数据的修正幅度引起了市场的高度关注。10月数据从此前的减少10.5万人进一步下修至减少17.3万人，11月数据则从增加6.4万人下修至增加5.6万 人。彭博记者Chris Anstey警告称，三个月移动平均数据出现2.2万人的萎缩，即便考虑到劳动力供应减少的因素，这对未来的消费支出来看也并非 积极信号。 1月9日，美国12月非农就业增长不及预期，且前两个月数据遭遇大幅下修，导致2025年全年就业增长创下自疫情以来最疲软的年度表现。尽管薪 资增长保持稳健，但三个月移动平均就业数据已滑入负值区间，凸显出劳动力市场动能的显著衰退。 9日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示： 美国12月非农就业人口增长5万人，预期6.5万人，前值6.4万人 美国12月失业率4.4%，预期4.5%，前值4.6%。 劳工统计局表示，10月份非农新增就业人数从-10.5万人修正至-17.3万人；11月份非农新增就业人数从6.4万人修正至5.6万人。修正后，11月和12 月新增就业人数合计较修正前低7.6万人。 数据公布后，交易员仍预计美联储将在2026年降息约50个基点，认为美联储1月降息的可能性几乎为零。 创纪录的疲软年度 全年来看 ...

【12月23日金融市场短线波动：美元、美债升，黄金降，美股期货平稳】12月23日，美元指数短线拉升 约10点，现报97.99。 美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.15%左右的跌幅。 美国10 年期国债收益率短线拉升，现报4.149%。 现货黄金短线走低约4美元，现报4485.51美元/盎司。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

第三，全球市场仍旧是"对冲共存"的状态，股市涨、美元不跌、黄金不弱、债券收益率高企——市场不 相信单一叙事。这不是牛市的上涨，更像一次集体犹豫。 来源：华尔街情报圈 黄金、美股期货、原油周一开盘上涨——美股上周五涨得不错，缓解了市场的紧张氛围。 但要注意一个词："成交清淡"。马上进入假期模式，很多资金已经开始"收摊"，这种时候的上涨，幅度 可能被放大，但含金量并不高。 第一，上周标普500指数站上6800点，纳斯达克指数突破50日移动均线，比特币稳稳站上85000美元—— 所以从本周一开始的一个主题将是"博年末反弹"（不是"看好明年"）。从这个角度分析，本周阻力最小 的路径是"上涨"，但唯一的风险在于共识会越来越一致。一旦被过度讨论，就会出现两种结果：提前透 支，或者上涨更快、但更短命。 第二，对投资者而言，仍旧是一个具有期待的环境，因为市场仍旧押注美联储明年将有两次降息（合 理，不激进），人们会继续带着希望押注下去。市场没有方向，只是在博概率。 第四，市场真正的"分水岭"，不在假期，而在1月——不是一个点，而是一段"重新定价期"。 中国：如果1月政策信号不够明确，耐心资金会继续观望。 美国：一旦"1月不降息 ...

【导读】 美国11月新增非农就业6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%，10月就业减少10.5万人逊于预期 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美国迟来的非农数据。 12月16日晚间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人， 好于预 期，经济学家此前预计非农将增加4.5万人。 而10月为减少10.5万人。9月失业率为4.4%，11月升至 4.6%， 高于预期的4.5%。 由于此前政府停摆导致无法事后补采数据，BLS未能发布10月失业率。 10月非农就业人数下降，创2020年底以来最大跌幅，主要原因是联邦政府就业人数减少16.2万——参与 特朗普政府"延期辞职"（deferred resignation）计划的员工正式从工资名单中剔除。 11月就业人数在10月回落后转为增长，延续了近几个月劳动力市场"忽上忽下"的波动格局。不过，失业 率仍在上行：裁员公告增加，不少失业者很难找到新工作。尽管这些数据存在一些特殊背景因素，这份 报告仍将帮助投资者判断明年利率路径。 美联储上周连续第三次降息。主席鲍威尔称此举是为了支持"逐步降温"的劳动力市场，并指出存在"显 著"的下行风险。 最新数据 ...

