2026 年 02 月 26 日 开源晨会 0226 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.155 | | 银行 | -0.456 | | 汽车 | 0.056 | | 家用电器 | 0.130 | | 石油石化 | 0.190 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 4.694 | | 有色金属 | 3.478 | | 建筑材料 | 2.749 | | 房地产 | 2.533 | | 基础化工 | 2.162 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【固定收益】上清所托管量环比减少，债市整体杠杆率持平——2026 年 1 月债市 托管数据点评-20260225 事件：1 月末，上清所债 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing scale reached 72,200 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 68,032 billion yuan, and increased by 1,654 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - New loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion yuan, close to the expected 47,255 billion yuan, but decreased by 4,200 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - M1 and M2 grew by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year, respectively, showing an increase from December's growth rates of 3.8% and 8.5%[6] Group 2: Contributions to Social Financing - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds, with new government bonds, discounted bills, and corporate bonds contributing 9,764 billion, 6,293 billion, and 5,033 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2,831 billion, 1,639 billion, and 579 billion yuan[2] - The new loans in the real economy were 49,000 billion yuan, which was a year-on-year decrease of 3,194 billion yuan, indicating a restrained demand for loans[2] Group 3: Loan Performance and Trends - January's new loan performance was below expectations, with banks focusing on balanced lending, contrasting with historical trends where January typically sees significant loan increases[3] - Short-term loans outperformed medium and long-term loans, with new short-term loans at 20,500 billion yuan (up 3,100 billion year-on-year) and medium/long-term loans at 31,800 billion yuan (down 2,800 billion year-on-year)[4] Group 4: Deposit Trends - New deposits in January reached a record high of 80,900 billion yuan, with new resident and corporate deposits at 47,400 billion and 15,500 billion yuan respectively[5] - There are concerns about potential "deposit migration" to non-bank institutions, but evidence suggests that funds are ultimately returning to banks[5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 1 月金融数据解读 居民信贷"破冰" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 1 月我国新增社融 7.22 万亿元（预期 6.51 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元（预期 4.50 万亿元）， M2 同比增长 9.0%（预期 8.4%）。 评论： 证券研究报告 值得关注的是，今年 1 月社融结构与去年同期高度相似，均为总量强劲、票据压降、直接融资活跃的组合。 而去年在超预期的"开门红"之后，后续月份持续走弱，反映出 1 月数据易受银行开门红冲量、政策靠前 发力等非内生因素扰动。因此，尽管当前数据释放积极信号，但单月表现尚不足以确认趋势性拐点，后续 仍需观察 2—3 月数据的可持续性。 展望后续，1 月金融 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月13日 1 月金融数据解读 居民信贷"破冰" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | 事项： 1 月我国新增社融 7.22 万亿元（预期 6.51 万亿元），新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿元（预期 4.50 万亿元）， M2 同比增长 9.0%（预期 8.4%）。 评论： 图1：金融数据分项一览 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 结论：1 月金融数据呈现总量强劲、结构分化的特征。新增社融环比多增 5.01 万亿元，高于季节性水平， 绝对金额创历史新高。受去年同期高基数影响，社融同比增速小幅回落至 8.2%。信贷方面，总量同比延 续少增，但结构持续改善。企业端票据融资同比明显多减，短贷与中长贷结构优化；居民端释放积极信号， ...

导语： 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。中国人民银行明确提出，将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活运用降准、降息等多种政策工 具，保持社会融资条件总体宽松，并已率先推出八大政策举措，以精准对接重点领域融资需求。围绕货币政策走向，多位专家就如何延续该 政策取向及其重要意义发表了深刻见解。分析普遍认为，保持适度宽松的货币环境有助于稳定市场信心、支持实体经济持续恢复。 与此同 时，2026年全球主要经济体的货币政策趋势亦成为焦点，各方对其潜在路径及外溢影响进行了前瞻性探讨。 2026如何继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策？ 中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长、中欧国际工商学院教授 盛松成 降准与降息均需稳步推进，但降准优于降息 2026降准优于降息。 在我国当前国情下，降准的适配性和积极效应更为突出。降准能增加商业银行可自主支配的资金，更好地配 合积极的财政政策——在我国宏观调控体系中，财政政策发挥主导作用，货币政策则承担协同配合职能，二者缺一不可。我国大部 分国债和地方政府债由商业银行持有，降准可使商业银行获得充足资金配置政府债券，实现财政政策与货币政策的高效联动。 我国不具备持续大幅降息的基础 ， 核心原因在于我国消 ...

