1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased this week, mainly due to the rising factor strength in the energy and precious metals sectors, while the relative change in the agricultural products sector was not significant. Currently, the energy and precious metals sectors are relatively strong, and the agricultural products sector is relatively weak. Short - term price - volume factors are highly volatile due to macro factors [2]. - The time - series momentum of gold increased significantly, and the position factor of silver continued to rise. The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly, but there was rotation in the cross - section, and the term structure differentiation widened, with copper being relatively strong. The time - series momentum of the black sector showed a slight marginal recovery, and coke was strong in the cross - section. The chemical sector generally increased to varying degrees following the energy sector, but the position factors of glass and soda ash remained relatively neutral. In the agricultural products sector, the short - cycle cross - section differentiation widened, and rapeseed oil had a relatively large marginal increase [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - **Supply, Demand, Inventory, and Spread Factors**: For the first set of data, the supply factor had a weekly return of 1.02% and a monthly return of 1.60%, the demand factor had a weekly return of - 0.39% and a monthly return of - 0.38%, the inventory factor had a weekly return of 1.22% and a monthly return of 1.05%, the spread factor had a weekly return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.59%, and the cumulative return of the major categories was 0.66% for the week and 0.53% for the month. The synthetic factor increased, but the comprehensive signal for the week was short [3][4]. - **Factor Performance in Different Sectors**: In the black sector, the time - series momentum was 0.05, the cross - section momentum was - 0.51, the term structure was 0.06, and the position was 0.19; in the non - ferrous sector, the time - series momentum was 0.56, the cross - section momentum was 0.93, the term structure was - 0.62, and the position was - 0.64; in the energy and chemical sector, the time - series momentum was 0.01, the cross - section momentum was 0.57, the term structure was 0.02, and the position was 0.16; in the agricultural products sector, the time - series momentum was 0.41, the cross - section momentum was - 0.67, the term structure was 0.93, and the position was - 1.2; in the stock index sector, the time - series momentum was 0.31, the cross - section momentum was - 0.38, the term structure was 0.45, and the position was - 0.48; in the precious metals sector, the time - series momentum was 0.34 and the position was 0.09 [5]. 3.2 Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: The supply factor of methanol strengthened by 1.02%, the demand factor decreased by 0.39%, the inventory factor increased by 1.22%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.66%. The comprehensive signal for the week was short. Fundamentally, the domestic methanol plant capacity utilization rate continued to increase, indicating a short signal on the supply side; the start - up of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was slightly flat month - on - month, indicating a neutral signal on the demand side; the inventory of inland methanol enterprises increased significantly during the Spring Festival, indicating a short signal on the inventory side; the spot market prices of methanol in the Lunan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi regions released short signals, and the spread was neutral to short [4]. - **Float Glass**: The demand factor of float glass strengthened by 0.22%, the inventory factor increased by 0.19%, the spread factor weakened by 0.13%, the profit factor decreased by 0.04%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.03%. The comprehensive signal for the week was short. Fundamentally, the start - up of float glass enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, indicating a neutral signal on the supply side; the number of commercial housing transactions in first - tier cities decreased slightly compared with before the Spring Festival, and the short signal on the demand side continued; float glass enterprises had a slight inventory increase, and the short signal on the inventory side strengthened; the after - tax gross profit of float glass made from动力煤 in North China continued to be in a loss, and the profit side remained short; the domestic spot price of float glass released a short signal, and the spread was neutral to short [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply factor of iron ore decreased by 0.37%, the demand factor weakened by 0.33%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.04%, the spread factor increased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.15%. The comprehensive signal for the week remained short. The shipping volume from Brazil increased, and the arrival volume at northern ports increased slightly, changing the supply signal from long to short. The consumption of domestic sintering iron ore powder by steel mills continued to decline, and the long feedback on the demand side further weakened, with the signal remaining neutral. The inventory of sintering iron ore powder in steel mills decreased, and the inventory of Brazilian iron ore at ports decreased, with the long feedback on the inventory side strengthening and the signal remaining neutral. The spot price center increased, and the spread turned to long feedback, with the signal remaining neutral [10]. - **Lead**: The supply factor of lead decreased by 0.37%, the demand factor weakened by 0.33%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.04%, the spread factor increased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.15%. The comprehensive signal for the week remained short. The loss of SMM tax - free recycled lead widened, and the long feedback on the supply side strengthened, with the signal remaining neutral. The LME lead inventory decreased slightly, and the long signal on the inventory side strengthened. The discount of lead ingots widened, and the short feedback on the spread side increased slightly, with the signal remaining short [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the rebound in agricultural products. Currently, the sectors with relatively strong cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black and energy sectors [3]. - The short - term momentum of the black sector has declined, with a decrease in the positions of iron ore and rebar, indicating a more cautious sentiment after the realization of positive factors [3]. - The cross - section of agricultural products has reversed, with the short - term momentum of soybean oil slightly decreasing and that of soybean meal increasing, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - **Sector Performance**: The cross - section of non - ferrous and agricultural sectors is strong, while the black and energy sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum has marginally rebounded, and the decline in silver's positions is small. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has marginally rebounded, and the long - term momentum continues to rise, with copper being strong and alumina being weak. In the black sector, coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - term momentum cross - section of the energy - chemical sector has expanded, and the chemical sector is on the short side of the cross - section [3]. - **Factor Performance**: The supply factor increased by 0.98% last week, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [13]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side signal remains long, the demand side signal turns neutral, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal remains neutral [13]. Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased slightly, the demand factor is long, the inventory factor is short, and the spread factor is long. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15].