to February, government fund expenditure increased by 16.0% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 16.3% year - on - year. Land transfer expenditure decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The growth rate of government fund expenditure in January and February increased compared with the previous value [7]. 3.4 Bond Market Views - **Fundamentals**: The falsification of the under - expected economic recovery, combined with the possible broad credit and broad fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, will accelerate the cyclical recovery [7]. - **Broad money**: If there are broad monetary policies (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases, etc.), similar to 2025, yields may decline briefly and then rise [7]. - **Inflation**: It is expected that inflation will pick up, and attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month PPI can remain positive [7]. - **Funding rate**: If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the yields of short - term bonds will also start to rise [7]. - **Real estate**: Real estate is not the main means of stabilizing growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator. Real estate may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7]. - **Bonds**: It is expected that the target range of the 10 - year treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data at the beginning of 2026 showed an unexpected rebound, with industrial production, consumption, and exports all exceeding expectations, and the investment growth rate turning from negative to positive [1][4][5] - In the process of new and old kinetic energy conversion, there are structural highlights in the equipment manufacturing, new - quality productivity, and high - tech industries, but the real estate industry is still bottom - seeking [5] - The target range of the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - 2 Month Economic Data Focus - **Industrial Production**: In January - February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 6.3%, exceeding the median and average forecasts of 9 institutions. The month - on - month growth was 0.83%, an increase of 0.44 pct compared with the previous value. The reasons were the later Spring Festival in 2026 and the high growth of exports [4] - **Consumption and Exports**: The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February increased by 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the median and average forecasts of 8 institutions. The cumulative export from January to February increased by 21.8% year - on - year, far exceeding the median and average forecasts of 6 institutions. However, domestic demand was still weaker than external demand [4] - **Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to February was 1.8%, turning from negative to positive. Infrastructure investment grew rapidly, with a year - on - year growth of 11.4%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, still dragging down investment [5] 3.2 New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Equipment Manufacturing**: In January - February, the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.3% year - on - year, accounting for 33.5% of all large - scale industries, and all 8 sub - industries achieved growth [5] - **New - Quality Productivity Industry**: In January - February, the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing increased by 13.1% year - on - year, contributing 31.5% to the growth of all large - scale industries [5] - **High - Tech Industry Investment**: In January - February, high - tech industry investment increased by 5.1% year - on - year, 3.3 pct higher than the growth rate of all investments [5] 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The falsification of the under - expected economic recovery, combined with the possible loose credit and fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, accelerates the cycle recovery [6] - **Broad Money**: If there are broad monetary policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, or bond purchases, the bond yield may decline briefly and then rise, similar to 2025 [6] - **Inflation**: It is expected that inflation will rebound, and attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month PPI can remain positive [6] - **Funding Rate**: If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and the short - term bond yield will also start to rise [6] - **Real Estate**: Real estate is not the main means of stabilizing growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6] - **Bonds**: The target range of the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to be 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations. The cumulative export from January to February increased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the export in February alone increased by 39.6% year - on - year, far exceeding the market's forecast [3]. - The reasons for the export growth exceeding expectations are the later Spring Festival in 2026 and the improvement of external demand. The development of the AI - related industrial chain, export diversification, and positive port high - frequency data also contributed to the growth. Although the Spring Festival holiday in March may put pressure on imports and exports, the long - term positive trend remains unchanged [4][5]. - The root cause of China's continuous export exceeding expectations lies in the high cost - performance of Chinese goods, which is the result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Even after "anti - involution", China's price advantage may last for a long time, so the report is optimistic about China's exports [6]. - In the bond market, on March 10, the long - term yield first rose and then fell. The report predicts that the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 January - February Import and Export Data - **Import and Export Growth**: In February 2026, imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year (25.7% in January), and exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year (10.0% in January). The trade surplus increased by 190.9% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to February increased by 21.