能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 9 月 26 日 星期五 苯乙烯基本面偏弱，跟随原油成本波动 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：9 月 25 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.43%，报 6958 元/吨，基差 -18（-15 吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 0.25%，报 5922 吨。 成本：9 月 25 日布油主力收盘 65.0 美元/桶（+1.6 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 68.5 美元/桶（+1.5 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5885 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 苯乙烯库存 18.7 万吨（+2.8 万吨），环比累库 17.3%，苯乙烯转为 累库。纯苯港口库存 10.7 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 20.1%。 供应：苯乙烯已有装置开始检修，开工率及供应如期减少。目前， 苯乙烯周产量 34.6 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 73.2%（- 0.2%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.2%（- 6.49%），ABS 产能利用率 70%（+0.2%），PS 产能利用率 59.1%（- 2.1%）。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of devices, the de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, the long - term inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production has a slight reduction in load, coal - based production remains stable, and overseas devices have both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, the port may gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the device start - up rate has increased, production and sales have improved, and inventory has decreased. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the yarn end may slow down, but the start - up rate remains high due to good spot benefits, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its related products, the prices and production profits of relevant products have changed, and the start - up rates of some products such as EPS and ABS also show certain trends [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device reduced load, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased slightly, polyester load was basically stable, inventory increased slightly, the basis weakened, and spot processing fees were slightly repaired. PX domestic start - up rate decreased, overseas devices operated stably, PXN decreased month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced load, coal - based start - up remained stable, overseas devices had both maintenance and restart. Arrivals remained stable while shipments were dull, and port inventory increased slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, the basis weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio decreased [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their device loads, and the start - up rate increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Situation**: Production and sales improved month - on - month, inventory continued to decrease. At the demand end, the start - up rate of the yarn end remained stable, raw material stocking increased, and finished product inventory decreased month - on - month, but the benefits were weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber, showed certain fluctuations, and the price of Thai cup rubber was relatively stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national explicit inventory was stable [1]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and other products changed daily, and the production profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the restart of international TA plants has led to a rise in production, a slight increase in polyester load, stable inventory, weak basis, and low spot processing fees. With the restart of plants, TA de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are at a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may offer opportunities to expand processing fees [1]. - Regarding MEG, domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production has a slight increase in load, overall load rises, overseas plants have a mix of maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals this week, port inventory accumulates slightly. Downstream stocking levels rise, and the basis weakens. New MEG plants start production earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. Future arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventory may gradually accumulate, but current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the production of some plants increases, leading to a rise in overall production. Sales improve, and inventory decreases slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking decreases, and finished product inventory decreases. Given the high inventory of polyester yarn finished products, the speed of increasing production may slow down. Although the spot profit of staple fiber is good and production remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - In the natural rubber market, the national inventory remains stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market data**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly, PX prices and processing spreads changed, PTA prices increased slightly, spot processing fees were at a low level, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(-77). The PTA device of Zhongtai Chemical with a capacity of 1.2 million tons was under maintenance [1]. - **Market situation**: International TA plants restarted, production increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory was stable, basis was weak, and spot processing fees were low. PX domestic production increased, overseas plants restarted, PXN remained stable, disproportionation benefits remained, and isomerization benefits weakened. The price difference between American and Asian aromatics was stable [1]. - **Future outlook**: TA de - stocking slows down. Given the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees are at a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may offer opportunities to expand processing fees [1]. MEG - **Market data**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, MEG prices were relatively stable, the basis for 01 was around (+78), and the Xinjiang Tianye plant with a capacity of 600,000 tons restarted [1]. - **Market situation**: Domestic oil - based production was stable, coal - based production had a slight increase in load, overall load rose, overseas plants had a mix of maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals this week, port inventory accumulated slightly, downstream stocking levels rose, and the basis weakened [1]. - **Future outlook**: New MEG plants start production earlier than expected, and valuations are significantly compressed. Future arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventory may gradually accumulate, but current inventory is not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market data**: From September 1 - 18, 2025, spot prices were around 6462, and the market basis for 10 was around - 40. The production of Sanfangxiang and Yizheng increased, and the overall production rate reached 94.4% [1]. - **Market situation**: Production increased, sales improved, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished product inventory decreased. The profit of polyester yarn was weak [1]. - **Future outlook**: Given the high inventory of polyester yarn finished products, the speed of increasing production may slow down. Although the spot profit of staple fiber is good and production remains high, inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market data**: From September 1 - 18, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber decreased, and the price of Thai cup rubber was stable [1]. - **Market situation**: National inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber was stable [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [1]. Styrene and Its Derivatives - **Market data**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS changed. For example, the price of styrene in some regions decreased, and the production profit of some products also changed [1]. - **Market situation**: The production profit of some styrene - related products changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed certain fluctuations [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with low processing fees, additional maintenance has increased. Although the sales of filament are weak, significant further production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The bottle - chip inventory has been continuously decreasing with low operation. Overall, the polyester operation is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. There is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [1]. - For MEG, there are some postponed restarts in domestic plants and unexpected overseas maintenance. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short - term with limited inventory accumulation pressure. The situation is good with decent profits. In the long - term, inventory accumulation is expected due to the return from maintenance and new plant commissioning, and the valuation is greatly affected by the cost side. It should be viewed as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn has been continuously decreasing, the downstream operation may continue to rise. Although the supply of staple fiber may also increase, the overall space is limited. Considering the low processing fees on the futures market, there is a chance to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but shows no seasonal decline. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price increased by 10, and the processing fee decreased by 13. The average daily transaction basis was 2509(-13) [1]. - **Device Changes**: Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 million - ton plant restarted, Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton plant restarted, and Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton plant was under maintenance [1]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, the inner - market price decreased by 6, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37.68. The basis was around 09(+87) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shenghong's 1.9 million - ton plant stopped operating due to an accident [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 50, and the profit increased by 43. The spot price was around 6468, and the market basis was around 09 - 0 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Ningbo Dafa's technical - renovation plant resumed operation, and the operation rate slightly increased to 91.1% [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 25, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 410. The weekly changes were 35 and 470 respectively [4]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [4]. Sty，rene - **Price Changes**: From August 11 - 15, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, and the domestic profit increased by 28 [6].