Report Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Global concerns about interest rate hikes have eased in the short term, but tail risks in crude oil still remain. The situation in Iran has been volatile, with the conflict escalating and then showing signs of cooling. The conflict mainly affects the crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices have driven up the prices of oil - chemical products and oilseeds, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession. The disruption of natural gas supply in the Middle East may have a more profound impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% on March 19. Powell said he would not leave the council before the investigation ended and would not cut interest rates until inflation improved. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "interest rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged, and the European Central Bank maintained the interest rate at 2% for the sixth consecutive time. The euro - zone inflation rate soared to 2.5% in March, and the expectation of interest rate hikes increased significantly [2]. - China's exports and imports in February increased by 39.6% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. The growth rates of catering and upgraded consumer goods were leading. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size from January to February increased by 6.3% year - on - year, while real estate investment and new commercial housing sales area decreased. China's official manufacturing PMI in March rose to 50.4, and non - manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, both better than expected [3]. - In the short term, the situation in Iran and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices. If oil prices continue to rise, it will drive up the prices of oil - chemical products; if the situation eases, stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals have strong allocation value. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. Section Summaries Market Analysis - The situation in Iran has been volatile. After the US and Israel's air strikes on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. On March 19, the conflict in the Middle East escalated again, with Israel and Iran attacking key energy facilities. The situation then cooled down. On March 25, the US proposed a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement to end the war with Iran. On March 28, the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched ballistic missiles at southern Israel, increasing the risk of the Red Sea's Mandeb Strait. As of March 31, Trump set a negotiation deadline of 8:00 on April 7, and US Secretary of State Rubio said the Iran war would last 2 - 4 weeks. Iran's parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Global Interest Rate Trends - On March 19, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%. Powell said he would not leave the council before the investigation ended and would not cut interest rates until inflation improved. The US Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing for Kevin Warsh, the Fed chairman nominee, as early as the week of April 13. On March 30, Powell said the Fed's interest rate was in a "favorable position" and could ignore the oil - price shock related to Iran but should be vigilant about changes in inflation expectations. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate, removed the "interest rate cut" wording, and was "ready to take action" against inflation. The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged, and the European Central Bank maintained the interest rate at 2% for the sixth consecutive time. The euro - zone inflation rate soared to 2.5% in March, and the expectation of interest rate hikes increased significantly [2]. Domestic Economic Situation - China's exports and imports in February increased by 39.6% and 13.8% year - on - year respectively. The growth rates of catering and upgraded consumer goods were leading. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size from January to February increased by 6.3% year - on - year, while real estate investment and new commercial housing sales area decreased. China's official manufacturing PMI in March rose to 50.4, and non - manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, both better than expected. The central bank's first - quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized the need to play the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies and strengthen monetary policy regulation [3]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the situation in Iran and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices. If oil prices continue to rise, it will drive up the prices of oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol; if the situation eases, stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals have strong allocation value. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair. The oilseeds in the agricultural products are also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. Important News - Iran's parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rials, banning US and Israeli ships from passing through, maintaining Iran's and its armed forces' dominant position, banning countries participating in unilateral sanctions against Iran from passing through, and cooperating with Oman to formulate relevant legal frameworks [6]. - From the evening of March 30 to noon on March 31, Tehran was attacked by two rounds of air strikes, causing explosions and short - term power outages in some areas. The US - Israel attack on Iran's Qeshm Island paralyzed a seawater desalination plant [6]. - US Defense Secretary Hedges said on March 31 that the next few days would be decisive for the Middle East conflict, and there was a large - scale desertion phenomenon in the Iranian armed forces [6]. - On March 31, China and Pakistan put forward a five - point initiative to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East: immediately stop hostilities, start peace talks as soon as possible, ensure the safety of non - military targets, ensure the safety of sea lanes, and ensure the primary status of the UN Charter [1][7]. - The euro - zone CPI annual rate in March was 2.5%, with an expected value of 2.6% and a previous value of 1.90% [7]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4, with an expected value of 50.1 and a previous value of 49 [7]. - The central bank's first - quarter monetary policy meeting in 2026 proposed to play the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level targets [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic recovery in Q1 is evident, with the March PMI returning to the expansion range, but there are still structural contradictions and risks from geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience [3]. - The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but remains volatile due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [5]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6]. - The container shipping market for European routes is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [9]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies, and their trends vary [11][12][16][22][26][30][36][40][55][59][65] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: In January - February, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.0%. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the US and Iran having complex interactions. The central bank's monetary policy committee held its Q1 meeting, and Japan warned about the yen's decline. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI all returned to the expansion range [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: China's economic recovery is certain, but there are structural problems and risks from geopolitical conflicts. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong due to the weakening of the US dollar and China's economic resilience. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term but volatile. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][3][5][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [4]. Commodities New Energy - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract decreased by 8.40% day - on - day. The downstream enterprises maintain a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices. In the short - term, price fluctuations are large due to macro - level factors, but the long - term demand growth logic remains unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The silicon - based industrial chain is under pressure. Industrial silicon fluctuates widely between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon is still in a downward channel but with a narrowing decline [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The domestic and foreign aluminum markets show a pattern of "strong aluminum and weak alumina". The macro - environment and fundamentals are in a game, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the war situation. The market shows a pattern of "external strength and internal weakness", and the price is affected by multiple factors such as inventory and supply [18][19][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [22][23][24]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounds and then enters a wait - and - see state. The main contradiction lies in the macro - level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area is unexpectedly reduced, which supports the external market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [26][27]. - **Oils**: The Indonesian government's B50 policy is expected to be implemented, which boosts the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are sufficient but in a de - stocking trend, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The crude oil price drops due to the news of a possible cease - fire. The market is affected by multiple factors, and there is still great uncertainty [30][31]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and the low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium drops significantly. The shortage of blending components still supports the price [31][32]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to position control [32][33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium are oscillating strongly. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed monetary policy, and supply - demand relationships. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rise strongly. The market is affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, Fed monetary policy, and economic data. It is recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the medium - to - long - term [37][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory. The offset paper futures price is relatively stable. It is recommended to trade pulp futures in the short - term and try low - buying strategies for offset paper [40][41]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is supported by the expected geopolitical premium and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. It is expected to be in a short - term range - bound and strong trend [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are affected by the Middle East situation and supply - demand relationships. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is limited. The prices are expected to be supported [43][44][46]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The supply is tightened, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [47]. - **Rubber**: The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are rising. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical impacts [48][51][52]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price is expected to be affected by supply - demand relationships and macro - factors [55][56]. - **Glass**: The glass market is affected by factors such as cold - repair expectations, high inventory, and cost. The price is expected to be limited by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to macro - and emotional factors [58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is supported by the cost of furnace materials, but the high inventory and weak supply - demand limit the upward space. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited height [59][60]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is a mix of long and short factors. The price is supported by cost and spot tightness in the short - term but is suppressed by demand and supply increment expectations in the long - term [61]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price drops due to weak market sentiment and over - valuation. The supply is abundant, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to have limited downward space after risk release [62][63]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fall back. The cost support logic still exists, and silicon manganese may be stronger than silicon iron [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The pig price continues to bottom out. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The expected US cotton planting area is higher than expected. The new - season global supply is expected to decrease, but the inflation in the US and the high domestic - foreign cotton price spread may limit the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation pattern due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67][69]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the festival, with limited upward space. