化工日报 | 2025-08-27 到港偏少，EG主港库存下降至低位 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4490元/吨（较前一交易日变动-19元/吨，幅度-0.42%），EG华东市场现货价 4552元/吨（较前一交易日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.04%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）51元/吨（环比-47元/吨）。 乙二醇港口库存下降至50万吨附近，且近端到货持续偏少，现货基差走强。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-47美元/吨（环比+2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-21元/吨（环比+38 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为50.0万吨（环比-4.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.8万吨（环比-3.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.1万吨，到港偏少，周度港口 库存去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数5.4万吨，依然偏低，主港库存可能延续去库，另外副港计划到港3.1万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇负荷已回归高位，短期预计高位持稳；海外供应方面，马 来西亚装置重启，8月后进口预期回 ...

化工日报 | 2025-08-22 EG价格坚挺，基差运行平稳 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4473元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.09%），EG华东市场现货价4518 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.36%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）90元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 周四，乙二醇价格重心高位坚挺，基差运行平稳。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-48美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-69元/吨（环比+47 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.7万吨（环比-0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.8万吨（环比-3.7万吨）。本周华东主港计划到港总数5.4万吨，另外副港计划到 港4.3万吨。周四华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量49.78万吨，较本周一降低0.46万吨；较上周四降低3.67万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇合成气制负荷已回归高位，EG总开工回升至70%以上高位 运行；海外供应方面，8月后进口预期回升至65万吨附 ...

化工日报 | 2025-08-21 韩国石化业或削减产能，关注EG成本端影响 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4477元/吨（较前一交易日变动+93元/吨，幅度+2.12%），EG华东市场现货价 4502元/吨（较前一交易日变动+47元/吨，幅度+1.05%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）90元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 在石化产业反内卷消息以及对于韩国石化行业重组的担忧下，周三下午化工板块大幅上涨。当前韩国MEG产能大 多均已停产，目前在运行的仅乐天丽水 1#2#,KPIC 以及道达尔四套装置，共计乙二醇产能在 55 万吨附近，其中 乐天丽水 2#16万吨的MEG于 2024 年 12月底停车，重启待定，KPIC18.5 万吨装置以生产 EO 为主，因此该消息 对EG的直接影响较小，目前影响集中在石脑油裂解装置，市场担忧对成本端乙烯价格产生影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-49美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-116元/吨（环比 +7元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.7万吨（环比-0.6万吨）；根据 ...

原油继续回落，能化延续下跌压力 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：周末特-普阿拉斯加会晤随未直接达成实质协议，但后会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PX 震荡 震荡 空单止盈 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 偏空 空单持有 塑料 震荡 震荡 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 部分止盈，剩余空单继续持有 EG 震荡 偏空 空单持有 橡胶 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏多 偏空 09 空单持有 烧碱 偏空 震荡 寻 15 分钟试空机会 板块观点汇总 后表态相对积极，特朗普未提对俄制裁，俄乌降温趋势短期地缘扰动 减弱，原油重回基本面逻辑，季节性需求拐点临近与 OPEC+增产加速 下原油过剩压力将逐步兑现。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期/跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日日内震荡，下跌路径未改，小时级别上方短期压力 490 一 线，策略上小时周期空单持有。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油小时图 图 1.1：原油 2510 日线图 （二）苯乙烯： 逻辑：供应端最新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral [3] Core View - The EG price is fluctuating without a clear driving force. In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both decreased slightly. The production profit of ethylene - made EG and coal - made syngas EG increased slightly. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly. The domestic supply is on an increasing trend, but overseas device operation is not smooth, and the increase in port inventory is lower than expected. The overall supply - demand contradiction in August is not significant [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in the East China market (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 46 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - made syngas EG was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. Domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Non - coal EO - EG co - production devices have actions/plans to switch from EO to EG, with a moderately high overall load [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons from the previous period. The total actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, and the port inventory increased slightly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory slightly. The balance sheet in August shows a slight inventory accumulation, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 50 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 55.3 tons (up 3.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons (up 5.9 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, with a small increase in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and a small increase in inventory is expected [1] - On the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - based EG production load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq3 has shut down again, and a 750,000 - ton/year plant in Malaysia has restarted unsuccessfully, with the increase in EG imports lower than expected. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. The balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up in August, with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the month, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 50 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The domestic synthetic gas - based EG production load has returned to a high level and can be further increased [2] International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - There was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 55.3 tons (up 3.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons (up 5.9 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, with a small increase in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and a small increase in inventory is expected [1] - The balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up in August, with concentrated arrivals at the beginning of the month, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [2]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,389 yuan/ton (a change of -16 yuan/ton or -0.36% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,455 yuan/ton (a change of -25 yuan/ton or -0.56% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 5 yuan/ton). The ethylene-based EG production profit was -$49/ton (a month-on-month decrease of $3/ton), and the coal-based syngas EG production profit was 42 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 24 yuan/ton). The MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons) according to CCF data and 427,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 48,000 tons) according to Longzhong data. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, with a slight de-stocking of port inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are 138,000 tons, and with concentrated arrivals at secondary ports, the main ports are expected to see inventory accumulation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: On the supply side, domestically, the syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the supply of ocean - going cargo is expected to gradually return to normal. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, relieving the inventory pressure of filament yarns. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. There will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. The port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase in August [3]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish due to weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4]. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Analyzes the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the spot basis in East China [2]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the ethylene - based EG production profit, coal - based syngas EG production profit, and the overall load of ethylene glycol production [2]. International Price Difference - Analyzes the international price difference between the US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Considers the sales and production of filament yarns and short - fiber yarns, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip [21][23][25]. Inventory Data - Focuses on the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China, including the inventory data from different sources, actual and planned arrivals, and the inventory situation of different ports [2][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of EG followed the decline of coking coal, with the closing price of the EG main contract at 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market at 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China continued to decline. According to CCF, it was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period) [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a weakening pressure on the fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The trading strategy is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side due to the weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal, and wait for coking coal to digest the over - increase of last week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 68 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO - EG co - production plants have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high [2]. International Price Difference No information provided. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal carried out centralized replenishment, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period). Affected by the typhoon, the arrival of ships was postponed, and the inventory continued to decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unmentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The decline in coking coal prices led to a callback in EG prices. The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China decreased slightly last week. The actual arrivals at the main ports were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value. This week, the planned arrivals are 156,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is at a relatively high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of weakening fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, focusing on macro - sentiment changes, especially the Sino - US tariff policy changes during July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 58 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread - Unmentioned in the text about specific data, only a figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is provided [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price - increase effect, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, significantly alleviating the filament inventory pressure. The polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 156,000 tons [1].