整体来看，随着本轮寒潮进入尾声，尤其是"三九、四九"即将结束，下周起全国大部气温回升，沿海煤 炭市场耗煤预计高位回落。同时，随着春节假期临近，主产地中小煤矿及终端工厂将陆续放假，上下游 开工率不足背景下，沿海煤炭市场将进入传统供需双弱时期，短期煤炭价格弱势偏稳概率加大。 新华财经太原1月22日电（记者张磊） 秦皇岛煤炭网1月21日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于685元 ／吨，环比下行1元／吨。分析认为，市场多空因素博弈，寒潮来袭难抵终端多源补库，本周期沿海煤 炭价格止涨回落，沿海煤炭综合价格小幅下降。 具体来看，正值冬季取暖用煤旺季，主产地发运相对稳定，中转港口货源相对充足。受本轮强冷空气影 响，终端降温及雨雪天气带动日耗保持相对高位，沿海电厂日耗较上年同期偏高30万吨，旺季耗煤特征 明显。然而终端保持内外贸多源补库，内贸中长期及市场货源同步采购的同时，2025年12月进口煤创下 单月新高，终端补库节奏整体稳定有序，终端供耗水平均衡运行。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is experiencing a slight upward trend in prices due to reduced port coal inventory pressure, increased upstream pricing intentions, and tightening of imported coal supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Price Trends - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index has risen to 686 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan per ton compared to the previous period [1]. - The overall market sentiment is being positively influenced by factors such as the easing of port coal inventory pressure and support from the cost side of the supply chain [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal mines in major production areas are maintaining normal production and sales, resulting in a relatively loose overall supply [1]. - There has been an increase in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in chemicals, leading to improved sales conditions in certain cost-effective mining areas [1]. - However, limited procurement increases from surrounding power plants and cautious replenishment actions from traders are leading to a stable pricing strategy from miners [1]. Group 3: Import Coal Market - Indonesian coal supply constraints have persisted since the end of last year, keeping prices firm and driving domestic import market prices upward [2]. - The price advantage of low-calorie imported coal from Indonesia compared to domestic coal has diminished, while the price advantage of high-calorie coal from Australia has also narrowed, resulting in a slowdown in procurement activity [2]. - Overall, while the coastal coal market is in a recovery phase after previous declines, limited consumer demand continues to suppress significant price increases, with expectations of a stalemate in the short term [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Qinhuangdao coal price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has decreased to 685 yuan per ton, down by 8 yuan from the previous period, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations and supply chain dynamics [1] Supply Side - Coal mines that were temporarily shut down before the holiday have resumed normal production and sales, but high port inventories, price inversions, and uncertain logistics policies have slowed the flow of coal from production areas to ports [1] - The average daily transport volume on the Daqin line was only 910,000 tons during this period, indicating a significant slowdown in coal supply [1] - Despite the tight supply of some low-calorie quality coal, the overall supply remains insufficient, leading to continued inventory depletion at ports [1] Demand Side - The New Year holiday coincided with higher-than-usual temperatures across many regions, causing daily coal consumption in eight coastal provinces to drop below 2 million tons [1] - Post-holiday, daily consumption quickly increased due to colder weather and the resumption of business operations, but the overall demand has not shown significant improvement [1] - The stability of long-term contracts and the influx of imported coal have prevented a noticeable supply-demand gap, maintaining a steady pace of procurement from downstream buyers [1] Market Outlook - The current coastal market for spot prices is showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to tightening supply, which has led to a rebound in market sentiment [1] - However, the lack of substantial improvement in actual demand means that the factors supporting continued price increases remain weak [1] - Until effective inventory reduction occurs across the entire supply chain, the transaction dynamics between upstream and downstream will likely remain in a stalemate [1]

Group 1 - The BPI index from the business community continued to recover in December, reaching 899 points, a 2.4% increase compared to the end of November, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and ongoing narratives in the industry [1][4][5] - The energy index decreased by 4.2% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous metal index increased by 11.4% month-on-month, driven by liquidity premiums in commodities [4][5] - In December, the prices of major commodities showed mixed trends, with rebar and coking coal futures rising by 3.8% and 9.8% respectively, while the spot price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim fell by 16.8% [9][11] Group 2 - The housing prices in the four first-tier cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index showing declines of -1.0%, -1.9%, -1.1%, and -1.2% for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively [11] - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) rose by 6.0% month-on-month, with battery cells and polysilicon prices leading the increase, while lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 