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract [69]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is expected to be strongly oscillating, supported by the scarcity of delivery products in the 05 contract [78]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and oil mill demand [79][80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation and bottom - building pattern due to the loose supply - demand relationship [80][82]. - **Logs**: The log futures price falls due to the easing of geopolitical sentiment. The price is supported by factors such as inventory consumption and stable import costs, and it is recommended to trade in the range [82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month. The fundamental factors of natural rubber present a situation of both support and pressure. The macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, but the upward trend of synthetic rubber restricts the downward space of natural rubber prices [8][90][91] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - In March 2026, the price of the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber fluctuated in the range of 15,885 - 17,600 yuan/ton, with a high - level oscillation. It dropped significantly after two surges at the beginning of the month and rebounded in the late month, with a large overall decline in the month. As of March 31, 2026, it closed at 16,345 yuan/ton, down 810 points or 4.72% for the month [6][13] 现货 Price - As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous month; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous month. As of March 30, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,560 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous month [17][20] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with the previous month. As of March 31, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 190 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton narrower than the previous month [24] Domestic and Foreign Prices of Natural Rubber - As of March 31, the domestic price of natural rubber dropped significantly compared with the previous month, while the foreign price rose slightly [28] Important Market Information - The US and Iran are in talks to end the military operation in Iran, but there are differences in positions between the two sides. Iran plans to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the continued jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. The US PPI in February rose 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in February rose as expected. The global economic growth rate is expected to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. China's economic data shows that the CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the PPI decreased 0.9% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased 15.2% year - on - year. The auto sales in February decreased, but the auto export increased [32][33][34][35][36][37][38] Supply - side Situation - As of January 31, 2026, the production in the main producing areas of Thailand and Malaysia increased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia, India, and Vietnam decreased slightly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period with zero production. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in January 2026 was 990,500 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons or 1.71% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China was 1.542 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. As of February 28, 2026, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 7,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [42][47][51] Demand - side Situation - As of March 26, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.24%, down 0.01% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 70.75%, up 0.03% from the previous month. As of February 28, 2026, China's monthly auto production was 1.6724 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.73%. The monthly auto sales were 1.8052 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 23.07%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 73,553 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.18%. As of December 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 106.263 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. As of February 28, 2026, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 56.07 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4%. The auto sales in major global countries in February 2026 showed different trends [56][59][64][67][71][74][78] Inventory - side Situation - As of March 31, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,410 tons, an increase of 10,940 tons from the previous month. As of March 22, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 685,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons or 1.18% from the previous period [82][87] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic rubber - tapping is gradually starting smoothly. The raw material supply is generally tight, and the purchase price continues to rise, which supports the rubber price. Demand: In March, with the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, the market trading atmosphere gradually recovered, and the operating rate has remained at a high level recently. However, the terminal auto market is not performing well. Inventory: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly last month, the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased slightly week - on - week, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week [88][89] 后市 Outlook - The main contract of domestic natural rubber futures oscillated at a high level in March 2026, with a large overall decline in the month. In the future, the macro - sentiment is weak due to geopolitical risks, and the supply pressure has been alleviated, with cost support for the rubber price. The demand will form a certain support, but the terminal consumption is average, and the continuous inventory accumulation in Qingdao exerts pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the next month [90][91] Views and Operation Strategies - This month's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, consider a range - bound operation; for arbitrage and options, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [92]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is taking a cautious approach to current economic challenges, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, focusing on the labor market rather than raising interest rates immediately [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The current economic environment is characterized by significant supply shocks, particularly from oil prices and geopolitical events, which complicate the decision-making process for interest rate adjustments [2][11]. - Unlike 2022, when fiscal stimulus supported consumer spending, the current situation lacks similar financial backing, leading to concerns about real income and consumer spending contraction [3][5]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is not as robust as it was previously, with a notable