从底层逻辑上讲，逆向思维和周期是同一回事，就是事情到了某个阶段一定会反转，得反过来思考，但不能为逆向而逆向，必须在点上，逆向思维发挥效 用的时候，就在周期的动量背离阶段。 就说当下的行情，9月份就开始在60分钟级别动量顶背离，后来又发生日线级别动量顶背离，越来越难做。顶背离的意思是什么，就是做多资金的积极性 在消退，尽管股价还在创新高，但多空资金的较量正在发生转变。这个时候就要把逆向思维提上议事日程，开始管理风险。 当然还有其它的信号，比如官方媒体一片赞颂，诸如上证指数创了10年新高之类，自媒体更像是吃了摇头丸，吹完指数吹个股，吹完个股又吹指数，群体 基本已经忘了周期这个东西，以为狂欢一直会继续。 霍华德马克思的投资科普读物《投资最重要的事》讲了很多件重要的事情，最能触动我的有三件：逆向思维、风险、周期。 重温一下上证指数的日线级别动量顶背离： 本文主要聊一下逆向思维，结合动量原理，给出一种既定性又定量的观察方法。 在明确顶背离的两周中，但从市场整体的动量变化，就能把资金流向看透， 有足够的时间管理风险， 但韭菜的宿命是：不撞南墙不回头。 人性在禀赋效应下，拒不承认转折的到来，即便上周五的破位，仍然固执地认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management and a bottom-up approach in investment strategies, focusing on identifying high-quality companies rather than following market trends or macroeconomic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The core investment philosophy of Fenghe Fund prioritizes risk management, asserting that understanding one's own risk profile is essential for successful investing. The focus is on managing drawdowns and maintaining a diversified portfolio with low correlation among assets [1]. - The fund has achieved an average annual return of over 18% since its inception in 2009, with a maximum historical drawdown of only -6.5% [1]. Group 2: Company Focus - The investment strategy is centered on a bottom-up analysis of companies, disregarding macroeconomic trends and focusing instead on a company's innovation and competitiveness. The evaluation of a company's value is based on cash flow, realizable assets, and its ability to generate future cash [1]. - The fund seeks to identify high-quality companies ("eagles") that can dominate their markets, while also being willing to short companies with deteriorating fundamentals, avoiding mediocre companies altogether [1]. Group 3: Market Perspective - The article advocates for a cyclical understanding of the market, encouraging a contrarian investment approach that aligns with long-term fundamentals rather than short-term performance fluctuations. This philosophy allows for strategic investments in companies with strong future prospects during periods of market pessimism [2]. - Key insights include the importance of observation and analysis over prediction, emphasizing that survival in volatile markets relies on solid fundamentals rather than speculative forecasts [2].

中华民族不仅是勤劳的民族、勇敢的民族，也是智慧的民族。回望历史，儒家"仁义礼智信"的基本准则 里就有"智"；看向当下，进入信息时代，随着智慧工厂、智慧课堂等的出现，"智慧"更是成为社会高频 词。小到为人处世，中到团队管理，大到治国理政，都希望讲智慧、用智慧，以更高的智慧、更优的办 法，更好地解决问题。《中国智慧思维300例》以史为鉴，用事例说话，带读者掌握思维方法、提高思 维水平，从而启迪智慧、增长智慧。 全书按照战略思维、创新思维、前瞻思维、辩证思维、逆向思维、大局思维等分门别类，遴选了从古到 今300个典型事例，予以详细剖析、透彻解说。它们中有治国安邦的韬略，有外交论辩的高招，也有经 商理财的妙算，有认识世界、解释人生的哲思，领域各异、角度多元。 在战略思维里，编者以孔子倡导处乱世"有文事者必有武备"为例，阐释孔子对文武关系的独到见解，以 孔子陪同鲁定公与齐景公会盟的故事，展现他在外交场合如何未雨绸缪、有备无患，而这背后离不开高 瞻远瞩、明察秋毫的战略思维。在辩证思维里，编者讲到人有长短，要"知'短'善用"，举了"飞将军"李 广的例子。李广的军队行动迅速，适合突袭、穿插、包抄，但他治军欠缺章法，不适合大兵 ...

