从底层逻辑上讲，逆向思维和周期是同一回事，就是事情到了某个阶段一定会反转，得反过来思考，但不能为逆向而逆向，必须在点上，逆向思维发挥效 用的时候，就在周期的动量背离阶段。 就说当下的行情，9月份就开始在60分钟级别动量顶背离，后来又发生日线级别动量顶背离，越来越难做。顶背离的意思是什么，就是做多资金的积极性 在消退，尽管股价还在创新高，但多空资金的较量正在发生转变。这个时候就要把逆向思维提上议事日程，开始管理风险。 当然还有其它的信号，比如官方媒体一片赞颂，诸如上证指数创了10年新高之类，自媒体更像是吃了摇头丸，吹完指数吹个股，吹完个股又吹指数，群体 基本已经忘了周期这个东西，以为狂欢一直会继续。 霍华德马克思的投资科普读物《投资最重要的事》讲了很多件重要的事情，最能触动我的有三件：逆向思维、风险、周期。 重温一下上证指数的日线级别动量顶背离： 本文主要聊一下逆向思维，结合动量原理，给出一种既定性又定量的观察方法。 在明确顶背离的两周中，但从市场整体的动量变化，就能把资金流向看透， 有足够的时间管理风险， 但韭菜的宿命是：不撞南墙不回头。 人性在禀赋效应下，拒不承认转折的到来，即便上周五的破位，仍然固执地认为 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and developing a proper money mindset as the first step towards wealth freedom, especially for beginners who feel they have "no money to manage" [4][5][6] - It introduces engaging and easy-to-understand books like "The Rich Dad Poor Dad" and "The Little Money Dog" to help readers build a new understanding of wealth and financial management [5][6] - The article highlights the significance of value investing, founded by Benjamin Graham, which focuses on finding stocks priced below their intrinsic value for long-term gains [8][9] Group 2 - "The Intelligent Investor" is presented as a foundational text in value investing, introducing the concept of "margin of safety" to protect against market volatility [9] - "Warren Buffett's Letters to Shareholders" provides insights into Buffett's investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of long-term competitive advantages and intrinsic value over short-term price fluctuations [10] - Practical methods for applying value investing principles in stock selection and asset allocation are discussed, including industry analysis and financial metrics [11][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the basics of technical analysis, which helps investors make informed decisions based on historical price and volume data [15][16] - "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" is recommended for understanding market trends and buy/sell signals through candlestick patterns [16] - "Market Trend Analysis" is highlighted as a comprehensive guide to identifying market trends and managing risk through various technical indicators [17][18] Group 4 - The importance of a systematic trading approach is emphasized, with "The Turtle Trading Rules" providing a framework for disciplined trading based on clear entry and exit rules [20] - "The Simplest Thing in Investing" offers localized strategies for the A-share market, focusing on finding undervalued stocks and understanding pricing power [21] Group 5 - The article stresses the psychological aspects of investing, highlighting the need for a rational mindset to navigate market volatility [22][23] - "Poor Charlie's Almanack" is recommended for its insights into multi-disciplinary thinking and investment philosophy [24] - "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks emphasizes understanding market cycles and risk management as key components of successful investing [25] Group 6 - The article addresses the impact of human psychology on investment decisions, suggesting strategies to overcome emotional biases [26][27] - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" illustrates the influence of fear and greed on trading behavior through the life of Jesse Livermore [27] - "Fooled by Randomness" warns against cognitive biases and emphasizes the importance of risk management in unpredictable markets [28] Group 7 - The article provides a reading strategy for efficiently absorbing investment knowledge during holidays, suggesting a mix of short and long reading sessions [30][31] - It encourages practical application of learned concepts by identifying actionable insights from each book read [34][35] - The importance of verifying investment theories against current market conditions is highlighted to avoid blind adherence to strategies [36]