1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

2026 年 2 月 25 日 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，价格表现较坚挺 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 164,120 | 11,480 | 27,120 | 31,680 | 900 | 64,000 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 214,364 | -85,827 | -90,957 | -429,950 | -216,892 | -413,376 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 365,180 | 22,954 | 21,109 | 17,48 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2026 年 2 月 24 日 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 152,640 | 3,220 | 19,720 | 4,440 | -9,300 | 65,700 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 300,191 | -4,607 | -286,515 | -252,477 | -288,828 | 170,287 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 342,226 | -11 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, net sales reached $1.4 billion, a 16% increase from $1.2 billion in the same period last year, driven by growth in lithium products (+17%) and Ketjen products (+13%) [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $26.87 million, reflecting a 7.2% increase compared to the previous year [16]. - The overall net loss attributable to Albemarle was $414.2 million in Q4 2025, an increase of $489.5 million year-over-year, primarily due to tax-related items and asset impairments [2][16]. Summary by Sections Overall Financial Performance - Q4 2025 net sales were $1.4 billion, up 16% from $1.2 billion in Q4 2024, with a gross profit of $197.9 million, a 43% increase year-over-year [1][16]. - The net loss for the full year 2025 was $465.2 million, compared to a loss of $1.1 billion in 2024 [5]. Lithium Segment - In Q4 2025, lithium sales volume was 63,000 tons LCE, a 6% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 28.6% increase year-over-year [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the lithium segment in Q4 2025 was $16.71 million, a 34.6% increase from the previous quarter and a 25% increase year-over-year [6]. Specialty Products - Q4 2025 net sales for specialty chemicals were $34.89 million, a 1.1% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 4.8% increase year-over-year [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for specialty products in 2025 was $27.6 million, a 21% increase from the previous year [9]. Ketjen Segment - In Q4 2025, Ketjen's net sales were $32.01 million, a 26% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 13.6% increase year-over-year [10][11]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Ketjen in 2025 was $15 million, a 15% increase, primarily due to increased FCC sales [12]. 2026 Outlook - The lithium business is expected to see stable sales volumes in 2026, with market prices assumed to remain stable [13]. - The specialty products outlook reflects moderate sales growth in key end markets, although some sectors like automotive and construction are expected to be weak [14].

Market Overview - On February 11, the domestic lithium carbonate spot market saw a slight increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) settling at 142,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from the previous working day. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 140,000 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply of spot resources [1][4]. - In the futures market, lithium carbonate futures prices surged, with the main contract closing at 150,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,640 yuan from the previous working day. The trading volume this week was significantly lower than last week, with warehouse receipts remaining at a high level [1]. Price Trends - The price changes for various lithium products from February 10 to February 11 are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 1,930 yuan/ton (unchanged) - Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 142,500 yuan/ton (up 0.05%) - Lithium hydroxide: 140,000 yuan/ton (unchanged) - Lithium iron phosphate: 5,090 yuan/ton (up 0.01%) - Ternary materials: 20,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 375 yuan/unit (unchanged) [4]. Industry Insights - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1%. Additionally, new energy vehicle exports maintained rapid growth, with 302,000 units exported, a year-on-year increase of 100% [7]. - The recent rebound in lithium prices is seen as a correction following a previous 30% decline. Despite a reduction in production schedules for February, downstream users are actively replenishing inventory, leading to a gradual decrease in lithium carbonate market inventory, with particularly tight supplies of lithium hydroxide [8]. - A recent two-year sales agreement between Tianyi Lithium Industry and an Australian mine, with a minimum price of $1,000 (equivalent to 88,000 yuan for lithium carbonate), indicates a positive outlook for the lithium salt market, suggesting optimism from both supply and demand sides for the next two years [8]. - The industry believes that a lithium price around 150,000 yuan is acceptable for the entire supply chain. However, further increases will depend on energy storage companies' ability to absorb rising costs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company has completed the construction of a lithium salt technical transformation project with an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons, which is set to begin trial production on January 2, 2026 [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project aims to reduce production costs in the lithium salt business and accelerate the transition to smart manufacturing while promoting a green and low-carbon development model [1] - The total investment for the project exceeds 100 million yuan [1] - The main products of the project will be battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with the capacity to adjust production based on market demand [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - After the project is operational, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery-grade lithium salts [1] - The project will also produce by-products such as sodium sulfate [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cuihua Jewelry has been placed under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, leading to its stock being marked as "ST" (Special Treatment) and a significant decline in its financial performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On February 9, Cuihua Jewelry announced it received a notice from the CSRC regarding an investigation for suspected information disclosure violations [2]. - The company has previously faced scrutiny for failing to disclose guarantees provided for loans in a timely manner, which contributed to its current regulatory issues [3]. - As a result of the investigation, the company's stock will be suspended for one day and will resume trading on February 10 under the name "ST Cuihua" [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cuihua Jewelry reported a liquidity crisis, with overdue loans totaling 254 million yuan, leading to lawsuits and the freezing of major bank accounts [4]. - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a profit of 21 million to 31 million yuan, down 85.69% to 90.31% from the previous year [5]. - Despite the overall decline, the company anticipates a substantial increase in its non-recurring net profit, projecting a growth of 154.81% to 280.64% compared to the previous year, driven by improved performance in its jewelry and lithium salt segments [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Prior to the announcement of being marked as "ST," Cuihua Jewelry's stock experienced a significant drop, with a cumulative decline of 27.11% over three consecutive trading days [6].

