期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 核心逻辑：近期，国内动力煤价格企稳运行，不过煤市乐观氛围仍未扭转，贸易商采购积极性良 好，涨价煤矿依然较多。从供应端来看，虽然外贸煤进口量平稳运行，但月末煤矿完成生产目标 后停产增多，叠加 11 月中央安全生产考核巡察组将进驻主产区，市场对年末供应收缩存有一定 预期，支撑煤价偏强运行。需求方面，近期北方多地持续降温，已提前进入冬季模式，南部沿海 城市在经历 10 月降温后，需求淡季下滑，不过沿海城市电厂存煤水平偏低，后续仍有补库需求， 将对煤市氛围形成一定支撑。库存方面，iFind 数据显示，截至 10 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总 库存 2316.9 万吨，周环比降 80 万吨，较去年同期库存偏低 272.9 万吨，下游的潜在补库需求对 港口煤价带来一定支撑。整体来看，部分利好在 10 月基本兑现，随着煤价上涨，市场博弈加剧， 预计后市煤价涨势将有所放缓，或暂维持高位震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 多空博弈加剧，港口煤价高位震 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：近期，国内动力煤价格企稳运行，不过煤市乐观氛围仍未扭转，贸易商采购积极性良 好，涨价煤矿依然较多。从供应端来看，虽然外贸煤进口量平稳运行，但月末煤矿完成生产目标 后停产增多，叠加 11 月中央安全生产考核 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of thermal coal spot is that short - term bullish factors resonate, and port coal prices are operating strongly. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". In October, domestic coal prices ran strongly, but in the second half of the month, coastal electricity coal demand declined rapidly, and the upward trend of coal prices is expected to slow down in November. The relative bullish factors are "policy disturbances on the supply side" and "restocking demand of coastal power plants" [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that short - term bullish factors resonate, and port coal prices are operating strongly [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - The reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". In October, domestic coal prices ran strongly. As of October 21, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 755 yuan/ton, a rise of 54 yuan/ton compared with the end - of - September price. In October, multiple bullish factors in the coal market resonated. Some weather and policy factors drove coal prices to rise beyond expectations. However, in the second half of the month, the temperature in coastal areas dropped sharply, electricity coal demand declined rapidly, and with the recovery of coal logistics and transportation, the upward trend of coal prices is expected to slow down in November. The relative bullish factors are "policy disturbances on the supply side" and "restocking demand of coastal power plants" [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the short - term price of domestic thermal coal will maintain a relatively strong trend. This is because the supply of domestic thermal coal has gradually stabilized after the "anti - involution" capacity verification, and the supply - side pressure has been significantly alleviated compared to the previous two years. Additionally, the fundamental outlook for thermal coal before the National Day is favorable [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - As of September 17, 2025, the quoted price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 689 yuan/ton, showing a week - on - week increase [4]. Viewpoint on Thermal Coal - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply of domestic thermal coal has become stable after the capacity verification, and the supply - side pressure has eased. Coupled with the good fundamental expectations before the National Day, the short - term coal price is expected to be strong [4].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on thermal coal dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic thermal coal price maintained a weak and stable trend this week. The market is in a bearish sentiment, and the opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage replenishment of terminal power plants [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Conditions - As of September 11, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [4] Supply Side - The impact of the September 3 parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the thermal coal output has gradually returned to the pre - parade level, and the main producing area coal mines maintained normal production [4] Demand Side - As of the week of September 4, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 245.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.7 million tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 355.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. The domestic thermal coal demand has significantly declined from the summer peak [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation" in the short - term and medium - term. The price of domestic power coal has been weakly stable this week. As of September 11, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The coal price is driven by weak operation due to the seasonal decline in power plant coal consumption and the lack of obvious improvement in non - power coal demand. The fundamentals of power coal are weakening in the off - season, and the market bearish sentiment still exists. The opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage replenishment of terminal power plants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Condition - As of September 11, the quotation of 5500K power coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [4] Supply - side Situation - The impact of the September 3 parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the power coal output has gradually returned to the pre - parade level, and the main producing area coal mines maintain normal production. The impact of "anti - involution" has not been further released [4] Demand - side Situation - As of the week of September 4, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 245.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.7 million tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 355.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons. The domestic power coal demand has significantly declined compared with the summer peak [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic thermal coal price maintained a strong performance this week. It is expected that the coal price will remain strong in the mid - term due to high temperature in late August and early September, good electricity demand, slow supply growth, and significant inventory reduction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark. The coal price has been rising due to high electricity demand and strong hauling enthusiasm [5]. Supply Aspect - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 12.29 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Since August, affected by rainfall, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance in major producing areas, the thermal coal output has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply is slow [5]. Demand Aspect - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 4.092 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 247,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 2.518 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 tons. The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, the temperature in most of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher, while the hydropower substitution effect may still be limited [5]. Inventory Aspect - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.636 million tons, with a significant reduction of 1.183 million tons within the week, and 1.182 million tons lower than the same period last year [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will remain strong. The domestic thermal coal price has been running strongly this week, and it is expected to continue this trend due to factors such as high - temperature - driven demand, limited supply growth, and inventory reduction [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the coal market is still optimistic, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the middle and late August due to high temperatures [5]. Supply Side - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by rainfall in major production areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and supply growth in production areas is slow [5]. Demand Side - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, an increase of 24,700 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons week - on - week [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher, and the hydropower substitution effect may still be limited [5]. Inventory - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3636 million tons, with a significant inventory reduction of 118,300 tons during the week, and the inventory was 118,200 tons lower than the same period last year [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The domestic thermal coal price is expected to remain strong. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and with high temperatures persisting in mid - to late August, coal prices are likely to maintain a bullish trend [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - As of August 14, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.636 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 1.183 million tons, and 1.182 million tons lower than the same period last year [5]. Supply - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by factors such as rainfall in major producing areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply has been slow [5]. Demand - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,700 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,500 tons [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures will be significantly higher in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeastern part of Southwest China. Hydropower substitution may still be limited [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1][4] Group 2: Core View - The reference view for the intraday and medium - term of thermal coal is "oscillation". The overall thermal coal price is expected to run strongly due to good support from peak - season demand and rapid inventory reduction at northern ports [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Supply - At the end of July, some coal mines temporarily stopped production after achieving their production targets, leading to a short - term decline in coal output. However, it is expected to recover rapidly in August. The coal mine over - production rectification by the National Energy Administration has not significantly tightened safety supervision in production areas, and the coal mines in major production areas are fulfilling their responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak season with stable output [4] Demand - The National Climate Center's climate trend forecast for August shows that the temperature in most parts of the country will be close to or higher than the same period of the year. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents' daily lives will have certain support this summer [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.847 million tons, with a significant weekly de - stocking of 2.25 million tons, and slightly higher than the same period last year by 235,000 tons [4]