（来源：经济参考报） 随着年初结构性降息"落地"，债市后续如何演绎成为各界关注的焦点。业内人士认为，尽管来自资金面 的支撑尚存，但考虑到股市"春季躁动"、地方债供给压力、基本面边际改善等因素带来的扰动依旧，短 期债市大概率仍将呈现震荡格局。 政策加码添动能 宽松窗口启新篇 1月19日，央行下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点，打响了年内货币政策宽松"第一枪"。 本次结构性降息与全面降息存在本质差异，并非通过下调政策利率带动LPR下行，而是聚焦重点领域精 准发力，下调后3个月、6个月和1年期支农支小再贷款利率分别降至0.95%、1.15%和1.25%，再贴现利 率降至1.5%，核心是降低银行从央行获取资金的成本，引导金融资源向小微企业、科技创新、绿色转 型等领域倾斜。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼指出，此次结构性"降息"不仅强化了对商业银行 的政策激励，更传递出明确信号，能吸引更多社会资本进入重点行业和产业。这是精准"滴灌"支持实体 经济、降低融资成本的关键一步。 对于债市而言，本次政策属于本轮降息周期中的补降环节，奠定了债市短期博弈的基础环境。 "结构性工具降息面临的掣肘更少，既能保护银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. Economic recovery is accelerating, inflation is rising, and the bond market's overall leverage ratio has increased. The report also analyzes the changes in bond custody volume and the behavior of different institutions in the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation - In December, the total bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) was 178.55 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 302.571 billion yuan, showing a decline in the incremental increase compared to the previous month. The custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House decreased by 204.504 billion yuan, while that of CCDC increased by 507.075 billion yuan, both with a slowdown in the incremental increase [2][3]. Bond Types - Interest - bearing bonds contributed the main increment in December. The custody volume of interest - bearing bonds was 123.15 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 695.865 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.88 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 154.092 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.69 trillion yuan, with a net monthly decrease of 622.378 billion yuan [4]. Institutions - Commercial banks were the main purchasers of bonds. Their custody volume was 94.40 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 256.262 billion yuan. Securities, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions all had a net decrease in custody volume [5]. Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market rose to 107.14% in December. The leverage ratios of commercial banks and non - bank institutions increased, while that of securities firms decreased [6].

| | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月9日 | 1月16日 | 变动BP | | o | 1.117 | 1.09 | -2.7 | | 0.08 | 1.27 | 1. 2556 | -1.44 | | 0. 17 | 1.27 | 1.2833 | 1.33 | | 0. 25 | 1.2767 | 1.2874 | 1.07 | | 0.5 | 1.3199 | 1.2981 | -2.18 | | 0. 75 | 1. 2704 | 1.225 | -4.54 | | 1 | 1.2887 | 1.2424 | -4.63 | | 2 | 1.4362 | 1. 4043 | -3.19 | | 3 | 1.4606 | 1.4286 | -3.2 | | 5 | 1.6551 | 1.6099 | -4.52 | | 7 | 1.7593 | 1. 7158 | -4. 35 | | 10 | 1.8782 | 1. 8424 | -3.58 | | 1 5 | 2.1735 | 2. 1563 | -1.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank announced two policy measures: reducing the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and improving and increasing support for structural tools. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The target range for the 10-year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [6]. - The economic recovery falling short of expectations has been disproven. At the beginning of 2026, there may be loose credit and fiscal policies, accelerating the cyclical recovery [6]. - If there are loose monetary policies (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases), it will be a chance to reduce allocation, similar to 2025 [6]. - Inflation is rising, and attention should be paid to whether the month-on-month increase in PPI can remain positive [6]. - If the month-on-month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and the yields of short-term bonds will also start to rise [6]. - Real estate is not used as a means to stabilize growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 12 - Month Financial Data Focus - **Social Financing**: In December, the new social financing was 2.21 trillion yuan, 64.62 billion yuan less than the same period last year, slightly exceeding the average of the same period from 2021 - 2024. The high base caused by the issuance of 2 trillion replacement government bonds at the end of 2024 and the front - heavy and back - light issuance rhythm of government bonds in 2025 led to a year - on - year decrease of 1.07 trillion yuan in government bond net financing in December, dragging down the year - on - year growth of social financing. However, driven by the implementation of policy - based financial instruments and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity, the net financing of corporate bonds and trust loans continued to increase. In December, entrusted loans, trust loans, and corporate bond net financing increased by 3.28 billion yuan, 5.28 billion yuan, and 17 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period in 2024 [4]. - **New Loans**: In December, new corporate and household loans showed a differentiated trend. Household new loans were 44.16 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with both short - term and medium - to - long - term loans decreasing year - on - year, indicating weak household demand and a more cautious consumption attitude. The decrease in medium - to - long - term loans may be related to the continued slump in the real estate market. Corporate new loans were 58 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with both short - term and medium - to - long - term loans increasing year - on - year. The issuance of new policy - based financial instruments has supported corporate loans. