新华财经太原10月22日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网22日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于684元／ 吨，环比上行4元／吨，已连续4周上涨。分析认为，虽然南方高温消退，市场情绪略显转稳，但受冬储 需求增强预期、发运成本居高不下等因素影响，现货煤价继续偏强运行，环渤海动力煤综合平均价格延 续上涨态势。 随着煤价持续上涨，下游对价格接受度有所下降，市场交投活跃度略显平缓，部分贸易商止盈出货增 加，但在诸多利好因素支撑下，周期内市场暂无低价出货，沿海煤价延续惯性上涨态势。 整体来看，在供应缺量、成本偏高、需求稳定等多重因素影响下，本周期煤价上行态势依旧较猛，后续 随着冬季用煤旺季临近，终端电厂采购或有所增量，但短期来看，下游对价格接受度的下降以及淡旺季 转换阶段需求的阶段性波动，或在一定程度上对煤价上涨空间形成压制。 （文章来源：新华财经） 供应方面，产地降雨影响基本消除，煤矿生产逐步恢复，但主产区安全检查趋严趋紧，部分煤矿被动停 产或减产，区域生产节奏受限。随着产地煤价持续大幅上涨，到港价格普遍倒挂，产地到港口的供应链 条顺畅度欠佳，成本偏高与结构性供应偏紧，成为沿海煤价的重要支撑因素。 需求方面，南方高温天气结束 ...

新华财经太原10月16日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网15日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于680元／ 吨，环比上行3元／吨。分析认为，双节过后供给端利好因素不断累积，需求阶段性释放，导致市场情 绪呈现偏强走势，现货煤价向上运行，叠加10月份长协价格同步上涨，本周期，环渤海动力煤综合平均 价格涨幅扩大。 供应端，双节过后，产地降雨影响部分煤矿生产、大秦线集中检修部分港口调进减量、价格倒挂、发运 积极性欠佳等因素叠加，导致集港货源量明显下降，周期内环渤海九港日均调进量为148.2万吨，较上 周期下降20%。货源补充及时性偏差、结构性不理想，给予了持货卖方挺价惜售情绪。 需求端，10月上半月，恰逢国庆假期及传统消费淡季，但在南方持续高温加持下，终端电厂日耗同比偏 高15%至20%左右，叠加冬储预期的存在，部分电厂在节后释放补库拉运需求，恰逢封航导致部分船舶 滞港，船货匹配出现小幅失衡，对煤价起到一定利好支撑。 整体来看，本轮煤价上涨由"供应收缩+需求韧性+冬储预期"共同驱动，周度后期，现货煤价涨势加速 超市场预期，后续来看，随着南方高温消退，市场完成对节后阶段性需求增量的消化，捂货情绪降温， 煤价底部支撑将逐渐趋弱， ...

供应端，在主产地"查超产"、安全整改等因素持续影响下，各主要铁路通道货源上站发运不见增量，加 之地销货源分流，环渤海港口货源集港未出现明显增加，在终端保持稳定有序补库背景下，环渤海港口 累库进程放缓，合计库存水平近一个月持续运行于2300万吨以下，国庆假期及秋季集中修前累库节奏远 不及预期。同时，非电采购需求支撑产地煤价持续探涨，到港价格倒挂使得港口端价格同步上调。到港 成本增加叠加货源恢复进程缓慢，供给端利多因素累积，支撑沿海煤炭价格反弹。 需求端，沿海煤炭消费季节性转淡，各省电煤负荷同步下行，库存迅速累积，沿海电厂库存已较上年同 期偏高130万吨，节前大规模补库需求并不强烈。同时，受华西秋雨影响，今年三峡水库上游来水充 足，水电发力持续时间明显高于上年，清洁能源替代补充作用增强，一定程度上缓解了电煤淡季采购需 求的释放。强冷空气逐渐南下，全国电煤需求淡季特征将加强，电煤累库叠加水电发力，终端对价格的 接受度有所下降，本周期末端沿海煤炭价格涨势受限。 整体来看，本轮煤价上涨基本由供给端主导，基本呈现涨势快、历时短的特征，需求端淡季特征加强背 景下或将逐步企稳。后续来看，东北地区采暖需求释放，叠加国家大力支撑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has increased by 5 yuan/ton to 676 yuan/ton, influenced by supply and demand factors as well as imported coal dynamics [1] - The coal market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and a lack of support for port prices, leading to low-price selling by traders and a predominance of long-term contracts in transactions [1][2] - Production has been affected by previous heavy rainfall, overproduction checks, and upgraded safety regulations, resulting in reduced output from some coal mines, although this has had limited impact on coal prices [1] Group 2 - The port coal prices have been in a continuous decline since late August, with traders lowering prices to alleviate shipping pressure, while downstream buyers exhibit a "buy high, not low" mentality [1] - As of September 3, coal inventory at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim stands at 22.19 million tons, which is 1.37 million tons lower than the same period last year, primarily due to long-term contract shipments [1] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reported a significant drop in the reference price for medium and low-calorie coal, which enhances the competitive edge of imported coal and further suppresses domestic coal prices [2]

