化工日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘风险加剧，关注中东货源 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3925元/吨（较前一交易日变动+222元/吨，幅度+6.00%），EG华东市场现货 价3750元/吨（较前一交易日变动+145元/吨，幅度+4.02%），EG华东现货基差-69元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-65美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1102 元/吨（环比-30元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为100.2万吨（环比+2.0万吨）；据CCF数据，本周华 东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，副港到港量1.6万吨。有所减少，预计主港库存平稳。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位，高供应下库存压力仍大，3月后或有缓解；海外供应方 面，当前海外EG负荷降至低位，进口压力有所缓解。需求端，节后需求陆续恢复中，当前国内外纺服库存均不算 高，关注下游补库存动作以及名义关税下降后纺服出口订单情况。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多，3月基本面边际好转，关注地缘冲突下伊朗和中东进口货源变动 ...

EG国内负荷高位进一步提升 化工日报 | 2026-02-27 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3700元/吨（较前一交易日变动-47元/吨，幅度-1.25%），EG华东市场现货价 3612元/吨（较前一交易日变动-46元/吨，幅度-1.26%），EG华东现货基差-88元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-60美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-998 元/吨（环比-5元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为98.2万吨（环比+4.7万吨）；据CCF数据，2.9~2.23 华东主港实际到港总数15.7万吨，副港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数12.5万吨，副港到港量0.7万吨。 预计主港库存平稳略增。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位，高供应下库存压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、 台湾装置检修，后续2月底前后进口压力将有所缓解，3~4月进口压力将缓解。需求端，春节织造负荷和聚酯负荷 下滑至低位，刚需支撑转弱，关注节后恢复情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种： ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-26 EG国内负荷高位，关注新增检修 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3747元/吨（较前一交易日变动+10元/吨，幅度+0.27%），EG华东市场现货价 3658元/吨（较前一交易日变动+10元/吨，幅度+0.27%），EG华东现货基差-90元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-57美元/吨（环比+5美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-994 元/吨（环比+58元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为98.2万吨（环比+4.7万吨）；据CCF数据，2.9~2.23 华东主港实际到港总数15.7万吨，副港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数12.5万吨，副港到港量0.7万吨。 预计主港库存平稳略增。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位，高供应下库存压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、 台湾装置检修，后续2月底前后进口压力将有所缓解，3~4月进口压力将缓解。需求端，春节织造负荷和聚酯负荷 下滑至低位，刚需支撑转弱，关注节后恢复情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨 ...

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年2月26日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂涨超11%，沪锡涨超5%，沪银涨超 2%，铝合金、液化石油气（LPG）、燃料油、沪铝涨超1%。跌幅方面，合成橡胶跌超2%，PX、PTA跌 超1%，聚氯乙烯（PVC）、乙二醇（EG）、烧碱跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 类机 | 卖价 | 法相关于 | 英语 | 英国 | 成交量 | 法联 | 持合量 | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 联赛季2605 M | 187000 | 4510 | 186000 | 187000 | 11.42% | 180 | 6 | | 4510 19160 | 377197 | 160 | | 2 | 护锅2603 M | 423950 | 63 | 423950 | 423980 | 5.76% | ਸ | 5 | 87109 23090 | | 177 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-25 春节期间EG主港小幅累库 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3737元/吨（较前一交易日变动+59元/吨，幅度+1.60%），EG华东市场现货价 3648元/吨（较前一交易日变动+73元/吨，幅度+2.04%），EG华东现货基差-111元/吨（环比+5元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-62美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1052 元/吨（环比-15元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为93.5万吨（环比+3.8万吨）；据CCF数据，2.9~2.23 华东主港实际到港总数15.7万吨，副港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数12.5万吨，副港到港量0.7万吨。 预计主港库存平稳略增。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位，高供应下库存压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、 台湾装置检修，后续2月底前后进口压力将有所缓解，3~4月进口压力将缓解。需求端，春节织造负荷和聚酯负荷 下滑至低位，刚需支撑转弱，关注节后恢复情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,723 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,630 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 0.90%. The spot basis in East China was - 116 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - $55/ton, up $3/ton; the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 923 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 93.5 million tons, up 3.8 million tons. The actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 11 million tons, and 3 million tons at the secondary ports. The planned arrivals from February 9th to 23rd were 18.1 million tons at the main ports and 5.8 million tons at the secondary ports [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level. There is still great pressure to build up inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Satellite plans to switch production in February. Overseas supply pressure will ease around the end of February, but remains high from January to February. There will be a slight inventory draw in March. On the demand side, Spring Festival maintenance is being implemented, and the weaving and polyester loads are declining rapidly [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price and basis in East China, with data sources from Longzhong and CCF [1][5][7] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the gross profit and operating rate of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based ethylene glycol production, with data from Tonghuashun and Longzhong [9][13][15] 3.3 International Price Difference - The report provides the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR of ethylene glycol, sourced from Longzhong [16][19] 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Information on the sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips is presented, with data from CCF [17][20][22] 3.5 Inventory Data - It includes the inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, and Shanghai + Changshu Port, as well as the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume in East China ports, with data from CCF and Longzhong [26][27][30]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory last week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,739 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,635 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton, up $3/ton month-on-month, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month-on-month. The inventory in the East China main port of MEG was 935,000 