国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/2/10 黑色板块动量小幅下降 商品本周占比变化不大,主要表现贵金 属和有色板块因子强度企稳回升,黑色 和农产品板块受截面轮动影响下降。目 前截面偏强的板块是有色和化工,截面 偏弱的板块是黑色。具体来看,黄金时 序出现动量反转的迹象,逐步企稳,白 银的持仓量小幅回升。有色板块短周期 动量上升,期限结构分化收窄,铝和镍 截面偏强。黑色板块时序动量边际回 落,截面上看螺纹偏弱。能化板块中短 周期动量截面分化扩大,苯乙烯截面偏 强纯碱偏弱。农产品方面,短周期动量 没有发生明显反转,持仓量维持中性以 下。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | -0.11 | 0.64 | | 需求 | 0.00 | -0.45 | | 库存 | -0.17 | 0.01 | | 价差 | -0.02 | 0.73 | | 大类累加 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 0.11%,库存因子下行0.17%,价差因子 走低0.02%,合成因子下行0.13%,本周 综合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities changed little this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, the energy sector declined slightly, and the agricultural products sector remained in a neutral and weak pattern. The precious metals sector was strong in the cross - section, while the black and agricultural products sectors were weak [3] - For methanol, the supply factor strengthened by 1.05% last week, the inventory factor increased by 1.12%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.83%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [5] - For iron ore, the supply factor increased by 0.05% last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.06%, and the comprehensive factor decreased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from neutral to short [14][15] - For aluminum, the supply factor increased by 0.74% last week, the demand factor strengthened by 0.88%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.19%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.32%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained short [15] - For CTA, the supply factor weakened by 0.40% last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.56%, the profit factor decreased by 0.61%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.31%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The factor strength of precious metals remained high, the energy sector declined slightly, and the agricultural products sector remained in a neutral and weak pattern. The precious metals sector was strong in the cross - section, while the black and agricultural products sectors were weak. Gold's time - series momentum increased slightly, and the trading volume of silver continued to increase marginally. The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased, and the differentiation of the term structure narrowed. The time - series momentum of the black sector declined marginally, with rebar being strong and coke being short in the cross - section. The short - cycle momentum of the energy - chemical sector showed less cross - sectional differentiation, and the overall time - series momentum decreased. For agricultural products, the short - cycle momentum of most varieties did not reverse significantly, and the trading volume of palm oil increased [3] Methanol - Last week, the supply factor of methanol strengthened by 1.05%, the inventory factor increased by 1.12%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.83%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. In terms of fundamental factors, the arrival volume of imported methanol increased, the strength of the long position on the supply side weakened and became neutral; the operating rates of the glacial acetic acid and MTBE industries increased, indicating a long position on the demand side; the inventory of domestic production enterprises decreased, indicating a long position on the inventory side; the spot prices in the domestic and coastal methanol markets both sent short signals, indicating a short position on the spread side [5] Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor of iron ore increased by 0.05%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.06%, and the comprehensive factor decreased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from neutral to short. The shipping volume from BHP increased significantly, and the short signal on the supply side was slightly enhanced, remaining neutral. The daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was basically flat. The demand - side signal changed from neutral to short. The inventory of domestic sintering ore powder in steel mills and the inventory of imported trade ore in ports both increased, and the inventory side turned to a short feedback, remaining neutral. The spot price center moved down, and the long feedback on the spread side further weakened, remaining neutral [14][15] Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor of aluminum increased by 0.74%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.88%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.19%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.32%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained short. The loss of SMM recycled lead narrowed slightly, and the strength of the short signal on the supply side further increased. The inventory of registered and non - registered warehouse receipts in the SHFE decreased, and the long feedback on the inventory side increased, remaining neutral. The SMM lead ingot price decreased, the price center of recycled lead moved down, and the short feedback on the spread side increased, turning to short [15] CTA - Last week, the supply factor of CTA weakened by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.56%, the profit factor decreased by 0.61%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.31%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. In terms of fundamental factors, the capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises was flat month - on - month, indicating a neutral supply side; the number of commercial housing transactions in second - tier cities decreased, indicating a slightly short demand side; the inventory of Chinese float glass enterprises decreased slightly, but the contribution of this factor was high, and the long position on the inventory side continued; the after - tax gross profit of float glass produced by various processes continued to be in a loss, indicating a short position on the profit side [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institution: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Report Date: January 13, 2026 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, there is little change in the long - short ratio of commodities. The factor strength