2025年08月26日 电力设备及新能源 鹏辉能源(300438.SZ) 上半年盈利承压，股权激励彰显发展信心 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:27.9元 行情走势图 公 司 报 告 证券分析师 事项： 公司发布2025年半年度报告。上半年，公司实现营业收入43.01亿元，同比增 长13.99%；归母净亏损0.88亿元，同比由盈转亏。第二季度，公司实现单季 营收26.11亿元，同比增长20.0%；归母净亏损0.43亿元，同比由盈转亏。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,932 | 7,961 | 9,333 | 11,149 | 12,916 | | YOY(%) | -23.5 | 14.8 | 17.2 | 19.5 | 15.8 | | 净利润(百万元) | 43 | -252 | 41 | 222 | 303 | | YOY(%) | -93.1 | -685.7 | 116.3 | 438.8 | 36.7 | ...

| | | 碳酸锂日评20250826:波动再放大,持仓注意保护 | 交易日期(日) | | 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-22 | 2025-08-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 近月合约 | 79580.00 | 79180.00 | 89300.00 | 400.00 | ww | | 收盘价 | 连一合约 | 79580.00 | 79180.00 | 89280.00 | 400.00 | ( | | 收盘价 | 连二合约 | 79040.00 | 78620.00 | 89240.00 | 420.00 | 7 | | 收盘价 | 连三合约 | 79040.00 | 78620.00 | 89240.00 | 420.00 | n | | 收盘价 | | 79380.00 | 78960.00 | 89240.00 | 420.00 | 3 | | 成交量(手) | 砖酸包期货 | 626916.00 | 932675.00 | 1036328.00 | -305,759. ...

| 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 83000.00 | 81040.00 | 73480.00 | 1,960.00 | w | | 收盘价 连一合约 | 82960.00 | 81000.00 | 85140.00 | 1,960.00 | ( 1 | | 连二合约 收盘价 连三合约 收盘价 | 82180.00 82180.00 | 80880.00 80880.00 | 85300.00 85300.00 | 1,300.00 1,300.00 | | | 收盘价 | 82760.00 | 80980.00 | 85300.00 | 1,780.00 | ( | | 碳酸锂期货 成交量(手) | 777827.00 | 838879.00 | 1060127.00 | -61,052.00 | | | 活跃合约 | | | | | | | (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) | 390069.00 | 395102 ...

