专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 编者按：辞旧迎新，金马贺岁。值此新春佳节，新浪财经特邀公私募领域数十位领军人物，通过镜头与 文字，为投资者送来马年新春祝福。信心如磐，笃行致远。愿这一声声真挚寄语，伴您策马扬鞭，共赴 投资长路。 重阳投资合伙人、《财富是认知的变现》作者舒泰峰送来新春祝福。他表示，投资理财没有一夜暴富的 捷径，但是有慢慢变富的秘诀，那就是要拥有"四颗心"：耐心、疑心、小心、初心。对应四个思维：长 期思维、逆向思维、风险思维和股权思维。投资是一场逆人性的游戏，财富复利的最大秘密是如何理解 时间：以长时间的默默坚守换取少数精彩时刻的绽放。祝愿广大投资者朋友们平安健康、阖家幸福、马 到功成、业绩长红。 祝福全文如下： 新浪的朋友们大家好，我是重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰。投资理财没有一夜暴富的捷径，但是有慢慢变富的 秘诀，那就是要拥有"四颗心"：耐心、疑心、小心、初心。对应四个思维：长期思维、逆向思维、风险 思维和股权思维。投资是一场逆人性的游戏，财富复利的最大秘密是如何理解时间：以长时间的默默坚 守换取少数精彩时刻的绽放。 这是我在全新升级版《财富是认知的变现》一书中提炼的精 ...

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 这一轮牛市确实超出了大多数人的想象。其实，对于宏观市场方向的判断，我用了一些简单而常用的方 法，比如逆向思维，再加上我对宏观周期的经验和敏感，以及确实存在的运气成分。我永远都是市场的 学生，虚心万事能成，自满十事九空。随着市场连创新高，理性提醒我，底部靠信仰，顶部靠理智。股 市总是在绝望中重生，争议中上涨，狂欢中崩盘。我们要在炮火中挺进，烟花中撤退。从事宏观研究和 投资实践二十年，看清趋势至关重要，模糊的正确好过精准的错误。平常心，想本质、想简单、想长 远。理性精神和长期主义能帮助我们走向更远。 最后，这两天看到贾和罗两位的事情，感到遗憾，都是在各自领域很优秀的人，其实可以参考但总和 我，相互释放善意，我修路，你架桥，大家就都过去了，成年人的世界。其实就是嘴仗，没啥根本利益 冲突。大家多劝劝，别起哄。群众都明白，谁先释放善意，谁格局大。最后，祝愿世界和平！祝愿您新 年快乐，马到功成！ 1月19日，经济学家任泽平昨晚发微博称，但斌先生的善意收到了。最近，但斌先生向我致歉，大致意 思，2024年9月以来确实是一轮牛市。实事求是，但斌先生作为业内顶级投资人，水平很高，他 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Fire Technology is transitioning from a low-margin OTC business model to a focus on high-net-worth clients and digital asset private banking services, aiming for sustainable profitability and market leadership in the evolving virtual asset landscape [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2025, New Fire Technology's revenue increased by 4.5 times to 8.6 billion HKD, primarily driven by OTC business, which has low profit margins [2][4]. - The company reported a net loss of 9 million HKD, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1][2]. Strategic Shift - The company is pivoting towards digital asset private banking, which is seen as the key to profitability, moving away from the previous management's low-margin strategies [3][4]. - The private banking service has seen rapid growth, with potential clients increasing from 130 to over 460 and actual clients exceeding 260 within two months of launch [4]. Market Positioning - New Fire Technology aims to serve institutional clients and high-net-worth individuals, filling a gap in the market that traditional platforms have overlooked [3][5]. - The company is not competing directly with major exchanges like Binance or OKX but is instead positioning itself as a "super connector" between traditional finance and Web3 [2][5]. Cost Structure and Global Expansion - The company operates with a lean model, employing only 160 staff, which is a quarter of the size of traditional virtual asset trading platforms, allowing for lower operational costs [5][8]. - Plans for 2026 include a "copy-paste" strategy to expand its private banking model into Japan and other regions, leveraging lightweight licensing options [5][6]. Client Focus and Service Model - The target clientele includes listed companies, family offices, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, expected to contribute over 80% of profits by the end of 2026 [8]. - The service model emphasizes high-touch, personalized service, addressing the pain points of high-net-worth clients that traditional financial institutions often overlook [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve monthly profitability by the end of 2026 and overall profitability by 2027, with a target of exceeding 1,000 clients [4][8]. - The CEO believes that the influence of the "four-year cycle theory" is diminishing, with institutional participation in the market increasing, leading to a more stable market structure [8][9].

