分析师：仍预期美联储年内或仅降息一次 金十数据7月31日讯，分析师Isabelle表示，由于压力不太可能对经济产生太大影响，我的基本观点仍然 是，劳动力市场的弹性，以及关税引发的价格压力继续出现，使美联储暂时保持观望。仍预计美联储今 年可能只会降息25个基点，或在12月的会议上。 ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]