Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of contrarian thinking, risk management, and market cycles, particularly during momentum divergence phases [1] - Contrarian thinking is linked to market cycles, suggesting that events will eventually reverse at certain stages, and it is crucial to think in reverse without doing so arbitrarily [1] - The current market situation shows signs of momentum divergence, with a peak divergence observed in September at the 60-minute level, followed by a daily level divergence, indicating a waning enthusiasm for buying despite new highs in stock prices [1][2] Group 2 - The article highlights the human tendency to ignore market cycle changes, as many investors remain optimistic even after significant market breaks, demonstrating a reluctance to acknowledge turning points [4] - The appropriate time to consider bullish positions again will be when a 60-minute level momentum bottom divergence occurs, which is currently not evident [4] - Investors are advised to wait for the occurrence of a 60-minute level divergence, as extreme pessimism among the crowd may signal a good opportunity to start buying [6]

欧奈尔对M（市场反转）有一套说法，是讲跟进日之后多少天以内要再次出现涨幅为多少的阳线，云云。个人认为还是过于主观，不如TR突破的广量统 计可靠，而且有演绎连续性。 真正的主线是不会轻易被淘汰的，猛兽行业锚以及领涨股的演绎特征请参考#猛兽股研究#合集，在本号的置顶合集栏位置。 真正的反转支点将在3C区间之后出现，然后就进入了欧马体系的操作空间。前面的情绪冰点反转不在欧马体系范围，但能从威科夫的量价理论得到支 持。 如上图，10周期情绪接近沸点区域，和上一次离开冰点之后几乎一样，短期调整随时发生。连续的缩量行为，主要是前面的下跌太猛，导致套牢盘被悬 挂，不到那个位置解套盘不会涌出，而下面想进去的资金也畏惧上面的解套盘，越来越谨慎。所以，后续必定要一段筹码反复调和的过程。 如上图，15分钟级别动量出现顶背离。60分钟底背反，15分钟顶背反，很正常，也就是说高一级别在上扬，而低一级别将自然回调。 回调到哪里没法预测。此处先减仓再说。等10周期情绪回落，最好是和20周期情绪粘合，然后再一次加仓。 依然主攻半导体和机器人方向。前面这波大回撤，很多强势股回撤幅度超过26%，达到33%~42%的三、四档位置，左侧比较丝滑，那 ...