Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report In the third week of November, the scope of construction shutdown in the north accelerated its expansion, showing the characteristics of weak supply and demand for investment products. Both new and second - hand housing transactions followed seasonal trends, with the former showing a slight stabilization. In terms of inflation, food prices changed from rising to falling, and the drag from pork and vegetable prices increased. In the export sector, container shipping prices continued to diverge, with SCFI weakening and CCFI remaining strong. Port transportation volume weakened compared to the previous week, indicating the impact of the off - season. In the investment field, the decline in cement prices continued to widen. The apparent demand for rebar improved and inventory clearance accelerated, mainly due to supply contraction. In the real estate sector, new housing sales recovered seasonally, while second - hand housing sales continued to weaken, and both showed year - on - year negative growth. For the bond market, the impact of fundamental factors on the bond market further weakened under the influence of the off - season. Policy expectations for the current year were not strong, and the market focused on the possibility of "front - loaded efforts" in the next year. [3][33] Summary by Directory Weekly High - Frequency Tracking: Export Cargo Volume Maintains Resilience Inflation - Related: Food Prices Decline Food prices decreased slightly. From November 15th to 22nd, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and vegetable prices decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, both weaker than the previous week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.09% and 0.08% week - on - week respectively, changing from rising to falling. [8] Import and Export - Related: Container Shipping Prices Diverge, SCFI Continues to Weaken The decline of SCFI widened, while CCFI continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 2.6% week - on - week, and SCFI decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The container transportation market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the ocean - going routes showed an adjustment trend. In the North American routes, the growth of transportation demand was weak, and freight rates continued to decline. From November 10th to 16th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 5.4% and 1.1% week - on - week respectively. This week, they increased by 3.1% and 0.4% year - on - year respectively, continuing to weaken compared to the previous week under the influence of the off - season. The increases of BDI and CDFI indexes further expanded. [11] Industry - Related: Most Production Operating Rates Continue to Decline - Coal price increase significantly narrowed. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.26% week - on - week, with a significant narrowing of the increase. - Rebar price increase widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.2% week - on - week. - Asphalt operating rate accelerated its decline. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. - Copper price changed from rising to falling. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Copper and LME Copper both decreased by about 0.9% week - on - week. - The decline of glass futures prices widened. This week, the market trading sentiment was cold, and most manufacturers continued to sell at reduced prices. [13][15][20] Investment - Related: New Housing Sales Slightly Stabilize, Second - Hand Housing Sales Weaken - Cement price decline slightly widened. This week, the weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week. - New housing sales seasonally stabilized. From November 14th to 20th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.936 million square meters, a 22.5% week - on - week increase and a 23% year - on - year decrease. - Second - hand housing sales slightly declined. From last Friday to this Thursday, second - hand housing sales decreased by 3.8% week - on - week and 7.6% year - on - year. [25][27] Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales in Mid - and Early November Continue to Decline - Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early November showed a year - on - year negative growth. From November 1st to 16th, the national retail sales of the passenger car market were 886,000 vehicles, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last November and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last month. - Crude oil price changed from rising to falling. As of November 21st, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 2.8% and 3.4% week - on - week respectively, weaker than the previous week. [28][32]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend since the "924" policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing the 4000-point mark, reaching a ten-year high [5] - The A500 ETF managed by E Fund has outperformed major indices, with the CSI A500 index rising over 32% since its low in April [5] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with potential new opportunities emerging [5] Group 2 - The "924" policy, which included wide credit measures for small and medium enterprises, has broken the negative spiral in market expectations, initiating the current rally [6] - Historical trends indicate that each cycle of wide credit and monetary policy is typically accompanied by sustained stock market growth, with the current fiscal policies increasing the likelihood of economic recovery [6] - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to shift the economy from a deflationary to an inflationary cycle, which is crucial for the A-share market's narrative in the latter half of the year [6] Group 3 - The market is currently in the "economic verification" phase, with previous high-performing sectors facing adjustments, and a potential shift towards undervalued assets with expected performance improvements [9] - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased significantly, from 1.8 trillion yuan to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan since June, indicating strong inflows of leveraged funds [7][9] - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index being at a ten-year high, overall valuation levels remain moderate, with the price-to-earnings ratios of major indices at their historical median [10] Group 4 - The A-share market is entering a new phase characterized by resource stocks, particularly copper