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles emphasizes the importance of understanding investment principles and human behavior to achieve long-term success in investing [3][4][6] - The concept of "Mr. Market" is highlighted, illustrating that investors should not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations but should focus on the intrinsic value of quality companies [6][10] - The significance of maintaining a rational and patient approach in investing is reiterated, as many investors tend to forget these principles during critical moments [4][6] Group 2 - "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham distinguishes between investment and speculation, stressing the need for a rational approach based on thorough analysis of a company's intrinsic value [15][16][17] - The book emphasizes the psychological factors that can lead to poor decision-making, such as greed and fear, which are common pitfalls for investors [17] - The importance of understanding the long-term potential of investments rather than chasing short-term gains is a key takeaway [15][17] Group 3 - "Principles" by Ray Dalio focuses on the importance of facing reality and understanding causal relationships in decision-making, which is applicable not only in investing but also in personal growth [19][20][21] - The book encourages the development of a decision-making system that minimizes subjective biases and promotes learning from mistakes [21][22] - Dalio's perspective on failure as a necessary component of progress is a crucial insight for investors [22][23] Group 4 - "Value Investing" by Bruce C. Greenwald provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution of value investing and introduces a dynamic framework for modern market conditions [25][26] - The book clarifies that true value comes from a company's economic structure rather than merely buying cheap stocks, emphasizing the importance of competitive advantages and industry structure [26][27] - The concept of "margin of safety" is discussed in depth, highlighting the need for investors to account for uncertainties in their valuations [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rationality in navigating the volatile capital markets, highlighting Chen Lei's commitment to a new analytical paradigm rooted in industrial logic and value essence [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis Approach - Chen Lei's market observations begin with a profound understanding of macroeconomic cycles, viewing economic data as the "pulse" of market operations, and focusing on core variables such as technological innovation, competitive landscape, and consumer demand changes [1][3]. - The analysis framework developed by Chen Lei avoids short-term emotional noise and instead concentrates on fundamental factors that can withstand economic cycles, identifying valuable investment opportunities hidden within seemingly mundane data [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Chen Lei advocates for investment decisions based on independent assessments of intrinsic asset value rather than being swayed by short-term market emotions, promoting a "contrarian thinking" approach [3][5]. - He believes that every irrational market fluctuation presents both a challenge and an opportunity, and only rational investors can uncover mispriced values during these fluctuations [3][5]. Group 3: Analytical Methodology - Chen Lei embraces technological advancements while remaining cautious of the potential replacement of human insight by tool rationality, utilizing big data and quantitative models to enhance market trend analysis [3][5]. - His research reports combine rigorous data support with a deep understanding of industry narratives and entrepreneurial spirit, creating a compelling and insightful analytical framework [3][5]. Group 4: Investor Education and Market Development - As a seasoned market analyst, Chen Lei aims to transform professional analytical frameworks into accessible tools for ordinary investors, fostering rational thinking and independent judgment in the capital market [5]. - He maintains a respectful and exploratory attitude towards the ever-evolving capital market, continuously seeking new possibilities in market analysis while providing valuable references for investors [5].

Core Insights - Traditional factories transitioning online are facing order shortages despite efforts in product listing and promotion, leading to idle machinery and worker anxiety. The issue stems from a reliance on outdated "offline waiting for customers" strategies, which can be overcome through the "reverse thinking" approach offered by operation companies [1] Group 1: Reverse Thinking Strategies - The first step in reverse thinking is to stop waiting for customers to find the factory and instead have operation companies actively seek customer demands. This involves accurately targeting B2B traffic pools such as industry procurement forums and supply chain communities, using professional tools to analyze buyer inquiries and pain points, thus enhancing promotional efficiency significantly [3] - The second step is to avoid chasing large orders and instead focus on securing small orders. Factories often overlook the trust barriers online, and operation companies recommend offering small-batch customization and sample orders while optimizing online service processes to build trust through details. Satisfied small order customers are likely to repurchase and share resources, allowing operation companies to nurture small orders into stable large orders [3][4] - The third step emphasizes not relying solely on new customers but instead revitalizing existing customer resources. Old customers, accumulated offline, are a core asset often neglected online. Operation companies assist factories in building private customer communities, categorizing old customers, and enhancing engagement through regular updates and exclusive online offers, leveraging the high conversion rates of referrals from satisfied old customers [4] Group 2: Operational Transformation - The essence of a factory's online transformation lies in breaking free from traditional offline thinking patterns. The value of operation companies is in helping factories reconstruct their operational logic through reverse thinking: shifting from passive customer waiting to proactive demand seeking, from pursuing large orders to nurturing small ones, and from depending on new customers to stabilizing old ones. This approach enables factories to convert offline production advantages into online order advantages, fostering