Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the thermal coal industry is a bullish and volatile outlook [1] Core Viewpoint - This week, the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports showed a bullish and volatile pattern. Supply tightened in major production areas due to some coal mines halting or reducing production after completing monthly tasks at the end of July and weather - related disruptions in production or transportation. Non - power demand maintained on - demand procurement at production areas, but downstream power terminals had limited acceptance of the spot price hikes at northern ports [1][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Prices - The report presents price charts of 5500 - kcal thermal coal in Linfen, Shuozhou, and Jinzhong, as well as the pit - mouth prices of 4500/5500 - kcal thermal coal in Ordos [3] Port Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.35 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.12 million tons, at Jingtang Port's Guotou Port Area was 1.3 million tons, and at Guangzhou Xinsha Port was 1.89 million tons [3] Northern and Southern Port Thermal Coal Prices - The report shows price charts of 5500 - kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, Guangzhou Port, and Fangchenggang Port. As of August 1, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 755.43, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,644.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 3,296.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 1,269.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 678.00 [5] International Coal Prices - As of July 25, 2025, the price of Australian Newcastle thermal coal was $110.21 per ton, and the price of South African Richards Bay thermal coal was $95.60 per ton [7] Supply - Demand Review - Supply tightened in major production areas due to some coal mines halting or reducing production after completing monthly tasks at the end of July and weather - related disruptions in production or transportation. Non - power demand maintained on - demand procurement at production areas, but downstream power terminals had limited acceptance of the spot price hikes at northern ports [9]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 动力煤：终端补库积极，震荡企稳 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 上周市场回顾： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡偏强格局。 多头：1、主产地煤矿库存较上期减少 0.73 个百分点，月底少数中小煤矿月度生产任务完成停产减产，目前 冶金化工需求稳定，部分地方电厂补库需求释放，周边站台及煤场拉运积极性增加，多数煤矿销售良好，库 存维持低位运行。2、目前港口市场报价仍然高位坚挺，近期煤炭市场利好消息频出，市场参与者分歧逐渐 显现，多数贸易商观望煤矿超产核查情况，对后市保持乐观态度（汾渭信息）。 受供应政策预取约束冲击，产区及港口报价相对坚挺，但考虑到整体需求释放规模仍较有限，叠加后续供应 仍存修复预期，还盘压力同样具备。产地方面，主产区煤价延续偏强走势，部分中小煤矿月度产量完成停产 减产增多，目前冶金化工等终端采购稳定，站台煤场配煤等拉运积极。港口方面，市场情绪向好，港口发运 成本持续倒挂，库存小幅波动向下，市场优质货源补充不足，贸易商惜售 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 6 日 动力煤：情绪好转，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 期货研究 报告导读： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡偏强格局。 多头：1、6 月 26 日-7 月 2 日"三西"地区煤矿产能利用率较上期下降 1.51 个百分点。6 月末产地部分煤 矿完成生产任务停产停销，叠加部分煤矿搬家倒面，监测点煤矿产能利用率下降，局部区域煤炭供应小幅收 紧，7 月初因完成任务停产的煤矿已经恢复生产，目前煤矿供应充足稳定（汾渭信息）。2、主产地煤矿库存 较上期下降 0.84 个百分点，库存处于中低水平。化工采购稳定，水泥、钢厂需求偏弱，焦煤配煤采购好转， 部分站台客户少量拉运，煤矿整体出货良好，部分前期库存较高的煤矿库存下降，整体库存维持中地位水 平。 综合来看，受阶段性供应减量冲击，产区及港口报价相对坚挺，但考虑到整体需求释放规模仍较有限，叠加 后续供应仍存修复预期，还盘压力同样具备。产地方面，主产区煤价延续偏强走势，部分中小煤矿月度产量 完成停产减产增多，目前冶金化工等终端采购稳定，站台煤场配煤等拉运积极。港口方 ...

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry, specifically the thermal coal market, is experiencing a downward trend since 2025, with prices nearing 2014 lows due to oversupply [1][3] - The market is characterized by a significant increase in coal production, particularly in Shanxi and Xinjiang, but recent environmental inspections and weak demand may lead to a decrease in production [1][5] Key Points Price Trends - As of May 2025, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal has dropped over 150 RMB since the beginning of the year, reflecting a significant decline in market prices [1][3] - The average price for thermal coal is expected to decrease to 650-660 RMB/ton for the year, with potential fluctuations in the second half of the year [4][14] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to April 2025, the cumulative oversupply of thermal coal reached 30.46 million tons, with inventory levels remaining historically high despite some reductions at northern ports [10][11] - Domestic thermal coal supply has increased by over 10 million tons year-on-year, while demand from the thermal power sector has been pressured by the rise of renewable energy sources [9][10] Production Insights - Shanxi aims for a production target of 1.013 billion tons, while Xinjiang's target is 600 million tons, but both face challenges related to market conditions and transportation limitations [6][15] - Environmental inspections have led to some production reductions, but no large-scale shutdowns have occurred [7][25] Import and Export Factors - Import volumes of thermal coal are expected to decrease by 30-50 million tons in 2025, primarily due to reduced imports from Indonesia and Australia [8][19] - The overall supply remains ample, with domestic production compensating for the decline in imports [9][10] Market Predictions - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential improvements in supply-demand balance due to seasonal factors and production adjustments [4][12] - The market may see a slight price increase in the third quarter, but high inventory levels and continued supply could lead to further price declines [13][14] Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has engaged with index institutions to stabilize market pricing, which has contributed to a period of relative price stability [21][22] - Government policies are expected to prevent drastic price declines, with a focus on maintaining production levels despite market pressures [25] Additional Insights - The recent increase in low-calorie coal prices is attributed to high supply and low demand for high-calorie coal, leading to a shift in market dynamics [16][17] - The coal market is currently facing a challenging environment, with potential price drops below 600 RMB likely if demand does not improve and production levels remain high [24]