Workflow
劳动参与率下滑
icon
Search documents
2025中国人口老龄化趋势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 16:16
Group 1: Current Status of Aging Population - As of the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China will exceed 300 million, reaching 310.31 million, accounting for 22.0% of the total population [1] - The population aged 65 and above will reach 220.23 million, making up 15.6% of the total population [1] - China has entered a moderately aging society, with the aging population becoming a key factor affecting national development [1] Group 2: Characteristics of Aging Population - China has the largest elderly population globally, with approximately 220 million people aged 65 and above, representing one-fourth of the world's elderly population [3] - The aging process in China is significantly faster than in developed countries, with only 21 years taken to transition from aging (7%) to deep aging (14%) [5] Group 3: Future Trends and Projections - By 2030, the elderly population in China is expected to reach 380 million, and by 2035, it will increase to around 420 million, accounting for over 30% of the total population [13] - By 2050, the total population is projected to decline to 1.25 billion, with the elderly population proportion reaching approximately 37.4% [13] Group 4: Regional Disparities - There are significant regional differences in aging levels, with Liaoning having the highest proportion of people aged 65 and above at 21.06% in 2023, while Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Tibet have not yet reached 10% [14] - The aging population is more pronounced in rural areas compared to urban areas, with the elderly population proportion in rural areas increasing from 10.1% in 2010 to 19.3% in 2022 [10] Group 5: Economic and Social Impacts - The demographic dividend is diminishing as the population from the baby boom era exits the labor market, leading to a decline in the working-age population from 1.01 billion in 2013 to 960 million in 2023 [18] - The elderly dependency ratio reached 22.5% in 2023, indicating that for every five working-age individuals, one elderly person is supported [19] - The pension burden is increasing, with the ratio of insured workers to retirees declining from 3.2:1 in 2010 to 2.7:1 in 2022 [20] Group 6: Healthcare System Impacts - The prevalence of chronic diseases is rising, with chronic diseases being the leading cause of death among urban and rural residents, affecting over 300 million people nationwide [23] - The total medical expenses are increasing rapidly due to the aging population and the high incidence of chronic diseases [24] - There is a growing demand for integrated medical and elderly care services, which will become essential for meeting the diverse health needs of the elderly population [26] Group 7: Employment Market Impacts - The supply of labor is shrinking as the proportion of elderly individuals increases and the working-age population decreases [27] - The overall labor participation rate is declining due to lower participation rates among the elderly [27] - The service sector, particularly in elderly care, healthcare, and wellness, is expected to create numerous job opportunities, shifting the employment structure towards "silver economy services" [27]