Group 1 - Guoxuan High-Tech is entering the small power battery market by signing a cooperation agreement with Lujiang High-tech Zone to create a third growth pole for the company [1] - The daily electricity consumption of new energy vehicles in China is currently only 330 million KWh, which is 1.2% of the national average daily electricity consumption, indicating a vast market potential for energy storage lithium batteries [1] - If China's daily electricity consumption is shifted by two hours, the demand for energy storage batteries could exceed 10,000 GWh, positioning small power batteries as the third growth pole after power batteries and energy storage [1] Group 2 - Fengjiang Battery plans to expand its lithium battery business in Bangladesh by establishing a joint venture with a local company, with a registered capital of $500,000, where Fengjiang will invest $275,000 for a 55% stake [2] - This investment is part of Fengjiang Battery's strategic development plan to leverage geographical advantages for faster growth in the regional lithium battery market, aiming to serve other Southeast Asian countries [2] - Fengjiang Battery, founded in 2006, specializes in the customized and diversified research and production of lithium-ion batteries [2] Group 3 - Sodium Innovation Energy has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Ronghe Yuanshu Energy at the EESA International Energy Storage Exhibition to enhance collaboration in cell research, system solutions, market promotion, and demonstration projects [4] - The partnership aims to promote the commercialization of sodium-ion battery energy storage systems through complementary advantages [4] - Sodium Innovation Energy focuses on the research, production, and sales of core materials for sodium-ion batteries, providing solutions for end-users [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, production has rebounded, downstream demand has increased, and social inventory has been depleted. In the short - term, both supply and demand have strengthened. The impact from Jiangxi's mining end continues, but the exchange has taken measures to cool down coking coal futures. It is necessary to guard against the decline of "contrarian" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. In operation, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots (-185,297), and the open interest was 389,177 lots (-3,498). The contango in the spot market was strong, and the basis discount narrowed [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from $926.00 to $937.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose from $1,275.00 to $1,300.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from $2,030.00 to $2,075.00; the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was $0.00 (previously $7,250.00), and the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained at $8,350.00 [3] 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose from $81,000.00 to $82,000.00; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) increased from $78,800.00 to $79,750.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) increased from $8.50/kg to $8.60/kg; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained domestic) rose from $71,990.00 to $73,040.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized domestic) increased from $77,110.00 to $78,110.00 [3] 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was $76,575.00; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) remained at $76,830.00; the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) remained at $72,130.00; the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) remained at $90,235.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) rose from $118,795.00 to $118,995.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $113,260.00 to $113,530.00; the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $116,330.00 to $116,610.00; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) increased from $145,970.00 to $146,070.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) rose from $35,050.00 to $35,390.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy - storage type) increased from $31,235.00 to $34,040.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) rose from $31,000.00 to $31,230.00; the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased from $223,350.00 to $223,850.00 [3] 3.5 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] 3.6 Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 21,939 tons (+260 tons). Social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons [3] 4. Market Information - The US July PPI annual rate reached 3.3%, the highest since February; the July PPI monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. After the data was released, interest - rate futures traders reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi are intensifying. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a moderately strong short - term oscillation. After the downstream shutdowns, as prices rise, other lithium carbonate supplies will enter the market to replenish. This has little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress at Jiangxi mining sites and market sentiment. In terms of operations, short - term trading is recommended, and caution is advised when chasing high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trading Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 86,140 yuan/ton, up 7,140 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts was 1,417,040 lots (+1,379,633), and the open interest was 356,998 lots (+39,322). The basis discount narrowed [3] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan from the previous day. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also increased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 910 US dollars/ton, up 150 US dollars from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was 5,140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 40 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1,980 yuan, up 3,360 yuan from the previous day [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The total production of lithium carbonate from smelters and other sources was 143,170 tons, up 692 tons from the previous week [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C product shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 20,829 tons (+1,440), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters and other sources decreased, while the inventory of downstream enterprises increased [3] 3.4 Market News - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was flat at 2.7% compared to the previous month, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The lithium industry association called for strengthening upstream - downstream collaboration, maintaining industrial security, and jointly creating a fair, just, stable, and orderly market environment to promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a strong and volatile trend in the short term. After the shutdown of some mines, the price has risen, and other lithium carbonate resources from the raw material end will enter the market to supplement supply, having little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Jiangxi mining end and the market's "feedback" sentiment. Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when entering the market at high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Market**: On August 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit. The trading volume was 38,071 lots (-857,538), and the open interest was 317,676 lots (-3,030). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis discount widened. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,000 yuan/ton (+3,700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 80,560 yuan/ton (+3,920), etc. [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 19,389 tons (+560). Social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons (+692), with smelters at 20,999 tons (-959), downstream at 48,159 tons (+2,271), and other sectors at 43,260 tons (-620) [3] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased (840 US dollars/ton, +63), and the price of mica also rose. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,155 yuan/ton (+35) [3] - **Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,500 yuan/ton (+2,600), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,300 yuan/ton (+2,500). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic) also increased [3] Industry News - In July, China's power battery installation volume was 55.9 GWh, a 4.0% decrease from the previous month but a 34.3% increase year - on - year. Among them, ternary battery installation volume was 10.9 GWh (19.6% of the total, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery installation volume was 44.9 GWh (80.9% of the total, a 5.3% decrease from the previous month and a 49.0% increase year - on - year) [3] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. In August, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week [3] - **Demand**: In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased from the previous month, and the 3C product shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose with profit recovery and increased production, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 16,443 tons, an increase of 1,420 tons from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dry average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from a premium to a discount, decreasing by 2,530 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The prices of various types of lithium mica also increased [1]. - **Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton. The average price of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and phosphoric acid lithium iron also showed an upward trend [1]. 3.3 Cobalt Spot Prices - The average price of electrolytic cobalt remained unchanged at 266,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of cobalt sulfate and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 100 yuan/ton and 650 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons on August 7, 2025, an increase of 692 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of downstream increased by 2,271 tons, while the inventory of smelters and others decreased [1]. 3.5 Market News and Demand - Supply Situation - **Market News**: In July, China's imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8% [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of phosphoric acid lithium iron and ternary materials increased, while the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased and that of lithium manganate increased in August. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are relatively loose as profit margins are restored and production has rebounded, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase high prices (View Score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 70,000 yuan/ton, 71,920 yuan/ton, 72,300 yuan/ton, and 72,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,140 yuan/ton, 2,660 yuan/ton, 2,680 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 766,669 lots (+341,310), and the open interest was 289,832 lots (+32,062) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 16,443 tons (+1,420) [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,920 yuan/ton (-1,520 compared to the previous day), the basis changed from a premium to a discount [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 757 US dollars/ton (+9), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 71,100 yuan/ton (+150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 69,000 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt - related products also showed different degrees of changes [1] 3.3 SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - **By Sector**: On August 7, 2025, the inventory of smelters was 20,999 tons (-959 compared to the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 48,159 tons (+2,271), and the inventory of others was 43,260 tons (-620). The total inventory was 142,418 tons (+692) [1] 3.4 Market Information - **Customs Data**: In July, China's total imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [1] - **Market Trends**: On August 7, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The production of lithium carbonate increased last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production of ternary materials increased, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased in August, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries decreased last week, the production of energy - storage batteries increased in August, and the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month in July [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of lithium carbonate on August 6, 2025, highlighting fast - paced sentiment changes and high volatility [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - On August 5, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 67300 yuan/ton, 67680 yuan/ton, 67840 yuan/ton, and 67840 yuan/ton respectively, showing decreases compared to the previous day [3] - The trading volume of the active contract was 437207 lots, an increase of 189309 lots; the open interest was 232062 lots, an increase of 24292 lots; and the inventory was 14443 tons, an increase of 1840 tons [3] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.20 dollars/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide was 65540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the average price of domestic battery - grade fine - powder lithium hydroxide was 70690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [3] Other Lithium - Related Products - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1085 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1710 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3] - The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95% domestic) was 52350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [3] Price Spreads - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 3360 yuan/ton, an increase of 930 yuan/ton [3] - The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5660 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3] Group 3: Industry Situation Supply - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased; the price of spodumene concentrate remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained flat [3] Demand - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the production schedule of ternary materials increased; in August, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the production of lithium cobalt oxide increased [3] - Last week, the production of power batteries decreased; in July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C product shipments were average; in August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 14443 tons, an increase of 1840 tons; the social inventory situation was that smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while the downstream increased inventory [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The fundamentals remain weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the flow of inventory accumulated during the previous price increase [3] - It is recommended that previous short positions be appropriately closed for profit [3]