大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要聊一个华尔街传奇人物的故事：约翰・保尔森。 连特朗普都想将他收入麾下 这职位啥概念？相当于美国经济领域的"一把手"，手握调控大权，多少人挤破头都想要，但保尔森想都没想就拒了，理由是自己"难堪重任"，还顺带吐槽了 特朗普的对华关税战，说这纯属"伤敌八百、自损一千"的糊涂账。 换作一般人，碰到这种一步登天的机会，早就乐开花了，但保尔森不这么想这正是他能成大事的关键，不被名利牵着鼻子走。 金融圈里太多人追名逐利，最后栽在权力和欲望里，但保尔森心里知道自己真正擅长的是投资，不是搞政治，一旦进了权力的圈子，就很难保持客观冷静的 判断，而这恰恰是投资的生命线。 拒绝当官后，保尔森也没闲着，转头就扎进了黄金市场，从2023年开始，他就疯狂买入金矿公司的股票，跟当初做空房地产时一样果断。 这人可是个狠角色，在2008年次贷危机里赚得盆满钵满，特朗普都想请他当财政部长，结果人家直接拒绝，现在又一门心思押注黄金，说2028年金价能涨到 5000美元一盎司，他能预知金融吗？ 2025年4月底，他更是放出狠话，说2028年黄金价格能冲到5000美元每盎司，很多人觉得他疯了，但了解他的人都知道，这背后 ...

anzocapital昂首资本一直以来都关注投资者的成长与收益。美国《巴伦周刊》资深财经主笔史蒂文・西尔斯在《不屈不挠的投资 者》一书中的观点，对于投资者而言具有重要的借鉴意义。 聪明的投资者，像anzocapital昂首资本所倡导的那样，首要考虑的从来不是如何赚钱，而是如何永远不赔钱。尽管金融分析通常 会很复杂并且烦人，但其实其思考过程与去杂货店买东西并没有太大差异。投资者必须将关注价值而非价格，作为本能的思考 策略，这应成为一种投资纪律。 恐惧往往会使理智的人忽视决定股票价格的财务现实。当恐惧代替合理分析成为定义股票的关键因素时，多数人会选择卖出。 而anzocapital昂首资本鼓励投资者要做到"恐慌时买入，自信时卖出"，这才是好的交易员和投资者的做法。那些亏损最多的人， 通常是最着急收回损失的人。 西尔斯提醒了投资者失败的常见误区，如混淆价格和价值，因恐慌而卖出，过度相信媒体包装过的股神传奇等。糟糕的投资者 和成功的投资者想法差异巨大，不同的想法会导致截然不同的投资结果。最后，他用约翰・保尔森的逆向投资案例，强调"逆向 思维"才是正确的投资思考逻辑，就像潜水艇的声呐一样，有助于投资者克服恐惧，提醒不要 ...

神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：反过来思考问题能为你提供一个更加清晰的视角。本文来自编译，希望对您有所启发。 顺向思维是自动化的过程：先有因，后有果。输入，然后输出。从A到B。这种逻辑看似合理，从结论出发再寻找佐证，似乎是人之常情。 但我们的思维总能更进一步。有时，获得理想答案的最佳途径恰恰是逆向思考。这被称为思维逆转，将整个思考过程彻底颠倒。正如伟大的代数学家卡尔· 雅可比（Carl Jacobi）所言："反过来想，总是反过来想。" 换言之，"如何确保X计划失败？"比"如何实现X目标？"更具价值。多数人专注显而易见的流程，只因大脑厌恶直面棘手的陷阱。从B到A的逆向思考能帮助 你规避不想要的结果，这是我保持清晰思维的终极利器。 要颠覆决策流程，请从终点倒推。逆向思维之所以有效，在于它迫使你反思可能遗漏的关键。人类大脑天生追求节能，渴望快速答案。但放慢脚步审视全 局，才能覆盖决策流程的所有基础环节。逆向思维能激发更优质的问题，提升思考清晰度，而心理学研究也证实了这一点。认知科学研究表明，逆向构建问 题框架能降低判断失误率。其原理在于打 ...

♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播晏娇朗读音频 1995年，查理·芒格在哈佛法学院演讲时说：在我因贫穷而自卑时，有3个习惯改变了我。 其中之一是： Invert, always invert. 翻译过来是：反过来想，永远反过来想。 洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的 延伸阅读。 作者：洞见Moon 要朝前想，更要学会往后看。 不管是演讲、访谈，还是自传，这句话反复被芒格提及。 什么意思呢？我先讲几个故事。 01 十九世纪末，一位英国商人计划在非洲大草原上建立野生动物园。 为了能更好地展示动物的野性，如何将笼子造得更大、更牢固，是最大的难题。 商人请来很多专家和建筑公司，却得出这样一个结论： 除非把笼子造得看不到边界，否则动物园体现不出野生和自然的特点，但这样所需的成本将远超预算。 此时，一位名不见经传的年轻人建议：为什么不把人和动物的位置反过来呢？ 随后，他承诺以极低的价格承包这份业务。 商人听完轻蔑一笑，认为年轻人异想天开，没有理会。 后来，商人继续在笼子建造上投入资金，直到濒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting human cognition and values in the face of rapid technological advancements, particularly AI, and the need for a clear understanding of the roles of humans and machines in this evolving landscape [1][7][8]. Group 1: Human-Machine Relationship - The relationship between humans and machines is undergoing a significant transformation, necessitating a reevaluation of human roles and capabilities in the age of AI [1][8]. - The course aims to help individuals understand their growth potential in the AI era by clarifying the distinction between human and machine functions [1][12]. - The article highlights the need for a "cognitive immune system" to filter and absorb high-quality information, resisting the overwhelming influx of data [4][17]. Group 2: Cognitive Framework - A solid cognitive framework is proposed, consisting of five key thinking models: System Thinking, Critical Thinking, Bayesian Thinking, Inversion Thinking, and Growth Thinking [25][52]. - System Thinking is crucial for understanding complex interconnections and feedback mechanisms in a rapidly changing environment [28][29]. - Critical Thinking is framed as a continuous learning process, emphasizing the importance of questioning and validating knowledge [36][38]. Group 3: The Role of Knowledge - The article discusses the shift from knowledge acquisition to wisdom application, stressing that merely acquiring information does not equate to understanding or effective action [13][50]. - It argues that in an age of information overload, the ability to discern and internalize knowledge is more critical than ever [14][50]. - The concept of "learning to learn" is highlighted as essential for adapting to new challenges and leveraging AI effectively [49][50]. Group 4: Future Implications - The integration of AI with the Internet of Things (IoT) is anticipated to create profound changes in society, raising questions about human readiness and ethical considerations [68][69]. - The article warns against the potential for technology to overshadow human values, urging a focus on maintaining a human-centric approach in technological development [65][66]. - It concludes that the future of human-machine interaction will depend on the underlying values and ethical frameworks guiding technological advancements [69].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the necessity for professionals to adapt to the rapid advancements in AI technology, questioning the sustainability of their current expertise in the evolving job market [1][3]. Opportunities - AI is reshaping industries, and early adopters are reaping significant benefits. It is not a matter of choice but a necessity, as AI acts as a "restructuring hammer" impacting all sectors [5]. - AI enhances quality in smart manufacturing, efficiency in financial technology, breakthroughs in healthcare, and redefines experiences in education and training [6]. - Understanding how to leverage AI within one's industry equates to obtaining a "ticket" for career advancement, while those who lag may miss out entirely [8]. Challenges - The job market is undergoing a significant transformation, and failure to keep pace with AI advancements may lead to obsolescence. AI is disrupting traditional job roles, particularly those reliant on repetitive tasks [9][10]. - The competition in the workplace is shifting from a focus on singular skills to a demand for comprehensive abilities and innovative thinking. Those clinging to outdated methods will quickly fall behind [11][12]. Key Strategies for Career Advancement - **Cognitive Upgrade**: The essence of an MBA is a way of thinking. In the AI era, upgrading cognitive frameworks is crucial for achieving career breakthroughs and developing unique core competencies [12]. - **Equity Thinking**: Emphasizing long-termism in career development, akin to investment principles, is vital for navigating industry cycles [14]. - **Reverse Thinking**: Identifying opportunities in emotional blind spots