s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | FUARI ABRIAL AND | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 1/26 | | 2/11 | 2/12 | 2/13 | 2/24 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -79 | | -93 | -63 | 0 | 32 | 32 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | -79 | | -43 | -13 | 50 | -18 | -68 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -49 | | -93 | -63 | 0 | -68 | -68 | | | | 03-06 | -7 | | -12 | -21 | -24 | -38 | -14 | | | | 04-06 | -7 | | 3 | -5 | -8 | -24 | -16 | | | | 06-09 | 22 | | 31 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 0 | | | | BU主力合约 | 3279 | | 3373 ...

s 加安期货 10/1 11/1 9/1 -100 - -300 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIND L'O HOLOGIA EVEV | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 1/23 | 2/9 | 2/10 | 2/11 | 2/12 | 日度变化 | 間 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) 华东基差(镇江库) | -56 -56 | -54 -4 | -63 -13 | -93 -43 | -63 -13 | 30 30 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -56 | -54 | -63 | -93 | -63 | 30 | | | 基差&月差 | 03-06 | -7 | -6 | -8 | -12 | -21 | -9 | | | | 04-06 | -4 | 7 | -1 | 3 | -5 | -8 | | | | 06-09 | 23 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 26 | -5 | | | | BU主力合约 | 3236 | 3334 | 3343 | 3373 | ...

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/2/10 黑色板块动量小幅下降 商品本周占比变化不大,主要表现贵金 属和有色板块因子强度企稳回升,黑色 和农产品板块受截面轮动影响下降。目 前截面偏强的板块是有色和化工,截面 偏弱的板块是黑色。具体来看,黄金时 序出现动量反转的迹象,逐步企稳,白 银的持仓量小幅回升。有色板块短周期 动量上升,期限结构分化收窄,铝和镍 截面偏强。黑色板块时序动量边际回 落,截面上看螺纹偏弱。能化板块中短 周期动量截面分化扩大,苯乙烯截面偏 强纯碱偏弱。农产品方面,短周期动量 没有发生明显反转,持仓量维持中性以 下。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | -0.11 | 0.64 | | 需求 | 0.00 | -0.45 | | 库存 | -0.17 | 0.01 | | 价差 | -0.02 | 0.73 | | 大类累加 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 0.11%,库存因子下行0.17%,价差因子 走低0.02%,合成因子下行0.13%,本周 综合 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -4 on 1/6 to -31 on 2/4, with a daily change of -12 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 6 on 1/6 to -11 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -14 on 1/6 to -61 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The 03 - 06 spread changed from 10 on 1/6 to 2 on 2/4, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 04 - 06 spread was 8 on 2/4, with no daily change [3] - The 06 - 09 spread changed from 15 on 1/6 to 23 on 2/4, with a daily change of 4 [3] 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract price was 3361 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 52 [3] - The trading volume was 282,920 on 2/4, a decrease of 20,689 (-33%) compared to the previous day [3] - The open interest was 387,150 on 2/4, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous day [3] - The combined volume was 13,580 on 2/4, with no change [3] 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price was 67.0 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 0.8 [3] - Jingbo's asphalt price was 3260 on 2/4, with no change [3] - The non-Jingbo Shandong asphalt price was 3250 on 2/4, an increase of 40 [3] - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price was 3350 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3300 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 405 on 2/4, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 4, 2026 [4] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - No information provided Group 4: Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -52 on 12/31 to -19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -40 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from -82 on 12/31 to -9 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -122 on 12/31 to -29 on 2/3, with a daily change of -50 [3] - 03 - 06 spread changed from -23 on 12/31 to 5 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - 04 - 06 spread changed from -20 on 12/31 to 8 on 2/3, with a daily change of 8 [3] - 06 - 09 spread changed from 5 on 12/31 to 19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -6 [3] Group 5: Futures Contracts - BU main contract price was 3022 on 12/31 and 3309 on 2/3, with a daily change of 10 [3] - Trading volume decreased from 311,277 on 12/31 to 303,609 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 242,358 [3] - Open interest decreased from 426,006 on 12/31 to 381,498 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 16,182 [3] - Aggregate contracts remained at 13,580 from 1/28 to 2/3 [3] Group 6: Spot Prices - Brent crude price was 66.5 on 1/28 and 66.1 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 4.6 [3] - Jingbo spot price was 2980 on 12/31 and 3260 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 20 [3] - Shandong (non-Jingbo) spot price was 2890 on 12/31 and 3210 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 30 [3] - Zhenjiang warehouse spot price remained at 3300 from 2/2 to 2/3 [3] - Foshan warehouse spot price was 2900 on 12/31 and 3250 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 40 [3] Group 7: Profits - Asphalt Ma Rui profit was N/A on 12/31 and 440 on 2/3, a daily increase of 199 [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institution: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Report Date: January 13, 2026 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, there is little change in the long - short ratio of commodities. The factor strength of the precious metals sector remains high, the energy sector rebounds slightly, and the black and agricultural product sectors decline slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the black and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak. The comprehensive signal of each variety has different trends, including long, neutral, and short signals [3]. Summary by Related Content 1. Commodity Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold drops slightly but remains in a relatively strong range, and the trading volume of silver continues to increase marginally [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector continues to rise, and the term structure differentiation expands [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black sector drops slightly marginally. The momentum of rebar decreases, while that of coking coal and coke increases [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum cross - section differentiation of the energy and chemical sector expands, and PTA is at the long end of the cross - section. The term structure of the chemical sector shows differentiation [3][2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Except for corn, the short - cycle momentum of agricultural products drops slightly [3]. 