本周五美国经济分析局公布的最新数据显示，2025 年年末，美国经济急剧降温，GDP年化季环比增长 率初值降至1.4%。这主要是由于关税政策以及长达数周的政府停摆削弱了其先前的增长势头。 根据最新数据，去年全年，美国经济总体增长了2.2%，低于前一年的 2.8%。与此同时，即便在特朗普 关税影响下，美国去年的进口额依旧增加，贸易逆差扩大的情况仍在持续。 同时，美国联邦财政支出也有所下降，部分原因是去年10月开始的、持续43天的史上最长政府停摆事 件。 不过，这些削减在很大程度上被美国家庭的强劲支出所抵消，尽管关税和工资增长疲弱削弱了美国居民 的财务状况，但他们仍热衷于消费。 "经济状况看起来还算稳健，但仔细观察就会发现，实际情况却相当不稳定。"威尔明顿信托公司的首席 经济学家卢克·蒂利（Luke Tilley）如是说，他估计美国未来出现经济衰退的可能性约为 45%，"当我们 看到就业增长极其缓慢、消费者在信用卡、房贷和汽车贷款方面出现违约现象时，就能看出经济形势已 经变得相当疲软。" 经济的这些复杂信号使美联储在未来的道路上面临更多困难。去年，美联储已三次降低借贷成本，但目 前仍暂停进一步降息，直到能更准确地把 ...

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on February 19, with an opening price of $4998.09 per ounce, a high of $5022.21, a low of $4960.62, and a closing price of $5013.83 [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, exceeding economists' expectations of 225,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market [3] - Continuing claims rose to 1.87 million, the highest level since early January, suggesting some underlying weakness in the labor market despite the drop in initial claims [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that most policymakers see signs of stabilization in the labor market, although concerns about downside risks remain [3] - The probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is estimated at 20%-25%, down from 30% in September [4] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump indicated that a decision on a potential agreement with Iran could be made in about ten days, emphasizing that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons for peace in the Middle East [5] - Reports suggest Trump is considering limited military strikes against Iran to compel compliance with nuclear agreement terms, with discussions shifting towards larger-scale actions [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.14 tons to a total of 1078.75 tons [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 5.9%, with a 94.1% chance of maintaining current rates [7] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 49.8% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with short-term indicators suggesting a gradual upward crossover [11] - The trading strategy includes cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for aggressive and conservative traders [11]

然而，这一政策并非没有显而易见的副作用。对于许多抗风险能力较弱的美国企业和个人来说，额外的 利息负担很可能成为压垮他们的最后一根稻草。即使这些企业不至于破产，它们的盈利能力也无疑会受 到严重影响。如果大量企业倒闭，生产体系的崩溃将使得美国经济陷入更加深重的危机之中。加息，虽 然旨在遏制通胀，却有可能成为经济深陷泥潭的催化剂。 实际上，美国联邦储备委员会在很早之前就 已经预告了加息的计划，但导致市场剧烈反应的并非加息本身，而是加息幅度的超预期。此前，美国社 会普遍预测此次加息幅度最多为50个基点，而美联储最终宣布了75个基点的加息幅度，远远超出了市场 的预期。这一差距让市场感到震惊，市场信心也因此受到极大冲击。 根据观察者网的报道，6月15日，美国联邦储备委员会正式宣布将基准利率上调75个基点，目的是应对 美国当前严峻的通货膨胀问题。加息政策的效果并不单一、简单，但我们可以通过一个直观的标准来理 解它。通俗来说，降息就像印钱和大放水，而加息则是收钱和大缩水。 从根本上讲，美联储通过提高 贷款利息的标准，迫使所有美国企业和个人在借款后偿还时支付更多的利息。这些额外的利息将通过银 行回流美国政府。随着市场上的美元减 ...

Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the monetary policy meeting on January 28, with a focus on potential adjustments to economic growth forecasts amid a complex trade environment [1] - The Canadian economy heavily relies on manufacturing, high-tech industries, and services, supported by natural resources, with steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors being critical [3] Steel and Aluminum Industry - Canada's steel and aluminum industry faces significant challenges, with over $12 billion in annual exports to the U.S., where more than 40% of revenue is dependent on the U.S. market [4] - U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are set to increase from 25% to 50% by 2025, severely impacting export competitiveness and leading to a reduction in orders and idle machinery [4] - The automotive industry, which relies on steel and aluminum, is also experiencing a slowdown, with annual production nearly halving compared to a decade ago [4] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector's decline is exacerbated by high tariffs, which are expected to reduce the share of U.S. imports from Canada from nearly 50% to one-third by 2025 [6] - High interest rates are dampening consumer enthusiasm for vehicle purchases, contributing to a shrinking automotive market [4] Economic Impact and Consumer Sentiment - The decline in manufacturing is expected to negatively affect related sectors such as mining, logistics, and technology services, ultimately lowering national economic growth [6] - Canadian consumer prices are projected to rise, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to exceed the 2% target, reaching 2.6% by February 2025 [7] - Consumer spending has shown a decline, with a notable drop in September and October 2025, despite a slight rebound in November [7] Employment Market Dynamics - A survey indicates that the percentage of Canadians expecting an economic recession within a year has increased from 15% to 32%, with 66.5% of consumers expressing pessimism [9] - The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest in over two years, with a record number of job seekers entering the market without a corresponding increase in job creation [9] - The job market shows a dichotomy, with growth in sectors like healthcare and education, while manufacturing and construction, particularly in steel, aluminum, and automotive, face significant job losses [9][10] Steel Industry Export Decline - Canadian steel exports to the U.S. are projected to plummet by 36.6% year-on-year by October 2025, leading to reduced hiring and investment in the sector [10] - The cycle of external shocks leading to low employment and subsequent consumer spending decline is creating a negative feedback loop for the economy [10]

Let's start with a very recent chart with the latest recession. We've used February 3, 2020 for our start date (this is the official NBER recession start). Eight of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through February 9, 2026. Japan's Nikkei 225 is in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 12.0%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a year-to-date gain of 5.5% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year-to-date gain of 4.6%. On the opposite end, India's BSE S ...

Group 1 - In January 2023, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 108,000, a year-on-year increase of 118%, marking the highest level for the same month since the severe economic recession in 2009 [2] - Major companies affected by the layoffs include Amazon, which plans to cut 16,000 jobs, and UPS, which announced layoffs of up to 30,000 employees [2] - The primary reasons for these layoffs include contract losses and poor economic conditions, indicating a lack of optimism among employers regarding the economic outlook for 2026 [2] Group 2 - A recent survey by the Pew Research Center indicates that 72% of Americans view the current economic situation as "fair" or "poor," with 38% fearing that the economic situation will worsen in the next year [3] - 52% of respondents believe that the current U.S. government's policies have led to a deterioration of the economic situation, and 60% disapprove of the government's tariff policies [3] - Commentary from German media suggests that the U.S. government's tariff policies are pushing the global economy towards recession, highlighting a perceived lack of capability to maintain prosperity and peace [3]

板块方面，大消费板块涨幅靠前。其中，思摩尔国际 6969.HK 涨 8.99%，名创 优品 9896.HK 涨 6.18%，毛戈平 1318.HK 涨 5.29%，达势股份 1405.HK 涨 5.21%， 周黑鸭 1458.HK 涨 4.46%，古茗 1364.HK 涨 3.86%，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）涨 2.9%，青岛啤酒股份 168.HK 涨 2.82%，茶百道 2555.HK 涨 1.75%。商务部等多 部门印发《2026「乐购新春」春节特别活动方案》，鼓励各地增加春节期间消费 品以旧换新补贴数量，加大线下实体零售支持力度，在一定程度上提振了市场 信心。 港股晨报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：热门交易全面退潮，裁员潮引发衰 退担忧 昨日，港股三大指数集体录得上涨。其中，恒生指数涨 0.14%，国企指数涨 0.5%， 恒生科技指数涨 0.74%。大市成交金额 3,151.12 亿元，主板总卖空金额 650.73 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 22.99%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流入 249.77 亿港元。港股通 10 ...