and aluminum, as key drivers of the current market trend [17] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, leading to a significant rally in global copper mining stocks, with major Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing substantial gains [18] - The aluminum sector is expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance starting in 2026, which could lead to rising aluminum prices and stable returns for aluminum companies [19] Group 5 - Oil and chemical sectors are also gaining attention, with leading companies in these industries beginning to recover in valuation despite ongoing challenges in the commodities market [19] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is positioned to benefit significantly due to its low production costs and focus on offshore exploration, making it one of the most profitable among the state-owned oil companies [20] - The overall dividend yield for major oil companies in China is competitive, with CNOOC, China Petroleum, and Sinopec offering attractive returns to investors [20]

分析人士认为，展望2026年，在信用风险未明显抬升的背景下，信用利差预计维持较低水平，增量事件 带来的利差走阔将创造配置时点。 新华财经上海11月19日电 今年以来，债市信用利差总体处于低位，波段震荡特征明显。 信用利差低位震荡 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至11月18日收盘，银行间信用债市场收益率小幅波 动。举例来看，中债中短期票据收益率曲线（AAA）3M期限上探1BP至1.61%，3年期收益率下行1BP 至1.86%，5年期收益率稳定在1.99%附近；中债中短期票据收益率曲线（A）1年期回落1BP至6.90%。 值得一提的是，"信用债通常很难脱离利率债形成独立走势，因此，信用债的择时与波段操作本质上仍 是延续利率择时的框架。"曾羽表示，"在当前的市场环境中，基于增量事件的择时应为操作核心。从大 趋势上看，货币政策保持适度宽松，社会融资规模增长依赖政府债供给，信用市场资金供给多而债券供 给少的核心逻辑并未转变。也就是说，市场持续缓慢走强的格局在未来一段时间内难以转变。此间，增 量突发事件带来的信心变化和短期回撤将拉扯出估值空间，构成信用债配置和波段交易的时机窗口。 即，各机构需关注增量事件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views In the second week of November, as the temperature dropped in the north, the scope of construction stoppages gradually expanded, leading to a slight weakening in the demand for cement and rebar. New home sales remained seasonally low year-on-year. In terms of inflation, the increase in food prices narrowed, and pork prices turned from rising to falling. In exports, the SCFI index weakened while the CCFI continued to rise, and the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of port transportation volume both narrowed. The dry bulk index was boosted by the increased winter coal storage purchases. In investment, with the expansion of construction stoppages in the north, cement prices declined, and the apparent demand for rebar and asphalt shipments weakened month-on-month, being lower than the seasonal average year-on-year, indicating the gradual emergence of the off-season effect. In the real estate sector, both new and second-hand home sales improved month-on-month. New home sales maintained a relatively low year-on-year negative growth, while the year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales narrowed and was better than the same period in 2023. For the bond market, the traditional off-season effect in November accelerated, and there was no "broad credit" inflection point in terms of physical work volume. The economic data for October verified that domestic demand needed further stimulation, and the "broad credit" impact of policy tools was temporarily limited. Seasonal factors and the pace of tool deployment might constrain the release of tool effects. The State Council executive meeting on November 14 emphasized the need to reasonably arrange project construction and fund allocation, actively leverage long-term loans and policy-based finance, and guide more private capital to participate, which might be a requirement for the "broad credit" effect of the tools. Attention should be paid to the verification of loan data from November to December [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation-related: Food prices continued to rise slightly - Food price increases continued to narrow. From November 10 - 14, the average national wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.19% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase in vegetable prices was 0.54%. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.37% and 0.43% month-on-month respectively, with the increases narrowing [10]. (2) Import and export-related: The export container shipping index generally continued to rise - The CCFI continued to rise, while the SCFI weakened. This week, the CCFI index increased by 3.4% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.9% month-on-month. The export container shipping market was generally stable this week, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping routes continued to diverge, with a slight decline in the SCFI. Among them, the transportation demand in the North American routes lacked support, and the spot booking prices weakened. The shipping rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East Coasts of the United States decreased by 17.6% and 8.7% respectively compared to last week [12]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 3 - 9, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 1.4% and decreased by 4.3% month-on-month respectively. This week, the year-on-year increases were 6.5% and 4.2% respectively, with the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates significantly narrowing compared to last week [12]. - The increases in the BDI and CDFI indexes expanded. This week, the BDI and CDFI indexes increased by 3.2% and 1.2% month-on-month respectively, with the increases expanding compared to the previous week. Among them, the iron ore import transportation market was sluggish, and the freight rates in the Capesize vessel market weakened. With the increase in winter coal storage purchases, the freight rates in the Panamax and Supramax vessel markets rose [12]. (3) Industry-related: The month-on-month changes in the operating rates were mixed - The increase in coal prices continued to expand. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 4.2% month-on-month, with the increase continuing to be higher than that of the previous week. In terms of demand, the daily coal consumption of power plants remained at an off-season level, and the pressure to replenish inventory was relatively small. The market mainly purchased imported coal and only maintained necessary purchases for high-priced coal. This week, the daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces' power plants was 1.803 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of price, the supply in the production areas continued to tighten. Some coal mines completed their annual production tasks ahead of schedule, and with overproduction control and environmental inspections, the production capacity release was limited, leading to continuous increases in coal prices [15][17]. - The price of rebar turned from falling to stable, and the apparent demand weakened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, turning from falling to rising. