化工日报 | 2025-11-26 EG基差继续下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3873元/吨（较前一交易日变动-11元/吨，幅度-0.28%），EG华东市场现货价 3918元/吨（较前一交易日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.46%），EG华东现货基差23元/吨（环比-9元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-62美元/吨（环比+8美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1049 元/吨（环比+52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+0.0万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为63.3万吨（环比+1.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量2.8万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数9.5万吨，副港到港量1.4万吨，整体中性略偏低，预计库存持稳小降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，部分短流程油化工装置生产压力较大，后续关注其裂 解环节以及乙二醇装置降负可能；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限，短期港口库存预计持稳，但12月上旬仍有沙特 大船抵港计 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-25 伊朗限气影响，EG低位反弹 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3884元/吨（较前一交易日变动+76元/吨，幅度+2.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3900元/吨（较前一交易日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.35%），EG华东现货基差32元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-70美元/吨（环比-9美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1101 元/吨（环比-28元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+0.0万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为63.3万吨（环比+1.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量2.8万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数9.5万吨，副港到港量1.4万吨，整体中性略偏低，预计库存持稳小降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，部分短流程油化工装置生产压力较大，后续关注其裂 解环节以及乙二醇装置降负可能； ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-21 煤价继续下跌，EG增仓下行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3822元/吨（较前一交易日变动-81元/吨，幅度-2.08%），EG华东市场现货价 3876元/吨（较前一交易日变动-49元/吨，幅度-1.25%），EG华东现货基差32元/吨（环比+8元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-60美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-1024 元/吨（环比-30元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为63.3万吨（环比+1.5万吨）。据CCF数据，本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。隆众数据，截至11月20日华东主港地区MEG库存总量63.3万吨,较上一期降低3.46万 吨，周初天气影响下部分码头封航，船期到货有所推迟。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton (down 78 yuan/ton or 1.97% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton or 0.72%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). With the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and the decline in coal prices, EG showed a weak downward trend [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton (down $2/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons). With more arrival plans this week, inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas device changes are limited. Arrival plans around mid - November are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase. On the demand side, polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread strategy is recommended for EG2601 - EG2605, and no cross - variety strategy is provided [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,875 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,979 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$57/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -911 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level [2]. International Price Difference No specific data or analysis on international price differences is provided in the text, only a figure (Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned [19]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons, and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 tons. Arrival plans this week are more, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Around mid - November, arrival plans are still moderately high, and port inventory is expected to gradually increase [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market opened with mixed results, showing significant fluctuations in various commodities, particularly a notable decline in the shipping index. Group 1: Commodity Performance - SC crude oil increased by over 2% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore, fuel oil, and Shanghai tin all saw gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2: Declines in Specific Commodities - The shipping index (集运欧线) dropped by more than 3% [1] - Polysilicon and coking coal fell by over 2% [1] - Coking coal declined nearly 2%, while live pigs, ethylene glycol (EG), and rapeseed meal all decreased by over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of various domestic commodity futures in the night session on November 11, with low sulfur fuel oil (LU) rising nearly 2% and iron ore and fuel oil increasing over 1% [1] - Coking coal experienced a decline of over 2%, while coking coke fell nearly 2%, and both ethylene glycol (EG) and rapeseed meal dropped more than 1% [1]

化工日报 | 2025-11-06 高供应压力下EG延续弱势 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3914元/吨（较前一交易日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.33%），EG华东市场现货价 3982元/吨（较前一交易日变动-13元/吨，幅度-0.33%），EG华东现货基差71元/吨（环比-2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-57美元/吨（环比-9美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-818 元/吨（环比-94元/吨）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为56.2万吨（环比+3.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.9万吨（环比+1.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.25万吨， 副港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.9万吨，副港到港量7.4万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度 累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，后期国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外供应损失依 旧较多，沙特仍有两套以上装置 ...

1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The EG market remains weak under high supply pressure. The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased. According to CCF data, it was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production is at a high level, and overseas supply losses are still significant with limited change in import expectations. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation under high supply, with many production plans, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 3,901 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton (-1.74%) from the previous trading day, and the spot price in the East China market was 3,995 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-1.72%). The spot basis in the East China market was 73 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$48/ton (down $5/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was -724 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread No specific content related to international spread is provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.2 tons (up 3.9 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons). The arrival plan this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Under high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3,970 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,065 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton or 1.12%; the spot basis of EG in East China was 76 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$43/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -658 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons, up 1.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.9 tons, and at the secondary ports are 7.4 tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and future domestic supply is expected to be abundant; overseas, there are still many supply losses, and the import volume is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,065 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was 76 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$43/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -658 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons, up 1.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.9 tons, and at the secondary ports are 7.4 tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Given the high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and with many production plans, port inventories are expected to gradually increase [3]. - Inter - period: Go short on EG2601 and long on EG2605. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided.