劳动力市场拐点

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非农数据远不及预期,大洗牌开始!-美股-金融界
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-09-05 12:56
Core Viewpoint - The August non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Labor Department revealed a significant slowdown in the labor market, with only 22,000 jobs added, far below market expectations of 75,000 and the previous month's 73,000 [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The low job addition indicates a potential turning point in the labor market, confirming a cooling of economic activity [2]. - The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.3%, up from 4.2%, which adds to concerns about the labor market's health [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the data release, the financial markets experienced significant volatility, with the dollar index dropping sharply and gold prices reaching historical highs [3]. - The relationship between the dollar and risk assets has become tighter, indicating that the dollar is increasingly acting as a "risk currency" rather than just a safe haven [3]. Group 3: Future Implications - Upcoming annual revision data is expected to potentially revise down hundreds of thousands of jobs, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 800,000 jobs [4]. - If the job revisions are substantial, it could shift market sentiment from anticipating rate cuts to concerns about an economic recession, impacting both equity and bond markets [4].