Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded, with the January contract reaching a high of 88,000 yuan and closing at 86,500 yuan on November 11, a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid - October. The trading volume is high, and the open interest has reached a record high of nearly one million lots this year, but there are significant differences above 80,000 yuan [1]. - From the supply - demand perspective, positive factors are accumulating. Demand has unexpectedly reversed, with downstream price - increase factors spreading from top to bottom. The consumption of lithium carbonate is now driven by both power batteries and energy - storage batteries, and the proportion of energy - storage batteries has rapidly increased from less than 15% in 2023 to nearly one - third recently. Also, the desired inventory level has sharply increased, and despite high production, the weekly inventory has been decreasing [2]. - The main risk lies in policy - expectation changes in mines. The competitive supply pattern and high supply elasticity remain suppressing factors. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate is expected to remain at around 30% in the next two years. With high overall inventory, physical goods are abundant, suppressing the price at high levels. The report is cautiously optimistic, placing the core price range at 75,000 - 95,000 yuan [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded to the previous anti - involution hype high. The January contract reached 88,000 yuan, closing at 86,500 yuan on November 11, up over 20% since mid - October. Trading volume is high, open interest has reached a record high this year, and there are significant differences above 80,000 yuan [1]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Demand Reversal**: Positive factors are accumulating. Demand has unexpectedly reversed, with downstream price - increase factors spreading. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium enterprises are ramping up production, and battery factory orders are increasing due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak season of traditional vehicle sales, and the strong demand for energy - storage batteries. The proportion of energy - storage batteries in lithium carbonate consumption has rapidly increased from less than 15% in 2023 to nearly one - third recently [2]. - **Inventory Increase**: Since September, the weekly domestic production of lithium carbonate has hit new highs, rising from 17,000 tons per week to 19,000 tons in late October. However, weekly inventory has been decreasing, indicating strong supply and demand. Since July, due to improved expectations from anti - involution, the inventory level has increased, driving short - to - medium - term demand and warming the spot market [2]. Market Risks and Future Trends - **Risk Points**: Market rumors of earlier - than - expected mine resumptions in Yichun led to a sharp drop in lithium prices to 78,000 yuan. Policy - expectation changes regarding mines will significantly affect market sentiment [4]. - **Supply Situation**: The competitive supply pattern and high supply elasticity are suppressing factors. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate is expected to remain at around 30% in the next two years. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants is high, and it is expected that the domestic production of lithium carbonate in November will be roughly flat compared to the previous month [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The total market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons, with smelter inventory down 1,300 tons to 31,000 tons, downstream inventory down 1,300 tons to 52,000 tons, and trader inventory down 80 tons to 41,000 tons. High inventory continues to suppress prices at high levels [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The report is cautiously optimistic, placing the core price range at 75,000 - 95,000 yuan [4].