steady growth in online orders and alleviating transformation anxieties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The core message emphasizes that AI is not here to replace humans but to eliminate those who cannot adapt to AI technologies, highlighting the importance of self-upgrading and skill transformation in the AI era [4][6]. Group 1: AI's Impact on the Labor Market - AI's influence on the labor market is analyzed through a three-dimensional framework, indicating that the competition between AI's substitution and creation effects hinges on human adaptability to change [4][6]. - The agricultural, industrial, and service sectors are experiencing "AI-filtered upgrades," with new roles such as smart agricultural robots, industrial metaverse engineers, and AI interaction designers emerging as direct products of this transformation [8]. - The concept of "human-machine collaboration" is presented as a current necessity, where failure to collaborate with AI could lead to unemployment [11]. Group 2: Transformation of Job Skills in the AI Era - Data from McKinsey and Goldman Sachs reveals that 46% of tasks in U.S. white-collar jobs can be automated by AI, with the legal sector at 44%, while the arts have a low automation rate of 1%, underscoring that AI can handle processes but not creativity [14]. - The notion of "learning a trade for life" is criticized as outdated in the AI era, with a focus on five skill dimensions: technical skills (STEM), advanced cognitive skills (creativity, critical thinking), and social-emotional skills (empathy, leadership) being essential for resisting AI obsolescence [15][17]. Group 3: Practical Paths for Self-Upgrade - Four key thinking principles are proposed for self-upgrading: 1. Reverse thinking encourages strategic positioning during market fluctuations [18]. 2. Risk thinking challenges the notion of AI as an all-powerful solution, emphasizing the danger of over-reliance on AI [20]. 3. Compound thinking advocates for continuous improvement, suggesting that incremental daily progress can outpace AI advancements [22]. 4. Leverage thinking positions AI as a powerful tool that can either merely illuminate or propel significant advancements, depending on the user's capability [24]. Group 4: Interactive Q&A and Practical Training - During the interactive Q&A, the focus shifts to addressing "AI anxiety," with the advice to shift from "should I learn AI?" to "how can I use AI?" This perspective encourages students from non-technical backgrounds to leverage AI as a tool to enhance their professional capabilities [26]. - The conclusion emphasizes that the essence of the AI competition is a race against time, where the difference between individuals lies in how effectively they utilize AI to save time and deepen their thinking [32].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of contrarian thinking, risk management, and market cycles, particularly during momentum divergence phases [1] - Contrarian thinking is linked to market cycles, suggesting that events will eventually reverse at certain stages, and it is crucial to think in reverse without doing so arbitrarily [1] - The current market situation shows signs of momentum divergence, with a peak divergence observed in September at the 60-minute level, followed by a daily level divergence, indicating a waning enthusiasm for buying despite new highs in stock prices [1][2] Group 2 - The article highlights the human tendency to ignore market cycle changes, as many investors remain optimistic even after significant market breaks, demonstrating a reluctance to acknowledge turning points [4] - The appropriate time to consider bullish positions again will be when a 60-minute level momentum bottom divergence occurs, which is currently not evident [4] - Investors are advised to wait for the occurrence of a 60-minute level divergence, as extreme pessimism among the crowd may signal a good opportunity to start buying [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management and a bottom-up approach in investment strategies, focusing on identifying high-quality companies rather than following market trends or macroeconomic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The core investment philosophy of Fenghe Fund prioritizes risk management, asserting that understanding one's own risk profile is essential for successful investing. The focus is on managing drawdowns and maintaining a diversified portfolio with low correlation among assets [1]. - The fund has achieved an average annual return of over 18% since its inception in 2009, with a maximum historical drawdown of only -6.5% [1]. Group 2: Company Focus - The investment strategy is centered on a bottom-up analysis of companies, disregarding macroeconomic trends and focusing instead on a company's innovation and competitiveness. The evaluation of a company's value is based on cash flow, realizable assets, and its ability to generate future cash [1]. - The fund seeks to identify high-quality companies ("eagles") that can dominate their markets, while also being willing to short companies with deteriorating fundamentals, avoiding mediocre companies altogether [1]. Group 3: Market Perspective - The article advocates for a cyclical understanding of the market, encouraging a contrarian investment approach that aligns with long-term fundamentals rather than short-term performance fluctuations. This philosophy allows for strategic investments in companies with strong future prospects during periods of market pessimism [2]. - Key insights include the importance of observation and analysis over prediction, emphasizing that survival in volatile markets relies on solid fundamentals rather than speculative forecasts [2].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of wisdom in various aspects of life, from personal conduct to governance, highlighting the historical and contemporary significance of wisdom in Chinese culture [1] Group 1: Strategic Thinking - The book illustrates strategic thinking through Confucius's insights on the relationship between civil and military affairs, using historical examples to demonstrate foresight and preparedness in diplomacy [2] - It discusses the importance of understanding strengths and weaknesses, exemplified by General Li Guang's military tactics, which were effectively utilized by Emperor Wu of Han [2] Group 2: Purpose of the Book - The compilation of the book is driven by respect for scientists and entrepreneurs whose innovations have advanced productivity and societal progress, aiming to inspire readers to become wise thinkers [3]