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 19.8% year - on - year [3]. - **Exceeding Expectations**: The export in February far exceeded the market's forecast. The median and average of the 4 - institution forecast for February's export year - on - year growth were +4.0% and +3.8% respectively, while the actual growth was 39.6%. The median and average of the 6 - institution forecast for the cumulative export year - on - year growth from January to February were +7.5% and +7.3% respectively, and the actual growth was 21.8% [3]. 3.2 Reasons for the Export Growth Exceeding Expectations in January - February 2026 - **Spring Festival Factor**: The Spring Festival in 2026 was in late February, later than in 2025. The holiday disturbance was postponed, which was one of the reasons for the export growth exceeding expectations [4]. - **External Demand Improvement**: The external demand improved, and the export momentum was strong, with the export amount at a historical high [4]. - **Product Structure**: The development of the AI - related industrial chain promoted the high - growth of exports of electromechanical products and high - tech products. From January to February, the cumulative export of electromechanical products increased by 27.1% year - on - year, and the export of integrated circuits increased by 72.6% year - on - year, while high - tech products increased by 26.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Export Destination**: Except for the United States, exports to other major countries increased significantly. From January to February, exports to ASEAN increased by 29.4% year - on - year, and exports to Africa increased by 49.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Port High - Frequency Data**: The monthly average weekly container throughput of key ports in January and February increased by 13.5% and 10.9% year - on - year respectively, and the weekly throughput in the first 7 weeks was higher than that in the same period of 2025 [5]. 3.3 Root Cause of China's Continuous Export Exceeding Expectations The root cause is the high cost - performance of Chinese goods, which is the result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Even after "anti - involution", China's price advantage may last for a long time due to the faster price increase in other countries [6]. 3.4 Bond Market Situation - **Market Performance on March 10**: The long - term yield first rose and then fell. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond's second - active bond reached 1.8190% in the early trading, and then the bond market recovered in the afternoon [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: It is predicted that the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5%. The factors considered include economic fundamentals, monetary policy, inflation, capital interest rates, and the real estate market [8].

Market Review - In February 2026, the central bank's liquidity net injection exceeded 800 billion yuan, with a significant increase in reverse repos [6][8] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in February was 2.5 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous year, with government bonds showing a slight increase [8][9] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1.78%, indicating a strong oscillation pattern in the bond market [16][38] Fundamental Outlook - High-frequency data suggests that exports are expected to remain strong in January-February, while inflation may continue to rise [21][29] - The manufacturing PMI data in February showed a decline, primarily due to the Spring Festival, but retail sales during the holiday increased by 13.7% compared to the previous year [26][29] - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with a significant drop in transaction volumes in major cities [24][29] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a focus on ensuring necessary expenditure and promoting domestic demand as a primary task [30][32] - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing," with a focus on fiscal and monetary coordination and the use of structural tools [36][37] - The government plans to reduce the net financing scale of government bonds in March, indicating manageable supply pressure [30][32] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face pressure from export and inflation data, but the government bond supply is not a major concern [38] - The market is likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation pattern, with opportunities in short-term bonds and long-term bonds [39]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the bond custody amount at the Shanghai Clearing House, with a total of 49.71 trillion yuan at the end of January, down from 49.88 trillion yuan, reflecting a net decrease of 176.29 billion yuan [5][7][8] - The total bond custody amount at both the Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased to 179.31 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 757.62 billion yuan [7][8] - The report indicates that the overall leverage ratio in the bond market remained stable at 107.14% in January, with commercial banks being the main contributors to bond purchases [11][12] Total Research - The Shanghai Clearing House's bond custody amount decreased by 176.29 billion yuan, while CCDC's increased by 933.91 billion yuan, leading to a combined net increase of 757.62 billion yuan [7][8] - The main contributors to the net increase in bond custody were