tons according to CCF and 645,000 tons according to Longzhong, both showing an increase. The actual arrival volume at the main port in East China last week was 110,000 tons, and the planned arrival volume from February 9th to 23rd was 181,000 tons. [1] - On the domestic supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the pressure to accumulate inventory is still high under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February, and attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase. Overseas, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be high from January to February, with a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have accelerated their decline, and the rigid demand support has weakened. [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,739 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,635 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton, up $3/ton month-on-month, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month-on-month. [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The Spring Festival maintenance of downstream industries has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have accelerated their decline, and the rigid demand support has weakened. [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the East China main port of MEG was 935,000 tons according to CCF and 645,000 tons according to Longzhong, both showing an increase. The actual arrival volume at the main port in East China last week was 110,000 tons, and the planned arrival volume from February 9th to 23rd was 181,000 tons. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The EG price is in a low - range, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. The overall fundamentals of EG are still weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. The strategy suggests being cautiously bullish when the price drops to the low - range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3788 yuan/ton (a change of + 21 yuan/ton or + 0.56% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3682 yuan/ton (a change of + 25 yuan/ton or + 0.68% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis of EG was - 105 yuan/ton (a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 908 yuan/ton (a decrease of 55 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rates - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, and the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, with weakening rigid demand support [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 89.7 tons (an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (an increase of 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 13.6 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons. The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EG market is weak before the holiday. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol (EG) remains high, with limited reduction in syngas production load. There is significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas supply is expected to ease in mid - to late February. Demand has weakened as the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been implemented since mid - January, leading to a decline in weaving and polyester loads. Overall, the EG fundamentals are weak, with high inventory accumulation pressure from January to February and potential improvement in March [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day, 0.00% change). The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3657 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, -1.48% change). The spot basis of EG in East China was -100 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was -62 US dollars/ton (down 11 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas EG was -853 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented, resulting in an accelerated decline in weaving and polyester loads, and the support from rigid demand has weakened [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 89.7 tons (up 3.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports in East China last week was 13.6 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports was 2.8 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 12.3 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1] Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the atmosphere in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has fallen back to the previous low - level range. It is advisable to observe market dynamics. - Inter - period: Not recommended - Inter - variety: Not recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened due to macro - external factors, and the EG price has dropped back to the previous low - level range. The EG fundamentals remain weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (down 146 yuan/ton or 3.73% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China EG market was 3712 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan/ton or 2.93% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 51 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 748 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month). The extrusion of the syngas - based load was not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load was at a high level. [1][2] International Spread No relevant content provided. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented. The weaving load and polyester load have declined rapidly, and the support from rigid demand has weakened. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable. There are plans for large Saudi contract vessels to enter the warehouse in early February, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high, but the pressure will ease in mid - to late February. [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the sentiment in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has dropped back to the previous low - level range. Observe the market dynamics. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]