整体来看，现阶段物流环节对煤炭向港口及下游转移形成制约，造成沿海煤炭市场呈现供给偏弱、需求 释放缓慢的局面，待时段性影响消退，整体煤炭运输环节恢复周转秩序，需求端增量大概率强于供给端 增量，沿海煤炭价格仍存一定的上行空间。 新华财经太原8月6日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网6日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于668元／吨， 环比上行3元／吨。该网分析认为，多因素交织作用于沿海煤炭市场，买卖双方博弈升级，基于集港货 源不足、终端采购需求陆续释放等因素，部分贸易商捂盘惜售、看涨情绪高涨，接连抬高报价，对沿海 煤价形成较强支撑。在长协、现货价格双双上涨带动下，环渤海动力煤价格指数连续4周上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 供应方面，频繁降雨制约主产地煤炭生产及运输作业，部分路段封闭维修施工影响煤炭运输，再加上发 运港口价格倒挂矛盾加剧，整体煤炭外运积极性较差，大秦铁路日运量已连续12日运行在100万吨及以 下水平，当周日均运量92万吨。集港货源严重不足，致使港口煤种结构性失衡情况加重，进而支撑部分 贸易商挺价心理，助推港口煤价上行。 需求方面，台风对沿海地区影响减弱，周度后期高温势力快速发展，居民用电负荷再次提升，用电需求 ...

入伏以来，沿海台风及降雨天气使得大范围高温有所缓和，也增强了区域内水电出力替代能力，电煤日 耗继续冲高势头有所减弱。数据显示，近期沿海八省电煤日耗基本维持在225万吨左右，整体库存保持 在3500万吨以上相对高位。同时在南方及江内港口库存充足、进口煤保持价差优势等情况下，北上采购 积极性持续受限。 整体来看，沿海煤炭市场正值迎峰度夏消费旺季，叠加政策端严查煤矿超产、货源供应收紧的预期导 向，供需基本面或将进入逐步调整修复阶段，预计短期内市场双方依然难改僵持博弈局面。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经太原7月30日电 秦皇岛煤炭网30日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于665元／吨，环比上行1 元／吨。分析认为，煤炭市场供应端扰动增加，坑口货源周转及集港受到限制，港口环节可流通货盘供 应延续偏紧，市场煤价重心保持惯性上移，本周期环渤海动力煤综合价格指数继续上行。 进入北方汛期以来，晋陕蒙主产区强降雨对煤矿产销带来实质性影响，尤其露天煤矿临时停产情况增 多，叠加月末部分煤矿完成产能任务后停产及减产情况，市场货源供应及周转受到较大限制。同时，国 家能源局等相关部门将对晋蒙等八省区煤矿开展超产核查，国内煤炭产量增速或将 ...

