周度变化 64 124 124 -8 -5 34 106 40135 26728 3000 -0.2 130 170 230 230 124 2025 -200 -300 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 42 | -68 | -52 | 17 | -4 | -21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/5 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/5 | 1/6 | MIVULLA HOLORIA FAE 日度变化 | 間 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 92 | -118 | -82 | -33 | 6 | 39 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | -18 | -138 | -122 | -63 | -14 | 49 | | | | 01-03 | -25 | -43 | -57 | -43 | -51 | -8 | | | | 02-03 | -14 | -7 | -14 | -5 | -12 | -7 | | | | 03-06 | -41 | - ...

沥青早报 | | | | | | | | MIZULU POLOGIAL EVE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/4 | 12/29 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/5 | 日度变化 | 間 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) 01-03 | 48 -28 | -68 -35 | -68 -43 | -52 -57 | 17 -43 | રવ 14 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 88 | -118 | -118 | -82 | -33 | 49 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -2 | -178 | -138 | -122 | -63 | ਦੇਰੇ | | | 基差&月差 | | | | | | | | | | | 02-03 | -17 | -4 | -7 | -14 | - R | g | | | | 03-06 | -37 | -25 | -24 | -23 | 16 | 39 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 2952 | 3008 | 3038 | ...

2025年12月液化气期货主力合约收盘价大幅走低，本月收盘均价在4188元/吨，环比上月4308元/吨，大 跌120元/吨或2.79%。本月成本端走低且国内外供应端相对充裕共同牵制期货价格大幅走低。 基差方面，本月华南期现基差大幅走强至405元/吨，环比上月扩大239元/吨。本月期货价格大幅下跌是 导致基差走强的主要因素。本月仓单数量呈增长态势，也给盘面有一定的压制。 持仓量分所，本月主力合约日均成交量19245手，大幅减少19245手，12月日均持仓量为57544手，环比 减少20880手。液化气期货行情弱势运行，交易活跃度下降。 后市预测：1月份国际原油价格将弱势震荡，成本端驱动性不足。化工深加工利润仍处于大面积亏损， 料对需求形成利空压制，国际市场供应相对宽裕，预计1月期货价格将弱势运行。(金联创液化气分析 师：石琳琳) 12月份，国际原油价格呈现先抑后扬走势，月度均价环比下跌。市场关注美乌谈判以及乌克兰和平协议 前景，地缘局势风险溢价消退以及投资者对俄油供应前景持观望态度导致油价承压。据金联创监测：本 月WTI均价为57.87美元/桶，环比下跌1.61美元/桶，或-2.70%；布伦特月均价为61.64 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 | | 指标 | 11/20 | 12/16 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/22 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 2 | 16 | -42 | | -2915 | -2916 | -2931 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 42 | 86 | -25 | -9 | -2995 | -2986 | -3081 | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | 22 | 36 | -132 | -109 | -2995 | -2886 | -3031 | | | 01-03 | -42 | -25 | -29 | -27 | -30 | -3 | -5 | | | 02-03 | -27 | -22 | -17 | -15 | -12 | 3 | 10 | | | 03-06 | -31 | -44 | -20 | -24 | -23 | 7 | 21 | | 载请 | BU主力合约(02) | 3058 | ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | WIZUT OFFSTORING CULT . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 11/11 | 12/5 | 12/9 | 12/10 | 12/11 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -30 | 42 | -43 | -40 | -60 | -20 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 100 | 92 | 97 | 100 | 20 | -80 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 80 | -18 | 17 | 20 | 0 | -20 | | | | 01-03 | -40 | -25 | -35 | -36 | -28 | 8 | | | | 02-03 | -26 | -14 | -20 | -18 | -13 | 5 | | | | 03-06 | -30 | -41 | -42 | -42 | -39 | 3 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 3050 | 2948 | 294 ...

