Workflow
经济衰退
icon
Search documents
周五的美国一场影响全球经济的讲话,到底讲了什么?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 01:47
他明确表示:虽然通胀还没完全控制住,但美联储"可能在未来数月降息"。 8月22日,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话,就像一颗"政策炸弹",让整个金融市场都屏住了呼吸。 你有没有发现,最近新闻里关于美联储降息的消息越来越多了? 如果经济真的出现疲软,降息只是"止痛药",不能解决根本问题。从历史数据来看,降息初期股市通常会上涨,但中长期还是要看经济基本面。 所以,如果你有投资计划,得看清楚趋势,别被短期情绪带偏。 而且,美元作为全球主要储备货币,一旦降息,可能引发全球资本流动变化。 人民币汇率、大宗商品价格,甚至是你买进口商品的价格,都会受到影响。 这番话,听起来是不是有点矛盾?一边说通胀还在,一边又要降息?其实,这正是鲍威尔的"平衡术"。 他用的是 "风险平衡点"的说法,意思是现在经济下行的风险,已经超过了通胀上行的压力。这就像你开车时突然发现前方有减速带,虽然速度还没降下 来,但你已经松了油门。 美联储现在做的,就是松油门——降息,来给经济"缓冲"。 那这对我们普通人有什么影响呢? 最直接的就是传导过来的美元汇率、黄金价格,美国人民的房贷、车贷利率可能会下降,贷款成本变低。 但别高兴太早。 你可能会问:通胀还没 ...
来不及了!2026年利率砍到3%,美联储降息也救不了美国经济?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 21:38
风暴前夜:美国经济在多重压力下步履蹒跚 在全球经济的舞台上,美国经济正如同走钢丝的杂技演员,在令人眩晕的高度上寻求平衡,而脚下则是深不 见底的衰退深渊。穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪,这位经济预测领域的资深人士,近来频繁发出警 示,他的声音如同穿透迷雾的灯塔,照亮了美国经济所面临的严峻现实。 赞迪通过LinkedIn发布了一项基于复杂机器学习模型的预测,如同掷地有声的判决:未来12个月内,美国经 济陷入衰退的概率高达49%。这个数字并非空穴来风,而是建立在对当前经济运行状况的深入剖析之上。早 在之前,赞迪就已敏锐地指出,美国经济正"处于衰退边缘",如今,超过半数的行业已启动裁员,这一现象 与历史上的经济衰退前兆高度吻合,如同乌云汇聚,预示着暴风雨即将来临。 在赞迪的预测中,2025年末至2026年初将是美国经济最为脆弱的时刻。他认为,特朗普政府时期所推行的关 税和移民限制政策,其负面影响将在此时达到顶峰。这些政策如同悬在经济头顶的两把达摩克利斯之剑:关 税抬高了进口商品的价格,增加了企业的运营成本,最终转嫁到消费者身上;而移民限制则加剧了劳动力短 缺,使得企业难以找到合适的员工,从而影响了生产和扩张。两者 ...
深夜重磅,鲍威尔暗示降息,美股全线大涨
但事实上,鲍威尔的表态并非是急于大幅宽松的"鸽派",也不是完全坚持紧缩的"鹰派",而是一种"谨慎中透灵活"的姿态。他试图在经济放缓与政治压力 之间,为美联储寻找一条平衡路径。 市场迅速给出反馈,将此视为九月降息的强心剂,美股三大指数在讲话期间集体上扬,其中,道指一度上涨至45748.82点,再创盘中新高。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 45716.74 | 21440.66 | 6463.11 | | +931.24 +2.08% | +340.35 +1.61% | +92.94 +1.46% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7924.20 | 23587.50 | 6489.75 | | +214.52 +2.78% | +367.75 +1.58% | +101.50 +1.59% | "鲍威尔正处于非常艰难的处境,一方面通胀和劳动力市场并未完全符合降息条件,另一方面却承受着巨大的政治压力。"金瑞基金首席投资官Brendan Ahern在接受南方财经记者采访时表示。 在全球金融界瞩目的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 ...