市场方面，萃华珠宝近期股价跌幅较大。1月29日至2月2日，公司股价曾连续3日跌停。 值得注意的是，2月6日，萃华珠宝公告称，因公司资金紧张，流动性短缺，公司及子公司多笔金融机构贷款逾期违约，截至2月6日，公司及部分子公司累 计借款逾期本金为2.54亿元。多家金融机构已提起诉讼或仲裁，从而导致公司及子公司主要银行账户被人民法院冻结，对公司业务开展带来重大影响。截 至2月6日，公司及子公司由于合同纠纷和借款逾期导致公司主要银行账户被冻结，被冻结银行账户45个，实际冻结累计金额为472万元。 当天公告还称，公司股票将于2月9日开市时起停牌一天，于2月10日开市时起复牌，复牌后公司股票被实施其他风险警示，股票简称由"萃华珠宝"变 为"ST萃华"，证券代码不变，公司股票日涨跌幅限制为5%。 萃华珠宝此前主营珠宝饰品设计、加工、批发、零售，主要产品为黄金饰品；2022年，公司收购四川思特瑞锂业有限公司（以下简称"思特瑞锂业"）控股 权，跨界锂盐产业。目前，公司已形成"珠宝+锂盐"双主业的业务结构。 业绩方面，萃华珠宝预计2025年净利润为2100万元至3100万元，同比下滑85.69%至90.31%，扣非后净利润为1.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenyang Cuihua Gold and Silver Jewelry Co., Ltd. (Cuihua Jewelry) is facing significant liquidity issues, leading to the freezing of multiple bank accounts and the implementation of risk warnings on its stock, which will be renamed to "ST Cuihua" starting February 10, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Issues - Cuihua Jewelry has multiple bank accounts frozen due to overdue loans totaling 2.54 billion yuan, with 5.24 billion yuan in total bank loans, of which 2.34 billion yuan in principal is overdue [2][3]. - The company has a high debt load, with total debt increasing from 2.306 billion yuan at the end of 2022 to 4.307 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, and the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 58.06% to 68.78% during the same period [4]. - Short-term debt repayment pressure is significant, with short-term borrowings of 1.707 billion yuan and a total short-term repayment obligation exceeding 1.87 billion yuan, while available cash is only 438 million yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Business Transformation - Since its cross-industry transformation in 2022, Cuihua Jewelry has expanded its debt significantly, primarily due to its acquisition of a 51% stake in Sichuan Siterui Lithium Industry for 612 million yuan, entering the lithium salt business [4]. - The lithium segment has been underperforming, with losses of 186 million yuan in 2023 and 65.1 million yuan in 2024, despite promises of achieving a cumulative net profit of at least 300 million yuan from 2023 to 2025 [4]. Group 3: Operational Impact - The freezing of 45 bank accounts, including 4 basic accounts, has raised concerns about the company's operational capabilities, although the company claims that production and operations remain normal [3]. - High inventory levels, amounting to 3.723 billion yuan and nearly 60% of total assets, indicate that a significant amount of capital is tied up, which could hinder the company's short-term liquidity [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market is dominated by a weak trend, and the tight - balance logic temporarily fails. It is advisable to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session and then opened, closing at 132,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased to 531,700 lots, and the open interest decreased to 329,800 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio increased slightly month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GME was 33,787 lots, a decrease of 327 lots from the previous day. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 144,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Last week, raw material prices in the market generally increased. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 47.29% (-2.21%). Except for lithium mica, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [3] Demand - The production schedule of the lithium - battery downstream in February decreased month - on - month. This week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of the four - location samples by SMM decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month. This week, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, and the total inventory days increased to 30 days, with an increase in inventory days at each link [3] Macro Policy - On the demand side, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost - support center in the long term. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]