Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main ethylene glycol (EG) contract was 4,109 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,183 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis in East China was 84 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$52/ton, up $8/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -586 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 million tons (up 3.8 million tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 48.3 million tons (down 1 million tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 19.8 million tons, and at the secondary ports 4.5 million tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load was operating at a high level. Overseas, there were still significant supply losses, with two or more Saudi Arabian plants shut down or operating at low loads. However, the supply would be postponed in the short term due to issues with certain vessels related to the US. On the demand side, the polyester downstream market had moderately improved with the recent cooling, boosting market sentiment [1]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Despite the high supply and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the price had fallen to near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs had boosted market sentiment [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. 4. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China, but specific analysis content is not provided in the given text [1][3][4]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG are mentioned, along with their month - on - month changes. The report also includes data on the total EG load and the syngas - based EG load, but no detailed analysis is given [1][3][4]. International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no detailed analysis is provided [3][4][17]. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The report includes data on the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. However, no in - depth analysis is provided [3][4][18]. Inventory Data - The inventory data of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China are presented, including the data from CCF and Longzhong, and the planned arrivals this week are also given. The report also mentions the inventory at specific ports such as Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided [1][3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the ethylene glycol (EG) industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation of EG shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with attention focused on the commissioning time of new plants. The EG market has a short - term suppression from warehouse receipts and a fourth - quarter inventory accumulation expectation, but the low inventory limits the downward space. In September, the spot is tight [1][3] - The supply side in China has the domestic ethylene glycol load returning to a high level, with the syngas load expected to decline in September. Overseas, there are still many supply losses. The import volume from September to October may be revised downwards. The demand side has a slow recovery, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, with the 9 - month EG balance sheet showing a slight reduction and the main port inventory expected to remain low [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,319 yuan/ton (a change of - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.07% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,440 yuan/ton (a change of - 5 yuan/ton or - 0.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 135 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 70 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 48 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no specific data is provided [19] Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The demand for EG is currently recovering slowly, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 44.9 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 million tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 37.6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.7 million tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 102,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 93,000 tons, with a moderate arrival volume [1]