美联储哈马克:未看到经济出现显著衰退的任何迹象。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 15:25
美联储哈马克:未看到经济出现显著衰退的任何迹象。 来源:滚动播报 ...
美关税持续冲击 日本7月出口创四年多最大跌幅
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-20 16:10
日本媒体和专家认为,美国对汽车类产品加征关税对日本出口影响巨大。为对冲美关税政策影响,日本 汽车制造商被迫降价,盈利空间被严重挤压。 美国4月起对日本进口汽车和零部件加征25%关税,对其他多数货品则课征10%关税,6月初又把钢铁进 口关税调高一倍至50%。汽车和零部件约占日本对美出口总额的1/3。丰田汽车本月稍早警告,美国关 税恐使该公司营运利润锐减1.4万亿日元。 美国关税持续冲击全球贸易,日本出口也受到沉重打击。最新数据显示,日本7月出口创下四年多来最 大跌幅。 日本财务省8月20日公布的7月贸易统计结果显示,7月出口额较去年同期下滑2.6%,跌幅大于市场原估 的2.1%,主要受汽车、汽车零件和钢铁拖累,创2021年2月以来最大跌幅。不过,出口量增加了1.2%, 显示出口商仍靠调降售价来吸收美国关税成本。因原油、煤炭和液化天然气进口均出现两位数下滑,进 口额同比减少7.5%至9.48万亿日元。7月日本贸易逆差达1175亿日元。 日本7月对美出口额同比减少10.1%,其中汽车和零部件出口额分别大减28.4%和17.4%。就出口量来 看,日本对美汽车出口只减少3.2%,可见车厂正自行吸收部分关税以支撑销售。 ...
高盛顶尖交易员:未来几个月美股的核心问题是“衰退和降息,谁站上风”
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-20 11:06
美股市场正行走于刀锋之上。一方面,美国就业市场的疲软信号愈发明确,经济失速的风险正在累积;另一方面,市场对美联储重启降息的预期也因此升温。 高盛认为,未来两个月将是决定性的观察期,这场增长与政策的拉锯战,将影响美股和债市的下一步走向。 据追风交易台消息,高盛顶尖交易员多米尼克·威尔逊(Dominic Wilson)在最新研报中写道, 当前投资的核心挑战在于,如何找到既能从市场预期的美联储 降息中获益,又能在美国深度经济衰退风险成为现实时提供保护的投资标的。 对于全球股市而言,这同样是一场微妙的平衡游戏。报告指出,只要能够避免深度下行风险,美股就可以继续"攀爬忧虑之墙"。然而,考虑到市场对增长放缓 的定价已较为充分,且衰退风险依然高企,股市的回调风险比以往更高。 同时,市场已重新定价美联储的宽松路径,9月降息的可能性很高。短期美债收益率仍有下行空间,并且在更激进的降息预期下,2年期与5年期美债收益率曲 线可能进一步陡峭化。 就业市场亮起红灯:转折点信号值得警惕 7月份的非农就业报告,尤其是对前几个月数据的大幅下修,彻底改变了游戏规则。高盛强调,这一变化已将市场和决策者的注意力引向了美联储双重使命中 的"就业"一 ...