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of rebar decreased by 2.34% month-on-month this week, accelerating compared to the previous week, but the inventory was still at a high level year-on-year, with a large pressure to reduce inventory. As the demand for steel was in the off-season, downstream buyers maintained a just-in-time purchasing rhythm this week, and the apparent demand weakened slightly [17]. - The operating rate of asphalt declined marginally. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month to 29.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. As the temperature continued to drop in the northern regions, infrastructure projects were gradually winding down, and the rigid demand significantly contracted. Although there was still some construction support in the southern regions, the overall project increment was limited, and the market demand generally remained weak [17]. - The price of copper turned from falling to rising. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non-ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.9% and 1.2% month-on-month respectively. Overseas, the disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts cooled the expectations of monetary easing, but the global supply shortage situation persisted, still supporting the copper price [20]. - The glass futures continued to weaken. This week, the market was dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment. Many manufacturers continued to lower prices to sell goods, the market transaction prices declined, and the production and sales decreased compared to the previous period. Fundamentally, the supply exceeded the demand, and there was still pressure to sell in many areas. This week, the market inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, and the glass price might still have room for further decline in the short term [20]. (4) Investment-related: Real estate sales improved month-on-month but remained low year-on-year - The cement price turned down month-on-month. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.23% month-on-month. Recently, the demand in the concrete market was poor. As the market entered the traditional off-season, the temperature dropped in the north, and most projects in the Northeast and Northwest entered the construction stoppage stage, leading to an overall contraction in demand. In the North China region, project funds were tight, and the shipping rate remained low. The East China market was significantly differentiated, with insufficient demand support in major areas and weak price increases [24]. - New home sales turned from falling to rising month-on-month. From November 7 - 13, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.581 million square meters, an increase of 0.7% month-on-month and a decrease of 31% year-on-year. The sales were marginally stable but still at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [26]. - Second-hand home sales improved month-on-month, and the year-on-year negative growth narrowed. From last Friday to this Thursday, second-hand home sales increased by 5.5% month-on-month and decreased by 14.4% year-on-year. The sales improved marginally, and the transaction volume was between the same period in 2023 and 2024, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [26]. (5) Consumption: The sales of passenger cars turned negative in the first week of November - The sales momentum of new cars weakened marginally at the beginning of the month. According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 9, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 4.15 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% compared to the same period in November last year and a 4% decrease compared to the same period last month. The high base formed by the continuous sales growth in the market in November last year affected this year's readings, but the sales still maintained a growth of about 7% compared to the same period in 2023 [29]. - The weekly average price of crude oil increased month-on-month. As of November 14, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 1.2% and 0.6% month-on-month respectively, showing a trend of first falling and then rising within the week. In the first half of the week, the OPEC and EIA monthly reports showed relatively high supply pressure, and the increase in Middle Eastern crude oil supply suppressed the oil price. In the second half of the week, the less-than-expected production increase by OPEC and the uncertainty of Russian energy supply were beneficial to the oil price [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the production rush at the end of the third quarter in October, the economy weakened again at the beginning of the quarter. Coupled with the high base in the service industry, the estimated monthly GDP was around 4.5%, a relatively low level since the beginning of the year [10]. - The incremental impact of the "two 50 billion" in October has not yet appeared, including less - than - expected credit and infrastructure investment effects [12]. - The "broad credit" verification from November to December is still an important observation clue for the fundamentals. The effects of this round of policy tools are expected to continue until the first quarter of 2026 [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Broad Credit" Effect May Appear with a Lag - **GDP Estimation**: In October, affected by factors such as the end of the peak season in the service industry, weak exports, and more holidays, the GDP dropped to about 4.5%, a low level since the beginning of the year [10]. - **Influence of "Two 50 Billion"**: In October, the incremental impact of the "two 50 billion" was not evident. The new medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased year - on - year, and infrastructure investment was weaker than the seasonal average, with a lower leveraging effect than in 2022 [12]. - **Reasons**: Policy tools were gradually launched from the end of September to the end of October, and the capital effects may not be fully reflected. There may be an overlap between policy - supported projects and special bond projects, and the project scope has expanded to light - asset industries, resulting in a weaker loan - leveraging effect [17]. - **Outlook**: The "broad credit" verification from November to December is crucial. Considering the high base formed by the strong "good start" this year, macro - policies in 2026 may need to be implemented earlier, and the effects of this round of tools are expected to last until the first quarter of 2026 [17]. 