26.2% [2][12] - The export shipping sector saw stable price increases, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rising by 2.2% month-on-month, and significant increases in the WCID container freight indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York [14][15] Group 3 - Food prices showed mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork falling by 1.4% month-on-month, while the average wholesale price of seven key monitored fruits increased by 9.7% [18] - The ICPI index, representing non-food items, showed a month-on-month increase to 100.41, indicating a rise in prices for transportation and clothing [20] - The EPMI and PMI data indicated an upward trend in factory price indices, aligning with broader price indicators like the BPI and the Nanhua Composite Index, suggesting an improving economic price trend [20]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a stabilization in the coal market with a slight decline in prices, driven by seasonal demand and supply dynamics, while highlighting the cautious sentiment among end-users regarding high-priced coal [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 693 RMB/ton, down by 2 RMB/ton compared to the previous period [1] - The spot price for 5500K thermal coal was 681 RMB/ton, while the long-term contract price was 694 RMB/ton, indicating a ratio of 1:9 between spot and long-term prices [1] - Among 24 specifications, 10 saw price declines of 5 RMB/ton, reflecting a broader trend of price stabilization [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic production capacity is constrained as some major coal-producing regions have completed their annual production targets and are reducing output or entering maintenance phases [2] - The impact of high historical import levels is diminishing, and the decline in domestic coal prices has led to a price competitiveness issue for some imported coals, with expectations of reduced imports in January [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Heating demand is experiencing moderate growth, with coastal power plants' daily consumption increasing by 13% since the beginning of the month, driven by expectations of colder weather [2] - Non-electric demand remains relatively stable, with high operating rates in non-electric industries contributing to steady demand signals [2] Group 4: Inventory and Market Sentiment - Coastal power plants' available days of coal have dropped to below 17 days, indicating a need for replenishment, although port inventories remain high [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, with end-users hesitant to purchase high-priced coal, leading to a slower pace of demand release and limiting price rebound potential [3] Group 5: Shipping Market - The coastal coal shipping market has seen a rise in freight rates, with the shipping coal price index increasing by 7.39% to 714.16 points [3] - Specific routes have reported increases in average freight rates, such as the Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou route rising to 37.6 RMB/ton, and the Qinhuangdao to Shanghai route increasing to 24.6 RMB/ton [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) recorded 899 points in the fourth week of December, reflecting a 2.4% increase compared to the end of November[3] - The highest BPI index for the year was 907 points on March 16, while the lowest was 849 points on June 11[3] - The energy index decreased by 4.2% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index increased by 11.4% month-on-month[4] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Silver prices surged by 9.76%, nickel by 7.05%, and copper by 4.31% in the fourth week of December[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 3.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 3.0%[5] - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 6.0% month-on-month, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 26.2%[6] Group 3: Real Estate and Logistics - The second-hand housing price index in major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) decreased by 1.0% to 1.9% month-on-month[5] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 26.7% month-on-month, while the road logistics price index decreased by 1.3%[7] - The average wholesale price of pork dropped by 1.4%, while key vegetable prices fell by 2.8%[7] Group 4: Price Trends - The ICPI index (based on online data) reached 100.41, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.42%[7] - The DXI index (representing the DRAM memory industry) rose by 21.1%, reaching a historical high[6]