黄金正面临自2024年牛市开启以来最关键的技术测试之一。在经历了一轮由过度拥挤的动量交易引发的剧烈抛售后，金价已回落至去年9月以来的 陡峭趋势线附近，并在夜间的迷你闪崩中测试了50日均线。 据The Market Ear分析，金价必须在4600美元（上下浮动50美元）附近企稳，以维持其建设性的市场结构。当前的下跌主要是由于前期过度的"错 失恐惧症"（FOMO）交易以及缺乏下行风险管理所致，相对强弱指数（RSI）已从91骤降至46，显示出市场已从极度超买迅速转为自去年8月以来 的最低超卖水平。 然而，市场结构的脆弱性依然令人担忧。花旗研究指出，过去三年黄金持有者积累的账面利润高达约20万亿美元，而推动本轮上涨的资金流入仅 约1万亿美元。这意味着仅需5%的获利盘回吐，就足以抵消全球所有的实物需求，这种巨大的存量获利盘如同一把悬在金价上方的"达摩克利斯之 剑"。 尽管短期内仍有支撑，但机构对中期前景已转趋谨慎。花旗维持未来0至3个月5000美元/盎司的目标价，但预计随着地缘政治风险在2026年下半年 消退以及美联储独立性的确认，金价将在2027年回落至4000美元，跌幅或达20%。 关键技术位与风险管理 从技术层面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is not a sign of stability but rather an indication of uncertainty, suggesting a cautious approach amidst various economic pressures [1][3][12]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Inflation remains high, indicating that the Fed has not fully tamed it, with a significant distance from the 2% target [3]. - The job market shows signs of weakness, with stable unemployment rates that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about economic growth [3][10]. - The Fed faces a dilemma: easing policies could reignite inflation, while tightening could stifle fragile employment recovery and risk recession [3][12]. Group 2: Internal Fed Dynamics - The presence of two dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut highlights internal divisions within the Fed, reflecting differing views on inflation and economic risks [5][12]. - The Fed's current stance is characterized by a lack of consensus, leading to increased uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements [6][14]. Group 3: Global Implications - The Fed's pause in rate adjustments has global ramifications, particularly for countries with significant dollar-denominated debt, which may face increased repayment pressures [8][10]. - A prolonged high-interest rate environment in the U.S. could attract capital back to the U.S., potentially leading to capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets [8][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation, employment, and financial market stability [10][12]. - The current economic indicators suggest a precarious balance, with the Fed needing to navigate between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [12][14].

全球资本市场的总开关，在2026年1月被卡住了。 比如他希望美联储下调基准利率下调至3%。意思是还得再降至少50个基点才能维持当前的平衡。 但是根据芝商所的数据，市场普遍都觉得，美联储在1月29日可能并不会对利率有所调整——这大概是鲍威尔最后能做的事情了。 因为鲍威尔和整个FOMC，基本上已经没有操作空间。一边是无论如何解决不了的通胀。一边是依然在失速的美国经济。 大家好，我是孙少睡，这是我的第487篇时评。 美联储1月的议息会议马上就要开了，但是核心议题却并不是接下来的货币政策。所有人目前都只有一个疑问——将要上台的这个人，到底是不是特朗普 的傀儡。 货币政策可以再讨论，但接班人是谁，他将要怎么做，这个已经没办法等待了。 目前最热门的人选是贝莱德公司的高管里克·里德尔。他没有央行从业经验，只是在华尔街混了几十年。当然他管理的资产足够庞大，他的观点也和特朗 普的足够契合。 1月22日公布的美联储最青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%。实话实说是符合预期的，但这也不影响远远没有达到 2%的目标。 鲍威尔团队也不想因为降息被人贴上像通胀投降的标签。 美国12月非农就业只新增 ...