3.2 October Data Interpretation: Mild Slowdown of Economic Momentum at the Beginning of the Quarter 3.2.1 Infrastructure - **Investment Situation**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, and the full - scale infrastructure investment was + 1.5%, showing a further decline. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity was - 8.9%, and the full - scale infrastructure was - 12.1%, accelerating the decline [18]. - **Future Outlook**: Although 50 billion of policy - based financial instruments were fully invested by the end of October, and the new orders and business activity expectations in the construction industry PMI improved, the actual workload may be postponed, and the investment data from November to December need to be verified [18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate - **Investment and Sales**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, and the single - month year - on - year was - 23.0%. The decline in construction narrowed, while the decline in new construction and completion expanded. In October, the year - on - year decline in residential sales area was - 19.6%, and the decline had been expanding for three consecutive months. The month - on - month decline in new and second - hand residential sales prices also expanded [23]. - **Future Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the probability of further adjustment of purchase - restriction policies in first - tier cities and the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year [23]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Investment - **Investment Performance**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was + 2.7%, and the single - month year - on - year was - 6.7%, with the decline expanding by 4.8 percentage points. Except for the automobile manufacturing and equipment transportation manufacturing industries, the single - month year - on - year growth rates of other industries turned negative [27]. - **Reasons and Outlook**: Due to the high base formed by the concentrated implementation of the equipment renewal policy from October to the end of last year and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits and capacity control, manufacturing investment may continue to be in an adjustment period in the short term [27]. 3.2.4 Consumption - **Overall Situation**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was + 2.9%, a slight decline from the previous month. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted growth rate recovered to + 0.16%, a relatively weak seasonal level [31]. - **Sub - items**: In terms of catering, the year - on - year growth rate was + 3.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was + 15.3%, better than the average of the past three years. In terms of commodity retail, the year - on - year growth rate of above - quota commodity retail was + 1.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from September. Most subsidized categories showed a decline, while non - subsidized categories such as gold and silver jewelry performed well. The year - on - year growth rate of online commodity retail slowed down [36]. 3.2.5 Industry - **Production Situation**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial production was + 4.9%, and the month - on - month seasonally adjusted growth rate was + 0.17%, a seasonal decline and a relatively weak level since 2019. The decline in exports and the season - beginning effect dragged down manufacturing production [38]. - **Future Outlook**: In November, with the disappearance of holiday disturbances and the release of policy funds, industrial production may experience seasonal recovery [41].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments on the Chinese economy, highlighting a gentle push towards economic recovery and stability [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Recovery Signals - The central bank's recent actions, including a net injection of 130 billion yuan, have positively influenced market sentiment, akin to a gentle hand supporting the economy [4]. - The third-quarter policy report reassures the market with a commitment to moderate easing, projecting a 5.2% growth in the first three quarters and maintaining a full-year target of 5% [5]. - The collaboration of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies is likened to a sturdy oak tree, indicating resilience against external pressures [5]. Group 2: Financing and Investment Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of social financing scale as a more comprehensive indicator than just loans, reflecting the economy's transition and growth potential [5]. - Social financing growth remains steady at over 8%, indicating that the seeds of "broad credit" are beginning to take root [5]. - The article clarifies misconceptions about deposit rates, stating that while some funds may shift to the stock market, overall deposits have not significantly decreased, merely reflecting structural changes [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The central bank aims for a balanced monetary policy, ensuring that funds flow smoothly to the real economy, akin to chocolate flowing to the needed areas [7]. - The article concludes that the central bank's gentle push is guiding the Chinese economy towards a brighter horizon, with ongoing reforms and openness to foster growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy in 2023, with significant growth in financial metrics and a focus on optimizing credit structure to support key sectors and economic transformation [1][2]. Financial Metrics - As of September, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [1]. - The net financing of government bonds in 2024 has reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with expectations to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for the year [1][5]. Credit Structure Optimization - The report indicates a continuous improvement in credit structure, with significant year-on-year growth in technology loans (11.8%), green loans (22.9%), inclusive loans (11.2%), elderly care industry loans (58.2%), and digital economy loans (12.9%), all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [1]. - The trend of "wide credit" is becoming evident, with social financing growth maintaining above 8%, reflecting the shift towards direct financing methods such as corporate bond issuance [2]. Economic Transition - The transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development necessitates a focus on the quality of credit rather than merely increasing loan volumes, as emphasized by the central bank [3]. - The current RMB loan balance stands at 270 trillion yuan, with total social financing stock at 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy matures [3]. Policy Coordination - The effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies has been highlighted, with measures taken to stabilize the financial environment and support government bond issuance [5]. - The collaboration between fiscal departments and the central bank has led to the issuance of special government bonds to enhance bank capital, thereby improving the banks' ability to support the real economy [5]. Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC's structural monetary policy tools have a balance nearing 4 trillion yuan, aimed at incentivizing financial institutions to support national strategies and key economic sectors [8]. - The growth rate of loans in sectors such as elderly care and technology has significantly outpaced overall loan growth, indicating a targeted approach to financing [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined five key monetary policy strategies for the next phase, emphasizing reasonable growth of financial totals, effective monetary credit policy guidance, balance of internal and external equilibrium in interest and exchange rates, acceleration of financial market institutional construction and high-level opening-up, and proactive risk prevention and resolution [3][6]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions [3][6]. - The report highlights the importance of balancing short-term and long-term goals, growth support and risk prevention, and the health of the banking system while supporting the real economy [6][7]. Economic Growth Outlook - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating resilience and vitality in economic operations, with a target of around 5% growth for the year likely to be achieved [5][7]. - The collaboration of macro policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, is crucial for supporting growth and structural adjustments, creating a synergistic effect [7]. Financial Total Growth - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of social financing scale as a key reference for measuring economic and financial interaction, with the current RMB loan balance reaching 270 trillion yuan and social financing scale stock at 437 trillion yuan [9][10]. - The report indicates that as direct financing develops, companies are increasingly opting for bond financing over loans, reflecting a shift in financing structure [9][10]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - As of September 2025, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting the "five major articles" has approached 4 trillion yuan, with loan growth in these areas exceeding 10% [12][13]. - The PBOC has increased financial support for sectors such as small and micro enterprises, agriculture, and education, with significant year-on-year growth in relevant loan balances [12][13]. Focus on Innovation and Green Finance - The PBOC plans to optimize monetary policy tools supporting technological innovation and enhance the financial system to align with technological advancements [13]. - There is a commitment to developing green finance products and establishing carbon accounting rules for financial institutions involved in carbon market construction [13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, resulting in a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2023, with expectations to meet the annual growth target of around 5% [1][12]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has utilized various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and has improved the monetary policy framework to enhance execution and transmission [2][8]. - As of September, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [2][12]. - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Structural Support and Financing - By the end of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting key areas of the economy approached 4 trillion yuan, indicating a focus on guiding financial institutions to support major national strategies and weak sectors [3][10]. - The financing structure is improving, with significant year-on-year growth in technology loans (11.8%), green loans (22.9%), inclusive loans (11.2%), elderly care loans (58.2%), and digital economy loans (12.9%), all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [2][3]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies has strengthened, with the PBOC emphasizing the need to flexibly manage open market operations to smooth out short-term fluctuations from fiscal tax revenues and government bond issuances [8][10]. - The issuance of special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan has been aimed at enhancing the capital of state-owned commercial banks, thereby improving their capacity to support the real economy and mitigate financial risks [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Challenges - Despite the positive growth indicators, the PBOC acknowledges ongoing risks and challenges, including external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, necessitating a balanced approach in future policy implementation [12][12]. - The PBOC plans to deepen financial reforms and enhance the monetary policy framework to ensure effective transmission mechanisms while balancing short-term and long-term economic goals [12][12].

拓展丰富中央银行宏观审慎与金融稳定功能 11月11日，中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度货币政策执行报告，明确了下一阶段货币政策五大核心思 路：保持金融总量合理增长，充分发挥货币信贷政策导向作用，把握好利率、汇率内外均衡，加快金融 市场制度建设和高水平对外开放，以及积极稳妥防范化解金融风险。 三季度货币政策执行报告分析了当前国内外的形势，对下阶段货币政策思路进行了阐述。 在货币政策方面，报告明确，平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支持实体经 济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，强化宏观政策取向一致性，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，提升宏观 经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 业内专家指出，对于未来政策把握，央行依然强调了上述四方面关系的平衡，同时，考虑到外部不稳定 不确定性因素较多、内需不足，下一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，要抓好政策落实，充分释放政策效 应。 市场人士表示，在财政、货币、产业等宏观政策协同配合发力下，全年5%左右的经济增长目标有望顺 利完成。 宏观政策之间的协同配合十分重要。专家表示，这可以产生"1+1〉2"的效果，共同支持稳增长、调结 构。央行三季度货币政策执行报告强调 ...