interest rate bonds, which saw a significant rise, while interbank certificates of deposit experienced a notable decrease [9] - Commercial banks were identified as the primary buyers of bonds, with a net increase of 10.22 trillion yuan in bond custody, while other financial institutions showed negative net increases [10] Market Outlook - The report suggests a target range for the 10-year government bond yield of 2-3%, with a central tendency around 2.5% [12][13] - Economic recovery is not meeting expectations, and there may be a shift towards looser monetary and fiscal policies in early 2026, which could accelerate the economic cycle [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), to gauge potential tightening of monetary policy [13]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing scale reached 72,200 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 68,032 billion yuan, and increased by 1,654 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - New loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion yuan, close to the expected 47,255 billion yuan, but decreased by 4,200 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - M1 and M2 grew by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year, respectively, showing an increase from December's growth rates of 3.8% and 8.5%[6] Group 2: Contributions to Social Financing - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds, with new government bonds, discounted bills, and corporate bonds contributing 9,764 billion, 6,293 billion, and 5,033 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2,831 billion, 1,639 billion, and 579 billion yuan[2] - The new loans in the real economy were 49,000 billion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease of 3,194 billion yuan, indicating a restrained demand for loans[2] Group 3: Loan Performance and Trends - January's new loan performance was below expectations, with banks focusing on balanced lending, contrasting with historical trends where January typically sees significant loan increases[3] - Short-term loans outperformed medium and long-term loans, with new short-term loans at 20,500 billion yuan (up 3,100 billion year-on-year) and medium/long-term loans at 31,800 billion yuan (down 2,800 billion year-on-year)[4] Group 4: Deposit Trends - New deposits in January reached a record high of 80,900 billion yuan, with new resident and corporate deposits at 47,400 billion and 15,500 billion yuan respectively[5] - There are concerns about potential "deposit migration" to non-bank institutions, but evidence suggests that funds are ultimately returning to banks[5]

Financial Data Overview - In January, China's new social financing (社融) reached 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 6.51 trillion yuan[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 4.50 trillion yuan[2] - M2 money supply grew by 9.0% year-on-year, above the expected 8.4%[2] Market Trends and Analysis - The total social financing in January showed a strong performance, with a month-on-month increase of 5.01 trillion yuan, marking a historical high[5] - Year-on-year growth rate of social financing slightly declined to 8.2% due to a high base effect from the previous year[5] - New loans to residents turned positive, increasing by 127 billion yuan, ending a six-month trend of year-on-year declines, indicating a marginal recovery in residents' willingness to leverage[5] Credit Structure Insights - Total credit continued to show a year-on-year decrease, but the structure improved, with a notable reduction in corporate bill financing[5] - New corporate loans totaled 4.45 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 billion yuan, while short-term loans increased by 310 billion yuan[12] - New resident loans amounted to 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term loans showing significant improvement, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[15] Deposit and Monetary Supply Dynamics - Total deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion yuan, contributing to a rise in M2 growth[25] - M1 growth rate rebounded to 4.9%, indicating an acceleration in actual money circulation, corroborating the improvement in resident financing[26] - The M2-M1 growth differential narrowed to 4.1%, while the social financing-M2 differential expanded to -0.8%[26]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, China's new social financing (社融) reached 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the expected 6.51 trillion yuan[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 4.50 trillion yuan[2] - M2 money supply grew by 9.0% year-on-year, above the expected 8.4%[2] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - The total social financing increased by 5.01 trillion yuan month-on-month, marking a historical high for January[5] - Year-on-year growth of social financing slowed to 8.2%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[5] - New loans to residents turned positive with an increase of 127 billion yuan, ending a six-month trend of year-on-year declines[5] Group 3: Structural Changes in Financing - Corporate bill financing saw a significant year-on-year decrease, while short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed structural improvement[5] - New government bond financing reached 976.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 283.1 billion yuan, ending a five-month decline[20] - Direct financing for enterprises increased by 532.4 billion yuan year-on-year, with credit bonds contributing 503.3 billion yuan[20] Group 4: Deposit and Money Supply Insights - Total deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion yuan[25] - M1 growth rate rebounded to 4.9%, indicating an acceleration in actual money circulation[26] - The M2-M1 growth rate differential narrowed by 0.6 percentage points to 4.1%[26]