电煤消费旺季特征增强。我国大部地区出现持续性高温与降雨天气，体感闷热潮湿提振居民用电需求， 部分地区电网最高用电负荷创历史新高。本周期，电煤消费旺季特征增强，且呈现区域性差异，其中华 东地区电厂耗煤量周环比骤增14%，拉动沿海八省电厂耗煤量上涨超一成，存煤可用天数降至16天左 右，达到今年以来最低值，终端补库动能有所增强。 秦皇岛煤炭网9日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于662元／吨，环比下行2元／吨。分析认为，电煤 消费旺季特征增强后，沿海煤炭市场信心有所修复，活跃度增强，现货价格进入上行通道，但随着新月 度长协逐步兑现，长协价下行拖累整体走势。本周期，环渤海动力煤综合平均价格小幅下降。 集港货源少量收缩。近期山西、内蒙古地区迎来较强降雨过程，时段性影响露天煤矿生产及运输作业， 煤炭供应出现少量收缩。本周期，大秦线及张唐线日均发运量仅有129万吨，周环比下降8.5%，集港货 源略显不足，一定程度上支撑卖方挺价心理。 （文章来源：新华财经） 进口煤补充不及预期。近段时间内外贸价差缩小后，进口煤价格不具备明显优势，再加上外盘报价相对 坚挺、终端采购策略调整，进口煤周度到岸量始终维持偏低位水平，较去年同期低四成左 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is experiencing a slight stabilization in prices, with the index reported at 663 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan from the previous period, indicating a temporary easing of the supply-demand imbalance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index has decreased due to a drop in long-term contract prices, despite some positive factors emerging in the market [1]. - The reduction in production from major coal-producing regions has led to a slight increase in prices for certain high-quality coal types [1]. - Coal imports in May were reported at 36.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.776 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 1.785 million tons, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the import market [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand - As of June 11, coal inventories at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim have fallen below 29 million tons, a decrease of 13% from previous highs, suggesting improved port operations [1]. - The number of available days of coal for coastal provinces has dropped to below 20 days, indicating a potential increase in demand as the peak electricity consumption season approaches [1]. - Despite some recovery in market sentiment, overall coal inventory levels remain historically high, which continues to suppress price increases [2]. Group 3: External Factors - The implementation of freight rate reductions by some railway bureaus has lowered coal circulation costs in certain regions [2]. - The onset of the rainy season in southern regions is expected to increase hydropower output, putting additional pressure on thermal power generation [2]. - The non-electricity sector continues to exert downward pressure on raw material prices due to low profit margins, limiting the potential for price rebounds in the coal market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The coastal coal market is experiencing a rapid decline in prices due to weak demand and excessive inventory, with the Qinhuangdao coal price index reported at 671 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The inventory at Qin-Tang-Cang ports remains high at over 33 million tons, nearly 9 million tons higher than the same period last year, representing an increase of about 40% [1] - The supply-demand imbalance is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a pessimistic market outlook and a rapid downward trend in coastal coal prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, the coastal coal market is expected to continue its downward trend due to a lack of trading activity [2] - Positive factors may emerge with the implementation of national policies to boost domestic demand and the onset of the traditional peak summer coal procurement phase, which could improve market expectations [2] - As coal prices approach the breakeven point for high-cost mines, there is an increased willingness for production adjustments, enhancing the potential for supply-demand rebalancing in the coastal coal market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the coastal coal market is experiencing a strong supply and weak demand situation, leading to continuous price pressure [1][2] - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a decrease of 4 yuan/ton, settling at 673 yuan/ton, marking a continued decline in coal prices for six consecutive months [1] - The inventory levels at coastal ports have been rising, with daily coal consumption at coastal power plants remaining low due to the off-peak season [1] Group 2 - The Daqin line's spring maintenance has concluded, restoring daily transport capacity to a normal level of 1.2 million tons, with port inventories maintaining a high level of over 32 million tons [1] - Coastal power plants are primarily focused on inventory reduction, with coal consumption dropping to seasonal lows and the number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Sea ports reaching a historical low of 37 [1] - Looking ahead, there is an expectation for a gradual recovery in domestic coal prices as non-electricity sector demand resumes and the delayed effects of reduced imports during the off-peak season become apparent [2]