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, with the production index at 51.7% and the new order index above the boom - bust line, reflecting strong production and demand and active business operations, driving the year - on - year increase in corporate loans [5]. - **Money Supply**: In December, M1 increased by 3.8% year - on - year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous value; M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The continuous decline of M1 year - on - year since September is mainly due to the base effect. In December, non - bank deposits decreased by 2.84 trillion yuan less than the same period last year, which may have driven the year - on - year growth of M2 [5]. Policy Measures - On January 15th, at the press conference, the central bank announced two policy measures: (1) reducing the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points; (2) improving and increasing support for structural tools, such as increasing the quota of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation and expanding the scope of support, increasing the quota of re - loans for agriculture and small businesses, and setting up a special re - loan for private enterprises in the total quota. It also mentioned that it will flexibly conduct Treasury bond trading operations in the next step and pointed out that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [6]. Bond Market Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: The economic recovery falling short of expectations has been disproven. At the beginning of 2026, there may be loose credit and fiscal policies, accelerating the cyclical recovery [6]. - **Monetary Policy**: If there are loose monetary policies (such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, bond purchases), it will be a chance to reduce allocation, similar to 2025 [6]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is rising, and attention should be paid to whether the month - on - month increase in PPI can remain positive [6]. - **Funds Rate**: If the month - on - month inflation continues to rise, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and the yields of short - term bonds will also start to rise [6]. - **Real Estate**: Real estate is not used as a means to stabilize growth this time. Similar to the situation in the United States after 2008, real estate is a lagging indicator and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6]. - **Bonds**: The target range for the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank indicates there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The pre - released policies are mainly "broad - credit" in effect, and the exchange rate does not strongly constrain interest rate cuts. The large - scale maturity and repricing of long - term deposits in 2026 will help stabilize the net interest margin [3] - Deposit repricing supports the space for interest rate cuts, but the bond market also needs to pay attention to the diversion effect of the stock market on matured deposits. The proportion of non - bank deposits may reach a new high, which is related to the form and rhythm of the stock market [3] - The year - on - year increase in the US core CPI in December last year was the same as the previous month. The risk of re - inflation is temporarily limited, and the impact of the US tax - cut policy on inflation remains to be observed [3] - Powell is facing a criminal investigation. The decision of the grand jury may be the key variable affecting the uncertainty of the Fed's subsequent decision - making process and the volatility of US Treasury bonds [3] - Geopolitical risks have caused oil price fluctuations. There are also changes in the prices and indicators of various domestic products such as agricultural products, industrial products, and metals [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Scan - The repricing of time deposits supports the space for interest rate cuts. In 2025, with a 10BP cut in the LPR, the bank's net interest margin remained stable, and this effect should be further enhanced in 2026. However, the bond market needs to pay attention to the impact of the stock market on the diversion of matured deposits [3] - The year - on - year increase in the US core CPI in December last year was flat compared to the previous month. The risk of re - inflation is temporarily limited, and the impact of the US tax - cut policy on inflation remains to be seen. Powell's criminal investigation may affect the volatility of US Treasury bonds [3] - In the week of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.45% week - on - week and decreased by 20.75% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables decreased by 1.44% week - on - week and increased by 6.49% year - on - year. There were also changes in the prices and indicators of other products such as cement, iron ore, and crude oil [3] 3.2 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents data on the growth rate of time and other deposits, the relationship between LPR and bank net interest margin, and the proportion of non - bank deposits, as well as data on the ratio of US currency in circulation to GDP and personal consumption, and the relationship between US non - farm weekly wages and core CPI [11][16] - It also shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in various high - frequency indicators, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping [21][22] 3.3 Comparison of High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - The report provides multiple sets of charts to show the relationship between high - frequency indicators such as copper spot price, crude steel daily output, and various price indices, and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and fixed - asset investment [24][29][32] 3.4 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - It includes charts showing the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, the number of first - time unemployment claims and the unemployment rate, US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank in the derivatives market [94][102][105] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increases) of high - frequency indicators such as the commodity trading area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, LME copper spot settlement price, and crude steel daily output [108][110][114] 3.6 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [157][162]