Core Viewpoint - The market for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is showing signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with the price index reported at 693 yuan/ton, down by 2 yuan/ton from the previous period, indicating a slowing down of the downward trend and a potential bottoming out of prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for thermal coal is expected to increase due to steady heating needs and low-temperature weather forecasts, which are driving up daily consumption at power plants [1] - Coastal power plants have seen a 13% increase in daily consumption compared to the beginning of the month, signaling a seasonal uptick in electricity demand [1] - The supply of domestic coal is tightening as some major production areas have completed their annual production targets and are reducing output or entering maintenance phases [1] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - Despite a slight decrease in port inventories, they remain at high levels, which continues to suppress prices, compounded by a market sentiment of "buying on the rise, not on the fall" [2] - The available days of coal at coastal power plants have dropped to a reasonable low level, with inventories at power plants still relatively high, indicating that the pressure to deplete stocks has not fully eased [2] - The demand for low-calorie coal is recovering first, while the acceptance of high-priced market coal remains low among end-users, suggesting that short-term price rebounds may be limited [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bearish sentiment in the coastal coal market, with prices continuing to decline and a significant increase in inventory levels across various segments [1][2] Group 2 - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a decrease to 703 RMB/ton, down 3 RMB/ton from the previous period, reflecting a broader downtrend in coal prices [1] - Coal supply has increased significantly, with port inventories surpassing 28 million tons, approaching 29 million tons, matching levels from the previous year [1] - Despite the arrival of winter, demand has not surged as expected, with coal stockpiles at coastal power plants remaining adequate, leading to a slowdown in purchasing activity [1] Group 3 - In November, coal imports decreased by 19.9% year-on-year to 44.05 million tons, but showed a month-on-month increase of 5.5%, indicating a potential rise in imports in December due to price advantages [2] - The overall sentiment in the market remains bearish, with buyers gaining more bargaining power, suggesting a continued downward trend in coal prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a strong supply and weak demand situation, leading to a bearish sentiment among market participants, despite a recent increase in the price index due to long-term contract price hikes [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported at 706 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous period, driven by significant price hikes in long-term contracts [1]. - Under the supply guarantee policy, inventories across various stages from production to terminal are accumulating, with a notable increase in stock at northern ports, which reached 27.297 million tons, up 17.5% [1]. Demand Analysis - Despite frequent cold weather, the impact on demand has been limited, with daily coal consumption at coastal power plants fluctuating between 1.8 to 1.9 million tons [1]. - The anticipated peak season demand has not materialized, and previous coal price surges have already dampened some of the seasonal expectations, leading to a weakening of price support [1][2]. Market Sentiment - The prevailing market sentiment is increasingly pessimistic, with bearish views dominating as the market digests previous positive expectations [1][2]. - The upcoming national coal trading conference may temporarily boost demand, but without a significant increase in terminal coal consumption and restored market confidence, coastal coal prices are likely to remain under pressure [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current market for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has stabilized, with the price index remaining at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a balance between supply constraints and demand limitations [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Some mining areas have completed their annual production targets and are actively reducing capacity, while environmental inspections limit production increases. However, major mines in key production areas continue stable operations to ensure supply [1]. - Increased coal imports have been noted, with coastal power plants ramping up their procurement, which has helped to fill domestic supply gaps and reduce upward pressure on prices in the domestic market [1]. Demand Analysis - The heating season in northern regions has commenced, leading to a slight increase in power plant operating rates. However, overall demand has not exceeded expectations, with inland power plants showing weaker daily consumption compared to last year [1]. - End-user procurement remains cautious, primarily relying on long-term contracts, and there is a low acceptance of high-priced market coal. Non-electric sectors such as construction and chemicals are maintaining demand-based purchasing strategies, resulting in overall procurement activity being lower than in previous periods [1]. Price Outlook - The combination of rising inventories, increased imports, and resistance from end-users is limiting the potential for price increases, leading to a high-level price correction. Nonetheless, the demand from heating needs and supply constraints are expected to support the price center [2]. - Future price movements will depend on temperature changes, the pace of inventory depletion at ports, and adjustments in import coal policies. If a cold winter leads to unexpectedly high demand, prices may rebound [2].