of the precious metals sector remains high, the energy sector rebounds slightly, and the black and agricultural product sectors decline slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the black and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak. The comprehensive signal of each variety has different trends, including long, neutral, and short signals [3]. Summary by Related Content 1. Commodity Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold drops slightly but remains in a relatively strong range, and the trading volume of silver continues to increase marginally [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector continues to rise, and the term structure differentiation expands [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black sector drops slightly marginally. The momentum of rebar decreases, while that of coking coal and coke increases [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum cross - section differentiation of the energy and chemical sector expands, and PTA is at the long end of the cross - section. The term structure of the chemical sector shows differentiation [3][2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Except for corn, the short - cycle momentum of agricultural products drops slightly [3]. 2. Strategy Net Value and Factor Analysis - **General Situation**: In terms of strategy net value, different factors have different trends. For some varieties, the supply factor, demand factor, inventory factor, and spread factor show different degrees of strength or weakness, and the synthetic factors also have corresponding changes. The comprehensive signals include long, neutral, and short [5][13][15]. - **Methanol**: The supply factor strengthens by 0.33% last week, the demand factor rises by 0.05%, the inventory factor increases by 0.04%, the spread factor strengthens by 0.32%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.30%. The comprehensive signal this week is long. The import volume of methanol decreases, the demand is neutral, the inventory releases a long signal, and the spread is neutral to short [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply factor has a 0.00% return last week and 0.39% monthly return, the demand factor is - 0.04% last week and - 0.07% monthly return, the inventory factor is 0.00% last week and 0.97% monthly return, the spread factor is 0.00% last week and 1.79% monthly return, and the synthetic factor is - 0.01% last week and 0.84% monthly return. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is short, the demand is neutral, the inventory is long, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Lead**: The demand factor weakens by 0.04% last week, the synthetic factor drops by 0.01%, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. The supply is short, the inventory turns neutral, and the spread is neutral [13]. - **Float Glass**: The supply factor strengthens by 1.03% last week, the demand factor rises by 1.09%, the inventory factor weakens by 0.02%, the profit factor drops by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor rises by 0.81%. The comprehensive signal is neutral. The supply is neutral, the demand turns neutral, the inventory is long, and the profit is short [15]. 3. Performance Data | Variety | Last Week's Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | General (First Table) | 0.33 (Supply), 0.05 (Demand), 0.04 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.30 (Synthetic) | 0.38 (Supply), 0.48 (Demand), 0.43 (Inventory), 0.32 (Spread), 0.60 (Synthetic) | | General (Second Table) | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | 2.13 (Supply), 2.96 (Demand), 0.39 (Inventory), 0.25 (Spread), 0.14 (Profit), 2.13 (Synthetic) | | General (Third Table) | 0.00 (Supply), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.51 (Spread), 0.24 (Synthetic) | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.68 (Inventory), 0.83 (Spread), 0.18 (Synthetic) | | Iron Ore | 0.00 (Supply), - 0.04 (Demand), 0.00 (Inventory), 0.00 (Spread), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | 0.39 (Supply), - 0.07 (Demand), 0.97 (Inventory), 1.79 (Spread), 0.84 (Synthetic) | | Lead | - 0.04 (Demand), - 0.01 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | | Float Glass | 1.03 (Supply), 1.09 (Demand), - 0.02 (Inventory), - 0.21 (Profit), 0.81 (Synthetic) | Not fully detailed | 4. Sector Momentum and Other Data | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 1.46 | 0.33 | 1.1 | 0.33 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.85 | - 2.49 | 0.83 | 0.92 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.38 | 0 | 1.03 | 1.46 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.6 | 0.81 | 1.83 | - 1.82 | | Stock Index | 0.06 | 0.78 | - 0.25 | 1.37 | | Precious Metals | 1.01 | Not provided | Not provided | 0.56 | [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were relatively strong in cross - section, the black and energy sectors were above the neutral range, and the agricultural products sector was relatively weak [3]. - In the methanol strategy, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%, and the comprehensive signal this week is long. In the float glass strategy, the synthetic factor increased by 1.38% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. In the iron ore strategy, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week remains neutral. In the lead strategy, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week changed from short to long [5][8][10] Section Summaries Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were strong in cross - section, agricultural products were weak. Gold's time - series momentum rose slightly, silver's position increased more marginally. In the non - ferrous sector, short - cycle momentum recovered, and the term structure differentiation narrowed. In the black sector, time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. In the energy and chemical sector, short - cycle momentum factors recovered. