近期美联储官员密集发声，使市场重新校准政策预期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，只要经济数据配 合，短期降息不会偏离通胀目标；旧金山联储主席戴利强调劳动力市场存在"非线性恶化"的风险，有必 要及早采取行动；理事沃勒也认为应在12月降息，并倾向按"逐会评估"的方式推进后续政策。在连续的 温和基调推动下，市场迅速消化预期。CMEFedWatch 显示，在下次会议降息 25 个基点的概率已升至约 80%，高于上周水平。这使美元上周积累的强势有所减弱，也为黄金提供了更持久的支撑。 周二欧洲早盘，市场整体延续前一交易日的分化态势：美元在多项美国核心数据公布前维持窄幅震荡， 而黄金在温和的美联储政策信号及复杂的地缘局势推动下继续守在高位区间。随着9月零售销售、PPI、 11月消费者信心指数与每周就业数据即将公布，交易者的注意力不仅集中在数据本身，也开始讨论—— 在重要就业数据延迟发布的情况下，美联储12月会议是否可能调整时间表。 欧洲时段，美元指数稳定在 100 上方波动，整体保持相对克制的节奏。尽管市场风险偏好较高、且对12 月降息的预期持续升温，但投资者在关键数据出炉前并未进一步压低美元，更多选择评估后续信号。主 要货币方 ...

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]

同时，美股部分明星科技股盘前大幅走低，特斯拉跌5%，英伟达、台积电跌超3%，谷歌跌2.7%，博通跌2.5%。 11月14日晚间，美股期货跌幅扩大，道琼斯指数期货跌0.55%，标普500指数期货跌0.87%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.37%。 | 标普500期货小型 | 6701.25d -58.75 -0.87% | | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克100期货微型 | 24750.25d -344.50 -1.37% | | 道琼斯期货小型 | 47287.00d -260.00 -0.55% | 现货黄金持续回落，截至发稿，跌幅达1.35%，报4114.731美元/盎司，较日高回落近100美元。 | 20:48 | | | | | ··· | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4114.781 Fa | | | 4171.150 | 总量 | | 0 | | -56.419 | -1.35% 开盘 | | 4170.138 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 ...

| 标普500期货小型 | 6701.25d -58.75 -0.87% | | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克100期货微型 | 24750.25d -344.50 -1.37% | | 道琼斯期货小型 | 47287.00d -260.00 -0.55% | 同时，美股部分明星科技股盘前大幅走低， 特斯拉跌5%， 英伟达、台积电跌超3%，谷歌跌2.7%，博通跌2.5%。 现货黄金持续回落，截至发稿，跌幅达1.35%，报4114.731美元/盎司，较日高回落近100美元。 11月14日晚间，美股期货跌幅扩大，道琼斯指数期货跌0.55%，标普500指数期货跌0.87%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.37%。 编辑丨钉钉 | 20:48 | | | | | ::! さ (12) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4114.731 FS | | | 4171.150 | 总量 | | 0 | | -56.419 | -1.35% 开盘 | | 4170.138 | 现手 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming US September CPI data is a key focus for the market, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year growth, making it significant due to delays caused by the government shutdown [1] - Gold prices have seen a short-term adjustment after reaching new highs, with a drop below $4100, influenced by profit-taking, a rebound in the dollar, and reduced demand post-Diwali in India [2] - The US-China high-level talks are set to resume, with discussions expected to focus on rare earths, technology exports, and investment restrictions, which is viewed positively by the market despite existing differences [3] Group 2 - The US dollar index remains strong above the 99 mark, supported by safe-haven flows and liquidity, while the euro and pound struggle to gain momentum [4] - US stock futures have seen a slight increase, particularly in the tech sector, with Intel rising nearly 8% pre-market, indicating a reassessment of corporate earnings cycles [5] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now the second longest in history, continues to pose risks, alongside global sanctions and geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [6] Group 3 - CPI and trade negotiation outcomes are expected to be the main drivers of the market this week, with potential implications for risk and safe-haven assets depending on the inflation data and negotiation results [7]

Group 1 - The Dow Jones index narrowed its decline to 0.65% [1] - The S&P 500 index narrowed its decline to 0.63% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index narrowed its decline to 0.47% [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures opened significantly higher on October 13, with the Dow futures up 0.66%, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rising over 1% [1] - The Dow Jones futures reached 46,007.00, marking an increase of 301.00 points or 0.66% [2] - The S&P 500 futures increased by 67.75 points to 6,663.00, reflecting a rise of 1.03% [2] - Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 365.00 points to 24,762.00, a gain of 1.50% [2] - The Russell 2000 futures for small-cap stocks increased by 28.70 points to 2,437.20, up 1.19% [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks in the US market rebounded in after-hours trading, with Alibaba rising over 5%, Baidu and NIO up over 4%, and JD.com increasing by over 2% [2] Global Market Reactions - Following a significant drop in global assets on October 10, where the Nasdaq fell over 3%, the VIX fear index surged over 31% [5] - The Chinese government responded to the US's announcement of a 100% tariff on rare earth exports and software controls, emphasizing a need for dialogue and respect in trade relations [5] Investment Outlook - CICC's report indicates that the recent events have caused notable disturbances in global assets, but the medium-term trend remains intact, with a continued revaluation of Chinese assets expected [6] - The report suggests that the impact on A-shares will be less severe than in early April, as the market had already priced in rapid adjustments at that time [6] - Guotai Junan Securities expresses a more optimistic view compared to consensus, stating that the current trade risks are clearer and domestic financial stability is more assured, suggesting that external shocks will not derail the overall trend [7] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% to above $115,000, and Ethereum increasing by over 10% [7] - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL and Dogecoin also experienced gains of over 10% [7] Gold Market - Gold prices surged again, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,060.05 per ounce, marking a new historical record [10] South Korean Market - The South Korean stock market opened significantly lower but stabilized, with the KOSPI index initially dropping over 2.6% before narrowing its losses to around 1.4% [12]

Core Viewpoint - US stock futures showed an upward trend as market sentiment adjusted positively towards the potential US government shutdown [1] Group 1 - Dow futures increased by more than 100 points at the time of reporting [1] - Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced gains [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced a short-term increase of approximately 20 points, currently reported at 98.10 [1] - US stock futures showed a slight decline, with the Nasdaq 100 index's drop expanding to 0.6% [1] - Spot gold prices decreased by about 8 dollars, currently reported at 3746.41 dollars per ounce [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose in the short term, currently reported at 4.177% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global market risk appetite continues to rise, with US stocks reaching historical highs as investors focus on upcoming retail data and prepare for the widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut later this year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Asian stock markets have reached record highs, while European stocks opened mixed, and US stock index futures are collectively rising [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the 6600-point mark [2] - The MSCI Asia stock index has achieved a historical high, potentially recording its best consecutive gains in nearly five years [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - August retail sales data is expected to grow by 0.2%, which will provide crucial insights for Federal Reserve decision-making [1] - There is a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with some investors considering the possibility of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 3: Fixed Income and Commodities - US Treasury prices have risen, with the 10-year yield dropping by 1 basis point to 4.03%, as investors bet on an impending rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [6] - Spot gold has increased by $7, currently trading at $3694 per ounce, approaching the $3700 mark [7]