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,808 yuan/ton to 3,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 2.0%, while the spot price in East China remained stable at 3,845 yuan/ton The basis (spot minus futures) was -39 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper discount and an expanded premium of the futures market relative to the spot, possibly driven by the capital side [2]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 353,300 lots to 317,468 lots, a decrease of 35,832 lots or 10.14%, suggesting that some long or short positions were closed The trading volume increased significantly from 164,315 lots to 282,100 lots, an increase of 117,785 lots or 71.68%, indicating increased market trading activity, but the decrease in open interest implies that short - term speculative behavior is dominant [2]. *** Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 67.63%, with the oil - based operating rate at 76.23% and the coal - based operating rate at 54.29% However, the profit structure was divided The oil - based profit (such as ethylene oxidation method) generally deteriorated, for example, the profit of ethylene - SHELL oxidation method decreased from - 799 yuan/ton to - 889 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan, indicating rising crude oil cost pressure The coal - based profit improved from 112.46 yuan/ton to 187.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan, indicating that the decrease in coal cost supported coal - based production capacity [2]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no change, reflecting stable terminal demand without significant improvement or deterioration The high load of the polyester sector supported ethylene glycol consumption, but the low loom load indicated weak terminal textile demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 661,000 tons to 732,000 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons or 10.74% The inventory in Zhangjiagang increased from 215,000 tons to 275,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 27.91%, indicating obvious inventory accumulation, increased port arrivals or insufficient shipments, and increased inventory pressure [3]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the upside limited by inventory pressure and the deterioration of oil - based profits On the supply side, the operating rate is stable but the profit is divided, with rising crude oil costs suppressing oil - based production capacity and falling coal costs benefiting coal - based production On the demand side, the high load of polyester provides support, but the low loom load and continuous inventory accumulation highlight the pressure of loose supply - demand The arrival of foreign goods is not mentioned to have changed, but the inventory increase implies potential import pressure Overall, the short - term rise of futures is driven by active trading, but the high inventory and stable demand in the fundamentals will limit the upside space, and the price may fluctuate in the bottom range [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily and weekly changes in various indicators of the asphalt market, including basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, prices of different grades, and refinery profits, along with the price of Brent crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Basis and Spreads - **Basis**: On November 12, the Shandong basis (+80)(Hongrun) was -2983, the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was -3063, and the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was -3063, all with a daily change of -13 [3]. - **Spreads**: The 12 - 01 spread was 0 with a daily change of -1; the 12 - 03 spread was -47 with a daily change of -8; the 01 - 02 spread was -19 with a daily change of -5 [3]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the BU main contract (01) on November 12 was 237,856, a decrease of 76,306 (-5%) compared to the previous day [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on November 12 was 345,731, an increase of 6,060 (8%) compared to the previous day [3]. Prices - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price on November 12 was 3063, an increase of 13 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The price on November 12 was 65.2, an increase of 1.1 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Asphalt Prices**: On November 10, the prices of Jingbo, Hongrun, Zhenjiang warehouse, and Foshan warehouse were 2990, 2950, 3170, and 3230 respectively [3]. Profits - **Asphalt Ma Rui Profit**: On November 12, it was 34, a decrease of 34 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Ma Rui - type Refinery Comprehensive Profit**: On November 12, it was -796, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous day [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the rebound in agricultural products. Currently, the sectors with relatively strong cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black and energy sectors [3]. - The short - term momentum of the black sector has declined, with a decrease in the positions of iron ore and rebar, indicating a more cautious sentiment after the realization of positive factors [3]. - The cross - section of agricultural products has reversed, with the short - term momentum of soybean oil slightly decreasing and that of soybean meal increasing, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - **Sector Performance**: The cross - section of non - ferrous and agricultural sectors is strong, while the black and energy sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum has marginally rebounded, and the decline in silver's positions is small. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has marginally rebounded, and the long - term momentum continues to rise, with copper being strong and alumina being weak. In the black sector, coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - term momentum cross - section of the energy - chemical sector has expanded, and the chemical sector is on the short side of the cross - section [3]. - **Factor Performance**: The supply factor increased by 0.98% last week, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [13]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side signal remains long, the demand side signal turns neutral, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal remains neutral [13]. Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased slightly, the demand factor is long, the inventory factor is short, and the spread factor is long. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 6 on 10/30 with a daily change of 10; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 106 with no daily change; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 126 with a daily change of 20 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was 15 on 10/30 with a daily change of -2; the 12 - 03 spread was -6 with a daily change of -7; the 01 - 02 spread was -5 with a daily change of -1 [3]. - The BU main contract (01) was 3254 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day [3]. 2. Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts - The trading volume on 10/30 was 212,219, a decrease of 21,636 (-9%) compared to the previous day; the open interest was 338,671, a decrease of 1,392; the warehouse receipts were 9,120, a decrease of 800 [3]. 3. Spot Prices - Brent crude oil was $64.9 on 10/30, up $0.5 from the previous day [3]. - Jingbo's spot price was 3,260 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day; Hongrun's was 3,180, down 10; Zhenjiang warehouse's was 3,360, down 20; Foshan warehouse's remained at 3,380 [3]. 4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 251 on 10/30, down 33 from the previous day; the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 693, down 26 [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU contracts on October 10, 2025, showed varying degrees of decline compared to previous days, with the BU01 contract dropping by 57 to 3248, and the BU11 contract down 47 to 3328 [4]. - The trading volume on October 10 was 323,321, an increase of 107,262 from the previous day and 47,323 from the previous week [4]. - The open interest on October 10 was 322,594, an increase of 2,486 from the previous day but a decrease of 71,983 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - The market prices of asphalt in different regions showed different trends, with the Shandong market price remaining unchanged at 3490, the North China market price dropping by 30 to 3560, and the Northeast market price falling by 10 to 3800 [4]. - The basis and monthly spreads of asphalt also changed, with the Shandong basis (+80) increasing by 17 to 172, and the 10 - 11 monthly spread rising by 56 to 112 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt - Brent crack spread on October 10 was 98, an increase of 51 from the previous day but a decrease of 42 from the previous week [4]. - The asphalt - Marrow profit on October 10 was 22, an increase of 46 from the previous day but a decrease of 38 from the previous week [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries on October 10 was 449, an increase of 36 from the previous day but a decrease of 88 from the previous week [4]. - The comprehensive profit of Marrow - type refineries on October 10 was 833, an increase of 39 from the previous day but a decrease of 25 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China on October 10 was - 225, a decrease of 2 from the previous day and 49 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit from Singapore to South China on October 10 was - 960, a decrease of 3 from the previous day and 13 from the previous week [4]. Related Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on October 10 was 65.2, a decrease of 1.0 from the previous day but an increase of 0.7 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of gasoline in Shandong on October 10 was 7433, a decrease of 25 from the previous day and 84 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of diesel in Shandong on October 10 was 3803, an increase of 60 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of residue oil in Shandong on October 10 was 3743, a decrease of 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week [4].