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrowed [3] Performance of Different Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%. The import methanol arrival volume and domestic road transport prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased on the demand side; the methanol port continued to destock on the inventory side; the domestic methanol spot price fell while the port price was strong on the spread side [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly long, the inventory side turns neutral, and the profit side remains short [8] - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the inventory factor declined by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. The supply side turns to short feedback but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback weakens and turns to neutral, the inventory side's signal turns from short to neutral, and the spread side's short feedback weakens slightly and the signal remains neutral [10] - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. The supply side signal turns from short to neutral, the inventory side signal turns from neutral to long, and the spread side signal turns from short to long [10] Data Tables - **Commodity Factors Performance Table**: It shows the last week's and current month's returns of supply, demand, inventory, spread, and the cumulative returns of major categories [4] - **Factor Index Table for Different Sectors**: It presents the time - series momentum, cross - section momentum, term structure, and position volume of black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, agricultural products, stock index, and precious metals sectors [6]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures Research Institute's Financial Engineering Group, dated December 23, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly, with the factor strength of precious metals remaining high and that of the agricultural products sector decreasing slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors are relatively strong in the cross - section, while the agricultural products sector is relatively weak [3] Summary by Commodity Category Overall Commodity Situation - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals factor strength remained high, and the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The relatively strong cross - sectional sectors are precious metals and non - ferrous metals, while the agricultural products sector is relatively weak [3] Specific Commodity Analysis Metals - **Precious Metals**: The time - series momentum of gold increased slightly, and the marginal increase in silver's trading volume was greater, remaining in a relatively strong range. The divergence at both ends of the cross - section widened [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, the divergence of the term structure narrowed, and both copper and tin were relatively strong in the cross - section [3] - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. The trading volumes of iron ore and rebar remained neutral, while those of coking coal and coke remained at a high level [3] Energy and Chemicals - The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemicals sector rebounded, and soda ash was at the short end of the cross - section [3] Agricultural Products - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals narrowed. Although the downward trend at the time - series momentum level weakened marginally, the trading volume was at a recent low [3] Strategy Net Worth and Fundamental Factors Methanol - Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.02%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. On the fundamental factors, import methanol arrivals and domestic road freight prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased, sending a short signal on the demand side; methanol ports continued to destock last week, and the long signal on the inventory side continued; the spot price of inland methanol fell, while that of port methanol was relatively strong, and the spread side was neutral [5] Float Glass - Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, and the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%. The synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short. On the fundamental factors, the start - up of float glass enterprises was flat month - on - month, the supply side was neutral; the number of second - tier city commercial housing transactions increased, the demand side was slightly long; float glass enterprises in Hebei and Hubei slightly accumulated inventory, the long strength on the inventory side weakened and turned neutral; the daily after - tax gross profit loss of pipeline - gas - made float glass increased, and the short signal on the profit side continued [8] Iron Ore - Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. This week, the comprehensive signal remained neutral. The supply side turned to a short feedback but the signal remained neutral; the demand side's long feedback weakened and the signal turned neutral; the inventory side's signal changed from short to neutral; the short feedback on the spread side weakened slightly and the signal remained neutral [10] Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. This week, the comprehensive signal changed from short to long. The supply side signal changed from short to neutral; the inventory side signal changed from neutral to long; the spread side signal changed from short to long [10]

Group 1 - The egg-laying chicken farming industry has entered a capacity clearing cycle, but the process will be prolonged due to the enhanced risk resistance of large-scale farming entities [1] - Since 2017, the egg-laying industry has experienced two significant phases of excessive culling, occurring in 2017 and 2020, driven by profit pressures [1] - In 2025, the level of losses in the egg-laying industry is expected to be comparable to that of 2020, with cumulative reductions in culling age approaching levels seen in 2017, yet the stock remains high [1] Group 2 - The market's supply and demand expectations influence the shape of the term structure, transitioning from a steep Contango to a flat Contango and eventually to a Back structure as prices reverse from the bottom [2] - The current egg futures market is in a Contango state, with the steepening trend due to hesitance in the culling process, and this low-near, high-far structure is expected to continue until supply-demand rebalancing occurs [2] - The overall industry is in a slow clearing phase, influenced by multiple factors including culling pace, restocking willingness, and market expectations, which require ongoing monitoring [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - For the CTA strategy, the signals vary across different commodities. For example, the comprehensive signal for methanol is short, for glass is long, for iron ore changes from long to short, and for lead remains short [3][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Commodities in General - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, the demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. The comprehensive signal this week is short [3]. Black Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the black sector decreased. The term structure shows narrowing differentiation. The positions of coking coal and coke remained low, and the short - cycle momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long [9]. Non - Ferrous Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed. Copper and zinc are relatively strong, and tin is relatively weak in cross - section [3]. - The time - series momentum of gold declined, the position of silver remained high, and the cross - section differentiation at both ends widened [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The long - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector decreased, and ethylene glycol is at the short end in cross - section [3]. Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - section differentiation of oil and meal narrowed, and the position of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Glass - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long. The production of float glass enterprises, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities, and the continuous destocking of float glass enterprises all release long signals. The spot price of glass is neutral, and the profit of glass remains short [9]. Iron Ore - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal changes from long to short. The cumulative year - on - year decline of iron ore production has narrowed, the port daily dredging volume has decreased, the inventory of port iron ore and trade ore has accumulated, and the spot price center has moved down [11]. Lead - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week the comprehensive signal remains short. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, the inventory of lead has decreased, the position of the main contract of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the spread of lead has moved down [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the black sector and the rebound in agricultural products. Currently, the sectors with relatively strong cross - section are non - ferrous metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak ones are black and energy sectors [3]. - The short - term momentum of the black sector has declined, with a decrease in the positions of iron ore and rebar, indicating a more cautious sentiment after the realization of positive factors [3]. - The cross - section of agricultural products has reversed, with the short - term momentum of soybean oil slightly decreasing and that of soybean meal increasing, and soybean meal is relatively strong in the short - term cross - section [3]. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Conditions - **Sector Performance**: The cross - section of non - ferrous and agricultural sectors is strong, while the black and energy sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum has marginally rebounded, and the decline in silver's positions is small. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has marginally rebounded, and the long - term momentum continues to rise, with copper being strong and alumina being weak. In the black sector, coking coal is relatively strong in the cross - section. The short - term momentum cross - section of the energy - chemical sector has expanded, and the chemical sector is on the short side of the cross - section [3]. - **Factor Performance**: The supply factor increased by 0.98% last week, the demand factor decreased by 0.64%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.48%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.62%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased by 0.49%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.47%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.2%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short [13]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side signal remains long, the demand side signal turns neutral, the inventory side signal remains neutral, and the spread side signal remains neutral [13]. Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: The supply factor increased slightly, the demand factor is long, the inventory factor is short, and the spread factor is long. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [15]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The supply side is neutral to short, the demand side is long, the inventory side is short, and the spread side is long [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities changed little this week. The factor strength of the non - ferrous sector rebounded, while that of the precious metals and agricultural products sectors declined. The non - ferrous sector was relatively strong in the cross - section, while the chemical and precious metals sectors were relatively weak [2]. - Different commodities have different trends in strategy net value and fundamental factors. For example, in the methanol market, the comprehensive signal was long this week; in the float glass market, it was neutral; in the iron ore market, it remained neutral; and in the Shanghai lead market, it remained short [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.11%, the demand factor increased by 0.13%, the inventory factor increased by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.19%. The comprehensive signal this week is long [3][4]. - **Fundamental Factors**: High import volume of methanol signaled a short on the supply side; increased开工负荷 of acetic acid and MTBE plants signaled a long on the demand side; methanol inventory in East China ports signaled a long on the inventory side; the spot price of inland methanol signaled a short, and the East China basis signaled a long, with the spread side being neutral to short [4]. Float Glass - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.06%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, the profit factor