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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the current situation remains poor. Iranian shutdown is slower than expected, and there should still be high imports in November. The contradiction in contract 01 is difficult to resolve. The port sanctions issue is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upward momentum, and the downside space depends on the inland situation. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. In 2025, new device pressure is high, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [5]. - For polypropylene, the upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on contract 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [5]. - For PVC, the basis of contract 01 is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain changes. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 1995 to 2057, with a daily increase of 4 on the 25th compared to the previous day. The import profit, main contract basis, and other indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had minor changes. For example, the main contract futures price decreased from 6833 to 6762, with a daily decrease of 31 on the 25th compared to the previous day. The two - oil inventory decreased from 70 to 11701, with a daily decrease of 20 on the 25th [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 5920 to 5920 (with a change process in between), and the main contract futures price decreased from 6434 to 6317, with a daily decrease of 55 on the 25th compared to the previous day. The two - oil inventory decreased from 70 to 15668, with a daily decrease of 65 on the 25th [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 on some days, and the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and other regions had minor changes. The basis of high - end delivery products remained at - 90 on some days and then changed to - 70 [5].