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南财快评|高市早苗会给日本经济带来什么
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-09 09:29
Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanna Takai as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan marks a significant political shift, but she faces substantial economic and geopolitical challenges ahead [1][4]. Economic Challenges - Japan is grappling with high inflation, stagnant wages, weak growth, and a government debt ratio to GDP of 240% [3]. - Takai's proposed policies include active fiscal measures, such as reducing gasoline taxes and supporting wage increases for employees in struggling companies [1][3]. - The current economic environment differs from when Abenomics was introduced, as Japan now faces over 2% inflation and declining purchasing power [2][3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Takai advocates for a combination of active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, similar to Abenomics, but acknowledges the limitations of direct subsidies due to fiscal discipline [2][3]. - She has suggested tax relief for companies that increase wages, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, but there are concerns about the effectiveness of such measures [3]. - The concept of "net debt balance" is introduced to assess fiscal health, which stands at 136% as of 2023, but this may not reflect the underlying fiscal challenges [3]. Geopolitical Considerations - Takai's leadership is expected to emphasize Japan's national interests and strengthen cooperation with the U.S. and South Korea in critical supply chains [4]. - Concerns exist regarding her right-wing stance and its potential impact on international relations, although historical precedents suggest that political leaders often moderate their positions once in power [4]. Public Perception and Image - The election of a female president is seen as a move to refresh the LDP's image and attract new supporters, with Takai's appearance symbolizing a change in the party's landscape [5]. - The immediate focus for the public will be on how effectively she addresses Japan's economic challenges [5].