increased by 0.06%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.05%. The comprehensive signal this week is neutral [7]. - **Fundamental Factors**: The capacity utilization rate of float glass remained flat, so the supply side remained neutral; the increase in the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities signaled a long on the demand side; continuous inventory accumulation of domestic float glass enterprises signaled a short on the inventory side; the continuous slight decline in the spot market and the stable recovery of the futures price made the spread side change from a strong short to neutral [7]. Iron Ore - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, each factor remained flat compared with the previous week, and the comprehensive signal this week remained neutral [9]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Decreased shipments from FMG and Rio Tinto and reduced arrivals at northern ports strengthened the long feedback on the supply side; decreased daily port clearance volume and steel mill consumption of domestic sintered ore powder maintained the short signal on the demand side; inventory accumulation at major national ports slightly strengthened the short feedback on the inventory side; the increase in the spot price center strengthened the long feedback on the spread side, and both the inventory and spread sides maintained a neutral signal [9]. Shanghai Lead - **Strategy Net Value**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.45%, the demand factor weakened by 0.44%, the spread factor decreased by 0.57%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.38%. The comprehensive signal this week remained short [9]. - **Fundamental Factors**: Reduced losses of SMM tax - free recycled lead and a lower ratio of waste battery prices to recycled refined lead prices maintained the short signal on the supply side; inventory reduction in LME and SHFE made the inventory side turn to a long feedback, maintaining a neutral signal; the narrowing of the near - far month discount and the expansion of the spot discount weakened the short feedback on the spread side, and the signal turned to neutral [9]. Sector - Specific Momentum and Structure - **Momentum and Structure Data**: The report provides momentum and structure data for different sectors, including the egg - related, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, agricultural products, equity index, and precious metals sectors. For example, the non - ferrous sector had a momentum sequence value of 0.06, a momentum cross - section value of 0.93, a term structure value of - 2.2, and a position - holding volume value of - 0.64 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The multi - short ranking of commodities has changed significantly this week, with the divergence between energy and non - ferrous metals at the two ends increasing. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are non - ferrous metals and black metals, while the relatively weak ones are energy and agricultural products [2]. - The overall signals of different commodities vary. For methanol, the comprehensive signal turns neutral; for float glass, the comprehensive signal is neutral; for iron ore, the comprehensive signal turns bearish; for Shanghai lead, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overall Situation - The divergence within the non - ferrous metals sector has increased. The time - series momentum factor of the non - ferrous metals sector remains high, but the position factors of varieties such as zinc and aluminum have declined, and the cross - sectional momentum divergence has expanded. The time - series momentum of the energy sector has dropped significantly [2]. Methanol - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.01%, the demand factor increased by 0.15%, the inventory factor rose by 0.12%, the spread factor weakened by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral [4]. - Fundamental factors: The import arrival volume has increased significantly, making the supply side bearish; the capacity utilization rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises has continued to decrease, making the inventory side bullish; the methanol futures 9 - 1 spread and the import profit factor have both released bearish signals, making the spread side neutral [4]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.32%, the spread factor increased by 0.39%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The capacity utilization rate of float glass is flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction volume of commercial housing in third - tier cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased, with the inventory side remaining bullish but the strength weakening; the spot price of the domestic float glass market has continuously released bearish signals, making the spread side bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal and pipeline gas has declined, but the factor contribution is low, making the profit side neutral [7]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: Last week, each factor remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive signal turns bearish [7]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volumes at Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port have increased significantly, strengthening the bearish feedback on the supply side; the daily average consumption of steel enterprises has decreased, with the demand side turning to bearish feedback but the signal remaining neutral; the inventory of imported trade ore at ports has accumulated, strengthening the bearish feedback on the inventory side; the spot price center has risen, and the freight rate from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao has increased slightly, maintaining the bullish feedback on the spread side [7]. Shanghai Lead - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened and decreased by 0.23%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The price of SMM imported lead concentrates has gradually increased, making the supply side turn to bearish feedback; the LME inventory and SHFE futures warehouse receipts have both decreased, making the inventory side turn to bullish feedback; the average weekly near - far month spread of LME lead has expanded, making the spread side signal turn neutral [7].