2. Strategy Net Value and Factor Analysis - **General Situation**: In terms of strategy net value, different factors have different trends. For some varieties, the supply factor, demand factor, inventory factor, and spread factor show different degrees of strength or weakness, and the synthetic factors also have corresponding changes. The comprehensive signals include long, neutral, and short [5][13][15]. - **Methanol**: The supply factor strengthens by 0.33% last week, the demand factor rises by 0.05%, the inventory factor increases by 0.04%, the spread factor strengthens by 0.32%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.30%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The import volume of methanol decreases, the demand is neutral, the inventory releases a long signal, and the spread is neutral to short [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply factor has a 0.00% return last week and 0.39% monthly return, the demand factor is - 0.04% last week and - 0.07% monthly return, the inventory factor is 0.00% last week and 0.97% monthly return, the spread factor is 0.00% last week and 1.79% monthly return, and the synthetic factor is - 0.01% last week and 0.84% monthly return. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is short, the demand is neutral, the inventory is long, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Lead**: The demand factor weakens by 0.04% last week, the synthetic factor drops by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. The supply is short, the inventory turns neutral, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor strengthens by 1.03% last week, the demand factor rises by 1.09%, the inventory factor weakens by 0.02%, the profit factor drops by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.81%. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is neutral, the demand turns neutral, the inventory is long, and the profit is short [15]. 3. Performance Data | Variety | Last Week's Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | General (First Table) | 0.33 (Supply), 0.05 (Demand), 0.04 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.30 (Synthetic) | 0.38 (Supply), 0.48 (Demand), 0.43 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.60 (Synthetic) | | General (Second Table) | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | 2.13 (Supply), 2.96 (Demand), 0.39 (Inventory), 0.25 (Spread), 0.14 (Profit), 2.13 (Synthetic) | | General (Third Table) | 0.00 (Supply), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.51 (Spread), 0.24 (Synthetic) | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.68 (Inventory), 0.83 (Spread), 0.18 (Synthetic) | | Iron Ore | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.04 (Demand), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.00 (Spread), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | 0.39 (Supply), - 0.07 (Demand), 0.97 (Inventory), 1.79 (Spread), 0.84 (Synthetic) | | Lead | - 0.04 (Demand), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | | Float Glass | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | 4. Sector Momentum and Other Data | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 1.46 | 0.33 | 1.1 | 0.33 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.85 | - 2.49 | 0.83 | 0.92 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.38 | 0 | 1.03 | 1.46 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.6 | 0.81 | 1.83 | - 1.82 | | Stock Index | 0.06 | 0.78 | - 0.25 | 1.37 | | Precious Metals | 1.01 | Not provided | Not provided | 0.56 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt - related indicators such as basis, spreads, contract prices, trading volumes, and profits. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis values for different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) and their changes from 12/5 to 1/6 are presented. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) was 42 on 12/5 and - 4 on 1/6, with a daily change of - 21 on 1/6 [2]. - **Spread**: Spreads between different contract months (01 - 03, 02 - 03, 03 - 06) are shown. For instance, the 01 - 03 spread was - 25 on 12/5 and - 51 on 1/6, with a daily change of - 8 on 1/6 [2]. 3.2 Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (02)**: The price of the BU main contract (02) was 2948 on 12/5 and 3144 on 1/6, with a daily increase of 11 on 1/6. The trading volume on 1/6 was 505629, a decrease of 182313 from the previous day, and the open interest was 466983, an increase of 2031 [2]. - **Combined Contracts**: The combined contract quantity increased from 4690 on 12/5 to 11260 on 1/6, with an increase of 3000 [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude oil was 63.8 on 12/5 and 61.8 on 1/6, with an increase of 1.0 on 1/6 [2]. - **Asphalt Spot**: Spot prices for different regions (Jingbo, Shandong non - Jingbo, Zhenjiang, Foshan) are given. For example, the price of Shandong (non - Jingbo) asphalt was 2910 on 12/5 and 3060 on 1/6, with a decrease of 10 on 1/6 [2]. 