Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The market sentiment of thermal coal is weakening, and the short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range. The downstream daily consumption has recovered slowly after the festival, the port market trading atmosphere has been long - term sluggish, some traders are actively reporting goods to realize rising profits, and the transaction price is weakening. The upstream resumption of production is accelerating, the coal mine price is falling, the cost - side support for the price is weakening, and the port inventory is accumulating, which causes concerns about the loose supply in the off - season [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: The prices of coal in different regions and with different calorific values are provided. For example, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 613 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 745 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 64 yuan/ton. The overseas prices of Indonesian FOB Q3800 and Australian FOB Q5500 are 60.5 dollars/ton and 86.6 dollars/ton respectively [1]. - **February Long - term Agreement Prices**: The long - term agreement prices of different regions for Q5500 coal are given. For example, the port Q5500 long - term agreement price is 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 11 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Market Sentiment and Supply - Demand Situation**: On March 5, the thermal coal market sentiment weakened. The downstream daily consumption recovered slowly after the festival, the port market trading atmosphere was long - term sluggish, and the transaction price was weakening. The upstream resumption of production accelerated, the coal mine price fell, the cost - side support for the price weakened, and the port inventory accumulated, which caused concerns about the loose supply in the off - season [2]. - **Indonesian Coal Policy**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 247.9 million tons, slightly lower than the actual supply in 2025. The preliminary coal production target for 2026 is 733 million tons, which will be adjusted according to the production reduction situation [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at the northern port) is - 1 [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the coal market is experiencing a stalemate ahead of the Spring Festival, with the price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region declining by 3 yuan per ton to 682 yuan per ton during the reporting period from January 28 to February 3, 2026 [1] - Supply from major coal-producing areas is tightening as some private coal mines have started their holiday early, while state-owned mines maintain stable production to ensure supply, leading to a reduction in overall output [1] - The inventory at Bohai Rim ports is lower than the same period last year, and the supply of high-quality coal is limited, compounded by the Indonesian government's reduction of coal production quotas, which supports domestic coal costs [1] Group 2 - Demand for coal has weakened as the cold wave subsides and the Spring Festival approaches, with some industrial enterprises in the south shutting down early, resulting in a decrease in daily coal consumption at power plants [1] - The available days of coal supply remain at a safe level of around 15 days, with purchasing primarily focused on long-term contracts, leading to a scarcity of inquiries for market coal [1] - The non-electricity sector is also entering the holiday period, further reducing demand support, with only a few terminals with low inventory engaging in small-scale pre-holiday replenishment [1] Group 3 - Overall, the thermal coal market is expected to remain stable with limited price fluctuations, with attention on the post-holiday resumption of coal mines, industrial recovery progress, and temperature changes [2] - A potential rebound in prices may occur if there are delays in post-holiday resumption or if a strong cold wave hits [2]