亚洲股市之外，全球市场正上演"美元走弱、万物皆涨"的罕见行情。黄金与美股期货双双突破昨日高 点，美国国债价格同步走高，而美元指数则持续下挫——这一系列联动发生在美联储核心通胀指标公布 前夜，构成极具戏剧性的市场预演。 本文源自：热点快报 按常规逻辑，重要数据发布前市场应呈现"轻仓观望、关键位蓄势"的谨慎姿态。但当前行情却呈现"美 元下跌+股指期货上行+黄金突破+美债收益率下行"的全面一致特征，这种在关键数据窗口期提前形成 的单边趋势，早已超越"中性预期"的合理范畴。 作者：AI君 这种异常行情背后往往隐藏着两种可能：其一，关键经济数据可能已被市场通过非官方渠道提前获悉； 其二，华尔街主力机构已形成"无论数据好坏，均按此方向解读"的共识性策略。若属后一种情形则更需 警惕——当市场在数据发布前便以突破性走势形成一致性预期，往往意味着交易逻辑已从"数据本身"转 向"数据后的叙事逻辑"。 此刻的市场已非单纯的数据反应场，而成为叙事博弈的战场。那些在关键点位形成的突破性走势，既可 能是对潜在利好的提前定价，也可能是叙事主导下的预期管理。今晚的焦点，已悄然从"通胀数据的具 体数值"转向"市场如何解读这个数值"——这场关于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are stabilizing following a rebound in U.S. stocks, with cautious sentiment prevailing ahead of key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1] Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures rose nearly 0.2%, with the S&P 500 futures at 6853.00, up 12.75 points [1] - European and Asian stock indices showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4% and the Nikkei 225 closing up 1.1% [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.08%, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.885%, the highest since June 2008 [4] Economic Data and Expectations - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases include the November ADP private sector employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which are expected to influence market sentiment [1] - Analysts express concern that any unexpected positive data could lead to a short-term market pullback, given the current dovish market expectations [1] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.4% to $58.9 per barrel, while silver prices fell slightly after reaching a historical high [4] - The cryptocurrency market remains active, with Bitcoin rising 2.5% to $93,892.01 and Ethereum up 2.8% to $3,081.45 [4][8] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell over 0.2% to 99.1, while the Indian rupee dropped to a historic low against the dollar, reflecting ongoing pressures from trade negotiations and capital outflows [4][10]

Core Insights - The global capital markets experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with oil prices dropping over 1.5% and gold prices seeing a short-term decline [1][4]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Diplomatic efforts accelerated before Thanksgiving, with Ukraine's President Zelensky preparing to meet with Trump on November 27 to finalize key steps for a peace agreement [3]. - The initial "28-point" plan proposed by the U.S. has been condensed to a "19-point" version, which Ukraine has agreed to, although some details remain to be negotiated [3]. - Moscow's response has been lukewarm, with officials indicating they have not received the updated plan and are awaiting further details from the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Considerations - The timing of the peace plan has drawn academic interest, with experts suggesting that both Russia and Ukraine may be exhausted, providing an opportunity for the U.S. to propose a new plan [4]. - The expectation of reduced geopolitical risks has impacted the valuation of safe-haven assets, leading to a decline in gold prices as market risk aversion diminishes [4]. - Analysts express caution regarding the future of precious metals, noting that the lack of sustainable risk factors and ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve policies will continue to influence gold prices [4].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the dollar maintaining a narrow range ahead of key U.S. data releases, while gold remains supported by Fed policy signals and geopolitical tensions [1][4] - The upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including PPI, retail sales, consumer confidence, and employment indicators, will strengthen market judgments regarding the Fed's December policy path [5] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East, continue to drive safe-haven demand for gold [3][5] Group 2 - Fed officials have recently communicated a more dovish stance, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to approximately 80% [2] - The delay in the release of the November employment report has led to discussions about the potential postponement of the Fed's meeting, impacting policy expectations and market volatility [2][5] - Gold prices have strengthened in the context of rising rate cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions, maintaining a high trading range near $4150 [3][4]

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]

Market Overview - S&P 500 futures declined by 58.75 points, or 0.87% [1] - Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 344.50 points, or 1.37% [1] - Dow Jones futures decreased by 260.00 points, or 0.55% [1] Stock Performance - Notable tech stocks experienced significant pre-market declines: - Tesla dropped by 5% [1] - Nvidia and TSMC fell over 3% [1] - Google decreased by 2.7% [1] - Broadcom declined by 2.5% [1] Gold Market - Spot gold prices continued to retreat, with a decline of 1.35%, trading at $4,114.731 per ounce [1] - Gold prices fell nearly $100 from the daily high [1]