3.4 Profit - **Asphalt - Marey Profit**: The asphalt - Marey profit was 131 on 12/5 and 468 on 1/6, with a decrease of 48 on 1/6 [2]. 3.5 Weekly Changes - Weekly changes in various indicators are provided, such as a 64 change in an unnamed indicator, 124 changes in some other indicators, and - 8 change in the 01 - 03 spread [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on asphalt including basis, spreads, futures contract prices, trading volume, open interest, spot prices, and profit. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basis and Spreads - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) 01 - 03 changed from 48 - 28 on 12/4 to 17 - 43 on 1/5 with a daily change of 14; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 88 to - 33 with a daily change of 49; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from - 2 to - 63 [3]. - **Spreads**: The 02 - 03 spread changed from - 17 to - 8; the 03 - 06 spread changed from - 37 to 16 with a daily change of 39 [3]. Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (02)**: The price of the BU main contract (02) increased from 2952 on 12/4 to 3133 on 1/5, with a daily increase of 111 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume increased from 290157 on 12/4 to 687942 on 1/5, with a daily increase of 376665 [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest increased from 429348 on 12/4 to 464952 on 1/5, with a daily increase of 38946 [3]. Spot Prices - **Jingbo**: The spot price of Jingbo increased from 2950 on 12/4 to 3100 on 1/5, with an increase of 120 [3]. - **Shandong (non - Jingbo)**: The spot price increased from 2920 on 12/4 to 3070 on 1/5, with an increase of 180 [3]. - **Zhenjiang Warehouse**: The spot price increased from 3040 on 12/4 to 3100 on 1/5, with an increase of 160 [3]. - **Foshan Warehouse**: The spot price increased from 2950 on 12/4 to 3070 on 1/5, with an increase of 170 [3]. Profit - **Asphalt Marrow Profit**: The asphalt Marrow profit increased from 163 to 513 [3]. Weekly Changes - Various indicators showed weekly changes such as 82, 82, 115, - 8, - 1, 41, 125, 301769, 22249, 4080, - 1.2, 160, 210, 210, 240, 192, 2025 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in liquefied gas futures prices, with the December closing average at 4188 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton or 2.79% from the previous month [1] - The international crude oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI averaging $57.87/barrel, down $1.61/barrel or -2.70%, and Brent averaging $61.64/barrel, down $2.02/barrel or -3.18% [1] - Domestic liquefied gas supply in December was 2.1686 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.25% month-on-month but an increase of 5.49% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The basis in South China strengthened significantly to 405 yuan/ton, expanding by 239 yuan/ton month-on-month, primarily due to the sharp decline in futures prices [2] - The average daily trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly to 19,245 lots, with the average daily open interest at 57,544 lots, down 20,880 lots month-on-month [2] - The outlook for January predicts weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices, with chemical processing profits remaining in substantial losses, likely exerting negative pressure on demand [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis and Spreads - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) decreased from 2 on 11/20 to -2915 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2916 and a weekly change of -2931 [4][12]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) decreased from 42 on 11/20 to -2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2986 and a weekly change of -3081 [4][12]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased from 22 on 11/20 to -2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2886 and a weekly change of -3031 [4][12]. - The 01 - 03 spread decreased from -42 on 11/20 to -30 on 12/22, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of -5 [4][12]. - The 02 - 03 spread increased from -27 on 11/20 to -12 on 12/22, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10 [4][12]. - The 03 - 06 spread increased from -31 on 11/20 to -23 on 12/22, with a daily change of 7 and a weekly change of 21 [4][12]. 3.2. BU Main Contract (02) - The price of the BU main contract (02) increased from 3058 on 11/20 to 2995 on 12/22, with a daily change of 86 and a weekly change of 101 [4][12]. - The trading volume increased from 439,201 on 11/20 to 572,497 on 12/22, with a daily change of 105,545 and a weekly change of 2,082 [4][12]. - The open interest increased from 330,157 on 11/20 to 486,961 on 12/22, with a daily change of 11,963 and a weekly change of 14,856 [4][12]. - The contract value remained at 4,180 from 12/16 to 12/22, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.3. Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil increased from 63.4 on 11/20 to 60.5 on 12/22, with a daily change of 0.6 and a weekly change of -0.1 [4][12]. - The price of Jingbo asphalt decreased from 3020 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2950 and a weekly change of -2950 [4][12]. - The price of Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt decreased from 2980 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2830 and a weekly change of -2830 [4][12]. - The price of Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt decreased from 3100 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2900 and a weekly change of -2980 [4][12]. - The price of Foshan warehouse asphalt decreased from 3080 on 11/20 to 0 on 12/22, with a daily change of -2800 and a weekly change of -2930 [4][12]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt Marrow profit decreased from 223 on 11/20 to 425 on 12/22, with a daily change of -21 and a weekly change of 4 [4][12].