decline in employment growth outside of specific sectors like health and education, which are not reflective of broader economic cycles [14]. - There is a lack of wage pressure from the current inflation shock, as the labor market does not exhibit the same bargaining power seen in previous decades [4][12]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The inflationary pressures from food and fuel are expected to impact real incomes and consumer spending negatively, suggesting that raising interest rates may not be the appropriate response [5][10]. - Historical context is provided, referencing the 2008 financial crisis, where premature interest rate hikes contributed to economic downturns, indicating that similar mistakes should be avoided in the current climate [6][7]. Future Expectations - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more than twice within the year, reflecting a shift in monetary policy in response to economic conditions [15][17]. - The potential for the administration to consider export controls on energy is also mentioned, highlighting ongoing concerns about energy prices and their impact on inflation [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, geopolitical risks boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, weakening the liquidity premium of precious metals and hitting the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. Gold prices will face adjustment pressure until the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility [4]. - In the medium - term, affected by factors such as international trade chaos, a gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, which weaken the liquidity premium of precious metals and hit the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. In March, London gold rebounded to around $4,500 per ounce after adjusting to $4,100 per ounce. Before the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, gold prices will face adjustment pressure, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. London gold shows support around $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility. This week, pay attention to the Iran war situation, US March employment data, global March PMI data, and the Fed Chairman's speech [4]. - **Medium - term Trends**: After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed Chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. International trade turmoil and Middle East geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Affected by multiple factors, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions, and long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Risks**: The risk of the Iran war expanding has increased. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked Israel for the first time since the outbreak of the war, and the US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The US has only destroyed about one - third of Iran's missile arsenal, and the situation of another one - third is unclear [17]. - **Shipping Restrictions**: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has banned shipping to or from ports of Israel's allies and supporters, and the Hormuz Strait is closed [17]. - **Central Bank Statements**: Richmond Fed President Barkin believes it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged due to the US - Iran conflict and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson warns that the long - term high inflation rate in the US may turn the commodity shock caused by the Iran war into a more serious problem [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in aluminum and lithium due to supply disruptions caused by Middle Eastern conflicts [4]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a notable increase in aluminum and lithium prices driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions [4][6]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise in the long term due to increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, suggesting it as a favorable investment opportunity [4]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to significant supply disruptions, particularly in aluminum production, which could further increase prices [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Market Review - As of March 28, the SW Non-Ferrous Metals Index increased by 2.78%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which decreased by 1.09% and 1.41% respectively [6][7]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have decreased by 1.39% and 2.75% respectively [6]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals Price Review (a) Base Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin have shown increases of 1.62%, 0.21%, 2.48%, 1.13%, 3.01%, and 5.37% respectively compared to the previous week [17][18]. - The SHFE copper price is at 95,930 CNY/ton, while LME copper is at 12,141 USD/ton [18]. (b) Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have decreased by 3.17% and increased by 0.23% respectively, with gold priced at 998.66 CNY/gram [46][47]. - The COMEX gold price is at 4,490 USD/ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.86% [47]. (c) Rare and Minor Metals - Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate have increased by 8.47% and 7.96% respectively, with current prices at 160,000 CNY/ton and 156,000 CNY/ton [57][59]. - The price of neodymium oxide has increased by 1.06% to 712,500 CNY/ton [59]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Barrick Mining has postponed the development of the Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan due to safety concerns stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts, adding uncertainty to the project timeline [83]. - Rio Tinto announced that the Resolution copper mine in Arizona is expected to start production in the mid-2030s, while the Diavik diamond mine in Canada will close after 23 years of operation [84].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of inflation and monetary policy in the context of the Chinese economy and global economic conditions, particularly focusing on the effects of high oil prices and input inflation on economic growth and monetary policy responses. Key Points and Arguments Inflation and Economic Indicators - March PPI is expected to turn positive at 1% year-on-year, while April CPI may rise to 1.47% due to base effects [1] - Export growth of 22% year-on-year in January-February has contributed to manufacturing recovery, but high oil prices (over $150) could lead to a 5%-8% decline in global GDP, triggering an input recession [1][2] - The divergence in interest rates between the US and China reflects the independent monetary policy stance of China, with short-term US rates rising rapidly while Chinese short-term rates are declining [1][4] Market Reactions to Input Inflation - The market's pricing logic for input inflation focuses on the slope and persistence of inflation, with oil prices rising approximately 42.8% month-on-month in March, leading to an expected PPI increase of 1.3% [2] - Current interest rates are close to market expectations, indicating that the market has adequately priced in March's inflation, although some participants believe there is still room for rates to rise due to uncertainties surrounding the duration of the conflict [2] Risks and Misconceptions - The market may overestimate the economy's ability to withstand high oil prices and underestimate the transmission pressure on Chinese exports [3] - Input inflation, driven by supply-side factors like rising oil prices, can suppress demand and potentially lead to stagflation, with predictions of a significant global economic downturn if oil prices remain high [3] - Optimistic views suggest that China may experience a "grab export" phenomenon similar to the pandemic period, but this is contradicted by the reality that rising oil prices will increase production costs, affecting China's competitive advantage [3] Domestic Monetary Policy Considerations - The domestic central bank's approach to input inflation differs fundamentally from that of developed countries, focusing more on economic growth rather than solely on inflation metrics [4] - Recent policy signals include a significant MLF operation on March 25, 2026, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite inflationary pressures [4] - The central bank's intention to keep monetary policy accommodative is reflected in the continued decline of short-term interest rates, contrasting with the rising short-term rates in the US [4] Additional Important Content - The potential for overseas central banks to raise interest rates in response to input inflation could lead to reduced total demand, significantly impacting China's export-driven growth [3] - The overall economic environment is different from the expansive fiscal and monetary conditions during the pandemic, limiting the effectiveness of similar strategies in the current context [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the U.S. economy, with a revised GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2026 dropping from 3% to 1.75%, below the trend level of 2.3% [1][2] Core Insights - The primary reasons for the downward adjustment in GDP growth include the fading effects of fiscal stimulus and rising oil prices, which are expected to impact economic performance significantly [1][2] - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 3% to 2.5% by the end of 2026, as the impact of tariffs diminishes, offsetting the transmission of energy prices to the service sector [1][2] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026, with a notable risk of further increases if economic growth slows due to energy price shocks [1][3] Economic Growth Outlook - The report maintains a basic judgment of steady economic growth but expresses caution regarding both growth and inflation, particularly noting a slowdown in economic growth expected in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The anticipated economic growth rate for the second half of 2026 is adjusted downwards by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, primarily due to the combined effects of fiscal stimulus fading and rising oil prices [2] Inflation Expectations - Core PCE inflation is expected to decline significantly, with the report projecting a drop to 2.5% by the end of 2026, despite a recent upward adjustment of 30 to 40 basis points [2][4] - The report highlights that the tariff effects, which previously contributed to inflation, will diminish significantly by mid-2026, further supporting the decline in core inflation [2] Labor Market Trends - The current unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, with expectations of a slight increase to 4.6% by the end of 2026, driven by economic growth falling below trend levels [3] - The impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market is noted, with an estimated monthly job loss of 5,000 to 10,000 positions, although long-term job creation is expected to offset these losses [3] Recession Probability - The probability of economic recession has been raised from 25% to 30%, attributed to the anticipated rise in unemployment and economic growth falling below trend levels [4][5] - Historical data suggests that a rise in unemployment exceeding 0.5 percentage points is often associated with economic recessions, reinforcing the revised recession probability [4] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The report suggests that the market has shifted its expectations regarding interest rates, with a forecast of two rate cuts in September and December 2026, delayed from earlier predictions [6] - The uncertainty surrounding core inflation and labor market strength indicates that the Federal Reserve may maintain rates longer than previously expected, with a potential for significant rate cuts if recession risks materialize [6]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2500 points, a decrease of 4.80%, and the KOSPI index falling nearly 4% [1][3]. Geopolitical Tensions - Analysts noted that the ongoing tensions in Iran have led to rising oil prices, negatively impacting Japan and South Korea, which heavily rely on energy imports from the Middle East [2]. - U.S. President Trump expressed intentions to "seize" Iranian oil, indicating a potential military escalation, while also mentioning that negotiations for a ceasefire might progress [2][6]. Stock Market Reactions - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets saw substantial drops, with individual stocks like SoftBank Group down nearly 8% and Toyota Motors down close to 5% [3]. - Investors are preparing for a prolonged conflict in the Gulf, which has already caused record monthly increases in oil prices and heightened inflation risks globally [3]. Economic Implications - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, potentially reaching $150 per barrel if the situation persists for another month, impacting industrial energy consumers [4]. - Rising inflation expectations have prompted investors to adjust their outlook on interest rates, with the market now anticipating a tightening of 12 basis points from the Federal Reserve this year [4][5]. Upcoming Economic Data - Upcoming U.S. retail sales, manufacturing, and employment data are expected to provide insights into the economic situation, with March employment numbers projected to increase by 55,000 [5]. - In the EU, March's annual inflation rate is anticipated to rise from 1.9% in February to 2.7% [5]. Military Actions and Responses - Reports indicate that an Iranian petrochemical plant was attacked, and Israel has conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure [6][8]. - Iranian officials have stated their readiness to respond to any military actions from the U.S., emphasizing that their military operations will focus on U.S. bases and assets rather than Arab nations [7][8].