created by AI's data processing capabilities can provide a competitive edge [15]. - **Risk Thinking**: Redefining risk as permanent loss rather than mere volatility shifts focus to capital preservation and sustainable survival [16][17]. - **Compound Thinking**: Emphasizing continuous accumulation of skills and knowledge leads to exponential career growth, contrasting with the linear growth of short-term efforts [18][21]. - **Leverage Thinking**: Utilizing AI as a leverage tool can amplify personal value and capabilities [22][25]. - **Brand Thinking**: In the age of AI, establishing a unique personal brand and influence is essential for standing out in a crowded job market [28]. - **Downhill Thinking**: Setting clear goals and creating diverse paths to achieve them is more effective than relying on predetermined routes [31]. - **Time Investment Thinking**: Managing time strategically to maximize efficiency is crucial in the AI era [35]. - **Lego Thinking**: The ability to deconstruct goals and efficiently assemble resources is key to success in a rapidly changing environment [38]. Actionable Guidelines - Professionals should adopt a mindset of continuous learning and humility, regularly acknowledging gaps in knowledge [47]. - Embracing change and breaking routine can foster innovation and adaptability [48]. - Building relationships across generations can enhance knowledge exchange and perspective [49]. - Long-term vision in decision-making is essential for sustainable career growth [50]. - Taking breaks can enhance productivity and creativity [51]. - Timely action on new ideas is critical to prevent loss of momentum [52]. - Establishing small, manageable habits can lead to significant long-term changes [53]. - Persistence in the face of challenges often leads to success [54]. - Learning probability and statistics can better equip professionals to handle uncertainty [56]. - Cultivating gratitude and positive relationships can enhance personal and professional opportunities [55]. Mastering AI - The essence of competition in the AI landscape is time management. Mastery of AI tools allows professionals to reclaim time, focusing on creative and strategic tasks, thus gaining a competitive advantage in career development [56].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of building an "irreplaceability" as a personal moat, which refers to unique competitive advantages that are difficult for others to replicate, thus providing long-term value and resilience against uncertainties in the job market and social value networks [2]. Summary by Categories Personal Moat Capabilities - Delayed gratification is highlighted as a key ability, indicating that the way one derives pleasure can either be easy or challenging [2]. - Self-reflection and the ability to summarize experiences are crucial for personal growth and learning [2]. - Focus is essential, suggesting that individuals should avoid distractions and maintain commitment to tasks [2]. - Learning agility is important, emphasizing the need for continuous learning and adaptation to new information [2]. - Resilience, described as "anti-fragility," is the capacity to recover quickly from setbacks and adjust effectively [2]. - Reverse thinking encourages independent thought processes, akin to the advice of Charlie Munger to think differently [2]. - Interdisciplinary integration skills are necessary to avoid a narrow perspective, as only knowing one field can lead to limited viewpoints [2]. - Empathy, which involves listening and understanding others' perspectives, is also considered a valuable trait [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy revolves around the principle that prices fluctuate around intrinsic value, with a focus on buying undervalued assets and leveraging when opportunities arise [3]. - The discipline to buy undervalued assets and sell when they reach normal valuation is emphasized, along with the importance of patience in investment decisions [3]. - The community of peers, such as members of investment forums, is viewed as a supportive moat, providing shared knowledge and insights [4]. - Learning from past mistakes and experiences is recognized as a significant aspect of developing a personal investment strategy [5]. - Acknowledgment of one's limitations in identifying great companies or short-term market movements is also noted [7]. - The importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to investing, including observing market trends without succumbing to greed or comparison, is highlighted [8].