2025年底中央经济工作会议将"深化拓展'人工智能+'"纳入2026年重点任务，人工智能技术快速发展引发的就业焦虑、人才竞争、区域发展分化 等相关议题备受关注。为此，证券时报记者专访全国政协委员、上海交通大学安泰经济管理学院特聘教授陆铭。 在陆铭看来，AI对我国就业市场的冲击以结构性分化为核心特征，而非单向的替代冲击；AI时代正重塑劳动力价值排序与城市引才逻辑，人机 协同能力成为人才的核心竞争力；AI发展将进一步强化都市圈集聚效应，同时也为中小城市带来差异化发展机遇，并未改变"集聚中走向平衡"的 区域发展规律；面向"十五五"开局之年，需加快教育与职业培训体系的系统性变革，方能实现技术进步与就业稳定、城市发展与人口流动的协同 发展。 正视AI就业焦虑 培养不可替代核心能力 证券时报：伴随AI能力迭代，社会就业担忧加剧。请问当前AI对我国就业的冲击，是以结构性替代为主还是创造性增长为主？哪些行业、哪些 技能群体正面临最直接的就业压力？ 陆铭： AI对就业的冲击呈现显著的结构性分化。其强大的可编码信息处理能力，对重复性劳动、标准化信息处理类岗位冲击最直接，包括初级 程序员、医学影像阅片、法律卷宗整理、服装图像后期处 ...

Group 1: Current Status of Aging Population - As of the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China will exceed 300 million, reaching 310.31 million, accounting for 22.0% of the total population [1] - The population aged 65 and above will reach 220.23 million, making up 15.6% of the total population [1] - China has entered a moderately aging society, with the aging population becoming a key factor affecting national development [1] Group 2: Characteristics of Aging Population - China has the largest elderly population globally, with approximately 220 million people aged 65 and above, representing one-fourth of the world's elderly population [3] - The aging process in China is significantly faster than in developed countries, with only 21 years taken to transition from aging (7%) to deep aging (14%) [5] Group 3: Future Trends and Projections - By 2030, the elderly population in China is expected to reach 380 million, and by 2035, it will increase to around 420 million, accounting for over 30% of the total population [13] - By 2050, the total population is projected to decline to 1.25 billion, with the elderly population proportion reaching approximately 37.4% [13] Group 4: Regional Disparities - There are significant regional differences in aging levels, with Liaoning having the highest proportion of people aged 65 and above at 21.06% in 2023, while Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Tibet have not yet reached 10% [14] - The aging population is more pronounced in rural areas compared to urban areas, with the elderly population proportion in rural areas increasing from 10.1% in 2010 to 19.3% in 2022 [10] Group 5: Economic and Social Impacts - The demographic dividend is diminishing as the population from the baby boom era exits the labor market, leading to a decline in the working-age population from 1.01 billion in 2013 to 960 million in 2023 [18] - The elderly dependency ratio reached 22.5% in 2023, indicating that for every five working-age individuals, one elderly person is supported [19] - The pension burden is increasing, with the ratio of insured workers to retirees declining from 3.2:1 in 2010 to 2.7:1 in 2022 [20] Group 6: Healthcare System Impacts - The prevalence of chronic diseases is rising, with chronic diseases being the leading cause of death among urban and rural residents, affecting over 300 million people nationwide [23] - The total medical expenses are increasing rapidly due to the aging population and the high incidence of chronic diseases [24] - There is a growing demand for integrated medical and elderly care services, which will become essential for meeting the diverse health needs of the elderly population [26] Group 7: Employment Market Impacts - The supply of labor is shrinking as the proportion of elderly individuals increases and the working-age population decreases [27] - The overall labor participation rate is declining due to lower participation rates among the elderly [27] - The service sector, particularly in elderly care, healthcare, and wellness, is expected to create numerous job opportunities, shifting the employment structure towards "silver economy services" [27]