海外策略周报:9月若美联储降息,全球或“Risk”-20250819
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-18 23:30
Core Insights - The current US economic growth shows signs of comprehensive slowdown, with a cooling labor market and weak inflation reinforcing market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [2][6][14] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will significantly impact the US dollar and US Treasury markets, with historical trends indicating that Treasury yields typically decline ahead of policy shifts [2][7][30] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global equity markets is structurally differentiated, primarily depending on the motivation behind the policy [2][8][30] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from the US indicates a broad weakening, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, marking the lowest monthly increase since October 2024 [6][14] - The unemployment rate has been on the rise, reaching 4.2% in July, further confirming the cooling labor market. Inflation data also shows weakness, with July's CPI growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8% [14][20] Interest Rate and Currency Dynamics - US Treasury yields are expected to decline ahead of the Federal Reserve's official interest rate cut, driven by the forward-looking nature of the bond market. Short-term Treasuries (e.g., 2-year) are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to long-term Treasuries (e.g., 10-year) [7][22][29] - The US dollar index typically weakens during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles. For instance, during the 2001 rate cut cycle, the dollar index fell by 13.34%, while it has already decreased by 3.20% since the first cut in 2024 [30][33] Equity Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have historically led to varied impacts on global equity markets, largely influenced by the underlying economic conditions. Passive easing in response to recession often results in significant declines in equity markets, while preemptive cuts in resilient economic conditions can support equity valuations [8][30][34] - In the context of the 2024 preemptive rate cuts, corporate earnings remain relatively robust, which has helped to improve market risk appetite and support equity markets [8][34] Recent Asset Movements - Major US stock indices have recently shown gains, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 2.20%, 2.14%, and 2.03% respectively. The healthcare, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains [5][37] - In the commodities market, LME zinc, copper, and Brent crude oil have seen increases, while gold and rebar steel have declined [5][37]
关税成本压力正加速向下游传导 美国中小企业可能出现倒闭潮
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-17 06:51
Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, exceeding market expectations, indicating renewed inflationary pressures in the upstream supply chain [1][3] - Experts warn that the cost pressures from tariffs are accelerating down the supply chain, potentially leading to a wave of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the U.S. [1][7] Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month in July, marking the largest rise since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, significantly higher than June's 2.3% and the market expectation of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers covered 22%. If tariffs continue to rise, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs by October [5] - Current tariff policies may lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an increase in inflation by 1% to 1.5% [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The likelihood of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters is estimated at 90% if current tariff policies remain unchanged, with a projected GDP decline of 4% [7] - SMEs are particularly vulnerable and may face a wave of bankruptcies if the economic downturn continues [7]
布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司:降息预期急转弯 英国经济数据重写剧本
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 19:17
Group 1 - The latest report from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [1] - In June, GDP growth accelerated to 0.4%, doubling previous forecasts, highlighting the economic resilience amid challenging conditions [1] - Consumer spending rebounded strongly, driven by the services sector, while manufacturing output also unexpectedly improved, providing a buffer against economic challenges [4] Group 2 - The unexpected economic resilience complicates monetary policy decisions, with inflation pressures easing on one hand and stronger-than-expected growth raising the threshold for policy adjustments on the other [8] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts this year have diminished, with rate futures indicating borrowing costs may stabilize at 3.5% next year [8] - The UK labor market shows mixed signals, with job losses smaller than initially anticipated since last autumn's fiscal adjustments, supporting consumer spending but raising concerns for monetary policy shifts [8] Group 3 - Retail sector performance serves as a key indicator of economic health, with John Lewis reporting a 12% increase in home goods sales and a 9% rise in fashion sales, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [10] - However, the British Retail Consortium's survey revealed a significant drop in retail sales balance from +24 to -6 in July, the largest decline since last winter, suggesting that the recovery may not be stable [10] - As the third quarter begins, the UK faces a delicate turning point, with positive growth data tempered by underlying challenges that may not be immediately visible [10]
关税成本传导效应显现 美国中小企业或现倒闭潮
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-16 14:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of rising tariffs and producer price index (PPI) on U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), suggesting a potential wave of bankruptcies as these businesses struggle to absorb increased costs [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [2][3]. - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3% in July, up from 2.3% in June and exceeding the market forecast of 2.6% [2][3]. - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, compared to 2.6% in the previous month [2][3]. Tariff Cost Distribution - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, consumers 22%, and foreign exporters 14%. Projections indicate that by October, consumers may bear 67% of the costs, while foreign companies and U.S. firms would bear 25% and 8%, respectively [5][6]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict that tariffs could lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an inflation increase of 1% to 1.5% [5][6]. Impact on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises - SMEs are particularly vulnerable to the rising costs associated with tariffs, with experts estimating a 90% chance of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters, potentially leading to a 4% decline in GDP [6]. - The lack of operational capital in SMEs makes it difficult for them to absorb additional costs, leading to warnings of widespread bankruptcies among retailers if current tariff policies persist [6].